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FINANCIALS FUNDRAISING & TERM-SHEETS GITANJALI SWAMY 1
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  • FINANCIALS FUNDRAISING & TERM-SHEETS GITANJALI SWAMY

    1

  • STRATEGIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Definition: the application of financial techniques to strategic decisions in order to help achieve the decision-maker's objectives

    Strategy: a carefully devised plan of action to achieve a goal, or

    the art of developing or carrying out such a plan

    Finance: the business or art of managing the monetary resources of an organisation

    Management: the organising and controlling of the affairs of an organisation or a particular sector of an organisation

    2 Source: TBD

  • STRATEGY FROM HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL Fundamental to the success of any company and to any effort to develop strategy is having a proper goal for business clearly

    Purpose: How will your organisation achieve its desired financial position?

    To achieve this, you must ask:

    WHAT future position do you aim to reach? WHERE are you now? HOW - are you going to get there?

    3

  • BREAKING THE STRATEGY DOWN

    Immediate needs

    Short Term requirements

    Medium/ Long Term Requirements

    4

  • IMMEDIATE NEEDS

    Cash Pressures: Income Flows; Expenditure; and Capital/ one off expenditure

    Resources it can utilise

    Current position ensure this is correct before moving on

    5

  • SHORT TERM REQUIREMENTS 6-12 month plan

    Action points to turn these into financial strategy

    Realism

    Cash and accrual budgets for next ,and following 5 years

    Systems in place to support the strategy

    Alignment of strategy with corporate plan

    6

  • MEDIUM / LONG TERM REQUIREMENTS

    Income streams new/ different?

    Expenditure investment into future income streams. Address the imbalance of revenues and expenditure

    Finance what type is most suitable?

    Reporting and managing the strategy

    7

  • TOOLS OF THE TRADE

    8

    KPIs

    Financial Statements

    Cash Flows

    Forecasts

    Project Budgets

    Mment Reports

    Budgets

    Business/ corporate

    plan

    TOOLS

  • SALES FORECAST EXAMPLE Months Jan Feb Mar TotalProduct/Service #1

    Units Sold 30 40 50 120Price per Unit $300 $300 $300 $300Total Sales $9,000 $12,000 $15,000 $36,000Product/Service #2Units Sold 70 70 80 220Price per Unit $500 $500 $500 $500Total Sales $35,000 $35,000 $40,000 $110,000Product/Service #3Units Sold 2 2 2 6Price per Unit $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000Total Sales $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $18,000

    Total-All Product/Service Sales $50,000 $53,000 $61,000 $164,000 9

  • COST OF PROJECTED PRODUCT UNITS SOLD BUDGET

    Months Jan Feb Mar TotalProduct #1Units Sold 30 40 50 120Cost per Unit $45 $45 $45 $45Total Cost $1,350 $1,800 $2,250 $5,400Product #2Units Sold 70 70 80 220Cost per Unit $150 $150 $150 $150Total Cost $10,500 $10,500 $12,000 $33,000Product #3Units Sold 2 2 2 6Cost per Unit $300 $300 $300 $300Total Cost $600 $600 $600 $1,800

    All ProductsTotal Cost $12,450 $12,900 $14,850 $40,200

    10

  • GROWTH (OR START-UP) EXPENSES

    11

    A Cash Available Now1 Purchase fixed assets( Land, equip., building, vehicles)

    (See Fixed Assets Acquisition Budget Worksheet)2 Remodeling costs (fixtures, signs, paint, cleaning)3 Installation fees (equip., phones, leased equip.)4 Deposits (utilities, lease, phone, leased equip.)5 Fees and licenses, certifications6 Special one-time legal fees (specifically for growth/start-up)7 Special accounting and/or other professional fees8 Pre-opening labor expense9 Pre-opening training costs

    10 Beginning inventory of merchandise or materials11 Supplies (letterhead, forms, price tags)12 Promotion (grand opening, prizes, give-aways)13 Advertising (initial media, direct mail, coupons)14 Other rxpenses (one-time, specifically related to growth/start-up):

    14a14b14c14dB. Total Growth (or Start-up) ExpensesC. (A - B ) Beginning Cash Balance

