GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX - Ambasciata d'Italia - …€¦ · · 2017-06-22The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index International rankings have a significant role in:
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GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEXThe true barometer of a country's attractiveness
Key results of the project
Strictly Confidential
The European House - Ambrosetti has been named, for the third year, best Private Think Tank in Italy and4th in Europe in the University of Pennsylvania’s “Global Go To Think Tanks Report”
Lorenzo TavazziHead of the Scenario and Intelligence Division
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The European House – Ambrosetti
The European House –Ambrosetti (TEH-A), established in 1965, is a consultancy firm headquartered in Italy and with offices world-wide
Boston
Istanbul Beijing
Shanghai
Tokyo
ItalyAnconaBologna Milan NaplesRomeTurinTriesteVerona
Europe
Berlin
Brussels
London
Madrid
Seoul
Singapore
Johannesburg
TEH-A is among the world’s top private think tanks (the University of Pennsylvania ranked TEH-A 1st in Italy and in the top ten in Europe)
TEH-A provides strategy and management consulting services, strategic scenarios and research, forums and top-executive education programs
Our flagship forum “Intelligence On The World, On Europe, On Italy” (“Villa d’Este Forum”) is one of the most important gatherings of top executives taking place in Europe; 2017 will mark the 43rd forum
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The European House – Ambrosetti: key facts and figures*
(*) In the University of Pennsylvania 2016 Global Go To Think Tanks Report
200PEOPLETHINK
TANK
Over 70#1EVENTS
300
Organized meetings and
gatherings yearly
EXPERTS
2,000
National and international
experts involved in per
year
10,000MANAGERS
Accompanied in their search for
growth and development
Over 100STRATEGIC
STUDIES
Addressed to Italian and
international institutions per
year
In cross-border M&A operations,
with its affiliate
K-Finance
CONSULTING FIRM
Over 50YEARS
Working alongside
entrepreneurs to help them grow
400CLIENTS
Served in consulting
per year
Demonstrating their passion and
commitment
Served each year, through
counseling in Family
Agreements and Governance
Systems
FAMILY BUSINESSES
COUNTRIES
12
Direct presence or partnership
#1
1st in Italy, in the European top ten and in the World top one-
hundred most-esteemed
independent out of 6,846 Think Tanks
globally (*)
ENGINEERS
130
Dedicated to digital
transformation consultancy by partnering with
CEFRIEL (Milan Polytechnic)
(*) With reference to a single year
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The starting point: why managing «attractiveness» is relevant
Growth of income and value addedInvestment
(local/foreign)
Know-how(research, development, etc.)
Tourist flows
Residential settlement
CATEGORIES/ELEMENTS TO ATTRACT
Growth of employment
Increased capital available
Widespread innovation
Cultural cross-fertilization
LOCAL SPINOFFS
Input Output
Talents/highly-skilled workers
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The starting point: “attractiveness” is a zero-sum game
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016
55%43%
2%
DevelopedEconomies
DevelopingEconomies
TransitionEconomies
55%43%
2%
Economiesviluppate
Economie invia di sviluppo
Economie intransizione
$1.762
mld
Ec. sviluppate
Ec. in via di sviluppo
Ec. in transizione
$962 mld
$765 mld
$35 mld
2005-2015
Developed Economies
Developing Economies
Transition Economies
$1,762 bn
mld va cambiato in bn
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Attractiveness is a strategic issue for Italy (and Turkey)
China
1
Hong Kong2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
USA
UK
Singapore
Brazil
Canada
Australia
India
Netherlands
2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)
vs. 2014 2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)
22
MexicoSwitzerland
Luxembourg
France
Turkey
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
380
175
136
101
73
69
65
65
52
49
44
43
40
32
31
30
25
22
20
17
Vs. 2014
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016
Ireland
British Virgin Islands
Germany
Belgium
Italy
#Rank by flows
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index
International rankings have a significant role in:
Steering companies investment decisions and public policies
Positioning a country-system in the international community
Considering the most relevant international rankings:
Italy usually scores very poorly, often behind developing economies
This applies also for other developed countries (e.g. Spain), countries that are leaders in some areas like science and technology (e.g. Japan) or that are destination of important FDI’s flows (e.g. China)
Also Turkey is penalized despite its economic and strategic role
Generally speaking, current international rankings tend to project a misrepresented image of the actual reality of an economy
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Reality vs. ranking?
