global information and early warning system on food and agriculture GIEWS GIEWS Update 30 April 2019 Central America Continuation of El Niño conditions raises concerns over planting and early development of the 2019 main season maize crop in Central America 1 and Honduras as well as in central Nicaragua. In northern Guatemala, where harvesting of the 2018 third season crops takes place between January and March, farmers reported losses of maize and bean crops due to the prolonged dry spells. 3 In Costa Rica, reduced rainfall in the Caribbean region affected the production of yucca and tubers as well as pasture conditions. 4 In the region with poor vegetation conditions, the lower vegetation activity infers reduced soil moisture reserves and, if these conditions persist in May, planting operations of the 2019 main season maize crop could be disrupted and delayed. 5 Current situation In Central America, the January-March period corresponds to the dry season. In 2019, it was harsher than usual, due to the presence of the El Niño phenomenon, which resulted in drier-than-normal conditions, with cumulative rains estimated to be 60 percent below the long-term average in the “Dry Corridor” and the Caribbean region (Figure 1). The severe dryness led to forest fires across northern Guatemala and Honduras and contributed to the drying up of some rivers in Honduras. 2 The suppressed rains also resulted in poor vegetation conditions, as depicted in Figure 2, especially in northern Guatemala Highlights: • In Central America, the El Niño phenomenon is generally associated with below-average rains and prolonged dry spells. • The 2019 January-March dry season in the subregion was drier than usual due to the presence of El Niño, which affected production of the 2018 third season maize crop in Guatemala. • There is a high likelihood that the El Niño phenomenon could persist in the May-July period, which coincides with the planting and development stages of the main season maize crop and continue until the end of the year. • If dry conditions adversely impact the 2019 main maize output, prices of white maize, which are already at high levels, could increase further, constraining food access for vulnerable households. • In several countries, governments are already implementing preventive measures to mitigate the impact of dry weather conditions and to increase farmers’ resilience, especially in the “Dry Corridor.” 1 This report is prepared in collaboration with the FAO Office for Mesoamerica and Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA). 2 https://www.elheraldo.hn/pais/1272822-466/r%C3%ADo-choluteca-un-reflejo-de-la-sequ%C3%ADa-que-atraviesa-la-zona-sur . 3 https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2019/04/08/canicula-prolongada-dana-cultivos-en-peten/. 4 https://www.nacion.com/sucesos/desastres/un-inusual-fenomeno-climatico-el-nino-deja-a-secas/. 5 “El Niño 2019 está favoreciendo una época seca extrema”, FAO Mesoamerica Office (in collaboration of CRRH), April 2019.
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global information and early warning system on food and agriculture GIEWS
GIEWS Update
30 April 2019
Central AmericaContinuation of El Nintildeo conditions raises concerns over planting and early
development of the 2019 main season maize crop in Central America1
and Honduras as well as in central Nicaragua In northern Guatemala where harvesting of the 2018 third season crops takes place between January and March farmers reported losses of maize and bean crops due to the prolonged dry spells3 In Costa Rica reduced rainfall in the Caribbean region affected the production of yucca and tubers as well as pasture conditions4 In the region with poor vegetation conditions the lower vegetation activity infers reduced soil moisture reserves and if these conditions persist in May planting operations of the 2019 main season maize crop could be disrupted and delayed5
Current situation
In Central America the January-March period corresponds to the dry season In 2019 it was harsher than usual due to the presence of the El Nintildeo phenomenon which resulted in drier-than-normal conditions with cumulative rains estimated to be 60 percent below the long-term average in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo and the Caribbean region (Figure 1) The severe dryness led to forest fires across northern Guatemala and Honduras and contributed to the drying up of some rivers in Honduras2 The suppressed rains also resulted in poor vegetation conditions as depicted in Figure 2 especially in northern Guatemala
Highlightsbull In Central America the El Nintildeo phenomenon is generally associated with below-average rains
and prolonged dry spells
bull The 2019 January-March dry season in the subregion was drier than usual due to the presence of El Nintildeo which affected production of the 2018 third season maize crop in Guatemala
bull There is a high likelihood that the El Nintildeo phenomenon could persist in the May-July period which coincides with the planting and development stages of the main season maize crop and continue until the end of the year
