Global Beverage Forecasts - SP.pdf · Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and Cider Spirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavored Alcoholic Beverages (FABs)) Data extracted

2014 Cycle

West Europe

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Global Beverage Forecasts

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West Europe

Measures: Volume (million litres), Population (millions), Litres Per CapitaPopulation Source: USCB; Local Statistics; Timetric Forecasts; Canadean

Geographic CoverageWEST EUROPE: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, (Republic of)Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Other West Europe

Regional BalancersFor regions where it has not been possible to generate total market volumes by profiling eachindividual country, we have taken a value judgement to arrive at a balancing “Others” figure.

Product CoverageMain beverage category groups: Soft (standard), Soft (extended), Beer, Spirits (standard), Spirits (extended) and Wines.Individual beverage categories within each main group are as follows:Soft (standard): Packaged Water, Carbonates, Juice (100% pure juice), Nectars (products

Hot Coffee, Hot Tea

Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Tea, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Coffee, Sports Drinks, Energy Drinks. Packaged Water excludes all water sold in large containers of >10 litresSoft (extended): Bulk/HOD Water, White Milk, Flavored Milk, Soymilk, Drinking Yogurt,Fermented Milk, Evaporated Milk, Condensed Milk, Grain Nut Rice and Seed Milk Alternative Drinks,

Contents & NotesPlease note that these forecasts were produced in February 2014 and supersede all previous forecasts may differ from forecasts previously published in our Soft Drinks and Beer Market Insights reports and Quarterly Beverage Tracker (QBT).

Data Horizon: 1999-2013P (Provisional), 2014F-2019F (Forecast)

This is recorded as a separate entity, specific to the Region to which it belongs

with a 25-99% juice content), Still Drinks (<25% juice content), Squash/Syrups, Fruit Powders,

Spirits (extended): Flavored Alcoholic Beverages (FABs), Fortified Wine, Rice Wine and SakeWines: Wine (Still and Sparkling combined)

Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and CiderSpirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavored Alcoholic Beverages (FABs))

Data extracted from Canadean Ltd's Global Beverage Forecasts Wisdom databaseAll data is owned by Canadean Ltd and may not be passed to a third party without written consent from Canadean Ltd

West Europe1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Volume (Millions Litres)All Categories TotalAll Soft Total

TotalPackaged WaterCarbonatesJuiceNectarsStill DrinksSquash/SyrupsFruit PowdersIced/RTD Tea DrinksIced/RTD Coffee DrinksSports DrinksEnergy DrinksTotalBulk/HOD WaterWhite MilkFlavoured MilkDrinking YogurtFermented MilkSoymilkEvaporated MilkCondensed MilkGrain, Nut, Rice and Seed Milk AlternativesHot CoffeeHot Tea

All Alcoholic TotalTotalBeerSorghum BeerCider

Spirits (Standard) TotalSpirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine

Spirits (Extended) TotalFlavoured Alcoholic BeveragesFortified WineSakeRice WineTotalWine

Population (Millions)

Litres per CapitaAll Categories TotalAll Soft Total

TotalPackaged WaterCarbonatesJuiceNectarsStill DrinksSquash/SyrupsFruit PowdersIced/RTD Tea DrinksIced/RTD Coffee DrinksSports DrinksEnergy DrinksTotalBulk/HOD WaterWhite MilkFlavored MilkDrinking YogurtFermented MilkSoymilkEvaporated MilkCondensed MilkGrain, Nut, Rice and Seed Milk Alternative DrinksHot CoffeeHot Tea

All Alcoholic TotalTotalBeerSorghum BeerCiderTotalSpirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine

Spirits (Extended) TotalFlavored Alcoholic BeveragesFortified WineSakeRice Wine

Wines Wine

Beer

Spirits (Standard)

Soft (Standard)

Soft (Extended)

Beer

Wines

Soft (Standard)

Soft (Extended)

Data extracted from Canadean Ltd's Global Beverage Forecasts Wisdom databaseAll data is owned by Canadean Ltd and may not be passed to a third party without written consent from Canadean Ltd

Austria1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Volume (Millions Litres)All Categories TotalAll Soft Total

TotalPackaged WaterCarbonatesJuiceNectarsStill DrinksSquash/SyrupsFruit PowdersIced/RTD Tea DrinksIced/RTD Coffee DrinksSports DrinksEnergy DrinksTotalBulk/HOD WaterWhite MilkFlavoured MilkDrinking YogurtFermented MilkSoymilkEvaporated MilkCondensed MilkGrain, Nut, Rice and Seed Milk AlternativesHot CoffeeHot Tea

