Global Catastrophe Recap - Aon

Global Catastrophe Recap February 2021

Global Catastrophe Recap: February 2021 2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 3

United States 4

Remainder of North America (Non-U.S.) 4

South America 5

Europe 5

Middle East 5

Africa 6

Asia 6

Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands) 7

Appendix: Updated 2021 Data 8

Additional Report Details 10

Contact Information 11


Executive Summary United States faces record-setting winter weather-related insured loss following prolonged Polar Vortex event

Powerful offshore magnitude-7.1 earthquake prompts nearly 90,000 insurance claims in Japan

Flooding rains associated with Cyclone Niran leaves economic damage bill nearing USD200 million in Australia

139 hours Consecutive hours spent below freezing in Dallas, Texas; ending the afternoon of February 19

-51°F / -46°C Station record low temperature set on February 13 in Bottineau, North Dakota; previous record was in 1893

0.5 mi / 0.8 km Length of the rupture on Nanda Ghunti in India, which resulted in a major flash flood in the Uttarakhand state

7.1 Magnitude of the February 13 EQ which struck offshore near Japan’s Fukushima Prefecture; 4,700 homes damaged

Drought Earthquake EU Windstorm Flooding Severe Weather Tropical Cyclone Wildfire Winter Weather Other


United States Date Event Location

Deaths Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/08-02/12 Winter Weather Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 9 Thousands 10s of millions

02/12-02/20 Winter Weather Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northwest 70+ 100s of thousands+ 10+ billion

02/25-02/26 Severe Weather Texas 0 Thousands 100+ million

02/25-03/01 Flooding Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 1 Thousands 100+ million

An Arctic outbreak which settled across portions of the central United States from February 8-12 aided in widespread impacts from cold and a notable ice storm. Some of the hardest-hit areas included Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas. Total economic losses were estimated into the tens of millions (USD).

An unprecedented stretch of winter weather conditions impacted nearly every section of the United States during the period from February 12-20. The Polar Vortex generated record-breaking cold temperatures which extended as far south as the U.S. / Mexico border. Concurrently, a series of low-pressure systems produced rounds of hazardous snow, sleet, freezing rain, ice, and severe thunderstorms with impacts spanning from Washington state to the Mid-Atlantic. The storms resulted in millions of power outages, transportation disruptions, extensive property damage (particularly in the Southern Plains due to burst pipes) and impacts to the agricultural sector. The total direct economic damage cost (and net-loss business interruption) was expected to well exceed USD10 billion. There will be a prolonged period of loss development, with this stretch becoming the costliest for the winter weather peril on record for the U.S. insurance industry.

Thunderstorms and large hail impacted portions of northern Texas on February 25-26. Of note, ping pong-ball sized hail was reported in the densely populated Dallas suburb of McKinney (Collin County). Total economic damage was expected to exceed USD100 million; most of which will be covered by insurance.

Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and severe weather generated flooding across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys from February 25 through March 1. Parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia were most affected. Impacts were compounded by localized severe weather, including large hail, straight-line winds, and isolated tornadoes. Total economic losses were estimated to approach USD100 million. A large portion of the residential flood damage was expected to be uninsured given low National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up.

Remainder of North America (Non-U.S.) Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/12-02/20 Winter Weather Mexico 12+ Unknown 100s of millions+

The Arctic blast associated with the Polar Vortex which significantly impacted the United States reached into northern Mexico, peaking between February 14-18. Millions of power outages were reported, which led to lost productivity at factories across Mexico’s northern states – particularly Chihuahua. In Tamaulipas, hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops were affected by abnormally cold and icy conditions. The crop damage alone was estimated into the hundreds of millions (USD).


South America Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/12-02/20 Flooding Brazil 0 10,000+ 10s of millions

02/12-02/20 Flooding Peru 1+ 4,000+ 10s of millions

Heavy rains and severe flooding affected at least 130,000 people in the Brazilian state of Acre from February 12-20. A state of disaster was declared across 10 municipalities. Total economic losses were anticipated to reach into the tens of millions (USD).

Severe flooding and landslides impacted the Madre de Dios, Ucayali, Loreto, Junín, and Cusco regions of Peru from February 12-20. A state of emergency was declared in Madre de Dios, where floodwaters damaged 4,000 homes. One person was confirmed dead, though nine others were left missing.

Europe Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/01-02/10 Flooding France 0 Thousands 10s of millions

02/01-02/15 Winter Weather Western, Central & Northern Europe N/A Unknown 100s of millions

Southwestern and northern France experienced notable flooding in the first half of February as multiple rivers registered notable crests. Initial estimates from insurers did not suggest a significant industry event on a national scale, yet a state of natural disaster was declared for 19 municipalities, and preliminary assessment of total economic loss was in the tens of millions EUR.

