Giovanni Marizza [email protected] 20 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00 Human-made crises:

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni [email protected]@yahoo.it

20 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0020 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00

Human-made crises:

A particular case A particular case of Crisis Management: of Crisis Management:

convincing public opinions convincing public opinions throughthrough

“CASUS BELLI”(an invented, fake, false, untrue reason to carry out a war)

(how to convince your Public Opinion that the Enemy is the Evil)

SOME EXAMPLES FROM THE LAST TWO CENTURIES:

Casus Belli (1)Casus Belli (1) In 1812 Napoleon, In 1812 Napoleon,

forgetting the recent forgetting the recent friendship treaty of Tilsit, friendship treaty of Tilsit, attacks and invades attacks and invades Russia.Russia.

False reason: Russia False reason: Russia accused of reactivating accused of reactivating trades with Britain during trades with Britain during the Continental Block the Continental Block employing neutral shipsemploying neutral ships

““Casus Belli” (2)Casus Belli” (2) In In 18591859 France and Piedmont, France and Piedmont,

according to the secret Agreements of according to the secret Agreements of Plombieres between Cavour and Plombieres between Cavour and Napoleon III, compell Austria to Napoleon III, compell Austria to declare war declare war inventinginventing false episodes false episodes of Austrian misbehaviour in some of Austrian misbehaviour in some small “Italian” Kingdoms under the small “Italian” Kingdoms under the rule of Viennarule of Vienna

Result: the so-called 2nd Italian Result: the so-called 2nd Italian “independence” war“independence” war

““Casus Belli” (3)Casus Belli” (3) Berlin, 1870: “The King of Prussia ill-treated the Berlin, 1870: “The King of Prussia ill-treated the

French Ambassador!”French Ambassador!”

““Casus Belli” (4)Casus Belli” (4) Cuba, 1898: “Spain sank the Maine!”Cuba, 1898: “Spain sank the Maine!”

““Casus Belli” (5)Casus Belli” (5) Atlantic, 1917: “Germany sinks Lusitania, a civilian ship!”Atlantic, 1917: “Germany sinks Lusitania, a civilian ship!”

““Lusitania is a militarized ship” (Jane’s Lusitania is a militarized ship” (Jane’s Catalogue and Brassey Naval Book)Catalogue and Brassey Naval Book)

Used by USA (not at war) to transfer weapons Used by USA (not at war) to transfer weapons and ammunitions to UK (at war with GE)and ammunitions to UK (at war with GE)

GE warning: “Don’t embark civilians!”; GE warning: “Don’t embark civilians!”; Lusitania leaves NY with 1.959 passengers Lusitania leaves NY with 1.959 passengers

Off Liverpool a German U-boot torpedos that Off Liverpool a German U-boot torpedos that “armed merchant cruiser”, a legitimate mil obj“armed merchant cruiser”, a legitimate mil obj

Huge explosion, caused by munitionsHuge explosion, caused by munitions

““Casus Belli” (6)Casus Belli” (6) Ethiopia, 1935: “Ethiopia is attacking Italy!”Ethiopia, 1935: “Ethiopia is attacking Italy!”

““Casus Belli” (7)Casus Belli” (7)

Poland, 1939: “Poland attacks Germany!” Poland, 1939: “Poland attacks Germany!”

““Casus Belli” (8)Casus Belli” (8) Pearl Harbor, 1941: “Japan attacks USA treacherously!” Pearl Harbor, 1941: “Japan attacks USA treacherously!”

7 October 1940: McCollum plan (14 points) to 7 October 1940: McCollum plan (14 points) to compell Japan to begin a war,compell Japan to begin a war,

1940: Roosevelt transfers the Pacific Fleet (sacrifical 1940: Roosevelt transfers the Pacific Fleet (sacrifical victim) from Western coast (well protected) to victim) from Western coast (well protected) to Hawaii. Adm Richardson fired,Hawaii. Adm Richardson fired,

1941 (Jan-Dec): dozens of reports about a Japanese 1941 (Jan-Dec): dozens of reports about a Japanese attack, Hawaii HQ never informed,attack, Hawaii HQ never informed,