All Alcoholic TotalTotalBeerSorghum BeerCider

Spirits (Standard) TotalSpirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine

Spirits (Extended) TotalFlavoured Alcoholic BeveragesFortified WineSakeRice WineTotalWine

Population (Millions)

Litres per CapitaAll Categories TotalAll Soft Total

TotalPackaged WaterCarbonatesJuiceNectarsStill DrinksSquash/SyrupsFruit PowdersIced/RTD Tea DrinksIced/RTD Coffee DrinksSports DrinksEnergy DrinksTotalBulk/HOD WaterWhite MilkFlavored MilkDrinking YogurtFermented MilkSoymilkEvaporated MilkCondensed MilkGrain, Nut, Rice and Seed Milk Alternative DrinksHot CoffeeHot Tea

All Alcoholic TotalTotalBeerSorghum BeerCiderTotalSpirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine

Spirits (Extended) TotalFlavored Alcoholic BeveragesFortified WineSakeRice Wine

Wines Wine

Beer

Spirits (Standard)

Soft (Standard)

Soft (Extended)

Beer

Wines

Soft (Standard)

Soft (Extended)

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Global Beverage Forecasts – February 2014

Sample Pages Comprehensive Topline Analysis of All Commercial Beverages Trends and Forecasts

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Global Beverage Forecasts – February 2014

Sample Pages Comprehensive Topline Analysis of All Commercial Beverages Trends and Forecasts Copyright Information contained in Canadean reports is confidential and for use only by clients of Canadean with valid contracts. All copyright in these publications is reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without prior permission of the copyright owners. Liability Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information contained in this report is accurate and that opinions expressed are sound, Canadean Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors, omissions or incorrect information or for any loss or consequential losses arising as a result of decisions taken based on the contents of this report. Canadean prints its reports on 100% recycled paper using 80% post-consumer waste.

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Disclaimer No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Canadean. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Canadean delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Canadean can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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Global Beverage Forecasts 5 All Commercial Beverages/Feb 2014 ©Canadean. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied

Table of Contents (Please note that contents vary per country report)

MARKET COMMENTARY ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Packaged Water ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Bulk/HOD Water ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Carbonates ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 Juice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Nectars ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Still Drinks ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Squash/Syrups ......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Fruit Powders ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 Iced/RTD Tea Drinks ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Sports Drinks ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Energy Drinks ........................................................................................................................................................... 8 Dairy Drinks .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Hot Tea ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Hot Coffee ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Beer .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Cider ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Wines ...................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Spirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine ........................................................................................................................ 10 Fortified Wine .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages .............................................................................................................................. 10 Sorghum Beer ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Sake ........................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Rice Wine ............................................................................................................................................................... 11

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6 Global Beverage Forecasts ©Canadean. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied All Commercial Beverages/ Feb-2014

Region

Country

MARKET COMMENTARY

Packaged Water

Packaged water consumption increased by close to 2% in 2013. Growth was driven by the higher weather temperatures experienced throughout the year, with packaged water a relatively seasonal product. Many consumers have also adapted healthier lifestyles, which has had a positive impact upon beverages such as packaged water.

The category is forecast to grow by a further 2% in 2014, and by a similar rate up until 2019. Consumers are expected to become even more health conscious, which will further drive growth within the packaged water category.

Bulk/HOD Water

Bulk/HOD water consumption increased by 1% in 2013. Growth was attributed to the higher temperatures recorded throughout the year, as well as increased consumption in offices and institutions.

In the forecast period bulk/HOD water consumption is expected to become even more prevalent in offices and institutions. Both locations are anticipated to increase the availability of bulk/HOD water due to the improving economy. Volumes are expected to expand as more and more consumers become health conscious. This should lead to 1% growth in 2014, with growth rates expanding to 4% by the end of the forecast period.

Carbonates

The carbonates category performed significantly better than the previous year, with the international players Coca-Cola and PepsiCo at the forefront of this growth of over 4% relative to 2012. Various marketing activities including price discounts and multi-pack offers were key drivers for growth. The category was also boosted by the improved weather conditions throughout the year which promoted growth, while increased consumer purchasing power enhanced consumption.

