Seminar Schedule Spatial Planning Techniques for Renewable Power Generation 2 – 3 February 2015, Lima, Peru Monday, 2 February Tuesday, 3 February 09:00-10:45 FROM 8:30: REGISTRATION Opening/Welcome Address Solar power spatial planning techniques, L. Koerner Strategies: From the technical potential to the realizable potential; Dr. D. Jacobs Opening remarks, Edwin Quintanilla, Vice Minister of Energy Introduction of participants Overview on the seminar, L. Koerner 09:45 – 10:45 Introduction to IRENA’s Global Atlas and hot spot identification, A. Jain The availability of resources and setting of deployment targets based on resource assessments The availability of flexibility in the power sector Case study: Resource assessment and target setting in Saudi Arabia The availability of grid infrastructure o Using the existing grid, expanding the grid or developing renewables off-grid o Grid expansion planning and stakeholder involvement o Grid connection charging 10:45-11:00 Coffee break Coffee break 11:00-12:45 Solar and wind power spatial planning techniques; L. Koerner Strategies (continued) and Finance mechanisms; Dr. D. Jacobs Wind power spatial planning techniques Overview on wind energy estimation and formation of wind Spatial setup of wind farms Estimating wind electricity yield Worked example: Estimating wind capacity and yield at a given site Solar power spatial planning techniques Solar resource Spatial setup of large-scale PV plants The availability of space (spatial planning) o From technical potential to the realizable potential: o Spatial planning and RES deployment – the German framework Finance Mechanisms Designing finance mechanisms for different market segments Net Metering policies for small-scale installations? 12:45-13:45 Lunch Lunch 13:45-15:15 Solar power spatial planning techniques (continued) Hands-on exercise part 1: Hot spot analysis Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning L. Koerner Finance Mechanisms Dr. D. Jacobs Spatial power spatial planning techniques (continued) Estimating PV electricity yield Worked example: Estimating PV capacity and yield at a given site CSP: Direct normal irradiance and spatial requirements Hands-on exercise part 1 (ca. 20-30 minutes): Delegates use Global Atlas and identify hot spot areas in their country for wind and solar energy deployment. Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning: Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) Worked example: LCOE sensitivity of PV projects FIT design and locational signals Hands-on exercise part 3 (ca. 40-50 minutes): Delegates use RENAC’s financial analysis tool for wind and solar feed-in-tariff estimation and present their tariffs. Finance Mechanisms (continued): Auction design and spatial planning Case study South Africa, China and Brazil 15:15-15:30 Coffee break Coffee break 15:30 -17:00 Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning (continued) Hands-on exercise part 2: LCOE estimation; L. Koerner Finance Mechanisms (continued) Project Development; Dr. D. Jacobs Worked example: LCOE sensitivity of wind projects Worked example: Effects of data uncertainty on the LCOE of PV Finance Mechanisms (continued): Combining FITs and auctions? Options for mini-grid finance
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Seminar Schedule Spatial Planning Techniques for Renewable Power Generation
2 – 3 February 2015, Lima, Peru
Monday, 2 February Tuesday, 3 February
09:00-10:45 FROM 8:30: REGISTRATION Opening/Welcome Address Solar power spatial planning techniques, L. Koerner
Strategies: From the technical potential to the realizable potential; Dr. D. Jacobs
Opening remarks, Edwin Quintanilla, Vice Minister of Energy
Introduction of participants
Overview on the seminar, L. Koerner
09:45 – 10:45 Introduction to IRENA’s Global Atlas and hot spot identification, A. Jain
The availability of resources and setting of deployment targets based on resource assessments
The availability of flexibility in the power sector
Case study: Resource assessment and target setting in Saudi Arabia
The availability of grid infrastructure o Using the existing grid, expanding the grid or developing
renewables off-grid o Grid expansion planning and stakeholder involvement o Grid connection charging
10:45-11:00 Coffee break Coffee break
11:00-12:45 Solar and wind power spatial planning techniques; L. Koerner Strategies (continued) and Finance mechanisms; Dr. D. Jacobs
Wind power spatial planning techniques
Overview on wind energy estimation and formation of wind
Spatial setup of wind farms
Estimating wind electricity yield
Worked example: Estimating wind capacity and yield at a given site
Solar power spatial planning techniques
Solar resource
Spatial setup of large-scale PV plants
The availability of space (spatial planning) o From technical potential to the realizable potential: o Spatial planning and RES deployment – the German
framework Finance Mechanisms
Designing finance mechanisms for different market segments
Net Metering policies for small-scale installations?