    Cost

  • FINANCIAL WORKSHEETS COMPLETED

    Salaries/Wages & Benefits (Fully loaded including payroll taxes) Consultants Marketing Budget Overhead Expense Miscellaneous Expense Sales Forecast Cost of Projected Product Units Sold Fixed Assets Growth (or Start-up) Expenses Existing Debt

    12

  • FIXED EXPENSES (COSTS)

    13

    $0

    $2,000

    $4,000

    $6,000

    0 100 200 300 400

    Number of Product/Service Units Sold

    Fix

    ed E

    xp

    ense

    s (C

    ost

    s)

  • VARIABLE EXPENSES (COSTS)

    14

    $0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    0 100 200 300 400

    Number of Product/Service Units Sold

    Var

    iab

    le E

    xp

    ense

    s (C

    ost

    s)

  • BREAK-EVEN

    15

  • Past

    Future We Create

    Future We Accept

    Present Traditional extrapolation

    Future-based migration path

    Stretch

    Fit

    Future Were Exposed to

    WORK BACK FROM THE FUTURE

    16

  • PUTTING IT TOGETHER: THE CASH FLOW CURVE

    17

    Cumulative Cash Flow in $

    Time

    Burn Rate

    Date of First Cash Flow Positive

    Maximum Financing Needs

    Date of Cumulative Cash Breakeven

  • PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: SOURCES & USES

    18

  • NEW VENTURE MODELS

    19

    Seed Product Dvpt. Market Dvpt.

    Estabd. Business

    Stages

    Concept

    Independent Start-Up

    Business Unit Marketing Engineering

    Self - funded Acquisition

    Venture Capital Funding

    Spinout Internal Joint Venture Strategic Alliance

    Corporate Ventures

    Source: TBD

  • WHAT IS PRIVATE EQUITY? Private Equity is an asset class consisting of securities in operating companies that are not publicly traded. Investments in private equity most often involve either an investment of capital into an operating company or the acquisition of an operating company.

    20

    Source: TBD

  • PRIVATE EQUITY VALUE ADD VS. STAGE

    21

    Research Seed/ Project Finance

    Venture Early Stage

    Mid/Late Venture

    Growth Equity

    Buyout Public Market

    Pipe

    Gui

    danc

    e Str

    ateg

    y &

    Fu

    ndra

    isin

    g

    Prod

    uct/S

    ervi

    ce

    Man

    agem

    ent

    Bus

    ines

    s D

    evel

    opm

    ent

    Sale

    s

    Mar

    com

    Fina

    ncia

    l En

    gine

    erin

    g

    Plan

    ning

    Cor

    pora

    te

    Fina

    nce

    IP

    Prod

    uct

    Plan

    Ea

    rly

    Rev

    enue

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    fit

    Leve

    rage

    Ope

    ratio

    ns

    P(success) = 30% Reqd IRR = 100%

    P(success) = 40% Reqd IRR = 70%

    P(success) = 50% Reqd IRR = 50%

    P(success) = 80% Reqd IRR = 30%

    Idea is Feasible

    Technology Works

    Customer Buys

    Product Stable

    Market Expansion

    Valuation Risk Source: Dr. Gitanjali Swamy, MGMT-E2790 Lectures, Harvard University 2011

  • PRIVATE EQUITY

    22

    Venture Capital: Pre-protability, high growth or

    disrup8ve technology Dominant posi8on - Typical 20-50%

    ownership Pro-rata investment Use of term sheets to mi8gate risk

    and guarantee return Board control Valua8on is what someone else will

    pay for it

    Growth Equity: Growth, Expansion Minority posi8on in high growth Growing, protable, rst ins8tu8onal Valua8on is typically based on more

    conven8onal models

    Leveraged Buyouts: Protable, Pre-leverage Control posi8on Typical 80-100%

    ownership Use of commercial paper (debt)

    Returns through levering capital structure to greater eciency (ITS etc.)