US-NL Treaty: war if JP crosses 10°N,US-NL Treaty: war if JP crosses 10°N, 4 Dec: Treaty in force, US at war with JP, 3 days 4 Dec: Treaty in force, US at war with JP, 3 days

before the attack!before the attack! 6 Dec: Roosvelt reads the declaration of war and 6 Dec: Roosvelt reads the declaration of war and

informs the guests during the dinner: “Gentlemen, the informs the guests during the dinner: “Gentlemen, the war begins tomorrow”war begins tomorrow”

7 Dec: Pearl Harbour7 Dec: Pearl Harbour

Casus Belli (9)Casus Belli (9) In 1939 Soviet Union attacks In 1939 Soviet Union attacks

Finland.Finland. False reason: “Finland attacked False reason: “Finland attacked

a Soviet garrison near Leningrad a Soviet garrison near Leningrad on 27 November”on 27 November”

29 November: SU breaks 29 November: SU breaks diplomatic relations.diplomatic relations.

30 November: SU attacks with 30 November: SU attacks with 800.000 soldiers and 1.500 tanks 800.000 soldiers and 1.500 tanks

““Casus Belli” (10)Casus Belli” (10) Montecassino Abbey, 15 February 1944: “The Montecassino Abbey, 15 February 1944: “The

Germans have fortified the abbey!” Germans have fortified the abbey!”

““Casus Belli” (11)Casus Belli” (11) Dresden bombing, 13 February 1945: “A military Dresden bombing, 13 February 1945: “A military

objective!” objective!”

200.000 dead in 1 night

““Casus Belli” (12)Casus Belli” (12) Suez, 1956: “Egypt is attacking Israel!”Suez, 1956: “Egypt is attacking Israel!”

““Casus Belli” (13)Casus Belli” (13) Vietnam, 1964: Tonkino Gulf accident (never occurred)Vietnam, 1964: Tonkino Gulf accident (never occurred)

Result: 4.000 days of war, 58.000 Americans KIA, 3 million Vietnamese, 200 billion dollars, 7 million tons of bombs (3 times those of WW2), USA defeated

Casus Belli (14)Casus Belli (14) In 1990 Saddam Hussein In 1990 Saddam Hussein falselyfalsely

accuses Kuwait of doing an accuses Kuwait of doing an economic policy against Iraqi economic policy against Iraqi interests.interests.

Contemporarily Saddam Contemporarily Saddam falselyfalsely

accuses Kuwait of illegally accuses Kuwait of illegally pumping oil from Iraqi soil pumping oil from Iraqi soil (using “oblique”, instead of (using “oblique”, instead of vertical pumps)vertical pumps)

““Casus Belli” (15)Casus Belli” (15) Iraq, 2003: “Iraqi regime has WMD!”Iraq, 2003: “Iraqi regime has WMD!”

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript/

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell’ chief of staff from 2002 to 2005: "It was the lowest point in my life"

““Casus Belli” (16)Casus Belli” (16) Libia, 2011: “Responsibility to protect civilian populations” (UNSCR 1973)Libia, 2011: “Responsibility to protect civilian populations” (UNSCR 1973)

OK, what about Siria?OK, what about Siria?

Lessons learned:Lessons learned:

90% of wars began with a fake “casus belli”90% of wars began with a fake “casus belli” Who wins is always right Who wins is always right An advice for the future: investigate “casus An advice for the future: investigate “casus

belli” asap!belli” asap!

YESTERDAY AND TODAY:YESTERDAY AND TODAY:DURATION OF CRISES AND DURATION OF CRISES AND OF THEIR MANAGEMENTOF THEIR MANAGEMENT

Yesterday:Yesterday:(before 1945)(before 1945)

short crisesshort crisesquick decisionsquick decisions

Today:Today:long criseslong crises

long decisionslong decisions(in times of globalization and IT!!!)(in times of globalization and IT!!!)