A notable Arctic outbreak with plummeting temperatures and heavy snowfall affected large parts of Europe in the first half of February. Apart from actual physical damage due to excessive snow pressure, multiple countries experienced transportation disruption and business interruption costs.

Middle East Date Event Location Deaths Structures/

Claims Economic Loss

(USD)

02/01-02/02 Flooding Turkey 0 3,000+ 70+ million

02/17 Earthquake Iran 2 5,800+ Millions

Notable flash flooding occurred in Izmir province of Turkey, and Evros in Greece on February 1-2. Intense rainfall, reaching as high as 149 millimeters (5.9 inches), resulted in significant urban flooding in Izmir and caused hundreds of inundated vehicles, residential properties, and businesses. The Turkish insurance association noted approximately 3,000 claims.

A magnitude-5.4 earthquake struck near Sisakht in the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province of Iran. At least two people died, and 60 others were injured. Local officials noted that 5,800 structures were damaged or destroyed.


Africa Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/01-02/28 Flooding Morocco 28 Hundreds Millions

01/17-02/15 Flooding South Africa 31 Hundreds Millions

Morocco experienced periods of heavy rainfall during the month of February. Urban flooding in Tangier on February 28 resulted in the deaths of 28 people. Local media reported inundated homes and vehicles across the city.

Parts of South Africa endured continued flooding during the first half of February following rainfall brought by Tropical Cyclone Eloise at the end of January. Further rains in February caused additional flooding. Among the worst affected was the area of Mbombela in Mpumalanga province. At least 31 people were killed.

Asia Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

01/01-02/28 Drought China N/A N/A 85+ million

02/07-02/08 Flooding India 205 Thousands 210+ million

02/13 Earthquake Japan 1 88,000+ 100s of millions

02/14 Flooding Indonesia 19 Dozens Negligible

02/15-02/19 Winter Weather Japan 0 Hundreds 10s of millions

02/19-02/23 Flooding Indonesia 14 8,600+ 50+ million

02/20-02/24 Tropical Strom Dujuan Philippines 5 2,300+ 10+ million

02/22-02/25 Winter Weather China 1 Unknown 50+ million

02/23-02/26 Flooding Indonesia 1 9,200+ Millions

Below-average precipitation triggered severe drought conditions in southern sections of China, notably the provinces of Guangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan. Nearly 68,000 hectares (168,000 acres) of cropland was affected. Direct economic losses in February alone were estimated at CNY376 million (USD58 million).

A major flash flooding event, likely a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), occurred on February 7-8 in India’s state of Uttarakhand. A total of 205 people were confirmed or presumed dead as of February 24. Thousands of structures and four hydroelectric power plants were damaged. The economic loss was listed at INR15 billion (USD206 million).

A magnitude-7.1 (USGS) earthquake struck off the coast of Japan’s Fukushima Prefecture on February 13, resulting in one death and 187 injuries. As many as 4,700 residential structures were damaged or destroyed. Total economic losses were expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). The General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) noted that nearly 88,000 insurance claims had already been filed.

Locally heavy precipitation in Indonesia’s East Java Province resulted in a large landslide in Ngetos Village of Nganjuk Regency on February 14. At least 19 people were left dead or missing. Dozens of homes were damaged.

A winter weather outbreak spawned a period of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions in the northern and western prefectures of Japan between February 15-18. Hundreds of homes and other structures were damaged.

Heavy seasonal precipitation prompted rivers to overflow on Java Island, leading to inundation of 8,600 residential structures, between February 19-23. Fourteen people were left dead or missing. Heavy impacts to infrastructure and agriculture were reported.


Tropical Storm Dujuan came ashore near Batag Island in the Philippines’ Northern Samar on February 22 and brought heavy rainfall and damaging winds. At least 2,300 homes were damaged. The total economic loss was estimated at USD10 million.

Winter weather impacted central sections of China from February 22-25. The economic loss, mostly due to agricultural impacts, was listed at CNY320 million (USD50 million).

Torrential seasonal rainfall prompted flash flooding in Semarang City in Indonesia’s Central Java from February 23-26. Local officials noted that 9,200 homes were inundated.

Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands) Date Event Location Deaths Structures/


(USD) 02/01-02/05 Wildfire Australia 0 730+ 75+ million

02/03-02/08 Flooding Australia 0 Hundreds 10s of Millions

02/25-03/04 Tropical Cyclone Niran Australia 0 Thousands 200+ million

Multiple wildfires were ignited in the Perth suburbs of Western Australia from February 1-7. The fires burned approximately 10,600 hectares (26,200 acres) of land and destroyed at least 81 homes in addition to other structures. The Insurance Council of Australia declared an emergency and noted that more than 730 claims had been filed. Insured losses were listed at AUD60 million (USD46 million); the economic loss was even higher.