    Leverage of 70-80%

    Corporate VC: Strategic synergies: Strategic rather than nancial metrics Invest in companies Returns through parent market

    advantage Minority or control

    Others: Angel, Mezz Debt

    MGMT-E2790, Harvard University, Alternatives: Private Equity, Dr. Gitanjali M. Swamy

  • INVESTMENT PROCESS

    FILTER Investment Thesis Fit Financial Returns Analysis - Stage Risk/Return, IRR - P&L, Cashflow, EBITDA, Growth Firm fit - Stage - Leverage strength Readiness & Milestones

    TARGET LIST

    RE- EXAMINE PURSUE

    DILIGENCE Quality: Pattern Recognition People: Evaluation Management team Opportunity Market size Competition Product Business Model Context Market timing Market growth Market disruption Deal Financials Price & Valuation Capitalization Structure

    THESIS BUILDING

    ZUCI PROPRIETARY & ADVISORY NETWORK

    ACADEMIA

    INTERMEDIARIES

    LARGE COMPANIES ADVISORY INCUBATION

    SOURCES

    Investment Committee one pager Financial Risk/Return Evaluation Portfolio Strategy Fit

    Investment Committee Diligence Go Ahead

    Investment Committee/Team Presentation Deal team detailed investment proposal Investment Committee/Team Recommendations to Deal Team

    Investment Committee Emergency Veto on Terms

    NEGOTIATION Structure - Common equity - Convertible preferred - Common Debt - Convertible preferred Economics - Pre/Post Money Valuation - Cumulative dividends - Pro-rata investment Governance - Board seat - Veto and approval rights Downside Protection - Liquidation preference - Auto conversion - Redemption Exit -IPO/ Strategic Sale - Tag along rights

    Final Decision: Deal Partner

    23

  • TERM SHEET: STRUCTURE Common equity: Issue is investor protection

    Suppose A takes $10M for biz plan from investor B for 50% Next day A liquidates company and distributes $5M to B !!

    Convertible preferred: Most common

    Key question is conversion price Typically conversion price is re-adjusted with dilution Many types of anti-dilutive strategies

    Common Debt: Stringent interest rates

    Typically converts at valuation of next round with interest rate

    24

  • TERM SHEET: ECONOMICS Pre/Post Money Valuation

    Pre-Money= before investment Post-Money=after investment Valuation is an art form

    Cumulative dividends Dividends are rare in institutional Private Equity But buyback/dividends is an underutilized form of exit

    Pro-rata investment Very common in VCs = Handcuffs Guarantees investor rights in future rounds Pro-rata = in proportion to current ownership

    Interest rate and conversion: For debt structures

    25

  • TERM SHEET: GOVERNANCE Board seat

    Typically Private Equity Investors need at least one Often have representation in relation to ownership In extreme cases have board control But creates conflict and moral hazard if they are also subsequent

    investors

    Veto and approval rights Require special approvals on large expenditure > $50k Require veto rights allowing them to overturn board decisions on

    certain key aspects such as CEO selection, dilution etc.

    26

  • TERM SHEET: DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Liquidation preference

    1x = Simple preference 2x = double dipping etc.

    Anti-dilution provisions

    Full ratchet = full preservation % of investor ownership Weighted average = partial preservation % of investor ownership

    Auto conversion

    Automatic conversion of preferred into common at IPO or acquisition

    27

  • TERM SHEET: EXIT Registration Rights

    Demand Rights: Require registration (for an IPO) after a certain period. May list S-3 registration or piggy-back rights on all company registration

    Tag Along Rights: Enables the investor to tag along on any stock sale

    Drag Along Rights: Enables the investors to force or drag the investor to sell their shares if needed

    Right of First Refusal: The investor has the first right to buy any equity offered by the company at a price. Redemption Rights: Require that the company redeem or buy-back a certain % of preferred by specified date

    28

  • TERM SHEET: OTHER Reserved or employee pools:

    Typically set aside 10-20% and avoid investor dilution

    NDA and Non-compete for employees, founders Key employee contracts and Key Man insurance Vestation clauses: typically 4-5 vestation of equity with a first year cliff vestation. Expenses and timelimits

    29

  • MANAGEMENT DIRECTORS, INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS AND VC DIRECTORS Management directors (usually 1-2)

    must maintain open communications provide timely, adequate and pertinent information delivering both good and bad news promptly in a balanced manner. prepare board meetings to enable in depth conversation respond positively to board input.

    Independent directors

    work as a team with fellow board members serve as a sounding board and mentor to the CEO. chair or participate on board committees mediate between management and investor directors serving as

    disinterested directors.

    30

  • MANAGEMENT DIRECTORS, INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS AND VC DIRECTORS VC Directors must

    understand the competitive position maintain awareness of developments in industry sectors. help companies close business outside the board room, share company knowledge from the portfolio experiences contribute knowledge plus experience during liquidity events. lead role in financing. attract management team members It is critical for VC directors to understand and differentiate

    between their responsibilities as directors and their role within a particular fund.