Short crises of yesterday:Short crises of yesterday:

3 Italian “Independence” Wars (1848, 1859, 1866): 3 Italian “Independence” Wars (1848, 1859, 1866): 11 year yearAmerican Civil War (1861-1865): American Civil War (1861-1865): 44 years yearsFranco-German War (1870-1871): Franco-German War (1870-1871): 11 year year

Libia War (Italy vs. Ottoman Empire, 1911-1912): Libia War (Italy vs. Ottoman Empire, 1911-1912): 1 1 yearyear

2 Balkanic Wars (1912, 1913):2 Balkanic Wars (1912, 1913): 11 year yearWorld War 1 (1914-1918): World War 1 (1914-1918): 44 years years

Abyssinia Campaign (Italy vs. Ethiopia, 1935-1936): Abyssinia Campaign (Italy vs. Ethiopia, 1935-1936): 1 ½1 ½ years years

Spanish Civil War (1936-1939): Spanish Civil War (1936-1939): 33 years yearsWorld War 2 (1939-1945): World War 2 (1939-1945): 55 years years

Average of these 12 examples: 2 yearsAverage of these 12 examples: 2 years

Short (quick) decisions of Short (quick) decisions of yesterday (1):yesterday (1):

Deciding the new world order after the Napoleonic campaigns:CONGRESS OF VIENNA (1814-1815)

7 months

Deciding the new asset of the Balkans:CONGRESS OF BERLIN (1878)

2 months

Deciding the new worl order after WW1:CONFERENCE OF PARIS (1919)

6 months

Deciding the victory strategy in WW2 :CONFERENCE OF TEHERAN (1943)

4 days

Short (quick) decisions of Short (quick) decisions of yesterday (2):yesterday (2):

Deciding the new world order after the victory in WW2:CONFERENCE OF YALTA (1945)

7 days

Deciding the occupation zones in Germany:CONFERENCE OF POTSDAM (1945)

2 weeks

Deciding the destiny of WW2 losers in Europe:NUREMBERG PROCESS (1946)

10 months

Average of these 7 examples: 3 months

Long (never-ending) crises of Long (never-ending) crises of today:today:

Vietnam crisis (vs. France, USA, Cambodia, China Vietnam crisis (vs. France, USA, Cambodia, China 1945-1980): 1945-1980): 35 years35 years

Cold War (1945-1989): Cold War (1945-1989): 45 years45 yearsIndia-Pakistan crisis (1947-today): India-Pakistan crisis (1947-today): 67 years67 years

Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1948-today): Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1948-today): 66 years66 yearsKorean crisis (1950-today): Korean crisis (1950-today): 64 years64 years

Iraqi crisis (1991-today): Iraqi crisis (1991-today): 2323 years, but… years, but…Afghan crisis (2001-today): Afghan crisis (2001-today): 1313 years, but… years, but…Average of these 8 examples: 50 years (+)Average of these 8 examples: 50 years (+)

Long (never-ending) Long (never-ending) decisions of today:decisions of today:

Armaments control (CFE, ABM, START, CSBM, SALT,…)Armaments control (CFE, ABM, START, CSBM, SALT,…)RESULTS?RESULTS?

Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Camp David, Taba, Oslo, Sharm el-Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Camp David, Taba, Oslo, Sharm el-Sheikh, Annapolis,…)Sheikh, Annapolis,…)

RESULTS??RESULTS??

Afghanistan (Bonn, Rome, London, Tokio, Washington, Afghanistan (Bonn, Rome, London, Tokio, Washington, Moscow, The Hague, G8 Trieste,….)Moscow, The Hague, G8 Trieste,….)

RESULTS???RESULTS???

Sun Zu, Sun Zu, 25 centuries ago:25 centuries ago:

““Don’t begin a war if Don’t begin a war if you don’t know how you don’t know how to exit”to exit”

““A war must be as A war must be as short as possible”short as possible”

Suggestions for Thesis:Suggestions for Thesis:

Casus belli: comparing different crisesCasus belli: comparing different crises

Duration of crises: the reasons why Duration of crises: the reasons why they are becoming never-endingthey are becoming never-ending

(don’t copy!)(don’t copy!)

Crisis Management Crisis Management and Preventionand Prevention

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni [email protected]@yahoo.it

20 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0020 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00