12:45-13:45 Lunch Lunch
13:45-15:15 Solar power spatial planning techniques (continued) Hands-on exercise part 1: Hot spot analysis Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning L. Koerner
Finance Mechanisms Dr. D. Jacobs
Spatial power spatial planning techniques (continued)
Estimating PV electricity yield
Worked example: Estimating PV capacity and yield at a given site
CSP: Direct normal irradiance and spatial requirements Hands-on exercise part 1 (ca. 20-30 minutes):
Delegates use Global Atlas and identify hot spot areas in their country for wind and solar energy deployment.
Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning:
Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
Worked example: LCOE sensitivity of PV projects
FIT design and locational signals Hands-on exercise part 3 (ca. 40-50 minutes):
Delegates use RENAC’s financial analysis tool for wind and solar feed-in-tariff estimation and present their tariffs.
Finance Mechanisms (continued):
Auction design and spatial planning
Case study South Africa, China and Brazil
15:15-15:30 Coffee break Coffee break
15:30 -17:00 Economic assessment of PV and wind for energy planning (continued) Hands-on exercise part 2: LCOE estimation; L. Koerner
Finance Mechanisms (continued)
Project Development; Dr. D. Jacobs
Worked example: LCOE sensitivity of wind projects
Worked example: Effects of data uncertainty on the LCOE of PV
Finance Mechanisms (continued):
Combining FITs and auctions?
Options for mini-grid finance
Monday, 2 February Tuesday, 3 February
Hands-on exercise part 2 (ca. 60 minutes):
Delegates estimate the LCOE for two solar and wind hot spots in their country and present their findings.
Financing support mechanisms: Design options and international experience
Project Development:
Reducing administrative barriers
The importance of resource mapping for investors and project developers
Assessment and revising of existing policies and frameworks 16:30 -17:00: Panel Discussion and closing remarks
Introduction
IRENA Global AtlasSpatial planning techniques 2-day seminar
About Renewables Academy (RENAC)
• RENAC is a berlin-based training specialist for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency.
• RENAC trained more than 4,000 persons from over 130 countries.
• RENAC’s clients are from public and private sectors.
� Capacity Building Services (RENAC supports third parties to build up their own
capacities for trainings)
• RENAC is a private sector company with 27 employees.
• RENAC is independent.
2
About the tutor
Lars Koerner coordinates training programs at Renewables Academy
(RENAC) AG mainly in the field of solar energy. He holds a Diploma
in Environmental Engineering / Renewable Energies. Before joining
RENAC in 2014 he gained several years of experience as project
engineer and senior product manager at SolarWorld AG where he
also managed several PV-Diesel-Hybrid rural electrification projects.
His experience in the area of solar energy spans further through his
work at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Almeria/Spain and
Fraunhofer ISE in Freiburg/Germany. He is an expert in sizing and
simulation of solar energy systems and the co-author on off-grid and
hybrid systems in Earthscan’s 3rd edition of “Planning and Installing
Photovoltaic Systems”.
3
SETTING THE FRAME
4
5
Resource Mapping
Scenarios
RE Markets
Once we know resource and zones: How do we get to realistic and
feasible scenarios?
What needs to be done to create the right framework for low-risk
scenario deployment?
Instruments for scenario
development
Political, regulatory & financial
instruments
6
Resource Mapping
Scenarios
Energy planning instrumentsD
ay 1
1. National capacity and electricity yield estimationResult: Technical potential for identified areas
2. Finding economically most viable applications and areas Result: Overview on RE generation cost
3. Define priority areas for various RE technologies
7
Scenarios
RE Market
Strategies:
1. Target setting 2. The availability of flexibility in the
power sector? 3. The availability of grid
infrastructure? 4. The availability of space (spatial
planning)?
Instruments:
5. Designing finance mechanisms for different market segments
6. Financing support mechanisms7. Reducing administrative barriers
Project development:
8. Resource mapping for investors and project developers
9. Monitoring and reviewing (target achievement)
Day
2
Thank you very much for your attention!