Tropical moisture along Australia’s west coast prompted a “once-in-a decade” level of rainfall and resultant flooding from February 3-8. Notable flood damage was cited to local infrastructure and agriculture as economic damage reached into the millions (USD).

Tropical Cyclone Niran meandered near the eastern cost of Australia, resulting in notable wind- and flood-related impacts across the coastal areas of Queensland and New South Wales from February 25 through March 4. Thousands of homes, in addition to other private and public infrastructure were damaged. Economic losses due to crop damage alone was listed at AUD200 million (USD155 million).


Appendix: Updated 2021 Data

United States

Date Event Location Deaths Structures/


(USD) 01/11-01/13 Severe Weather Northwest 2 38,000+ 525+ million

01/17-01/20 Severe Weather California 0 24,000+ 350+ million

01/24-01/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, South 1 6,000+ 120+ million

01/24-01/29 Flooding West 2 75,000+ 1.5+ billion

01/30-02/03 Winter Weather Midwest, Northeast 4 10,000+ 100+ million

Remainder of North America (Non-U.S.)

Date Event Location Deaths Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

01/12-01/14 Severe Weather Canada 0 7,200+ 126+ million

01/19-01/20 Severe Weather Canada 0 3,100+ 50+ million

South America


Economic Loss (USD)

01/04 Severe Weather Bolivia 4 Thousands Millions

01/16-01/20 Flooding Bolivia 1 1,500+ 10+ million

01/18 Earthquake Argentina 0 33,000+ 250+ million

01/21-01/24 Flooding Brazil 2 Thousands 25+ million

01/29-02/01 Severe Weather Chile 0 Hundreds 175+ million

01/31-02/01 Flooding Paraguay 10 Thousands Millions

Europe


Economic Loss (USD)

01/06-01/12 Flooding Southeastern Europe 0 2,500+ 10s of millions

01/08-01/12 Storm Filomena Spain 4 Thousands 1.8+ billion

01/13-03/31 Winter Weather Switzerland, Austria 17 Hundreds 60+ million

01/20-01/21 Windstorm Christoph Western Europe 0 Thousands 455+ million

01/21-01/22 Windstorm Hortense France, Spain 0 Thousands 90+ million

01/23-01/31 Earthquake Spain 0 3,400+ 10s of millions

Middle East

Date Event Location Deaths Structures/


(USD)

01/14-01/27 Flooding Syria 1 Unknown Unknown


Africa


Economic Loss (USD)

01/19-01/21 Cyclone Eloise Southern Africa 25 35,000+ 10s of millions

Asia


Economic Loss (USD)

12/31-01/05 Flooding Indonesia 3 2,500+ Unknown

01/01-01/04 Severe Weather Philippines 9 550+ 10s of millions

01/06-01/08 Winter Weather China 0 Hundreds 155+ million

01/07-01/12 Winter Weather Japan 23 1,000+ 100s of Millions

01/08-01/12 Winter Weather Taiwan 18 N/A Unknown

01/08-01/24 Severe Weather Philippines 3 3,500+ 25+ million


01/14 Earthquake Indonesia 108 7,100+ 60+ million

01/14-01/17 Winter Weather China 0 Hundreds 115+ million


Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands)


Economic Loss (USD)

01/03-01/07 Cyclone Imogen Australia 0 Hundreds 10s of millions

01/30-01/31 Cyclone Ana Fiji 1 Thousands Millions


Additional Report Details TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone Fatality estimates as reported by public news media sources and official government agencies. Structures defined as any building – including barns, outbuildings, mobile homes, single or multiple family dwellings, and commercial facilities – that is damaged or destroyed by winds, earthquakes, hail, flood, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural-occurring phenomenon. Claims defined as the number of claims (which could be a combination of homeowners, commercial, auto and others) reported by various public and private insurance entities through press releases or various public media outlets. Damage estimates are obtained from various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies, financial institution press releases and official government agencies. Damage estimates are determined based on various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies, financial institution press releases, and official government agencies. Economic loss totals are separate from any available insured loss estimates. An insured loss is the portion of the economic loss covered by public or private insurance entities. In rare instances, specific events may include modeled loss estimates determined from utilizing Impact Forecasting’s suite of catastrophe model products.


Contact Information Adam Podlaha Head of Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Gaurav Srivastava Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

Steve Bowen Head of Catastrophe Insight Director & Meteorologist Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Brian Kerschner Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]






About Aon

Aon plc (NYSE: AON) is a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions. Our 50,000 colleagues in 120 countries empower results for clients by using proprietary data and analytics to deliver insights that reduce volatility and improve performance.

© Aon plc 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein and the statements expressed are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information and use sources we consider reliable, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

Copyright © by Impact Forecasting®

No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com.

Copyright © by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc.

http://www.impactforecasting.com/

Global Catastrophe Recap - Aon

Documents