bull If dry conditions adversely impact the 2019 main maize output prices of white maize which are already at high levels could increase further constraining food access for vulnerable households
bull In several countries governments are already implementing preventive measures to mitigate the impact of dry weather conditions and to increase farmersrsquo resilience especially in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo
1 This report is prepared in collaboration with the FAO Office for Mesoamerica and Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)2 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1272822-466rC3ADo-choluteca-un-reflejo-de-la-sequC3ADa-que-atraviesa-la-zona-sur 3 httpselperiodicocomgtnacion20190408canicula-prolongada-dana-cultivos-en-peten4 httpswwwnacioncomsucesosdesastresun-inusual-fenomeno-climatico-el-nino-deja-a-secas 5 ldquoEl Nintildeo 2019 estaacute favoreciendo una eacutepoca seca extremardquo FAO Mesoamerica Office (in collaboration of CRRH) April 2019
30 April 20192
GIEWS Update - Central America
Currently prices of white maize in the region are 10 to 40 percent above their year-earlier levels mainly reflecting localized production shortfalls of the 2018 main season maize output particularly in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo (GIEWS Update) High production costs due to the elevated prices of key inputs
including fuel further underpinned maize prices If below-average rainfall continues prices of maize could increase further pressured by concerns over the 2019 output The continuation of high prices would be expected to negatively impact on householdsrsquo food access
Figure 1 Central America - Monthly precipitation anomaly ( January-March 2019 in percent)
Source FAOGIEWS Earth Observation - wwwfaoorggiewsearthobservation
January
February
March
January
February
March
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 3
Figure 2 Central America - Vegetation conditions (January-March 2019 by dekad)
Source FAOGIEWS Earth Observation - wwwfaoorggiewsearthobservation
Vegetation condition
1-10 Jan
21-31 Mar 11-20 Mar 1-10 Mar
21-28 Feb 11-20 Feb 1-10 Feb
21-31 Jan11-20 Jan
Stressed vegetation
Healthy vegetation
Border of the Dry Corridor
30 April 20194
GIEWS Update - Central America
Forecasts
According to the latest forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) there is a very high likelihood (83 percent) that El Nintildeo conditions would persist in the Northern Hemisphere in the May-July period (Figure 3) In Central America this period corresponds to the planting and development stages of the main maize crop In addition El Nintildeo conditions are likely to continue with a probability of more than 50 percent until the end of 2019
In the subregion the occurrence of an El Nintildeo phenomenon is mainly associated with reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells Specifically El Nintildeo conditions tend to prolong the dry spells called ldquocaniacuteculardquo that normally occur during the rainy season typically in July and August The reduction in the amount of precipitation is usually more pronounced
in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo6 that runs through the tropical dry forest region on the Pacific coast of Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua where smallholder farmers produce maize and beans mainly for self consumption
According to the latest weather forecast from the Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA) there is a high probability that rainfall in the May-July period would be below average7 in the Pacific coastal areas of Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica and Panama as well as most of El Salvador large parts of which are located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo and Belize By contrast precipitation is anticipated at normal levels in the main maize-producing northern and eastern regions of Guatemala
6 The ldquoDry Corridorrdquo stretches from southern Mexico to the ldquoDry Archrdquo of Panama however the countries that are more prone to drought are considered Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua (wwwfaoorgin-actionagronoticiasdetailenc1024539)7 The probability of rainfall of the CRRH forecasts a 50 percent of below average a 30 percent of average and a 20 percent of above average precipitation in the above-mentioned areas
Figure 3 Probabilistic El Nintildeo La Nintildea and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts mid-April 2019 (probability in percent)
ENSO State based on NINtildeO 34 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO -05 0C to 05 0C
Apr-Jun May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sept Aug-Oct Sept-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan Dec-Feb Season
Note IRICPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO ForecastsSources Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 5
Government responses