Lars KoernerRenewables Academy (RENAC)Phone +49 30 52 689 [email protected]
Global Atlas Training on Planning the
Renewable Energy Transition Solar and
Wind MapsLima, Peru, Feb. 2-3th 2015
Current Status of Capacity building
• Why capacity building?
Countries Renewable targets are
• 20% by 2020, 30% by 2030
• Detailed feasibility studies are not conducted to derive these targets
• Mismatch between Renewable Resource and Renewable potential
• Who is funding?
The module is financed by Flemish government, Germany, and the Brussels
Region.
• Who is attending?
The training module is specialised for policy and decision makers. It therefore
focuses on the strategic aspects of planning methods rather than on technical
aspects:
2
Current Status of Capacity building (contd.)
• Where is the capacity module delivered
The module is being deployed in 3 countries
• November 12th – 13th . First session – African Clean Energy Corridor. Arusha,
Tanzania
• December 17th -18th . Second session – MENA. Cairo, Egypt
• February 2nd – 3rd. Third session – Latin American. Lima, Peru
• What are the outcomes?
It presents the different approaches to evaluation of technical potentials, and in
particular emphasizes the sensitivity of the results to the selection of constraints, the
approach, which is chosen, and the way the calculations are performed.
Using the results of previous geospatial analysis performed by IRENA, the training
session builds capacity of the policy and decision makers to identify high-potential
developable renewable energy.
3
RENEWABLE RESOURCES
RENEWABLE POTENTIALS
4
Global Atlas
5
What share of my energy mix canbe supplied by renewable energy?
Where are the resources located?
What is the most cost-effective combination of technologies?
What amount of investments does it represent? How many jobs ?
Is there a large enough market for sustaining a supply chain?
6
Conceptual diagram of Renewable Energy Potentials (from NREL, 2012)
How competitive is it?
How much can it cost?
Where can it be
harvested? How much
power?
Where is the resource?
Complexity StandardsPrivate sector
interest Risks
• COUNTRY-DRIVEN
• LONG TERM PLANNING PROCESS
• COMMITMENT REQUIRED
8
Geospatial information. Resource, infrastructures, population density.. What next?
Energy modelers, general public,
lobbyists
Project developers, grid simulation, rural
electrification agencies, energy agencies
Need: number of MW that can be installed
for a given technology.
Outcome is in MW.
Often presented as tables with MW per
region / country.
Follow-up: high level discussions with policy
makers, broad grid simulations (power).
Need: locations of suitable areas for future
developments.
Outcome is a suitability map.
Follow-up: consultation process with policy
makers, zoom on a few select areas,
dynamic grid simulation using time series
(power).
On such areas, limited analysis on technical
potential into more detail.
Numbers are best guest, depend on
model. High disparity despite apparent
precision.
Outcome is a map and a consultation
process leading to spatial planning. MW are
closer to project reality.
IRENA: Estimating the renewable energy
potential in Africa.
IRENA: Global Atlas, ECOWAS zoning,
Africa Clean Energy Corridor
Winds in Africa. Mesoscale 5km basemap from 3TIER. Average annual wind speeds at 80 m high.
The values can not be usedwithout validation, but the windpatterns appear clearly, and areconsistent with other mesoscalesources. The boxes attempt tohighlight areas with possiblystrong annual average windspeeds.
This rough approximation doesnot exclude the possibility of goodwind sites outside the red squares,due to local effects not capturedby the mesoscale model.
Power curve, wind turbine density (W/km2), air density
Weibull distribution (k, A)
Electrical losses (%)
CAPEX
OPEX
WACC
Life time
Economic parameters
(wind farm and grid connection)
Annual energy prod. (Wh/a/km2)Wind capacity per area (W/km2) C
AP
EX
= C
apita
l exp
endi
ture
, OP
EX
= O
pera
tion
expe
nditu
re, W
AC
C =
Wei
ghte
d av
erag
e co
st o
f ca
pita
l (de
bt, e
quity
)
Areas potentially suitable for wind farms (km2) Site assessment (wind atlas data, wind speed (m/s) for certain height (m))
Exclusion of non-suitable land areas and adding of buffer zones
Nature protected area
Urban area (buffer zone: 8–10 hub height)
Transport, supply and communication infrastructure
Areas technically not suitable (high slope and above certain altitude, etc.)