    31

  • TRANCHES OF INVESTMENT

    32

    Round A B C D E F Date 20-Jan-95 20-Jan-95 30-Sep-95 30-Apr-96 24-Oct-97 31-Jul-98

    Amount $ 600,025.00 $ 999,975.00 $ 1,000,002.00 $ 7,000,000.00 $ 11,750,000.00 $ 12,000,000.00 Price/common share N/A N/A $ 1.05 $ 1.62 $ 6.00 $ 6.75

    In event of liquidation or sale

    Paid out after Series B-F

    Paid out after Series C-F

    If not converted, paid out after Series D-F

    If not converted, paid out after Series E & F

    If not converted, paid out after Series F AND participates prorata in common

    If not converted, paid out after liabilities AND participates prorata in common

    In event of IPO No change No change Converts to common Converts to common Converts to common Converts to common Voluntary conversion to common Not convertible Not convertible

    Convertible with >66 2/3% vote of round

    Convertible with >80% vote of round

    Convertible with >80% vote of round

    Convertible with >80% vote of round

    Dividend

    Immediate quarterly payments of LIBOR + 1%

    After Jan. 1, 2000, annual payments of 8% face value

    After Jan. 1, 2000, annual payments of 8% face value

    After Jan. 1, 2000, annual payments of 8% face value

    After Jan. 1, 2000, annual payments of 8% face value

    After Jan. 1, 2000, annual payments of 8% face value

    Mandatory redemption?

    Yes: 3 equal annual increments beginning January 17, 2000

    Yes: 3 equal annual increments beginning January 17, 2000 No No No No

    Anti-dilution Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

    Demand registration rights

    Demand rights granted upon request of >50% of Series A-D

    Demand rights granted upon request of >50% of Series A-D

    Demand rights granted at the earliest of (a) July 31, 1999, (b) six months after IPO or (c) the request of >50% of Series A-D

    Demand rights granted at the earliest of (a) July 31, 1999, (b) six months after IPO or (c) the request of >50% of Series A-D

    Demand rights granted at the earliest of (a) July 31, 1999, (b) six months after IPO or (c) the request of >50% of Series E

    Demand rights granted at the earliest of (a) July 31, 1999, (b) six months after IPO or (c) the request of >50% of Series F

    Source: Metapath Case, Harvard Business Review

  • CAPITALIZATION STRUCTURE

    33

    STOCK

    Preferred Stock Common

    Warrants & Options

    Names C D E Total CE %

    Bessemer 955,416 1,015,386 166,667 1,432,500 264,410 3,834,379 27.23% Norwest 2,461,542 435,833 260,282 3,157,657 22.42% Northwest Networks, Inc. 2,317,500 2,317,500 16.46% USVP 769,230 125,000 3,372 897,602 6.37% Michael Tennican 61,542 124,206 185,748 1.32% Other E Shareholders 1,230,832 1,230,832 8.74% Silicon Valley Bank 3,792 3,792 0.03% Stock Purchases under option plans 711,874 711,874 5.05% Outstanding Options 1,743,200 1,743,200 12.38%

    TOTAL 955,416 4,307,700 1,958,332 4,461,874 2,399,262 14,082,584

    Source: Metapath Case, Harvard Business Review

  • EXIT SCENARIOS

    34

    SALE Extra CE from participation Total CE % Value of holdings Multiple

    Bessemer 143,334 3,977,713 25% $ 27,751,326 5.97 Norwest 374,819 3,532,476 22% $ 24,645,034 3.73 Northwest Networks, Inc. - 2,317,500 15% $ 16,168,510 161.64 USVP 107,501 1,005,103 6% $ 7,012,303 3.51 Michael Tennican - 185,748 1% $ 1,295,909 12.96 Other E Shareholders 1,058,522 2,289,354 15% $ 15,972,141 2.16 Silicon Valley Bank - 3,792 0% $ 26,456 Stock Purchases under option plans - 711,874 5% $ 4,966,534 Outstanding Options - 1,743,200 11% $ 12,161,789

    Total 15,766,759 $ 110,000,000

    Sale assumptions: Price of sale: 110 M ($)

    Value of common w/o participation $ 7.81 Value of common w/ participation $ 6.98

    (participation taken in stock)