Most governments of Central America are implementing a series of preventive measures in order to mitigate the impact of El Nintildeo conditions as well as support measures to assist the population affected by the localized dry conditions in 2018 In Guatemala the Government established a plan (Plan para la Atencioacuten del Hambre 2019) that aims to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spells that occurred last year and to increase the resilience of the agriculture sector whilst also supporting food security in the affected areas8 In Honduras the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) developed good practice guidelines for farmers including adequate planting dates for each crop in all the producing regions and recommended types of seeds9 For example according to these guidelines it is advisable to carry out planting operations of maize and sorghum crops between 15 and 20 April in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo area which includes the Choluteca Valle and El Paraiacuteso departments Additionally the SAG distributed
drip irrigation systems in a municipality of the Comayagua Department located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo 10 In El Salvador the Environmental Fund of El Salvador (FONAES) continued distributing storage containers for rainwater harvesting11 and the Ministry of Agriculture planned to distribute white maize seeds and fertilizers12
Recommendations
Under the forecast of continuing El Nintildeo conditions in the subregion farmers are recommended to i) adopt preventive measures in a scenario of water shortages ii) follow the recommended planting dates and ascertain the likely conditions at planting time iii) plant sorghum or beans which are more tolerant to water stress instead of maize in the areas where there is a high probability of reduced rainfall and iv) not to burn agricultural land before planting as this practice favours land erosion and could cause forest fires
8 httpwwwsesangobgtwordpress20190305plan-para-la-atencion-del-hambre-estacional-es-presentado-en-conasan9 ldquoReporte Agrometeoroloacutegico Antildeo VII - No 9rdquo Secretariacutea de Agricultura y Ganaderiacutea (SAG) April 201910 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1268442-466lamanC3AD-comayagua-tendrC3A1-un-sistema-de-riego-para-206-hectC3A1reas11 httpselmundosvfinalizan-proyectos-de-agua-en-110-municipios12 httpselmundosvmag-preve-cosecha-de-26-mills-de-quintales-de-granos
Figure 4 Probability forecast for precipitation(May-July 2019 probability in percent)
Source Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)
ReferenceProbability of precipitation
km
Above average (green)
Average (yellow)
Below average (brown)
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
30 April 20192
GIEWS Update - Central America
Currently prices of white maize in the region are 10 to 40 percent above their year-earlier levels mainly reflecting localized production shortfalls of the 2018 main season maize output particularly in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo (GIEWS Update) High production costs due to the elevated prices of key inputs
including fuel further underpinned maize prices If below-average rainfall continues prices of maize could increase further pressured by concerns over the 2019 output The continuation of high prices would be expected to negatively impact on householdsrsquo food access
Figure 1 Central America - Monthly precipitation anomaly ( January-March 2019 in percent)
Source FAOGIEWS Earth Observation - wwwfaoorggiewsearthobservation
January
February
March
January
February
March
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 3
Figure 2 Central America - Vegetation conditions (January-March 2019 by dekad)
Source FAOGIEWS Earth Observation - wwwfaoorggiewsearthobservation
Vegetation condition
1-10 Jan
21-31 Mar 11-20 Mar 1-10 Mar
21-28 Feb 11-20 Feb 1-10 Feb
21-31 Jan11-20 Jan
Stressed vegetation
Healthy vegetation
Border of the Dry Corridor
30 April 20194
GIEWS Update - Central America
Forecasts
According to the latest forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) there is a very high likelihood (83 percent) that El Nintildeo conditions would persist in the Northern Hemisphere in the May-July period (Figure 3) In Central America this period corresponds to the planting and development stages of the main maize crop In addition El Nintildeo conditions are likely to continue with a probability of more than 50 percent until the end of 2019
In the subregion the occurrence of an El Nintildeo phenomenon is mainly associated with reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells Specifically El Nintildeo conditions tend to prolong the dry spells called ldquocaniacuteculardquo that normally occur during the rainy season typically in July and August The reduction in the amount of precipitation is usually more pronounced
in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo6 that runs through the tropical dry forest region on the Pacific coast of Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua where smallholder farmers produce maize and beans mainly for self consumption