Landscape, historic area, other non-usable land (glaciers, rivers, etc.)
Areas potentially suitable for wind farms (km2)
Priority areas for wind power (km2), potentially installed capacity (W), potentially
generated energy (Wh/a) and costs
Energy policy analysis
Economic assessment
done
pend
ing
Agenda
1. Formation of wind
2. Technical aspects we need to know
3. Spatial setup of wind farms
4. Estimating wind electricity yield
5. Worked example: Estimating wind capacity and yield at a given site
4
1. FORMATION OF WIND
5
High and low pressure area
• High pressure area occurs when air becomes colder (winter high pressure areas can be quite strong and lasting). The air becomes heavier and sinks towards the earth. Skies are usually clear. The airflow is clockwise (northern hemi). The air flows towards the low pressure area over the ground.
• Low pressure occurs when air becomes warmer. The air becomes lighter and rises. The pressure lowers towards the center and air flow is counterclockwise (northern hemi). Clouds will appear due to rising of the moist warm air and the weather will deteriorate. Air will flow back to the high pressure area at higher altitudes in the atmosphere.
6
Mountain valley breeze
7
Sea-land breeze
8
2. TECHNICAL ASPECTSWE NEED TO KNOW
9
Vertical wind shear profile and roughness of surface
Profile above area with low roughness (sea, low grass)
Hei
ght
Hei
ght
Profile above area with high roughness (forest, town) 10
Roughness classes and roughness lengths (European wind atlas)
Rough-ness class
Roughnesslength Z 0 [m] Landscape type
0 0.0002 Water surface
0.5 0.0024 Completely open terrain with a smooth surface, e.g. concrete runways in airports, mowed grass, etc.
1 0.03 Open agricultural area without fences and hedgerows and very scattered buildings. Only softly rounded hills
1.5 0.055 Agricultural land with some houses and 8 meters tall sheltering hedgerows with a distance of approx. 1250 meters
2 0.1 Agricultural land with some houses and 8 meters tall sheltering hedgerows with a distance of approx. 500 meters
2.5 0.2 Agricultural land with many houses, shrubs and plants, or 8 metre tall sheltering hedgerows with a distance of approx. 250 meters
3 0.4 Villages, small towns, agricultural land with many or tall sheltering hedgerows, forests and very rough and uneven terrain
3.5 0.8 Larger cities with tall buildings 4 1.6 Very large cities with tall buildings and skyscrapers 11
Calculating wind speed at different heights
h2
h1
Where:
h1 : height [m]
h2 : height [m]
v1 : wind speed at h1 [m/s]
v2 : wind speed at h2 [m/s]
z0 : roughness length [m]
�2 = �1 ∗ln(
ℎ2
�0)
ln(ℎ1
�0)
12
Schematic wind shear for different roughness classes - wind speed measured at the same height
13
J.lie
rsch
; Key
Win
dEne
rgy,
200
9
Site specific wind resource assessment for wind farm planning• To calculate the annual energy production of
a wind turbine the distribution of wind speeds
is needed. It can be approximated by a
Weibull equation with parameters A and K
• The distribution of wind directions is important
for the siting of wind turbines in a wind farm.
The wind rose shows probability of a wind
from a certain sector.
• Wind speed distributions are measured for
different wind direction sectors.
14
h w(v
)
Weibull equation factors for different regions
• For regions with similar topography the k factors are also similar
� 1.2 < k < 1.7 Mountains
� 1.8 < k < 2.5 Typical North America and Europe
� 2.5 < k < 3.0 Where topography increases wind speeds
� 3.0 < k < 4.0 Winds in e.g. monsoon regions
• Scaling factor A is related to mean wind speed ( vavg ~ 0,8…0,9 · A)
• Relation of mean wind vavg, k und A (mean wind vavg, calculation)
• Warning: Only rough values! – On site monitoring is necessary !