A further 3% growth is forecast for the category in 2014, with international companies again expected to be the significant driver. These companies have the ability to invest large amounts into marketing, with local companies not having the same financial capability. A 3% CAGR is expected throughout the forecast period, with the improving economy enabling consumers to enjoy soft drinks and therefore driving growth.

Juice

The consumption of juice increased by over 2% in 2013. Volumes have dropped significantly in recent years, but consumers are now beginning to purchase more products within the category. However, consumption has not yet reached pre-crisis volume levels. Price discounts were offered in many retail chains which attracted consumers.

The category is expected to have a CAGR of 4% during the forecast period. Increased disposable income

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enables consumers to enjoy drinks such as juice that are comparatively more expensive. In addition, producers are likely to launch new products, which will further enhance growth.

Nectars

The nectars category performed extremely positively in 2013, with 5% growth reported. Price discounts of up to 20% lured consumers to purchase products, rather than alternatives from the still drinks category.

A 3% CAGR is expected throughout the forecast period. As the economy further stabilizes, some consumers will purchase alternative products such as juice, which are perceived to many as healthier. However at the same time, the category will continue to benefit from other consumers purchasing nectars as a replacement for still drinks. Producers are also expected to introduce new flavor mixes, which will further attract consumers to the category.

Still Drinks

A 5% decline in consumption was reported in the still drinks category in 2013, with many consumers instead purchasing discounted nectars products. Still drinks in PET bottles performed particularly badly, as they are considered low cost and low quality products. However the decline in volume was significantly lower than that of 2012. This was attributed to the higher temperatures recorded in 2013, especially in the summer months, where still drinks are a popular product to conquer thirst. Furthermore, new products were introduced to the market, with Cido Frutto introducing a new packaging design and flavor which attracted consumers.

A negative 2% CAGR is expected throughout the forecast period, with some consumers expected to lose interest in the category. As disposable incomes increase, many consumers are anticipated to purchase more expensive, higher juice content products, which therefore has a negative impact upon the still drinks category.

Squash/Syrups

The squash/syrups category experienced a slight drop in volume in 2013 (1%). The category is not well developed, with the few players in the market engaging in little to no marketing activities.

The category is expected to perform relatively flatly throughout the forecast period, with marginal growth from 2015. By this point, new products are expected to have been introduced to the market which will increase consumption. However, as disposable income increases, many consumers are expected to purchase more expensive soft drinks, which will limit future growth.

Fruit Powders

Fruit powders experienced a 2% decline in volume in 2013, with products perceived by many as unhealthy. The category is relatively niche, with a loyal consumer group purchasing products.

Although there will be a further 1% decline in 2014, thereafter the category is expected to remain fairly stable, with no significant fluctuations in volume. The loyal consumer group will maintain existing volumes, with any new products introduced to the market stabilizing consumption.

Iced/RTD Tea Drinks

Iced/rtd tea drinks experienced 1% growth in 2013, with consumption finally beginning to recover from the

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significant decline experienced in recent years. There are only two major brands available in the market, Nestea and Lipton. Both these brands competed against one another by offering price discounts, which drove consumption. Other drivers of the category's return to growth included the higher weather temperatures and increased consumer purchasing power.

The category is expected to grow by a further 1% in 2014, with growth anticipated to gradually develop throughout the forecast period. International players are expected to lead the category and continue to attract consumers with price promotions.

Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks

Sports Drinks

The consumption of sports drinks increased by 2% in 2013. The leading brand, Vichy Vivasport continued to promote growth, although at a significantly lower rate than when the brand was first introduced to the market in 2011. Other drivers of growth included higher weather temperatures and more consumers leading healthy lifestyles.

The category is forecast to experience 1% growth year on year throughout the forecast period. Growth is not expected to significantly increase considering the category is already at a record high volume following the introduction of the Vichy Vivasport brand. Instead growth will be driven by more consumers becoming health conscious, which will lead to increased consumption throughout the forecast period.

Energy Drinks

Consumption of energy drinks increased by 4% in 2013. Growth was driven by new product developments and price discounts. Maxima launched its Private Label brand, ZET Energy, in both a 100cl PET and 25cl can format. In addition, Monster introduced its flavor Monster Rehab. Price remained the major determinant of consumption, with many brands competing against one another by offering price discounts.

