Varina Delrieu: Upgrade 2008 SEEDA PhD Scholarship holder GIS toolkits for understanding GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) Varina Delrieu Bartlett School of Planning / CASA
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GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs)
GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs). Varina Delrieu Bartlett School of Planning / CASA. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic GIS toolkits for understanding socio-economic impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs)impacts of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs)
My research explores the impacts Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) have on urban communities by exploring changes in socio-demographic profile, accessibility and deprivation over time.
I am interested in sustainable development and want to know to what extent we can visually explore issues such as social-cohesion/exclusion, sustainable mobility and affordability.
I use GIS to spatially analyse data at the smallest spatio-temporal scale and look at ways that the results can be mapped to help urban planners evaluate and appraise an MUTP.
The MUTPs under study are two inter-urban railways; Channel Tunnel Rail Link ‘High-Speed 1’ and 2 hubs (Ashford and Ebbsfleet) in the UK, and KCRC West Rail Extension and 2 hubs (Tuen Mun and Yuen Long) in Hong Kong , so as to explore the effects of context on the impacts.
Study of Decision-making in Planning, Appraising and Evaluating MUTPs and their Impacts.
This project critically examines thirty international experiences in the planning, appraisal and evaluation of Mega Urban Transport Projects (MUTPs) and their impacts in the Developed World. Its overall aim is to ascertain what constitutes a ´successful mega urban transport project´ in the context of our fast changing world where visions of sustainable development are increasingly coming to the fore as a basis for assessing future development.
MUTP Definition: MUTPs are confined to post-1990 completed road, rail, bridge, tunnel or projects combining these types of links, costing in excess of US$500m (at 1990 prices), located either within urban areas or having a significant impact on urban and metropolitan development.
AIMTo create a toolkit that explores AccessibilityAccessibility, Deprivation IndicesDeprivation Indices and Demographic ProfilesDemographic Profiles as key indicators of socio-economic and change.
Utilising a range of datasets with spatial and temporal variables, the GIS will assess the effects of the MUTP and short- and long-term costs and benefits.
The synthesis of the toolkits’ outputoutput will provide a broader understanding of changes, and must be easily communicable to a wide user-group, such as policy-makers, planners and urban developers so as to play a role in the planning, appraisal and evaluation of MUTPs.
OBJECTIVES1. To identify and derive impact indicators from aggregated datasets across different
contexts
2. To clarify if ‘context is everything’ or what - if any - generic lessons for decision makers can be identified
3. To contribute to the OMEGA Centre’s question ‘What constitutes a successful MUTP?’ by discussion of the impacts, costs and benefits potentially derived from assessment of my case-studies
4. To discern what are the strengths and weaknesses in using GIS as a tool to reach the above objectives
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 1: GIS and the CONTEXT of the MUTP
• Hypothesis 1:
“Context is everything”
• Question 1a:
How can we develop GIS-based tools that enhance knowledge of a range of impacts when planning a large urban project, given the breadth of diversity in the projects’ contexts?
• Question 1b:
What is the degree of correlation between outcomes of decisions made for similar infrastructure projects in different context and how these can be compared and visualised?
• Question 1c:
How can qualitative Pre-Hypothesis Narrative Pattern Analysis data and Hypothesis-led questionnaire data from project stakeholder interviews be incorporated into a ‘map’ of the project in a meaningful way so as to enrich the quantitative datasets?
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 2: GIS and the IMPACTS of the MUTP
What is an ‘impact’?