    Source: Metapath Case, Harvard Business Review

  • UNDERSTANDING VALUATION VCPE Investment Valuation is a combination:

    Return requirements for PE fund Stage or Risk of Investment Use of Debt Capital Milestones/progress Comparables in PE market (Transactions) Comparables in Public market (IPOs) Comparables in M&A Negotiation capabilities of each party

    35

  • VALUATION: VENTURE

    36

    Investment Rounds! Stage 1! Stage 2! Investment Amount! $5.0 ! $10.0 ! Required Stage 1 ROR! 50.0%! 30.0%! Years to Terminal Stage! 5.0 ! 3.0 ! Shares outstanding before investment! 1,000,000 ! !

    ! ! ! ! ! ! Terminal Stage!

    Terminal Management Share! 10.0%! Terminal Sales! $100.0 !MM! Terminal Net Margin! 5.0%! Terminal PER! 20.0 !X! Terminal Value of Enterprise! $ 100.0 !MM Return of Stage 1 Principal! $0.0 !MM! Return of Stage 2 Principal! $0.0 !MM!

    Terminal Calculations! Stage 1! Stage 2! Total!

    Total Terminal Value ! $38.0 ! $22.0 ! $ 100.0 !MM Return of Principal ! $ - ! $ - ! ! Equity Value Required ! $38.0 ! $22.0 ! !

    ! ! ! ! Terminal Share! Stage 1! Stage 2! !

    Equity Ownership ! 38.0%! 22.0%! ! Pre-Money Valuation ! 38.0%! 22.0%! !

    ! ! ! ! Management Terminal Value ! 10.0 ! ! !

  • UNDERSTANDING VALUATION

    Simple Two Stage Investment!! ! ! ! !Shares Outstanding (000's)! Founder! Stage 1! Stage 2! Terminal!Founder! 1,000 ! 1,000 ! 1,000 ! 1,000 !Stage 1! ! 1,263 ! 1,263 ! 1,263 !Stage 2! ! ! 731 ! 731 !Management! ! ! ! 333 !Total! 1,000 ! 2,263 ! 2,994 ! 3,327 !! ! ! ! !Equity Ownership %! Founder! Stage 1! Stage 2! Terminal!Founder! 100.0%! 44.2%! 33.4%! 30.1%!Stage 1! ! 55.8%! 42.2%! 38.0%!Stage 2! ! ! 24.4%! 22.0%!Management! ! ! ! 10.0%!Total! 100.0%! 100.0%! 100.0%! 100.0%!! ! ! ! !Pre-Money Valuation ($MM)! ! Stage 1! Stage 2! Terminal!Founder! ! 4.0 ! 13.7 ! 30.1 !Stage 1! ! 5.0 ! 17.3 ! 38.0 !Stage 2! ! ! 10.0 ! 22.0 !Management! ! ! ! 10.0 !Total! ! 9.0 ! 41.0 ! 100.0 !! ! ! ! !Share Price! ! $3.96 ! $13.68 ! $30.06 !

    37

  • VALUATION: BUYOUT

    38

    Source: Yell Acquistion Case, Harvard Business Review

    Yell: Cross Border LBO Analysis Media, Buyout

    Figures in $MM unless otherwise stated

    Students of Finc-190, Gitanjali Swamy

    Valua8on in pounds 1500

    Uses of Funds $MM % Sources of Funds $MM % Mult. Base Drivers

    Enterprise Value $2,185.5 95.2% Debt $1,584.5 69.0% 20.6x Interest Rate 8.0%

    Transac8on Fees $109.3 5.0% Equity $710.3 31.0% 9.2x Apax/Hicks-Muse Preferred Return 0.0%

    Total Uses $2,294.8 100.2% Total Sources $2,294.8 100.0% 29.8x Management Op8ons 10.0%

    MulMples EBITDA Revenue Equity Sources $MM % Exit AssumpMons

    -1 Entry Mult. 28.9x 1.9x Apax/Hicks-Muse Inv. $658.4 92.7% Exit Year 2007

    2007 Exit Mult. 28.4x 1.8x Mgmt. Inv. $51.9 7.3% Exit Mul8ple 14.1x

    Total Equity $710.3 100.0%

    Revenue Compression 5.0% Investment MulMple 2.2 x

    EBITDA Margin Compression 5.0%

  • VALUATION: BUYOUT

    39

    Actual ProjecMons Further 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    Income Statement: Revenue 976.8 1,131.6 1,226.8 1,347.9 1,467.3 1,580.2 1,726.6 1,845.9 Growth, % 15.9% 8.4% 9.9% 8.9% 7.7% 9.3% 6.9%