Source: J.liersch; KeyWindEnergy, 2009
15
Wind Atlas based on modelling
• A suitable number of high quality
measurements is characterized for its local
effects
• The measurements are combined into an
atlas
• Sample: 3TIER’s Global Wind Dataset 5km
onshore wind speed at 80m height units in
m/s
• Limitations for complex terrain and costal
zones
16
Map: IRENA Global Atlas; Data: 3TIER’s Global WindDataset
Power of wind
17
P = ½ x ρρρρ x A x v3
� P = power of wind (Watt)
� ρ = air density (kg/m3; kilogram per cubic meter)
� A = area (m2; square meter)
� v = wind speed (m/s; meter per second)
Quick exercise: doubling of wind speed
• Let's double the wind speed and calculate what happens to the power of the swept rotor
area. Assume length of rotor blades (radius) 25 m and air density 1.225 kg/m^3).
• wind speed = 5 m wind speed = 10 m
18
3. SPATIAL SETUP OFWIND FARMS
19
Wake effect
� Clouds form in the wake of the front row of wind turbines at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in the North Sea
� Back-row wind turbines losing power relative to the front row Source: www.popsci.com/technology/article/2010-01/wind-turbines-leave-clouds-and-energy-inefficiency-their-wake
20
Legend:
Predominant wind direction
Position of wind turbine to beinstalled
One rotor diameter in order todetermine best position toinstall the desired wind turbines
5 rotordiameters
7 rotor diameters
Distance between turbines to reduce wake effects
21
4. ESTIMATING WIND ELECTRICITY YIELD
22
What needs to be done
1. Define a representative mix of suitable turbines (potentially site-specific).
2. Get power curve information for all turbine types.
3. Extrapollate average wind speeds to applicable hub heights.
4. Choose the wind speed distribution curve which is most likely at given site(s).
5. Calculate wind speed distributions for given hub heights.
6. Use wind speed distributions and power curves to calclulate representative wind energy
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Limiting factors for the actually realizable potential:
Available grids, available space (spatial planning),system flexibility
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
The relation between resource mapping limiting factors (grid, space, flexibility)
• To derive the actually realizable potential from the theoretical/technical
potential requires an analysis of all limiting factors
� The availability of grid infrastructure
� The availability of space (spatial planning and protected areas)
� The technical potential of the electricity system to absorb
fluctuating renewables (wind and solar)
19
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Availability of grid infrastructure?
Using the existing grid, expanding the grid or developing renewables off-grid
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Least cost grid expansion plan in Rwanda
• Grid expansion is a crucial component for rural electrification
• However, costs of transmission, distribution, and oil have gone up; costs of off-grid
solutions have come down
�
21
Source: World Bank http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTAFRREGTOPENERGY/Resources/717305-1327690230600/8397692-1327691237767/DAKARHVI_AEI_Practitioner_WorkshopNov14-15_2011_Nov7.pdf
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Rule of thumb for rural electrification and technology choice
� Due to dramatic reductions in PV costs
in the past years, PV mini-grids are a
viable alternatives to grid extension and
diesel mini-grids.
� The LCOE will generally be competitive
with that of grid extension when the
extension would imply less than 10
connections/km.
� Obstacles: the need for upfront
financing, ensuring proper maintenance,
etc.
22
Source: Norplan 2012
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Rule of thumb for rural electrification and technology choice
� Several factors influence the viability of off-grid solutions, including mini-
grids, solar-home-systems and hybrid systems, e.g. the level of market
penetration, transport cost for equipment, etc.
� The rules-of-thumb are fairly sensitive to the assumed consumption per
household (50kWh /HH/month).
• If lower, the number of connections would have to be higher to
justify grid extension.
• If higher, grid connection might already make sense with less
connections
23
Source: Norplan 2012
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Questions
24
What decision parameters do
you apply in your country for
grid expansion of off-grid
solutions?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
The availability of grid infrastructure
Anticipating required grid expansion to reach ambitious long-term targets (lessons learned from Germany)
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Insufficient grid capacity
• Insufficient grid capacity for new projects due to underdeveloped
grid infrastructure?
• Originally designed for conventional, centralized power system –
no grid at best locations for renewables?
• National grid extension plans has to be prepared (well in
advance!)
