GLGi: LED and OLED Market Trends President & Managing Member Organic Lighting Technologies, LLC.

GLGi: LED and OLED Market Trends

President & Managing MemberOrganic Lighting Technologies, LLC

OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member Biography

Munisamy Anandan, Ph.D., is the President and Managing Member at Organic Lighting Technologies LLC, an optical component manufacturer. He specializes in market research, marketing, LCD backlighting, and flat panel display technologies. He is experienced in development of OLED backlight for cell phones, LED backlight, LCD TV, CRT, SED, and desktop monitors. He is knowledgeable in market and technology trends for the plasma, projection television market, LCDs for desktop monitors, and OLEDs. He is experienced in the LCD, Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, LCD backlighting, field emission display markets and has established processes for mass manufacturing for LCD, Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, and LCD backlighting . He is a senior member of IEEE and the Society for Information Display. Recently, he has delivered a "Key-Note Address" on 'LED backlight for LCD' at International Display Research Conference in Moscow.


Topics

Review of technology Penetration & growth forecasts Review of major players


About GLG Institute

GLG Institute (GLGiSM) is a professional organization focused on educating business and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It is designed to revolutionize the professional education market by putting the power of programming into the hands of the GLG community.

GLGi hosts hundreds of Seminars worldwide each year.

GLGi clients receive two seats to all Seminars in all Practice Areas.

GLGi’s website enables clients to: ► Propose Seminar topics, agenda items and locations ► View and RSVP to scheduled and proposed Seminars ► Receive a daily briefing with new posts on your favorite tickers,

subject areas and from trusted Council Members ► Share Seminar details with colleagues or friends


Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts

John AronsohnVice President and TMT Global Research Head, Gerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY [email protected]

Aaron LibermanManaging Director, Sales and MarketingGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY 10022212-984-3684 [email protected]

Carly PisarriProcess ManagerGerson Lehrman Group850 Third Avenue, 9th FloorNew York, NY [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER – By making contact with this/these Council Members and participating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agree that you must not seek out material non-public or confidential information from Council Members. You understand and agree that the information and material provided by Council Members is provided for your own insight and educational purposes and may not be redistributed or displayed in any form without the prior written consent of Gerson Lehrman Group. You agree to keep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the business information of Gerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until such information becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure may be required by law, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they may have and understand the Council Members may be constrained by obligations or agreements in their ability to consult on certain topics and answer certain questions. Please note that Council Members do not provide investment advice, nor do they provide professional opinions. Council Members who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship is established from their participation in this project.

You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is not responsible for the content of materials produced by Council Members. You understand and agree that you will not hold Council Members or Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided to you by the Council Members. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoever arising from your attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but not limited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, and you agree to release Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilities that result from your participation in this event or the information provided by Council Members, regardless of whether or not such liability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall not be liable for any incidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use of the information provided at this event.

2008 GLG SEMINAR OLT 7

LED

Lumiled web site


SOME BASICS


SOME BASICS


JUNCTION TEMPERATURE: CONSEQUENCES

Junction temperature beyond 60 C

• Spectrum shifts and hence chromaticity coordinates change.

• Brightness and luminous efficiency decreases

• Life degrades. • Values differ for red LED compared to

blue and green


40 YEARS OF WORK ON LED

• EPITAXIAL LAYER

• ELECTRON-HOLE RECOMBINATION

• LIGHT GENERATION ACROSS JUNCTION

• LIGHT EXTRACTION

• PACKAGING


EFFICIENCY OF LEDs- Chip levelAt Room Temperature

LED color Peak λ current lm/w

White N/A 20 mA 136

White N/A 350 mA 115 (136 lm)

Red 625 nm 350 mA 60

Blue 450 nm 350 mA 10

Green 527 nm 350 mA 72


‘LUXEON REBEL’ LED (packaged)LED ColorPeak λ Lumin Flux lm/w CRI

350 mA 700mA (350 mA)Red 627 nm 40lm 85 lm 36

-----Blue 470 nm 23 lm 48 lm 21.3

-----Green 530 nm 80 lm 145 lm 72

-----Cool white (6500 K) 100 lm 180 lm 84 70

Neutral white (4100K) 80 lm 145 lm 67 75

Warm white (3100K) 60 lm 110 lm 50 80

Retail price -------------------Approx: €4.49 = US$6.6------------------------Above characteristics measured at thermal pad temperature of 25 CLife: 50,000 hrs at junction temperature of 110C for 350 mA drive.

Source: Lumiled web site


SUBSTRATE FOR GaNSapphire substrate Manufacturers• Crystal Gmbh, Berlin – 1”, 2” and 3” wafers• Rubicon – up to 4” and also 6”• Marketech International, Washington state• Valley Design corp, Santa Cruz, CA and Shireley,

MA- procures raw material and polishes-up to 8”• Semiconductor Wafer, Inc. - 4” available • Epistone comp-semi material, Freemont, CA- 4”

wafer• Red Optronics-Distributor of 4” Boule crystal rod• Roditi International-Distributor-3”• Kyocera


SUBSTRATE FOR GaN

SiC wafers• Cree• Dow Corning• Toshiba• Caracal• Norstel-Swedish• 15 competing companies for SiC. 75%

market share for Cree.