    EBITDA 61.5 75.5 77.0 99.0 126.2 132.8 157.3 180.5 Margin, % 6.3% 6.7% 6.3% 7.3% 8.6% 8.4% 9.1% 9.8%

    Deprecia8on - 8.06 14.82 15.17 20.80 19.67 19.93 19.66 19.66

    EBITA - 53.4 60.7 61.8 78.2 106.6 112.9 137.6 160.8

    Interest Expense - - - 126.8 116.8 106.8 96.8 86.8 76.8

    Pre-tax Income - 53.4 60.7 (64.9) (38.6) (0.2) 16.1 50.8 84.0

    Taxes 37.5% - 20.0 22.8 - - - 6.0 19.1 31.5

    Net Income - 33.4 37.9 (64.9) (38.6) (0.2) 10.1 31.8 52.5 Margin, % 3.4% 3.4% -5.3% -2.9% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 2.8%

    Cash Flow Statement: Net Income - 33.4 37.9 (64.9) (38.6) (0.2) 10.1 31.8 52.5

    Plus: Deprecia8on - 8.1 14.8 15.2 20.8 19.7 19.9 19.7 19.7 Less: Increase in Working Capital - 15.4 18.6 3.2 8.7 12.4 9.2 6.4 2.9 Less: Capital Expenditures - 14.5 21.2 25.5 22.9 21.6 21.2 19.7 19.7

    Free Cash Flow to Pay Debt - 42.4 50.1 (72.1) (31.9) 10.2 18.0 38.1 55.5

    Source: Yell Acquistion Case, Harvard Business Review

  • UNDERSTANDING PE VALUATION: BUYOUT

    40

    Actual ProjecMons Further 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    Free Cash Flow to Pay Debt - 42.4 50.1 (72.1) (31.9) 10.2 18.0 38.1 55.5

    Debt: BOY Net Debt 1,584.5 1,459.6 1,334.7 1,209.8 1,084.9 960.1 Debt Paydown 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 EOY Debt 1,459.6 1,334.7 1,209.8 1,084.9 960.1 835.2

    % Interest Rate 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

    Equity Returns - 2007: Exit Year EBITDA 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5

    Mul8ple 13.1 x 13.6 x 14.1 x 14.6 x 15.1 x 15.6 x 16.1 x 16.6 x Total Enterprise Value 2,359.5 2,449.7 2,539.9 2,630.2 2,720.4 2,810.6 2,900.9 2,991.1

    Less: Net Debt 960.1 960.1 960.1 960.1 960.1 960.1 960.1 960.1 Less: Apax/Hicks-Muse Preferred Dividends - - - - - - - -

    Common Equity Value 1,399.4 1,489.6 1,579.9 1,670.1 1,760.3 1,850.6 1,940.8 2,031.0 Apax/Hicks-Muse Equity 1,259.5 1,340.7 1,421.9 1,503.1 1,584.3 1,665.5 1,746.7 1,827.9 Mgmt. Op8ons 139.9 149.0 158.0 167.0 176.0 185.1 194.1 203.1 Apax/Hicks-Muse Total Proceeds 1,259.5 1,340.7 1,421.9 1,503.1 1,584.3 1,665.5 1,746.7 1,827.9 Mul8ple of Ini8al Equity 1.8 x 1.9 x 2.0 x 2.1 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.6 x

    Source: Yell Acquistion Case, Harvard Business Review

  • EXIT STATISTICS

    41

    Exits 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060-100MM+ M&A 90 111 100 127 141 133 123 106 166 127 127100-250MM+ M&A 20 17 30 38 67 30 15 15 26 33 29250-500MM+ M&A 7 7 8 21 33 10 5 2 9 16 17500MM+ M&A 5 1 1 9 38 3 2 1 3 2 3

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060-100MM+ IPO 84 38 5 2 0 2 0 1 2 5 5100-250MM+ IPO 99 60 34 72 38 7 7 8 30 19 16250-500MM+ IPO 18 16 23 98 78 9 7 9 25 11 17500MM+ IPO 10 6 10 85 89 7 6 4 11 7 6

