Global Aging: Impact on Human Resources for Health Barbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health (APHA) Interim.

Global Aging: Impact on Human Resources for

HealthBarbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN

Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health (APHA)

Interim Secretary General, World Federation of Public Health Associations (WFPHA)

Presentation Overview

• Demographic overview & the age wave

• World/Region/Country specific demographics

• Impact on Human Resources for Health

• Future Trends

This is the reality in the year 2005This is the reality in the year 2005

The world stands on the threshold of a demographic revolution called global aging.

The whole world is aging—and today’s developed countries are leading the way.The whole world is aging—and today’s

developed countries are leading the way.

8% 9%10%

12%13%

14%16%

19%

23%25%

26%

4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6%8%

10%

13%15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Developed World Developing World

Percent of PopulationAged 65 & Over: History and UN Projection

Source: UN (2005)

Year 2005

Fertility in every developed country has Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”Fertility in every developed country has Fertility in every developed country has

fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”

3.3

2.9 2.8

3.6

2.0

2.5 2.5

2.01.9

1.71.5

1.3 1.3 1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

US France UK Canada Japan Germany Italy

Life

time

Birt

hs p

er W

oman

1960-1965 2000-2005

Total Fertility Rate, by Country

Source: UN (2005)

2.1

Life spans in the developed countries have risen dramatically.

68.9 69.267.5

66.5

69.1

66.0

63.9

77.378.3 78.6

79.4 79.7 80.0

81.9

60

65

70

75

80

85

US UK Germany France Canada Italy Japan

Ye

ars

1950-1955 2000-2005

Life Expactancy at Birth, by Country

Source: UN (2005)

Aging Exemplar

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Latin America & the Caribbean

• Total Population (in millions) - 518.8

• Life expectancy at birth (in years) • Men 67.2 •Women 73.6

• Median Age 24.4 years old • Total Fertility Rate 2.5 children

born/woman

Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005

Latin America & the Caribbean

• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 7.2 •Women 8.7

• % 60+ Population in Labor Force •Men 47 •Women 12


United States• Total Population (in millions) - 293 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)

• Men 74.3 • Women 80

• Median Age • Men 34.5• Women 37.1

• Total Fertility Rate 2.07 children born/woman


United States

• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 15 •Women 18



Canada

• Total Population (in millions) – 32.5 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)

• Men 76.4 • Women 83.4

• Median Age • Men 36.9• Women 38.8



Canada

• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 16 •Women 19



Mexico

• Total Population (in millions) – 106.2 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)

• Men 72.4 • Women 78.1

• Median Age • Men 24• Women 25.8



Mexico

• % Population Aged 60+ • Men 7 • Women 8

• % 60+ Population in Labor Force • Men 65 • Women 15


Percentage Population age 60 and over by world region, 2000

& 2050

Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat

Median Age by World Region 1999 & 2050

Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat

The Challenge to Labor

• Shrinking Workforces & labor shortages

• Aging workers Care demands & Needs• Pressure to ↑ immigration• ↑ cross-border outsourcing

The Challenge to Labor

• Shrinking recruitment pool (in some countries)

• mal-distribution: Understaffing in rural areas

• Mal-distribution: Understaffing, both areas rural and inner-city

• Effective skill mix and utilization

Global Aging: Impact on Human Resources for Health Barbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health (APHA) Interim.

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