First Order: Direct changes, cost or benefit to the natural / built environment and population caused by the project itself
Second Order: Indirect changes, cost or benefit to the natural / built environment and population, where the MUTP can be considered the most influential catalyst for the changes; i.e. outcomes attributed to first order impacts
* Ability to assess impacts is affected by SCALE, both in a geographical, and cost vs. benefit sense
• Hypothesis 2:
“GIS can draw out spatial patterning that indicates socio-economic process that can be considered impacts of MUTPs”
• Question 2:
What spatially-embedded
i) Social ii) Economic iii) Physical variables produce the most reliable and comparable indicators of the impacts of key-decisions across a wide
HYPOTHESES & RESEARCH QUESTIONSPART 3: GIS and MUTP SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES • Hypothesis 3:
“Accessibility Measures and Deprivation Indices can together provide a means to explore sustainability challenges such as social cohesion / exclusion, sustainable mobility and affordability”
• Sub-Hypothesis 3a:
“MUTPs improve social cohesion between pre-existing communities around an MUTP”• Sub-Hypothesis 3b:
“MUTPs induce social exclusion between the pre-existing communities and the newly developed communities around an MUTP”
• Questions 3a: Can aspects of sustainability through which an MUTP can be judged, be spatially analysed, especially as these are
expected to be weighted differently in terms of their importance in different spatio-temporal contexts (this refers closely to the change in the sustainability agenda over a Project’s lifespan)?
• Question 3b:
What factors can be considered to advance social exclusion?• Question 3c:
By which indices can we measure ‘affordability’ against?
Section 2 Contextual Framework: BACKGROUND TO MEGA URBAN TRANSPORT
PROJECTS AND IMPACT STUDIES
2.3 History of definitions, topics, developments, key papers and concepts, regarding planning, appraising and evaluating MUTPs Includes planning frameworks in the UK and Hong Kong
What constitutes a ‘successful’ MUTP, in the past, now and in the future…?
Sustainability challenges: spatio-temporal and politically contextual significance to my research i.e. Social Cohesion/Exclusion, Affordability and Sustainable Mobility
(Relative) Deprivation (UK); measured by the government since 1981
• ‘Carstairs Scores’ 1981 & 1991: 4 variables in Census dataset• Index of Deprivation 2000 (ID2000): released at Small Area level• Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 (IMD2004) – updated and
expanded from ID2000. Released at Super Output Area lower level • Indices of Deprivation 2007 (ID 2007): released Dec 07
Deprivation relates to the lack of a resource which is needed for a basic standard of life. There are many different types of deprivation and people can be deprived of one or more of these resources.
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
6.1.4 Boundaries: how to select and define the spatial & conceptual boundaries?
6.2 The importance of context: socio-economic, cultural, political, spatial and temporal: how are these impacting on the case-studies? Is context explaining some of the emerging issues but not others? Are there unanticipated emerging issues?
6.3 Spatio-temporal datasets data sources / issues / processing
6.4 Socio-economic datasets data sources / issues / processing
Section 4: OVERVIEW OF THE CASE STUDIES AND DATASETS
Qualitative Datasets:
Enriching the depth of contextual information for the hubs
Hypothesis-Led Interviews:More traditional method of data capture via interviews with key
stakeholders, to test hypotheses we have regarding how and why MUTPs develop as they do.
‘Hybrid’ InterviewsA combination of the above two techniques, where the Pre-
Hypothesis section in conducted first, so as not to pollute the interviewee with hypotheses.
Pre-hypothesis Narrative Pattern Analysis: Interviews with key stakeholders to tell us their ‘story’ of their experience of the project. Anecdotes are filtered and patterns drawn out to potentially discover unexpected yet significant patterns of outcomes in the project’s development.
5.1 Research methodology & technical processes and analyses:a) Coding and implementing an integrated GIS toolkit (VBA /C++) b) spatial analytical techniques: MESDA, dynamic shift-share / GWR?c) visualisation and mapping outputsd) creation of impact indicators: generic / context specific
Need to design a robust framework for dealing with aggregate datasets
6.1 Pattern recognition and interpretation; making sense of the data: visualising changes over time and space for impacts, costs and benefits
6.2 How do methods respond to research questions and prove or disprove the hypotheses?
6.3 How do the tools respond to emerging issues in section 5?
6.4 How does the toolkit aid the evaluation of potential key spatial-temporal, socio-economic & environmental impact indicators, sustainability challenges facing the planning of MUTPs
6.5 Generic lessons for decision-makers – is context everything?
7.1 How can these tools assist in the decision-making process during the following stages, i.e. through indicators:a) planning?b) appraisal (pre-project)?c) evaluation of outcomes (post-project), including impact studies?
7.2 Potential implementation and use of the toolkit in planning sector
7.3 Critiques a) Conceptual / theoreticalb) Technical