According to the latest weather forecast from the Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA) there is a high probability that rainfall in the May-July period would be below average7 in the Pacific coastal areas of Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica and Panama as well as most of El Salvador large parts of which are located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo and Belize By contrast precipitation is anticipated at normal levels in the main maize-producing northern and eastern regions of Guatemala
6 The ldquoDry Corridorrdquo stretches from southern Mexico to the ldquoDry Archrdquo of Panama however the countries that are more prone to drought are considered Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua (wwwfaoorgin-actionagronoticiasdetailenc1024539)7 The probability of rainfall of the CRRH forecasts a 50 percent of below average a 30 percent of average and a 20 percent of above average precipitation in the above-mentioned areas
Figure 3 Probabilistic El Nintildeo La Nintildea and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts mid-April 2019 (probability in percent)
ENSO State based on NINtildeO 34 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO -05 0C to 05 0C
Apr-Jun May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sept Aug-Oct Sept-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan Dec-Feb Season
Note IRICPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO ForecastsSources Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 5
Government responses
Most governments of Central America are implementing a series of preventive measures in order to mitigate the impact of El Nintildeo conditions as well as support measures to assist the population affected by the localized dry conditions in 2018 In Guatemala the Government established a plan (Plan para la Atencioacuten del Hambre 2019) that aims to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spells that occurred last year and to increase the resilience of the agriculture sector whilst also supporting food security in the affected areas8 In Honduras the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) developed good practice guidelines for farmers including adequate planting dates for each crop in all the producing regions and recommended types of seeds9 For example according to these guidelines it is advisable to carry out planting operations of maize and sorghum crops between 15 and 20 April in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo area which includes the Choluteca Valle and El Paraiacuteso departments Additionally the SAG distributed
drip irrigation systems in a municipality of the Comayagua Department located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo 10 In El Salvador the Environmental Fund of El Salvador (FONAES) continued distributing storage containers for rainwater harvesting11 and the Ministry of Agriculture planned to distribute white maize seeds and fertilizers12
Recommendations
Under the forecast of continuing El Nintildeo conditions in the subregion farmers are recommended to i) adopt preventive measures in a scenario of water shortages ii) follow the recommended planting dates and ascertain the likely conditions at planting time iii) plant sorghum or beans which are more tolerant to water stress instead of maize in the areas where there is a high probability of reduced rainfall and iv) not to burn agricultural land before planting as this practice favours land erosion and could cause forest fires
8 httpwwwsesangobgtwordpress20190305plan-para-la-atencion-del-hambre-estacional-es-presentado-en-conasan9 ldquoReporte Agrometeoroloacutegico Antildeo VII - No 9rdquo Secretariacutea de Agricultura y Ganaderiacutea (SAG) April 201910 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1268442-466lamanC3AD-comayagua-tendrC3A1-un-sistema-de-riego-para-206-hectC3A1reas11 httpselmundosvfinalizan-proyectos-de-agua-en-110-municipios12 httpselmundosvmag-preve-cosecha-de-26-mills-de-quintales-de-granos
Figure 4 Probability forecast for precipitation(May-July 2019 probability in percent)
Source Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)
ReferenceProbability of precipitation
km
Above average (green)
Average (yellow)
Below average (brown)
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 3
Figure 2 Central America - Vegetation conditions (January-March 2019 by dekad)
Source FAOGIEWS Earth Observation - wwwfaoorggiewsearthobservation
Vegetation condition
1-10 Jan
21-31 Mar 11-20 Mar 1-10 Mar
21-28 Feb 11-20 Feb 1-10 Feb
21-31 Jan11-20 Jan
Stressed vegetation
Healthy vegetation
Border of the Dry Corridor
30 April 20194
GIEWS Update - Central America
Forecasts
According to the latest forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) there is a very high likelihood (83 percent) that El Nintildeo conditions would persist in the Northern Hemisphere in the May-July period (Figure 3) In Central America this period corresponds to the planting and development stages of the main maize crop In addition El Nintildeo conditions are likely to continue with a probability of more than 50 percent until the end of 2019
In the subregion the occurrence of an El Nintildeo phenomenon is mainly associated with reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells Specifically El Nintildeo conditions tend to prolong the dry spells called ldquocaniacuteculardquo that normally occur during the rainy season typically in July and August The reduction in the amount of precipitation is usually more pronounced
in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo6 that runs through the tropical dry forest region on the Pacific coast of Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua where smallholder farmers produce maize and beans mainly for self consumption
According to the latest weather forecast from the Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA) there is a high probability that rainfall in the May-July period would be below average7 in the Pacific coastal areas of Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica and Panama as well as most of El Salvador large parts of which are located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo and Belize By contrast precipitation is anticipated at normal levels in the main maize-producing northern and eastern regions of Guatemala
6 The ldquoDry Corridorrdquo stretches from southern Mexico to the ldquoDry Archrdquo of Panama however the countries that are more prone to drought are considered Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua (wwwfaoorgin-actionagronoticiasdetailenc1024539)7 The probability of rainfall of the CRRH forecasts a 50 percent of below average a 30 percent of average and a 20 percent of above average precipitation in the above-mentioned areas
Figure 3 Probabilistic El Nintildeo La Nintildea and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts mid-April 2019 (probability in percent)
ENSO State based on NINtildeO 34 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO -05 0C to 05 0C
Apr-Jun May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sept Aug-Oct Sept-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan Dec-Feb Season
Note IRICPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO ForecastsSources Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 5
Government responses
Most governments of Central America are implementing a series of preventive measures in order to mitigate the impact of El Nintildeo conditions as well as support measures to assist the population affected by the localized dry conditions in 2018 In Guatemala the Government established a plan (Plan para la Atencioacuten del Hambre 2019) that aims to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spells that occurred last year and to increase the resilience of the agriculture sector whilst also supporting food security in the affected areas8 In Honduras the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) developed good practice guidelines for farmers including adequate planting dates for each crop in all the producing regions and recommended types of seeds9 For example according to these guidelines it is advisable to carry out planting operations of maize and sorghum crops between 15 and 20 April in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo area which includes the Choluteca Valle and El Paraiacuteso departments Additionally the SAG distributed
drip irrigation systems in a municipality of the Comayagua Department located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo 10 In El Salvador the Environmental Fund of El Salvador (FONAES) continued distributing storage containers for rainwater harvesting11 and the Ministry of Agriculture planned to distribute white maize seeds and fertilizers12
Recommendations
Under the forecast of continuing El Nintildeo conditions in the subregion farmers are recommended to i) adopt preventive measures in a scenario of water shortages ii) follow the recommended planting dates and ascertain the likely conditions at planting time iii) plant sorghum or beans which are more tolerant to water stress instead of maize in the areas where there is a high probability of reduced rainfall and iv) not to burn agricultural land before planting as this practice favours land erosion and could cause forest fires
8 httpwwwsesangobgtwordpress20190305plan-para-la-atencion-del-hambre-estacional-es-presentado-en-conasan9 ldquoReporte Agrometeoroloacutegico Antildeo VII - No 9rdquo Secretariacutea de Agricultura y Ganaderiacutea (SAG) April 201910 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1268442-466lamanC3AD-comayagua-tendrC3A1-un-sistema-de-riego-para-206-hectC3A1reas11 httpselmundosvfinalizan-proyectos-de-agua-en-110-municipios12 httpselmundosvmag-preve-cosecha-de-26-mills-de-quintales-de-granos
Figure 4 Probability forecast for precipitation(May-July 2019 probability in percent)
Source Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)
ReferenceProbability of precipitation
km
Above average (green)
Average (yellow)
Below average (brown)
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
30 April 20194
GIEWS Update - Central America
Forecasts
According to the latest forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) there is a very high likelihood (83 percent) that El Nintildeo conditions would persist in the Northern Hemisphere in the May-July period (Figure 3) In Central America this period corresponds to the planting and development stages of the main maize crop In addition El Nintildeo conditions are likely to continue with a probability of more than 50 percent until the end of 2019
In the subregion the occurrence of an El Nintildeo phenomenon is mainly associated with reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells Specifically El Nintildeo conditions tend to prolong the dry spells called ldquocaniacuteculardquo that normally occur during the rainy season typically in July and August The reduction in the amount of precipitation is usually more pronounced
in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo6 that runs through the tropical dry forest region on the Pacific coast of Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua where smallholder farmers produce maize and beans mainly for self consumption
According to the latest weather forecast from the Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA) there is a high probability that rainfall in the May-July period would be below average7 in the Pacific coastal areas of Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica and Panama as well as most of El Salvador large parts of which are located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo and Belize By contrast precipitation is anticipated at normal levels in the main maize-producing northern and eastern regions of Guatemala
6 The ldquoDry Corridorrdquo stretches from southern Mexico to the ldquoDry Archrdquo of Panama however the countries that are more prone to drought are considered Guatemala El Salvador Honduras and Nicaragua (wwwfaoorgin-actionagronoticiasdetailenc1024539)7 The probability of rainfall of the CRRH forecasts a 50 percent of below average a 30 percent of average and a 20 percent of above average precipitation in the above-mentioned areas
Figure 3 Probabilistic El Nintildeo La Nintildea and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts mid-April 2019 (probability in percent)
ENSO State based on NINtildeO 34 SST AnomalyNeutral ENSO -05 0C to 05 0C
Apr-Jun May-Jul Jun-Aug Jul-Sept Aug-Oct Sept-Nov Oct-Dec Nov-Jan Dec-Feb Season
Note IRICPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO ForecastsSources Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 5
Government responses
Most governments of Central America are implementing a series of preventive measures in order to mitigate the impact of El Nintildeo conditions as well as support measures to assist the population affected by the localized dry conditions in 2018 In Guatemala the Government established a plan (Plan para la Atencioacuten del Hambre 2019) that aims to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spells that occurred last year and to increase the resilience of the agriculture sector whilst also supporting food security in the affected areas8 In Honduras the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) developed good practice guidelines for farmers including adequate planting dates for each crop in all the producing regions and recommended types of seeds9 For example according to these guidelines it is advisable to carry out planting operations of maize and sorghum crops between 15 and 20 April in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo area which includes the Choluteca Valle and El Paraiacuteso departments Additionally the SAG distributed
drip irrigation systems in a municipality of the Comayagua Department located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo 10 In El Salvador the Environmental Fund of El Salvador (FONAES) continued distributing storage containers for rainwater harvesting11 and the Ministry of Agriculture planned to distribute white maize seeds and fertilizers12
Recommendations
Under the forecast of continuing El Nintildeo conditions in the subregion farmers are recommended to i) adopt preventive measures in a scenario of water shortages ii) follow the recommended planting dates and ascertain the likely conditions at planting time iii) plant sorghum or beans which are more tolerant to water stress instead of maize in the areas where there is a high probability of reduced rainfall and iv) not to burn agricultural land before planting as this practice favours land erosion and could cause forest fires
8 httpwwwsesangobgtwordpress20190305plan-para-la-atencion-del-hambre-estacional-es-presentado-en-conasan9 ldquoReporte Agrometeoroloacutegico Antildeo VII - No 9rdquo Secretariacutea de Agricultura y Ganaderiacutea (SAG) April 201910 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1268442-466lamanC3AD-comayagua-tendrC3A1-un-sistema-de-riego-para-206-hectC3A1reas11 httpselmundosvfinalizan-proyectos-de-agua-en-110-municipios12 httpselmundosvmag-preve-cosecha-de-26-mills-de-quintales-de-granos
Figure 4 Probability forecast for precipitation(May-July 2019 probability in percent)
Source Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)
ReferenceProbability of precipitation
km
Above average (green)
Average (yellow)
Below average (brown)
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
GIEWS Update - Central America
30 April 2019 5
Government responses
Most governments of Central America are implementing a series of preventive measures in order to mitigate the impact of El Nintildeo conditions as well as support measures to assist the population affected by the localized dry conditions in 2018 In Guatemala the Government established a plan (Plan para la Atencioacuten del Hambre 2019) that aims to mitigate the effects of the prolonged dry spells that occurred last year and to increase the resilience of the agriculture sector whilst also supporting food security in the affected areas8 In Honduras the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) developed good practice guidelines for farmers including adequate planting dates for each crop in all the producing regions and recommended types of seeds9 For example according to these guidelines it is advisable to carry out planting operations of maize and sorghum crops between 15 and 20 April in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo area which includes the Choluteca Valle and El Paraiacuteso departments Additionally the SAG distributed
drip irrigation systems in a municipality of the Comayagua Department located in the ldquoDry Corridorrdquo 10 In El Salvador the Environmental Fund of El Salvador (FONAES) continued distributing storage containers for rainwater harvesting11 and the Ministry of Agriculture planned to distribute white maize seeds and fertilizers12
Recommendations
Under the forecast of continuing El Nintildeo conditions in the subregion farmers are recommended to i) adopt preventive measures in a scenario of water shortages ii) follow the recommended planting dates and ascertain the likely conditions at planting time iii) plant sorghum or beans which are more tolerant to water stress instead of maize in the areas where there is a high probability of reduced rainfall and iv) not to burn agricultural land before planting as this practice favours land erosion and could cause forest fires
8 httpwwwsesangobgtwordpress20190305plan-para-la-atencion-del-hambre-estacional-es-presentado-en-conasan9 ldquoReporte Agrometeoroloacutegico Antildeo VII - No 9rdquo Secretariacutea de Agricultura y Ganaderiacutea (SAG) April 201910 httpswwwelheraldohnpais1268442-466lamanC3AD-comayagua-tendrC3A1-un-sistema-de-riego-para-206-hectC3A1reas11 httpselmundosvfinalizan-proyectos-de-agua-en-110-municipios12 httpselmundosvmag-preve-cosecha-de-26-mills-de-quintales-de-granos
Figure 4 Probability forecast for precipitation(May-July 2019 probability in percent)
Source Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources (CRRH) of the Central American Integration System (SICA)
ReferenceProbability of precipitation
km
Above average (green)
Average (yellow)
Below average (brown)
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
This report is prepared by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Trade and Markets Division of FAO The updates focus on developing anomalous conditions aimed at providing early warnings as well as latest and more elaborate information than other GIEWS regular reports on the food security situation of countries at both national and sub-national levels None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views
For more information visit the GIEWS Website at wwwfaoorggiews
Enquiries may be directed toGlobal Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome ItalyE-mail GIEWS1faoorg
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country territory city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers whether or not these have been patented does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO
copy FAO 2019
Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 30 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 30 IGO httpscreativecommonsorglicensesby-nc-sa30igolegalcodelegalcode)
Under the terms of this license this work may be copied redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation ldquoThis translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition
Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization httpwwwwipointamcenmediationrules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL)
Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party such as tables figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user
Sales rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (wwwfaoorgpublications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfaoorg Requests for commercial use should be submitted via wwwfaoorgcontact-uslicence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to copyrightfaoorg
CA4434EN10419
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