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Grid extension plans in Germany
� Transport renewable electricity from the
North (onshore and offshore wind) to the
load centers in the South
� Distribution grid upgrade:
• Most renewable energy projects in
Germany are connected to the
distribution grid
• High shares of renewables (PV) in
Bavarian distribution grids
• Bi-directional transformer stations
NEP 2013, Stand: Juli 2013 www.netzentwicklungsplan.de
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Grid expansion for the German Energiewende
• Part of European grid integration
process (TEN-E)
• Grid development plan for new
electricity lines from 2013
� 2,800 km of new transmission
lines
� 2,900 km of grid upgrades
28
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
• 10-year network development plan
from ENTSO-e
• The latest report pinpoints about 100
spots on the European grid where
bottlenecks exist or may develop in
the future
• Transmission adequacy by 2030?
• Full market coupling with European
neigbours (e.g. one merit order for
Germany and Austria).
The expansion of the European transmission grid
Source: ENTSO-e 2014
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Stakeholder engagement
30
In how far are citizens and other
concerned actors involved in the
planning and siting process for
energy infrastructure in your
country? Is there a trade-off between quick
planning (and execution) of projects
and stakeholder engagement?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Reasons for opposition from citizens and communities
• Visual impact (noise in the case of wind energy)
• Lack of information about the required grid infrastructure for the
energy transition (“we want to produce electricity decentrally, no
offshore wind!)
• Lack of information about the need for the existing project (why
through my village and not the neighbouring village?).
• Lack of direct financial advantages for communities and citizens
31
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Financial compensation for exposure to new electric ity grid • Amendment to German law
(NABEG):
� Effected villages can receive
one-off payment of 40.000 € per
km of new transmission line in
their territory
� Much critizised!
32
• German deployment of renewable energy sources large grass-rout driven
• Denmark: Project developers need to involve local citizens in financing renewable
energy power plants
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
New transmission technologies: underground cable
• Underground solutions are being discussed in more densely
populated areas
• more expensive than above-ground options (factor 3-10)
� more costly insulation is used
� more complex equipment
� larger cables are needed
33
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
The availability of grid infrastructure
Which grid connection charging approach fits with your grid expansion plan?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
General best practise for grid connection
• Fair and transparent grid connection procedures required
• Data (grid availability, costs, technical) need to be verifiable and
disclosed by grid operator/utility
• Clear rules about grid connection point and step in grid connection
application
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Cost sharing methodologies for grid connection
Who pays for grid connection
(nearest connection point)?
Who pays for grid reinforcement
(because of existing grid capacity
restrictions)?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Grid connection costs for different renewable energ y technologies
Source: Auer et al. 2007, http://greennet.i-generation.at/files/Report%20on%20Synthesis%20of%20Results%20on%20RES-E%20Grid%20Integration%20%28D11%20GreenNet-EU27%29.pdf
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Distribution and transmission grid reinforcement
Source: Auer et al. 2007, http://greennet.i-generation.at/files/Report%20on%20Synthesis%20of%20Results%20on%20RES-E%20Grid%20Integration%20%28D11%20GreenNet-EU27%29.pdf
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Shallow vs. deep connection charging
Source: Auer et al. 2007, http://greennet.i-generation.at/files/Report%20on%20Synthesis%20of%20Results%20on%20RES-E%20Grid%20Integration%20%28D11%20GreenNet-EU27%29.pdf
• Who pays for the connection to the nearest connection point?
• Who pays for distribution and transmission network upgrades?
• Who pays for substation, etc.
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Super shallow connection charging for solar in India• ADB financed renewable energy development in Rajasthan, India
• ADB provided $500 m for transmission grid expansion
� construction of grid substations at project location
� construction of associated automation and control infrastructure
� Objective:
� Decrease grid-related costs for project developers;
� Access locations with high solar radiation
40
Source: ADB - Rajasthan Renewable Energy Transmission Investment Program
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
The availability of space
Spatial planning and the deployment of renewables
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Spatial planning: Introductory questions
42
Who is responsible for spatial
planning (national, regional,
local)?
How are (renewable) energy
projects integrated into spatial
planning legislation?
Is there competition for limited
space?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
General approach:
• Clarify responsibilities for spatial planning (interplay between regional level and
national planning programs)
• Identify areas which are definitely excluded from building renewable energy
• Therefore, an assessment of various flexibility options in the electricity
system is essential in order to assess the actually realizable potential
53
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
• Options for integrating high shares of wind and solar PV
• Grid expansion/integration; smart grid
• Dispatch of conventional power plants • Dispatch and curtailment from renewable energy
sources
• Demand response
• Storage
Creating a flexible power market
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Electricity demand and renewable power generation in Germany in 2022
The electricity market is determined by wind and so lar PV
Source: Agora Energiewende 2012
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
• High upfront investment
(capital costs)
• Almost zero marginal costs
• Fluctuating supply (depending
on the weather)
Important features of wind and solar
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CCGT Coal Nuclear Wind PV
OPEX
CAPEX
Share of fixed versus variable costs of selected power generation technologies
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
• High upfront investment (capital costs) –INVESTMENT SECURITY is crucial!