Italy
8th globally considering GDP
9th considering export
4th globally considering the Value Added of manufacturing industry
13th globally considering GFCF (GrossFixed Capital Formation)
Turkey
18th globally considering GDP
Real GDP growth 2.5% vs 1.7% Europe*
More than 950,000 high school graduates with around half from vocational and technical high schools
Italy
44th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017
50th Ease of Doing Business 2016
77th World Press Freedom Index 2016
61th Corruption Perceptions Index
Turkey
55th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017
69th Ease of Doing Business 2016
43rd Global Innovation Index
46th World Talent Index
Real economy Ranking
(*) Source: Economic Outlook, IMF, June 2017Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration, 2017
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Mission and objectives of the Global Attractiveness Index project
1. Analyzing the methodologies applied by main international rankings and highlight their strengths and weaknesses
2. Building an innovative and reliable index on country-attractiveness
3. Identifying attractiveness’ Key Performance Indicators and set up an interpretative model (“Tableau de Bord”)
4. Studying the best practices to manage the country’s image and positioning in international rankings
5. Devising recommendations and proposals for an effective strategy in order to improve the Country image and attractiveness
MISSION
Making available to international decision makers an Index able to provide a sound representation of country's attractiveness and competitive sustainability and, thus, reliable guidance to support business choices and public policy
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The Advisory Board of the project
INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL AUDIT
Joint Research Center (JRC)
PARTNERS
Enrico GiovanniniFull Professor of EconomicStatistics, Università Di Roma “Tor Vergata”; former President ISTAT and Minister of Labour and Social Policies
Ferruccio de BortoliJournalist, Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas
SCIENTIFIC COMMETTEE
THE EUROPEAN HOUSE – AMBROSETTI WORKING TEAM
Lorenzo Tavazzi (Project Leader), Cetti Lauteta, Massimiliano Sartori, Benedetta Brioschi, Arianna Landi with the supervision of Valerio De Molli (Managing Director)
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Our analysis on 80 country indexes and 650 KPIs shows some recurrent criticalities
EXTENSIVE OF SURVEY
WEIGHTING
“OPTIMAL” MODELS
NON-HOMOGENEOUS
DATA
“CRITICAL MASS”
STATIC
Often are poorly statistically representative and subjective, also according those who provide answers
Introducing subjective elements
The functioning model of the country where the Institution providing the ranking is based conditions the parameters and the comparison
Different aggregation criteria are used for non-comparable data
The absolute dimension of a country is not taken into account
The sustainability of the positioning in the middle-term is not taken in account (“backward looking” view)
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Country Ranking
Index Institute Country US Switz. Germany France Australia
Ease of Doing Business WB USA 8th 31st 17th 29th 15th
Global Competitiveness Index WEF Switzerland 3rd 1st 5th 21st 22th
World CompetitivenessScoreboard
IMD Switzerland 3rd 2th 12th 32ty 17th
Global Peace Index IEP Australia 114th 9th 16th 51st 12th
Social Progress Index SPI USA 19th 5th 15th 18th 4th
Corruption Perception Index TI Germany 18th 5th 10th 23rd 13rd
Global Talent CompetitivenessIndex
INSEAD France 4th 1st 17th 24th 6th
Global Manufacturing Index Deloitte USA 2nd 12th 3rd 22nd 21st
Global Innovation Index INSEAD France 4th 1st 9th 15th 23rd
It seems that correlations between high scores in the rankings and the nationality of the editors' institutes exist
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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«Cultural» bias and attitudes can influence international rankings
57.1
Italians' judgment on their country
External reputation
(average score in foreign countries
investigated)
Internal reputation
(Italians' judgment on their country)
71.7 57.1
Country reputation (internal and external), 2017
80+
70-79
60-69
40-59
0-39
Excellent
Strong
Moderate
Poor
Scarce
Legend
ITALY
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration Reputation Institute (Country RepTrak Pulse) data, 2017
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The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index (GAI)
Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodically detected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY
OBJECTIVITY
SOUNDNESS
MEANINGFULNESS
Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database
Few proxy indicators, non-dependent between each other
Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)
GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability
INTERNAL EXTERNAL
Capability to retain resources already in the Country
Capability to attract resources not yet in the Country
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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We identified 4 attributes to define a country’s attractiveness ...
Allows the circulation of economic and human resources
Promotes scientific and technologic progress for both companies and citizens
Ensure the correct functioning of capital market, products market and labor market
Owns distinctive and valuable
assets with a strong positioning in the
mind map (business community and public
opinion)
Openness
Innovation
Efficiency
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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... and identified the characteristics of a country’s sustainability
Has sound macro-economics,
institutional and social
fundamentals
Reactsadequatelyto shocks
High life standards
and environmentstandards
Resilience(+)
Vulnerability(-)
Reacts to/absorbs shocks and/or crisis or uncertainty periods and is capable to positively adapt itself to changes, adjusting institutional, social and economic structures and models
1.
2. Is exposed to negative impacts coming from harmful situations/events (internal or external), because of its intrinsic economic, social and organizational characteristics
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Global Attractiveness Index (GAI) Structure
aa
Innovation
Openness
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX
(144 COUNTRIES)
Sustainability Index(IS)
Positioning Index(IP)
Vulnerability
Resilience
Efficiency
Dynamicity Index(ID)
Δ Innovation
Δ Openness
Δ Endowment
Δ Efficiency
A
B
C
The robustness of the GAI methodology was ascertained by means of an independent statistical audit performed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
GAI provides a reliable Tableau de Bord for the decisionmakers
Italy14/144
Dynamicity Index
Sustainability Index
Positioning Index
Innovation Efficiency EndowmentOpenness
For
eign
tou
rists
+ n
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tour
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tra
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abro
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FD
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+ In
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Col
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Em
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Inte
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GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The Tableau de Bord for Italy
4 “work areas” for our Country:
1. Strengthen the national innovation ecosystem and the ability to create “disruption” by implementing a “national innovation strategy”
2. Support the manufacturing system development and the elaboration of new production models by enhancing service automation and integration and both Internet and IT technologies in industrial production
3. Modernize the training and requalification of the labour force to cope with the new requirements of production and society by introducing innovative educational approaches and promoting lifelong learning
4. Improve the efficiency of the Country’s basic services (PA, justice system and logistics) accelerating ongoing reforms
ATTRACTIVENESS’S
ATTRIBUTES
(RANK ITALY)
Openness
(17/144)
Innovation
(10/144)
Efficiency
(50/144)
Endowment
(15/144)
N.B. Positioning in relation to competing countries needs to be assessed
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness