GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia and World - Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Low Carbon Measures - Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan 0 The 23rd AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES 27-29 November 2017
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GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia and World
- Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Low Carbon Measures -
Tatsuya HANAOKA
Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
0
The 23rd AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES
27-29 November 2017
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emission pathways (FY2014 – FY2018)
1
Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation
Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions
scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,
This study analyses appropriate balanced emissions pathways of GHGs, air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) while taking GHG mitigation actions for achieving 2 ℃ target1. estimation of technological mitigation potentials and costs
of the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6
2. How large cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs and air pollutantsdue to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
3. How large tradeoffs of increasing SLCPs and air pollutants due to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
4. How large effects of air pollutant control measures in addition to different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃
5. How large effects of promoting electrification in transport sector and building sector
SLCPs and Air Pollutants Reductions- Advantage and Disadvantage -
4
SO2reduction
Advantage Reducing health effects by decreasing sulfate (major component of PM2.5)
Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing sulfate
BC&PM2.5 reduction
Advantage Reducing health effects by reducing BC and PM2.5 Reducing climate effects by reducing BC
Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing OC due to biomass burning.
NMVOC reduction
Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing climate effects. Reducing health effects by decreasing SOA (Secondary Organic Aerosol)
(major component of PM2.5).
Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing SOA
NOxreduction
Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects. Reducing health effects by decreasing nitrate (major component of PM2.5)
Dis-advantage Increasing atmospheric CH4 concentration and thus warming effects Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing nitrate
CO reduction
Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects. Reducing atmospheric CH4 concentration by reducing NOx at the same time
Dis-advantage No disadvantage
If reducing only NOx, atmospheric CH4 concentration will increase.But if reducing NOx and CO at the same time, atmospheric CH4concentration will not increase
Seeking for combination of NOx and CO reduction, Balancing SO2 and BC reductionat the same time of decarbonization toward 2℃
Scenario Settings- Seeking for balance of GHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants-
5
Scenario Overview
Reference (=SSP2) Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in the current trends
EoP Max 100 % end-of-pipe diffusion across the world by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10
EoP Mid 100% EoP diffusion in developed countries & 50% EoP diffusion in developing courtiers by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10
2D-EoPmax-RES Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS
2D-EoPmid-RES Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS
2D-EoPmid-CCS Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS rather than renewables
2D-EoPmax-RESBLD Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050
2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS / 100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050
2D-EoPmax-RESTRT Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050
2D-EoPmid-RESTRT Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRTDecarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050
2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRTDecarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050
6
Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -
EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef
2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT
2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT
Equivalent to 2℃decarbonization scenarios
There are various different combinations of decarbonization measures which can achieve the similar CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2 degree target.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19801990200020102020203020402050
CO2
Emis
sion
(PgC
O2)
Similar CO2 emissions pathways under different combinations of decarbonization measures
Global CO2 emission level achieving 2℃ is lower than the level in 1980s
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990200020102020203020402050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990200020102020203020402050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H 4)
020406080
100120140160
1990200020102020203020402050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
7
Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -
EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef
2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT
2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT
Equivalent to 2℃ decarbonization
Emissions pathways of SLCPs and air pollutants are different due to combinations of low-carbon and end-of-pipe measures, even if CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2℃ are similar.
0
50
100
150
200
1990200020102020203020402050
VOC
Emis
sion
(TgV
OC)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990200020102020203020402050
CO E
mis
sion
(TgC
O)
Almost same
CH4 pathways are almost the same(because major sources are agriculture and waste sectors)
8
Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -
100% electrification in building sector is effective for reducing BC, PM2.5 drastically and CO 100% EV in passenger transport is effective for reducing NMVOC largely and NOx Coal for power and industry plants with CCS has emission rebounds for SO2 and NOx
8
2D-EoPmid-CCS
2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD
2D-EoPmid-RESTRT
020406080
100120140160
1990200020102020203020402050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990200020102020203020402050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
Effects of 100% EV in passenger transport sector, by 2050
Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0
50
100
150
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
VOC
Emis
sion
(TgV
OC)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990200020102020203020402050
CO E
mis
sion
(TgC
O)
Effects of CCS coal power plant rather than RES promotion
EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990200020102020203020402050
CO E
mis
sion
(TgC
O)
0
50
100
150
200
1990200020102020203020402050
VOC
Emis
sion
(TgV
OC)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990200020102020203020402050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
020406080
100120140160
1990200020102020203020402050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
9
Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -
After enhancing renewables, effects of diffusing End-of-Pipe measures are very limited Combinations of renewables with 100% electrification in building and transport sector have
effective for drastically reducing BC, PM2.5 and largely reducing NMVOC and CO.
9
Effects of 100% EV in passenger transport sector, by 2050
Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050
Effects of 100% EoP by 2050
2D-EoPmax-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT
2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT
2D-EoPmid-RESEffects of 100% EoP by 2050
EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef
Diagnosis of Emissions Pathways Directions- reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions -
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
BC e
mis
sion
[val
ue in
201
0 =
1]
SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
CO2
emis
sion
[val
ue in
201
0 =
1]
SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
CO e
mis
sion
[val
ue in
201
0 =
1]
NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
VOC
emis
sion
[val
ue in
201
0 =
1]
NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]
Need to seek for balancing health benefits (e.g. reducing PM2.5, BC, SO2, NOx), climate benefits (e.g. reducing CO2, BC, CH4), and climate disadvantage (e.g. reducing OC, SO2, NOx, VOC).
10
2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES
2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT
2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD
2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT
Ref
Emissions under decarbonization and air quality control - Example in India -
Decarbonization measures provide SO2 emission abatement as a co-benefit. Decarbonization measures have a impact on BC reductions, but the amount of the BC reduction
is limited, because the increase of biomass is cheaper than electrification in building sector. Diffusion of drastic End-of-Pipe measures have large impacts on reducing SO2
11Both countermeasures
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010
Scen
ario
RF
Scen
ario
AP
Scen
ario
CP
Scen
ario
CP-A
P
2050
Emiss
ion
[Mto
n]
CO2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2010
Scen
ario
RF
Scen
ario
AP
Scen
ario
CP
Scen
ario
CP-A
P
2050
Other
Transport
Buildings
Industry
Energy
BC
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2010
Scen
ario
RF
Scen
ario
AP
Scen
ario
CP
Scen
ario
CP-A
P
2050
SO2Co-benefit of Decarbonizationon Air quality Co-benefit
of Decarbonizationon Air quality,but limited
ReferenceOnly Air quality
controls
Only Low carbonactions
Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research
Mitigation Costs of decarbonization and air quality control - Example in India -
12
the cost of diffusing air pollution control measures can be saved by introducing decarbonization measures, which can be regarded as “cost co-benefits”.
0
3.0 3.0
0.61
0
0.38
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
ScenarioAP
ScenarioCP
ScenarioCP-AP
Total costs[%
of Cum
ulative GD
P]
Cum
ulat
ive
cost
(201
0-20
50)
[Tril
lion
USD
]
Cost for Climate change mitigationCost for Air pollution controlTotal Costs (% of Cumulative GDP)
Cost co-benefits for end-of-pipe given by introducing low carbon actions
adopt both of low carbon measures and end-op-pipe measures
adopt only end-op-pipe measures
Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research
Mitigation Costs of achieving INDC target- Example of residential sector in 31 provincial analysis in China -
Emission profiles of CO2, BC, PM2.5 and SO2, and energy compositions of coal, biomass, gas, heat and electricity are largely different among urban / rural, depend on large / small provinces.
Carbon prices in residential sector range from 44 – 58 US$/tCO2 for achieving the INDC target
13Source) Xing R et al. (2017), Achieving China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Role of the Residential Sector, Journal of Cleaner Production, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.114