SUBSTRATE FOR GaN

GaN wafer

• Sumitomo Electric – 2” wafer

• Panasonic

• Marubeni, Santa Clara-GaN on sapphire-2”


APPLICATIONS OF LED-

SIGNS & DISPLAYS TRAFFIC SIGNALS

AUTOMOTIVE MOBILE LCD BACKLIGHT

OTHERS

ILLUMINATION


ILLUMINATION: 2008 NEW YEAR BALL

Lumiled web site


ILLUMINATION….Contd

LED Magazine


INTERIOR STRUCTURE OF ‘NEW YEAR BALL’

Lumiled web site


ILLUMINATION

-

LED Magazine



LED Magazine



LED Magazine



-

Refrigerated show case

GE Web site



LED Magazine



LED Magazine


GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY

Daktronics Web site-Longhorn stadium, University of Texas

1,750,272 LEDs55’ x 134’



LED Magazine- 3rd Ring Road, Beijing-Barco



Daktronics web site-Dolphin’s stadium



LED Magazine-Daktronics Time Square



LED Magazine-Toronto Tower-Cree



LED Magazine -Street Lighting-Toronto


AUTOMOTIVE-HEAD LAMP

LED Magazine


LED HEAD LAMP

Hella web site


LCD TV LIT BY LED BACKLIGHT


BACKLIGHT MARKET9.2 B LEDs by 2010

Developed from:


PENETRATION OF ‘LED BACKLIGHT

Jennifer Colgrove-SID Display Applications confce, 2007

. Notebook PCLCD TV

LCD MonitorOther Appln

Q107Q406 Q307Q207 Q108Q407 Q208 Q308

4%

3%

2%

1%

Mar

ket

pn

etra

tio

n


GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST FOR ‘HB LEDs’

.

($M

)

Developed form-Source: Strategies in Light ‘07

1,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2010 20112007 2008 2009

Latest: in 2010, $10.6B


SIGNS AND DISPLAYS.

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

($M

)

8511170

1489

2339

3403

20082007 20102009 2011

Developed from -Source: Strategies in Light ‘07


GENERAL ILLUMINATION

.

($M

)

200

1000

800

600

400

461

322

875

612

2007 2008 2009 2010Developed from-Source: Strategies in Light ‘07


PRICE BARRIER FOR LED

Lamp Lumin Flux Power Price

Incand 655 lm 65 W $3

CFL 750 lm 15 W $4

LED 680 lm 17 W $100

Developed from -Strategies in Light 2007


COST CUTTING MEASURES

• SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN EFFICIENCY REQUIRES LESS NUMBER OF LEDs-EXAMPLE CELL PHONE

• 6” WAFER COMING IN TO MANUFACTURING LINE

• GLASS WAFERS BEING EXPLORED

• MARKET PRESSURE


MAJOR PLAYERS AND LICENSES


OLED


OLED: MAJOR PLAYERS

. Kodak (small Molecule)

UDC (Phosphorescent)

Sumitomo Chemical -CDT (Polymer)

1. Pioneer2CMEL3Samsung SDI4Samsung SEC5Toppoly6CPT7LG Philips8Tohoku Devices9Fujitsu Electric Holding1Univision Tech Inc., Taiwan1Orion OLED Co., Korea

1. Pioneer –2. Mitsubishi

Chemicals3 Samsung

SDI(LTPS)4 Samsung

Electronics (40” a-Si AMOLED)

5 Sony6 Epson7 Toyota Industries8 Olight9 AUO10.CMEL11.LG Philips12. Konica-Minota

Micro-emissive displays (MED)2Delta Optroelectronics-MP33Cyclotech AMT-Pain relief device4Philips-shaver5Dai Nippon-Epson demo 40”6Samsung SEC7Sharp8Toppon Printing 9National University of Singapore1CDT/Litrex/ULVAC114” at CDT(a-Si)


OLED REVENUE FORECAST

OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)

PM $528M 650M 700M 745M -- -- --

AM OLED $675M 1.95B 3.25B 3.95B -- -- --

(iSupply-December 2007)

OLED TV $2M $2M $10M $50M $200M $600M $1.4B


OLED SHIPMENT FORECAST

OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013

(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)

PM OLED 88M 113M 135M 158M -- -- --

AM OLED 31M 99M 184M 215M -- -- --

(iSupply –Dec 2007)

OLED TV 3K 3K 50K 100K 250K 1.2M2.8M


2’ X 2’ ORGANIC WHITE PANEL LIGHTING

Duggal et.al: SID-06 Digest


OLED TECHNICAL BARRIERS

• Image burn-in (Image sticking)

