GIS-Based Land Use Simulation for Biomass Energy Production

GIS-Based Land Use Simulation for

Biomass Energy Production

By

Olusegun Osifuye

GIS-Based Land Use Simulation for

Biomass Energy Production

By

Olusegun Osifuye

INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY ANALYSES PROJECTIONS

INTRODUCTION

GIS-Based Land Use Simulation for Biomass Energy Production 3

ARABLE LAND

• Alternate sources of energy

• Biomass for Bio-energy

• “Food or Fuel” debate

• Effect on biodiversity

• Silage Maize feedstock

INTRODUCTION







INTRODUCTION


Hochschule für Technik Stuttgart

OR






INTRODUCTION


Biogas Power Plant

Source: Martina Nolte (http://www.manderfeld-entsorgung-agrar.de/duengemittel/html)

Source: http://oklahomafarmreport.com/wire/news/2011/09/02270_FSABiomassProg09152011_092754.php

•The role of biogas power plants

•Silage maize as biogas plant feedstock

INTRODUCTION


How does a biogas plant work?

Source: http://www.weltec-biopower.com/How-does-a-biogas-plant-work.1080.0.html

INPUT FEEDSTOCK

OBJECTIVES


• To develop a model that calculates the silage maize hectaresin the study area (also applicable to any region) based on a set of assumptions.

• To quantify the effect of silage maize cultivation on bio-energy production for the study area.

• To predict and visualize different land use scenarios based on Several Factors .

METHODOLOGY


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map

Biogas Power Plant Buffer

FLOW CHART

‘Estimated Total Silage Maize’ Map

‘Silage Maize Area’ Map

Availability Map

METHODOLOGY


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map



FLOW CHART


Availability Map

METHODOLOGY


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map


FLOW CHART



Availability Map

METHODOLOGY


Model DesignUsing the Model Builder

METHODOLOGY


STUDY AREASchwarzwald-Baar Kreis

•One of 44 counties (Kreis)

•2012 Population 204585

•Total Area of 102526 hectares

•As at 2012 41 Biogas power plants

METHODOLOGY


ArcGIS 10.1 Software

Statistical Administrative Data :•Statistical Office of Baden-Württemberg (Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg)

•State Institute for Development of Agriculture and rural areas [Landesanstalt für Entwicklung der Landwirtschaft und der ländlichen Räume (LEL)]

SOFTWARE / DATA SOURCES

Base Maps •District Office of the Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis(Landratsamt Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis).

CORINE Land Use Data from European Environmental Agency

European Soil DatabaseSeveral Datasets from:http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/data/_Datarequest/ESDB_RasterLibrary.html

25m Raster Digital Elevation Model

http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/data/_Datarequest/ESDB_RasterLibrary.html

http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/library/data/_Datarequest/ESDB_RasterLibrary.html

ANALYSES


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map


FLOW CHART



Availability Map

ANALYSES


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

SUITABILITY FACTORS

5.0 ≤ pH ≤ 8.5Soil without Stones

< 750 m

Low Slope (< 20% )

ANALYSES


Reclassification

CLASS SUITABILITY

1 LEAST SUITABLE

2 .

3 .

4 .

5 MOST SUITABLE

ANALYSES


pH

Stone Volume

Elevation

Slope

Soil Characteristics

Terrain Characteristics

ANALYSES


Silage Maize Suitability Map

•Suitability grouped from least suitable to most suitable.

•Identifies area with best suitability based on natural conditions.

ANALYSES


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map

Land Use Map


FLOW CHART



ANALYSES


Available AreaWhich Land Area is Available?

Forests 46956 hectares

Agricultural land 42650 hectares

Settlement 11790 hectares

Water body 615 hectares

ANALYSES


Available AreaWhich Land Area is Available?


