Global and International Buildings Modeling in GCAM Jiyong Eom, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Pralit Patel, Sha Yu, Yuyu Zhou GCAM Modeling Community Meeting 29 November 2011 1
Global and International Buildings Modeling in GCAM
Jiyong Eom, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Leon Clarke,
Page Kyle, Pralit Patel, Sha Yu, Yuyu Zhou
GCAM Modeling Community Meeting
29 November 2011
1
Presentation Outline
Introduction
Structure of the Global Building Model
Results of Global Building Modeling in GCAM
Model Extension: Long-term impact assessment of
building codes in China
INTRODUCTION
3
Year 2005 Building Energy Uses in Selected Countries
4
Traditional
Biomass
Overview of GCAM Buildings Research
The goal is to represent the long-term evolution of
building energy demand globally and regionally
Based on a detailed, service-based model fully nested in GCAM
To explore the implications of end-use efficiency improvement,
carbon policy, and climate change
For the buildings sectors in regions at different stages of
development and climate conditions.
5
Today’s Presentation
Introduces the structure of the model and
Presents some preliminary results and applications.
Energy Service
Demands
Commercial
Building
Floorspace
China
Population
GDP
Urban
population
GDP
Rural
population
GDP
Urban
Building
Floorspace
Rural
Building
Floorspace
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Furnace
Boiler
Heat pump
District heat
AC
Cooker
Water heater
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Solidstate
Lamp
Appliances
Equipment
Coal
Gas
Oil
Heat
Electricity
Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use
Technologies Urbanization
Floorspace
Expansion Delivered
Fuels
Socioeconomic
Assumption
The Model for Building Energy Demand
Modeling Challenges
1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)
Energy Service
Demands
Commercial
Building
Floorspace
China
Population
GDP
Urban
population
GDP
Rural
population
GDP
Urban
Building
Floorspace
Rural
Building
Floorspace
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Furnace
Boiler
Heat pump
District heat
AC
Cooker
Water heater
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Solidstate
Lamp
Appliances
Equipment
Coal
Gas
Oil
Heat
Electricity
Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use
Technologies Urbanization
Floorspace
Expansion Delivered
Fuels
Socioeconomic
Assumption
2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?
Energy Service
Demands
Commercial
Building
Floorspace
China
Population
GDP
Urban
population
GDP
Rural
population
GDP
Urban
Building
Floorspace
Rural
Building
Floorspace
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Furnace
Boiler
Heat pump
District heat
AC
Cooker
Water heater
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Solidstate
Lamp
Appliances
Equipment
Coal
Gas
Oil
Heat
Electricity
Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use
Technologies Urbanization
Floorspace
Expansion Delivered
Fuels
Socioeconomic
Assumption
1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)
Modeling Challenges
2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?
3a. How should energy service demands vary with income, prices, and changing climate?
Energy Service
Demands
Commercial
Building
Floorspace
China
Population
GDP
Urban
population
GDP
Rural
population
GDP
Urban
Building
Floorspace
Rural
Building
Floorspace
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Furnace
Boiler
Heat pump
District heat
AC
Cooker
Water heater
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Solidstate
Lamp
Appliances
Equipment
Coal
Gas
Oil
Heat
Electricity
Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use
Technologies Urbanization
Floorspace
Expansion Delivered
Fuels
Socioeconomic
Assumption
1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)
Modeling Challenges
2. How to build a reasonable floor space expansion model?
3a. How should energy service demands vary with income, prices, and changing climate?
3b. How to define preferences for individual energy service demands and fuels?
Energy Service
Demands
Commercial
Building
Floorspace
China
Population
GDP
Urban
population
GDP
Rural
population
GDP
Urban
Building
Floorspace
Rural
Building
Floorspace
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Heating
Cooling
Others
Furnace
Boiler
Heat pump
District heat
AC
Cooker
Water heater
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Solidstate
Lamp
Appliances
Equipment
Coal
Gas
Oil
Heat
Electricity
Biomass
Trad. biomass
End-Use
Technologies Urbanization
Floorspace
Expansion Delivered
Fuels
Socioeconomic
Assumption
1. How should urban/rural population change over time? (in case of rapidly urbanizing regions)
Modeling Challenges
STRUCTURE OF THE GLOBAL BUILDING MODEL
Floorspace Expansion in Residential Buildings
Income-driven expansion (with the effect of energy price changes)
Five regional groups with varying long-term preference assumed:
A (USA), B (Canada, Australia/NZ), C (Western Europe), D (FSU, China, Middle
East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Korea), E (Japan, Africa, Southeast Asia,
India)
12
Historical comparison (Eom et al., in review)
GCAM projection (14 regions)
Demand for Space Heating Service [GJ-output/m2] :
tH
t
H
tHtttHtHP
YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffHDDkQ
,
,
2lnexp1
Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-output/m2]
Demand for Other Services (e.g., water heating, cooking, lighting, and appliances):
t
t
i
iitP
YqkQ
2lnexp1
tC
t
C
tCtttCtCP
YinInternalGaioSurfaceRatShellEffCDDkQ
,
,
2lnexp1
Space Heating Requirement
Space Cooling Requirement
Economic Behavior
Economic Behavior
Representing Service Demand ‘Satiation’
(Source: Eom et al., in review)
Climate Change Impacts on Heating and Cooling Requirement: HDD/CDDs in SRES A2 Scenario
14
Estimates based on CCSM with fixed population distribution (Zhou, et al., 2011)
RESULTS OF GLOBAL BUILDING MODELING IN GCAM
15
Building Energy Use in Selected Regions (Fixed Climate)
16
Global Building Energy Use
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Only less than 2% decline globally !
More electricity and less fossil fuel uses
Climate Impact on Heating and Cooling Energy Use in Selected Regions [GJ/m2]
18
Fixed Climate Changing Climate
MODEL EXTENSION: LONG-TERM IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF BUILDING CODES IN CHINA
19
Spatial Disaggregation based on Climate Conditions for the Building Code Study
20
Regional Heterogeneities: Building Energy Demand Intensities in 2005 [GJ/m2]
21
Energy demand profile varies widely across the regions and sectors
High energy intensities in rural areas
Source: China Energy Databook (2008); China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2006); IEA Energy Balances (2007);
2008 Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency (2008); Brockett et al.(2004). Urban energy services are
calculated based on a variety of survey and statistical data; Rural and commercial services are calibrated based
on fuel share of services in urban residential buildings in the same climate zone and with our reasoned judgment.
Disaggregating the Climate Sub-Regions: Urbanization Assumptions
22
Projected China urbanization and other countries’ historical urbanization Population Disaggregation
Building Stock Modeling
The building stock model projects the development of stock-average
envelope U-value over the century.
The stock model specifies:
Building floorspace expansion, lifetime, and retirement rate
New buildings: building code schedule and non-compliant U-value
Existing buildings: retrofit rate and efficiency improvement
23
Building Stock by Vintage in HSCW Region Building Stock by Region in China
Building Energy Demand Intensities by Sub-Region & Impacts of Stringent Building Code Implementation (Preliminary Results)
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QUESTIONS & COMMENTS
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