A further 5% growth is predicted in 2014. Young consumers are particularly attracted by the catchy packaging and price discounts offered by the category, which will support consumption. However, growth is expected to decrease to only 2% by 2015 and the remainder of the forecast period, partly because the category has already reached record high volumes. As of 2014, energy drinks are not permitted to be advertised to those under the age of 18. In addition the government is currently discussing whether to forbid the sale of energy drinks to those aged under 18, although many doubt legislation will come into force. As this age group are large consumers of energy drinks, this would have the potential to severely impact volume sales.

Dairy Drinks

White milk consumption increased by 1% in 2013. Slightly lower prices for products were the main driver of growth. The category is considered a commodity good, and therefore its volume fluctuations mostly depend on changes in population or price. With reduced prices, consumers tend to purchase products in large packaging sizes, therefore increasing volumes consumed. This is likely to result in a fairly flat performance throughout 2014 and the forecast period, with 1% growth predicted year-on-year.

Consumption of flavored milk increased by 1% in 2013. Improved consumer purchasing power boosted consumption, while higher temperatures also had an impact, as products are relatively seasonable. As the economy is expected to improve, this should lead to higher growth rates within the flavored milk category

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throughout the forecast period.

Drinking yogurt and fermented milk increased by 7% and 2% respectively in 2013. Good weather conditions were the major driver for growth, with both products highly dependent on this variable. Growth also stemmed from consumers being able to spend more on such items due to the improved financial situation. The drinking yogurt category also benefitted from Vilkyskiu Pienine launching new products. The drinking yogurt category is forecast to grow by 5% and fermented milk by 4% in 2014. Increased disposable incomes will continue to drive growth in the forecast years. However, the growth of fermented milk is expected to largely diminish by 2016. By this point volumes will have recovered from the negative affects of the economic downturn and be at a record high level.

Soymilk consumption remained steady in 2013, with the category supported by a small loyal group of consumers. Soymilk is regarded by many as a niche product, and therefore a relatively flat performance is expected throughout the forecast period.

Both evaporated milk and condensed milk are regarded by many consumers as outdated products, and therefore declined in 2013. These category's suffer from a lack of product development, with a loyal consumer group base maintaining a relatively small volume.

Hot Tea

A 2% growth rate was reported in the hot tea category in 2013. Hot tea has a low price per liter, and therefore is particularly popular amongst those consumers with low disposable incomes, which supported the category's growth. In addition, consumption in the horeca sector improved, further supporting consumption.

As consumers disposable income is increasing, further growth in the category is likely to be limited. The category is expected to perform relatively flatly throughout the forecast period with 1% year on year growth.

Hot Coffee

The hot coffee category recorded a 2% growth in 2013. Higher volumes were attributed to increased tourism and higher rates of consumption in horeca channels.

The category is forecast to grow by 2% year on year throughout 2014 and the forecast period. As with 2013, growth will be driven by higher rates of consumption in horeca channels and increased numbers of tourists.

Beer

The beer category witnessed a further 5% decline in 2013. The main driver of this negative growth, was legislation that came into force at the beginning of 2013. Sales of beer in PET packaging sizes larger than 100cl were forbidden, while sales of beer with an alcohol content higher than 7.5% were banned. Consequently, many consumers who previously purchased lower cost, strong beer in large PET bottles, instead purchased other alcoholic beverages. The declining population also had a negative impact upon the consumption of beer. Many consumers also began purchasing premium brand beers, rather than simply mainstream or discount alternatives.

The category is expected to decline by a further 2% in 2014, with the legislation introduced in 2013 expected to further hinder consumption. However, from 2015, the category will begin to recover and remain stable for the remainder of the forecast period. This is because as the economy improves, consumers are expected to purchase beer more often.

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Cider

As with beer, cider volumes were negatively impacted by the same legislation introduced in 2013, resulting in a 2% decline for the year. Sales of cider in PET packaging above 100cl were forbidden, while cider with an alcoholic content of more than 7.5% was also banned at the beginning of 2013.

The category is expected to further decline in 2014 (1%), with the category likely to again be impacted by the legislation introduced in 2013. However the category is expected to return to positive growth by 2015. Producers are expected to launch new flavors, which will particularly attract young consumers to the category.

Wines

The wine category experienced over 5% growth in 2013. Following the legislation which negatively impacted the beer and cider category's at the beginning of the year, many consumers purchased wine as an alternative product.