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060-100MM+ M&A/IPO 174 149 105 129 141 135 123 107 168 132 132100-250MM+ M&A/IPO 119 77 64 110 105 37 22 23 56 52 45250-500MM+ M&A/IPO 25 23 31 119 111 19 12 11 34 27 34500MM+ M&A/IPO 15 7 11 94 127 10 8 5 14 9 9

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006250MM+ M&A 12 8 9 30 71 13 7 3 12 18 20250MM+ IPO 28 22 33 183 167 16 13 13 36 18 23250MM+ IPO and M&A 37 30 40 213 236 28 19 16 47 31 39250MM+ IPO 3 Yr Rolling Sum 0 0 78 228 333 310 144 28 38 40 46

  • ALL MEDICAL DEVICE IPOS

    Sort Id Company Name Close Date Year Series

    Amount Raised (USD) Post Value (USD) Coding

    179 Adeza Biomedical 10-Dec-04 2004 60 292.01 Medical Devices/Equipment

    303 Align Technology 26-Jan-01 2001 130 629.05 Medical Devices/Equipment

    428 Animas 20-May-04 2004 63.75 319.08 Medical Devices/Equipment

    577 Aspect Medical Systems 27-Jan-00 2000 52.5 290 Medical Devices/Equipment

    871 Bruker AXS 14-Dec-01 2001 58.5 366.69 Medical Devices/Equipment

    917 Caliper Technologies 14-Dec-99 1999 72 390 Medical Devices/Equipment

    1277 Conor Medsystems 14-Dec-04 2004 78 486.78 Medical Devices/Equipment

    1400 CTI Molecular Imaging 21-Jun-02 2002 182.24 779.6 Medical Devices/Equipment

    1520 DexCom 14-Apr-05 2005 56.4 338.41 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2095 FoxHollow Technologies 28-Oct-04 2004 63 355.48 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2343 Heartport 25-Apr-96 1996 105 492.3 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2424 i3 Mobile 6-Apr-00 2000 81.6 406.15 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2501 Illumina 28-Jul-00 2000 96 518.78 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2747 IntraLase 7-Oct-04 2004 81.9 401.64 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2759 Intuitive Surgical 13-Jun-00 2000 45 330.22 Medical Devices/Equipment

    2893 Kyphon 17-May-02 2002 90 637.24 Medical Devices/Equipment

    3620 Northstar Neuroscience 5-May-06 2006 106.5 391.38 Medical Devices/Equipment

    3668 NuVasive 13-May-04 2004 71.5 284.87 Medical Devices/Equipment

    3701 Ocular Sciences 5-Aug-97 1997 118.8 387.85 Medical Devices/Equipment

    3837 ORATEC Interventions 5-Apr-00 2000 56 337.09 Medical Devices/Equipment

    4543 Sequenom 31-Jan-00 2000 136.5 610 Medical Devices/Equipment

    4690 Sonic Innovations 2-May-00 2000 50.4 300.8 Medical Devices/Equipment

    4994 Therasense 12-Oct-01 2001 114 712.5 Medical Devices/Equipment

    5518 Volcano 15-Jun-06 2006 54.4 297.36 Medical Devices/Equipment

    5641 Wright Medical Group 13-Jul-01 2001 93.75 397.79 Medical Devices/Equipment 42

  • DISTRIBUTION OF LARGE M&A

    250MM+ M&A (Carlyle Subsegment w /o Healthcare)

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Other

    Physical Security

    Information Services

    Cons/Bus Services

    Communications & Netw orks

    Semiconductors

    Storage

    IT Security

    Infrastructure Softw are

    Application Softw are

    Wireless

    Consumer Internet and Media

    43 Source: TBD

  • DISTRIBUTION OF LARGE IPOS

    250MM+ IPO (Carlyle Subsegment w/o Healthcare)

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Other

    Physical Security

    Information Services

    Cons/Bus Services

    Communications & Netw orks

    Semiconductors

    Storage

    IT Security

    Infrastructure Softw are

    Application Softw are

    Wireless

    Consumer Internet and Media

    44

  • Capital

    FUNDING TO MILESTONES AKA OLD-FASHIONED VENTURE CAPITAL

    Risk ()

    Valuation

    Idea is Feasible

    Technology Works

    A Customer Buys

    Seed Funding

    R&D Capital

    Go-to-Market Captial

    Expansion Captial

    P(success) = 30% Reqd IRR = 100%

    P(success) = 40% Reqd IRR = 70%

    P(success) = 50% Reqd IRR = 50%

    P(success) = 80% Reqd IRR = 30%

    45

    Source: Vinod Khosla Presentation 2003

  • THE FULLY FUNDED FOLLY A Customer Buys

    Fully Fund

    IPO (.pray.)