• Almost zero marginal costs – they come FIRST in the MERIT ORDER!
• Fluctuating supply (depending on the weather) – backup needs to be provided by other flexibility options
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CCGT Coal Nuclear Wind PV
OPEX
CAPEX
Share of fixed versus variable costs of selected power generation technologies
Important features of wind and solar
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
• Base load power plants disappear (fossil fuel power plants need to
become more flexible)
• Reduce must-run requirements of conventional power plants
• Reduced full-load hours for coal and gas-fired power plants
• changing economics and additional revenue requirements via
capacity markets?
• Upgrade existing power plant in order to allow for better ramping
capabilities
Conventional power plants need to become more flexi ble
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Making best use of the existing grid infrastructure:
Net Metering Policy Design
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Simplistic grid parity and “self-consumption”
60
Source: Eclareon 2013
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Grid parity in Sydney, Australia (residential)
61
Source: Eclareon 2013
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
“Grid parity” in Sao Paulo, Brazil (residential)
62
Source: Eclareon 2013
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Electricity tariff structure and incentives for sel f-consumption
• Contrary to European countries and the US, electricity prices in
developing countries/African countries are generally low for domestic
consumers and high for commercial consumers/industry
• Example: Kenya
63
Source: Hille et al. 2011
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Net metering programs world-wide
Europe Americas Asia Middle East Africa
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Greece
Italy
Malta
Switzerland
Portugal
Spain
Guatemala
Canada (regional)
Mexico
USA (43 States)
Peru
DominicanRepublic
Panama
Japan
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Jordan
Palestine
Uruguay
Tunesien
Cap Verde
64Source: REN21 2013
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Net Metering Design Features: Eligible technologies and sectors
Features Design Options
Eligible Renewable/Other Technologies:
Photovoltaics (but also Solar Thermal Electric, Landfill Gas, Wind, Biomass, Hydroelectric, Geothermal Electric, Municipal Solid Waste, Hydrokinetic, Anaerobic Digestion, Small Hydroelectric, Tidal Energy, Wave Energy, Ocean Thermal)
Applicable Sectors:
Residential (limitation to certain system size?)Commercial, Industrial, Schools, Local Government, State Government, Federal Government, Agricultural, Institutional
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Net Metering Design Options
Features Design Options
Program size • Defined as a percentage of total peak demand• Defined as a capacity limit • Unlimited
System size: • Limit on installed capacity per unit (e.g. 10 kW)• Limitation in relation to the average, annual electricity
demand in a region/country (e.g. average electricity demandof 300 kWh/a; 1% of 300 kWh = maximum size of 3 kw)
• Local electricity generation may not exceed local electricitydemand (household with 300 kWh consumption may not produce/net meter more than 300 kWh of generation).
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Roll-over provisions for excess electricity
Features Design Options
Program size • Indefinate• Yearly• Monthly• Hourly
The value of the role over:
• retail price• wholesale price• combinations
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Auto consumptions and the “solidarity”-based electri city system
• Are there major exemptions/privileges for electricity auto-consumption
in your country?
� Grid usage fees?
� Other taxes or levies?
• If industry subsidizes household electricity prices in Africa countries, do
you want them to auto-produce/consume electricity (and no longer pay
the higher industrial/commercial rate?
68
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Investment (in)security in the case of net metering
• Changes in Net Metering regulations will effect new power plants AND
existing power plants
• Changes in electricity pricing (moving from monopolised markets to
liberalized markets in the coming 20 years?)
• Changes in electricity rate structure (costumer classes)
69
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Thank you very much for your attention!