The category is expected to perform strongly again in 2014 with 5% growth, as some consumers are expected to continue purchasing wine over beer. In addition, increased disposable incomes will enable consumers to enjoy wine in on-premise channels, and also at home during meals more regularly. Therefore a CAGR of 2% is expected throughout the forecast period.

Spirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine

The spirits category remained fairly stable in 2013, with only a marginal decline in consumption. The illegal consumption of spirits is a significant issue within the country, inhibiting the category from recording significant growth. This includes the consumption of locally produced drinks (especially in rural areas) and also illegal imports. Legally consumed spirits are particularly expensive, therefore driving the illegal consumption.

Spirits are forecast to decline by approaching 1% in 2014. As with 2013, the category's decline is attributed to spirits being regarded by many as an expensive beverage. However the category is expected to resume positive growth in 2015 and the remainder of the the forecast period. Increased disposable incomes will enable consumers to purchase more expensive alcoholic drinks, including spirits such as brandy and whiskey.

Fortified Wine

Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages

Attracting consumers with various flavor mixes, FAB's recorded a nearly 3% increase in volume in 2013. The category also benefitted from some consumers purchasing FAB's as an alternative to beer and cider throughout the year.

The category is expected to grow by over 1% in 2014, as FAB's continue to attract consumers with various flavor mixes but not at the same rate as in 2013. Some consumers may continue to purchase FAB's in the forecast period as an alternative alcoholic beverage to beer and cider, which will also promote growth. New products introduced to the market, after the successes or failures of those launched in 2013-2014 are accessed, will also support the category.

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Sorghum Beer

Sake

Rice Wine

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Global Beverage Forecasts – Methodology The first stage in creating the forecasts is gathering input from trade interviews undertaken by the Canadean beverage researchers in each local market. This is designed to provide a medium term (one to two year) view of expected volumes from leading manufacturers by main beverage category. Canadean’s researchers also analyze the back data to create a longer range momentum forecast, weighted to the most recent period. Specific allowance is made for the effects of the current global environment using an analysis of previous economic dips and their effect on beverage consumption. 83 markets are researched biannually. In 43 of these, additional quarterly research takes place. As well as providing an ongoing check on volumes, the quarterly research also tracks industry confidence levels. Our beverage analysts then validate this forecast in a number of ways:

• Ensuring forecasts are within the recent range of market/category change • Volume forecasts are aligned with forecast changes in GDP • Forecasts fit with data on industry confidence levels

Countries not covered by Canadean’s ‘on the ground’ research are amalgamated under ‘others’ in the respective regions: Countries included in ‘Others’ by Region

Africa Asia Australasia East Europe

Latin America

Middle East & North Africa

West Europe

Angola Liberia Afghanistan American Samoa Albania Cuba Algeria Cyprus Benin Madagascar Armenia Cook Islands Kosovo Montserrat Iraq Faroe Islands Botswana Malawi Azerbaijan Fiji Moldova Caribbean Israel Greenland Burkina Faso Mali Bangladesh French Polynesia Montenegro Libya Iceland Burundi Mauritania Bhutan Guam Morocco Luxembourg Cameroon Mauritius Brunei Kiribati Syria Malta Cape Verde Mozambique Burma (Myanmar) Nauru Yemen Central African Rep Namibia Cambodia New Caledonia Chad Niger Georgia Niue Comoros Reunion Kyrgyzstan Norfolk Islands Congo (Brazzaville) Rwanda Laos Pacific Islands Congo (Zaire) Sao Tome Macau Papua New Guinea Djibouti Senegal Maldives Samoa Equatorial Guinea Seychelles Mongolia Solomon Islands Eritrea Sierra Leone Nepal Tonga Ethiopia Somalia North Korea Tuvalu Gabon Sudan Sri Lanka Vanuatu Gambia Swaziland Tajikistan Ghana Tanzania Turkmenistan Guinea Togo Uzbekistan Guinea Bissau Uganda Ivory Coast Zambia Kenya Zimbabwe Lesotho

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Regional balancers are created by taking the average regional per capita of ‘known researched markets’ for a category, multiplying it by the population of an ‘unknown market’ and then multiplying the result by a percentage share. The percentage shares used have previously been estimated by Canadean’s Beverage Consultants. The volumes generated for each ‘unknown market’ are then added together to reach a total ‘Others’ balancer for each category and ultimately the regional and globally market totals.

Global Beverage Forecasts - SP.pdf · Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and Cider Spirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavored Alcoholic Beverages (FABs)) Data extracted

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