    Capital Risk ()

    Valuation

    Idea is Feasible

    Technology Works

    46

    Source: TBD

    Source: Vinod Khosla Presentation 2003

  • A GENERIC EARLY 90S MODEL Round Type Date Amount Raised (MM)

    Pre-Money Valuation (MM) IRR Multiple

    1 Seed Jan-90 $ 0.50 $ 2 101% 32.53 2 1st Jan-91 $ 3.00 $ 10 70% 8.13 3 2nd Jan-92 $ 8.00 $ 32 50% 3.30 4 3rd Jan-94 $ 13.50 $ 100 32% 1.32 5 IPO Jan-95 $ 150

    Total Private Capital $ 25 Million

    47

    Source: Vinod Khosla Presentation 2003

  • A GENERIC LATE 90S MODEL Round Type Date Amount Raised (MM)

    Pre-Money Valuation (MM) IRR Multiple

    1 Seed Jan-97 $ 5 $ 35 79% 18.37 2 1st Jan-98 $ 10 $ 100 65% 7.35 3 2nd Jan-99 $ 25 $ 200 59% 4.04 4 3rd Jan-00 $ 60 $ 600 52% 1.52 5 IPO Jan-01 $ 1000

    Total Private Capital $ 100 Million $200

    ?

    48 Source: Vinod Khosla Presentation 2003

  • THOUGHT FOR THE DAY ON VALUATION

    49

  • VCS VS. TRADITIONAL METHODOLOGIES

    VCs Traditional Pre-Money/Post-Money Targets

    Cost +/ Pre-Money/Post-Money Targets

    Revenue Mul8ples Modied DCF Cost +/ M&A Value

    Discount to IPO Revenue Mul8ples Modied DCF EBITDA Mul8ples Cost +/

    EBITDA Mul8ples Price-Earnings Analysis

    Secondary Market Price Less Blockage Factors

    Pre-Money/Post-Money Targets Cost Approach

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Modied DCF (Venture) Transac8ons Analysis

    DCF Transac8ons Analysis Public Company Comparables

    DCF Transac8ons Analysis Public Company Comparables

    Price/Earnings Analysis EBITDA Mul8ples

    Secondary Market Price Less Blockage Factors

    SEED

    EARLY-STAGE

    2nd/3rd ROUNDS

    PRE-IPO

    IPO

    POST-IPO

    Source: Tuck School, Dartmouth 2007 50

  • BEST VCPE: IT ISNT EASY - HUMILITY IS KEY Best Return: Google post IPO-$50Bil, 344x

    Founders: Two graduate students (who didnt finish their Ph.D.s at Stanford)

    Ceo: Former Ceo Novell (and he did finish his Ph.D. at Berkeley) Funder: Sequoia (Mike Moritz), Kleiner, GE Capital Growth: Organic

    But Wait What if the Best VCPE firm is also the Worst VCPE firm?

    51

  • WORST VCPE: IT ISNT EASY - HUMILITY IS KEY Biggest Loss in VC : Webvan lost $800Mil

    Founders: Prior founder of Borders and Mercury Capital (MIT grad work) Ceo: Former Ceo Anderson (MBA Bradley) Funder: Sequoia (Mike Moritz), Benchmark, Goldman Growth: Organic + Acquisition

    Other interesting contenders for VC Bombs Leader: Amped ($360Mil Highland Capital Partners), Procket ($272Mil - USVP ), Pets.com ($50Mil Hummer Winblad)

    Biggest Loss in LBO: Washington Mutual lost $7Bil Funder: Texas Pacific Group

    Other interesting contenders for LBO Bombs Leader: Capmark($2Bil KKR, Goldman) EMI ($2.7Bil Terra Firma)

    52

  • SUMMARY Budgeting & Financials Fundraising Term sheet as a Roadmap Valuation

    53