ANALYSES


Available AreaBan on Pastures from December 2011 till December 2015


Pasture about 27000 ha

Other Uses about 15650 ha


ANALYSES


Agricultural Areas (No Pasture)Ban on Pastures from December 2011 till December 2015

Other Uses 15650


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map


FLOW CHART

ANALYSES



Availability Map

ANALYSES


Available and Suitable Silage Maize Area

• 11134 hectares

• Represents silage maize agricultural areas both suitable and available

Silage Maize Area

Municipality Boundary


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map


FLOW CHART

ANALYSES



Availability Map

ANALYSES


32 Biogas Power Plant Locations

• 32 biogas plants

• Effect on the derived suitable and available silage maize area

Silage Maize Area

Municipality Boundary

Biogas Power Plant


Biogas Plant Buffer

ANALYSES

•1.6 km Buffer around all 32 biogas power plants.

•Dissolved buffer is intersected with suitability map


Terrain

Elevation

Slope

Soil

PH

Stone Volume

Suitability Map

‘Silage Maize Area’ MapBiogas Power Plant Buffer

FLOW CHART

ANALYSES


Availability Map


Ecological Total Silage Maize

(ETSM)

5524 Hectares

What does this value mean?

ANALYSES


Estimated Total Silage Maize for Biogas Power Plants

Not All Silage Maize used as Feedstock for Biogas Power Plants

A portion used as Cattle Feed

ETSM (ha) – ESMC (ha) = ESMBP (ha)

5524 – ? = ESMBP (ha)

ETSM : ESTIMATED TOTAL SILAGE MAIZEESMC : ESTIMATED SILAGE MAIZE CATTLEESMBP : ESTIMATED SILAGE MAIZE for BIOGAS POWER PLANTS

ANALYSES


ETSM (ha) – ESMC (ha) = ESMBP (ha)

5524 – 1829 = 3695

Estimated Total Silage Maize for Biogas Power Plants

Calculating the ESMC

Using an average of 480.8 dry tons/hectare

ESMC = 1829

Silage Maize Hectare as source of feedstock for Biogas Power Plants is 3695

ANALYSES


Silage Maize HectaresFor Bioenergy Production

Using 2010 Statistical data from :Statistical Office of Baden-Württemberg(Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg)

State Institute for Development of Agriculture and rural areas [Landesanstalt für Entwicklung der Landwirtschaft und der ländlichen Räume (LEL)]

1 Kilowatt = ? Hectares

Year Installed Capacity (KW) Total Number of Silage Maize Hectares

2010 9140 2629

1 Kilowatt = 0.2 Hectares

ANALYSES


Silage Maize Land UseSimulationEnergy Demand20000KW

Energy

Output

Demand

(Kilowatt)

Silage Maize

Area

(Hectare)

Silage

Maize %

of TAA

Biogas

Plant

Average

Yield

(Kilowatt)

Required

Biogas

Power

Plants

20000 4000 8.3 200 100

240 83

300 63

PROJECTIONS



Energy

Output

Demand

(Kilowatt)

Silage Maize

Area

(Hectare)

Silage

Maize %

of TAA

Biogas

Plant

Average

Yield

(Kilowatt)

Required

Biogas

Power

Plants

15000 3000 6.2 200 75

240 63

300 50

PROJECTIONS

PROJECTIONS



Energy

Output

Demand

(Kilowatt)

Silage Maize

Area

(Hectare)

Silage

Maize %

of TAA

Biogas

Plant

Average

Yield

(Kilowatt)

Required

Biogas

Power

Plants

10000 2000 4.1 200 50

240 41

300 33



Energy

Output

Demand

(Kilowatt)

Silage Maize

Area

(Hectare)

Silage

Maize %

of TAA

Biogas

Plant

Average

Yield

(Kilowatt)

Required

Biogas

Power

Plants

2500 500 1 200 12

240 10

300 8

PROJECTIONS

PROJECTIONS


Projections

•Model applicable to any given region

•Useful to stakeholders on both side of “Food or Fuel” debate

•Aid in decision making

LIMITATIONS

•Estimate figures used

•Not all the biogas power plants used in analyses


THANK YOU