• Long Life reported only in labs and in test samples and not established in manufactured product

• Life ages faster than other colors

• Long delays in promised product introduction

• Some companies closed due to technical barriers

• Major Backplane problem (a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT


AM OLED: a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT

Parameter a-Si TFT LTPS TFTMobility Low, high power high, integ

poor apert ratio Integ driver easy

Uniformity Good Vth. Variation-compen

Stability Vth. Shifts Good

Large displayMfg OK (Gen 7) Problem with Gen 4

Mask step 4 or 5 6 or 7

Manufacturability Excellent Maturing

TFT for OLED is still a manufacturing problem

Kyuha Chung et.al- ID Magazine 2/2006


KONICA MINOLTA ‘OLED’ LAMP

OLED-info.com; also various sources.Efficiency: 64 lm/w


40” OLED PROTOTYPE (SAMSUNG)

Info-OLED.com-web site


COMMERCIAL 11” ‘OLED TV’-SONY

Robert Jan Visser:SID-Display Applications Conference 2007


CHARACTERISTICS OF SONY 11” OLED TV

(PERSONAL) • Thickness: 3 mm

• Contrast: 1:1,000,000 (LCD-1:17,000)

• Color gamut: 108% NTSC in u’v’-plane

• Pixel: 960 x 540

• Life: 30,000 hrs

• Brightness-not given

• Power consumption: 45 W

• Cost: $1800


INK-JET PRINTED 13” POLYMER OLED TV

FPM Budzelaar et.al-Journal of SID, 14/15, 2006


BENDABLE ‘OLED’



FLEXIBLE ‘OLED’



OUTLOOK FOR LED AND OLEDLED:• MARKET POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING AND

BACKLIGHTING IS BRIGHT• TECHNICALLY SUPERIOR• PENENTRATION BARRIER IS ‘PRICE’

OLED:• TECHNOLOGY BARRIER AND PRICE BARRIER

EXIST• PRESSURE FROM LCD IS HUGE • TEST MARKETING FOR OLED TV JUST STARTED• MANUFACTURING IS YET TO MATURE


Appendix


LIGHT ‘TRAPPING’

LED Magazine, Aug. 2006


NOVEL LED STRUCTURE ----Contd

Developed from Lumiled/Philips-Flip chip assembly – Strategies in Light 2007


FAMOUS BLUE LED

Naoki Shibata- Asia Display/IDW ’01, Proceedings of 21st IDRC /8th International display workshop,- pp. 1036-1038, Oct. 16-19, 2001, Nagoya, Japan.


CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION TEMPERATURE

Φ (T2) = Φ (T1). Є- k∆T,

Φ (T2) is the luminous flux at junction temperature T2,

Φ (T1) is the luminous flux at junction temperature T1,

k is temperature coefficient and ∆T is the change in junction temperature.


CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION TEMPERATURE

λ d (T jf) = λ d (Tji) + ∆Tj . 0.1 (nm / 0C)

λ d Dominant wavelength

Tjf the new junction temperature,

Tji is the initial junction temperature

and ∆Tj is the change in junction temperature.

In other words for every 10 C raise in junction temperature there is a change of 1 nm in dominant wavelength λ d.


CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION TEMPERATURE…Contd

LED Magazine


Cost vs performance

Lumiled web site


KEY WHITE LED PATENT(US Patent# 5,998,925 by Nichia)

A light emitting device, comprising a light emitting…… …component comprises a nitride

compound semiconductor:

Ini Gaj Alk N; (i+j+k = 1)at least one element selected from the group consisting

of Y, Lu, Se, La, Gd and Sm, and 2) at least one element selected from the group consisting of Al, Ga

and In, and being activated with cerium.

YAG: Ce


REMOTE PLASMA ‘CVD’ ON GLASS WAFER

Developed from-Bluglass web site


REMOTE PLASMA CVD-Bluglass Company)

•Lower growth temperatures < 700C

•Low cost substrates (Glass)

•Thinner devices (0.5 μm LED layer)

•No Ammonia

•Lower material consumption

•Large area deposition easily scalable (6”, 8”)


GaN: GLASS WAFER



COMPARISON OF SPECTRUM



GLASS WAFER: LIGHT EMISSION

Bluglass web site


TWO LAYER WHITE ‘OLED’

Luminance at 5V : 17000 cd/m2 Luminous efficiency at100 cd/m2 : 15 lm/wCIE : x = 0.3; y = 0.38

Yasuhisa Kishigami et.al-Asia Display/IDW’01, Japan

Light


THREE ‘OLEDS’ IN SERIES

Luminance :10,000 cd/m2Current density :7.5 mA/cm2 Operating voltage :40 VQuantum efficiency :75 cd/A

Toshio Matsumoto et.al- SID’ 03 Digest


TYPICAL ‘OLED’ LAYERS

GLGi: LED and OLED Market Trends President & Managing Member Organic Lighting Technologies, LLC.

Documents