Dr. David JacobsIET – International Energy TransitionPhone +49 163 2339046Fax: +49 30 [email protected]@InterEnerTrans
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Session 7/8: From scenarios to policy and market development
IRENA Global AtlasSpatial planning techniques 2-day seminar
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion) 2
Scenarios
RE Market
Strategies:
1. Target setting 2. The availability of flexibility in the
power sector? 3. The availability of grid
infrastructure? 4. The availability of space (spatial
planning)?
Instruments:
5. Designing finance mechanisms for different market segments
6. Financing support mechanisms7. Reducing administrative barriers
Project development:
8. Resource mapping for investors and project developers
9. Monitoring and reviewing (target achievement)
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Establishing political and financial instruments:
Designing finance mechanisms for different market segments
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Overview of support mechanisms for RES-e
SUPPORT MECHANISMS
Price-based support Quantity basedsupport
Investment focussed Investment subsidies
Tax incentives
Generation focused Feed-in tariffs
Net metering
Tax incentives
Tender scheme
Quota obligation (TGC / RPS)
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Custom taxes
• Are there custom taxes for renewable energy equipment?
• If yes, what is the rational?
Pilot projects
• In emerging RE markets:
� Have you started with pilot projects in order to make actors
familiar with renewables (fluctuations, permitting, grid access,
etc.)?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Local content requirement
• Several countries have introduced local content requirements in
national support mechanisms, i.e. obligations to produce a certain
share of renewable energy equipment locally/nationally (e.g. Spain,
China, India, Argentina - Chubut, Ontario - Canada, Malaysia, Italy)
• These requirements can be implemented in national feed-in tariff
mechanisms� Establish a national renewable energy industry
� Take advantage of positive macro-economic effects
Source: Mendonca et al. 2009
• Problem: potential confliction with international trade rules (WTO)
• Malaysia: Adder for nationally produced equipment:
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
From scenarios to instruments:
FIT design and locational signals
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Basic feed-in tariff design
� Purchase obligation
� “Independent” from power demand
� Fixed tariff payment based on the actual power generation costs
� Price setting will be discussed later
� Long duration of tariff payment
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Tariff calculation methodology
� Tariff calculation based on technology specific generation
costs + “reasonable” rates of return
� Don’t use “avoided costs” as point of reference
� Cost factors:
� Investment costs (material and capital costs); Grid-related
and administrative costs (including grid connection, costs for
licensing procedure; Operation and maintenance costs; Fuels
costs (biomass and biogas)
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Tariff calculation methodology
� Targeted IRR (Internal rate of return)
� In the EU, feed-in tariffs target at an internal rate of
return of 5-9 percent (certain jurisdictions use return
on equity)
� In developing countries, the targeted IRR usually needs
to be higher (10-20 percent)
� Public investment (monopolist, often without profit
interest); or private IPPs (profitability important)?
� Similar profitability for renewable energy projects
needed as for convention energy market
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Equity IRR expectation in developing countries
Figure 4: Equity IRR expectation in developing coun tries:
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Infrastructure
investment
(developed
world)
Technology
risk (missing
track record)
Political risk Reg. Risk, soft
political risk,
transparency,
legal
framework
Counterparty
risk
Currency
safety cushion
Infrastructure
investment
(developing
world)
Source. Fulton et al. 2011
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion) 12121212
Debt-equity ratio: • International benchmarking
• South Africa, Nersa: 70:30
• Ruanda FIT: 75:25
• Nigeria: 60:40
• Germany: 90:10; 70:30
• Netherlands: 80:20 (biomass); 90:10 wind
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Hands-on exercise: How to calculate FIT levels for your country?
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Important FIT design features (continued)
� Payment duration
� Eligibility
� Technology-specific tariffs
� Feed-in tariff calculation
� FIT degression
� Capacity caps
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Locational signals for new power generation- Location-specific tariff payment
15
• Mostly applied for wind energy (Germany and France)
• Reduce accumulation of wind power plants in coastal areas (increases public
acceptance); visual impact; grid integration
• Location specific tariffs in Germany depend on wind speed at a given location
(measured during the first 10 years of operation)
• First 10 years: flat rate
• Final 5 years: depending on “quality” of site
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Location specific tariffs - Germany
Source: Klein et al. 2008
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Location specific tariffs - Germany
Source: Klein et al. 2008
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Location specific tariffs - Germany
Dr. David Jacobs – IET (International Energy Transit ion)
Location specific tariffs • French FIT for solar also includes location specific tariffs