GHG Numbers to Assist in Understanding Controls

GHG Numbers to Assist in Understanding Controls

What Causes Global Climate Change?

GHG warming potential

2004 concentrations

Annual Mean Growth RateMauna Loa, Hawaii

What are our options for the future?• With “Business As Usual”

CO2 emissions will more than double by 2060

• To stabilize CO2 and other GHG levels in the atmosphere [at an “acceptable” level], emissions must be cut to 60-80% of 1990 levels by 2050.*

Numbers on Production and Sequestration and Offset Options for reducing GHG concentrations

-11

Primary US Sources of CO2

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Sequestration

(Metric tons of CO2 per acre per year

2.2 - 9.5

1.1 – 7.7

2.2 – 2.93

0.73

0.37 – 1.1

0.73 – 1.1

0.73

0.07 – 1.83

4.8 – 5.5

Examples• Texas – 261,000 Sq. miles of land area –

167 million acres at 640 acres per sq. mile• Texas forested acres – 17.1 million• Amount of CO2 sequestered annually if

first growth – 20-30 million tons• Managed existing growth – 15 million +

tons• Total already sequestered – 1.7 billion tons

of CO2 – market value – 30-68 billion $

Other States – source World Almanac

• Alaska – 120 million forested acres• California – 40.2 million forested acres• Oregon – 29.7 million • Georgia – 24.4 million• Alabama – 23.0 million (MS – 18.4)• Washington – 21.8 million• North Carolina– 19.1 million• Arizona – 19.1 million• Arkansas – 18.8 million• New York – 18.4 million

Maintaining Existing Forest Habitats

• Existing habitats that are maintained sequester carbon, but these cannot be registered under most offset and registry programs

• As a result they have received only a small percentage of the proceeds going towards carbon sequestration (Conservation International)

• Carbon sequestration rates vary by age, location, tree types, soil types, etc. and must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis for these existing forests

The Texas Prairie Systems

Prairie Grasslands

• Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) qualifies all 24 counties in the Greater Houston Region for a 1 ton CO2/acre/yr offset for grasslands

• Grasslands must be planted after January 1, 1999 to qualify (restoration back to natural state after conversion to agricultural land)

• Regions in the western United States are only estimated and allowed to register for 0.4 tons/acre offsets

Coastal Marshes

Tidal Saline Wetlands (TSWs)• Wetlands generally sequester between 0.33 and

0.49 tons of CO2/acre/yr (net)

• TSWs (including salt marshes)- carbon storage potential not as thoroughly studied - known for their exceptional rates of production- large quantity of sulfate contained in their soils= major

carbon sequestration advantage

- hinders production of methane (CH4), a very potent

greenhouse gas emitted by most freshwater and peatland wetlands

Local TSW Sequestration Rates

• Studies for the Gulf Coast spartina alterniflora TSWs, measured the rate of CO2 sequestration at:

- 1.56 tons of CO2/acre/yr in McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge

- 2.03 tons of CO2/acre/yr in Aranasas, Texas

- 3.33 tons of CO2/acre/yr in San Bernard, TX

• Global average for TSW’s CO2 sequestration is much higher (at 18.23 tons of CO2/yr)

Bays & Estuaries

From Sink to Source• Bays and estuaries can’t be “replanted” like other habitats, but their inflows

can be maintained to protect this carbon sink and prevent forming a source.

• Nueces River Delta near Corpus Christi, Texas, CO2

- exchange of the marsh was evaluated under two different situations— during flooding and dry periods

- Of recent, high salinity, low freshwater inflows due to dam construction and diversions

• High freshwater inflows after flooding = sequestration at a net rate of up to 73.45 tons of CO2/acre/yr.

• Low freshwater inflows during summer = production at a rate between 2.4 tons of CO2/acre/yr and 52.1 tons of CO2/acre/yr.

Flows have decreased significantly since 1994

GHG Production Numbers in context – Harris County, Texas

Compare to Sequestration Capability and Use for Understanding of

International Negotiations

Source: Purdue University, Vulcan Project

-GHG Emission in California vs. the ROUS and Texas

Harris County CO2 Emission Sources

Agricultural0%

Commercial4%

Industrial54%

Resdiental3%

Utility13%

Mobile26%

Agricultural

Commercial

Industrial

Resdiental

Utility

Mobile

From Purdue University, Vulcan Project, 2007

Offsetting Harris County Emissions

Harris County Emissions=18.6 Million Tons of CO2/yrOffsets tons CO2 sequestered/yr acres needed

Afforestation of Bottomland Hardwood Forests 4.99 3,206,412.83Replanted Grassland 1 16,000,000.00Restoration of Coastal Marsh 2.445 6,543,967.28

National Energy Technology Laboratory, “Increasing Security and Reducing Carbon Emissions of the U.S. Transportation Sector: A Transformational Role for Coal with Biomass,” August 24, 2007.

A Look at Refinery Emissions

Offsetting W.A. Parish Refinery’s Emissions

(2003)

Refinery Emissions=19.7Million Tons of CO2/yrOffsets tons CO2 sequestered/yr acres neededAfforestation of Bottomland Hardwood Forests 4.99 3,947,895.79Replanted Grassland 1 19,700,000.00Restoration of Coastal Marsh 2.445 8,057,259.71

US and Rest of World

How much is emitted in the US each year?

What percentage is from energy use?

-Note: This is ignoring emissions from LULUCF- Land use, land-use change, and forestry. A greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use, land-use change and forestry activities.

-From US UNFCCC Report, 2005.

-How U.S.

currently ranks on

a per capita basis

Each US Citizen . . .• Releases over 20 tons of CO2/yr~ 5 tons of C per year on

average.

• 4 tons of CO2 equals 1 ton of carbon• In the long run, the globe is limited to 7 GtC/yr, if we

estimate that population will only rise 0.2 billion more to 7 billion, than we can estimate a 1 ton C/person, or 3.67 tons of CO2/yr.

• This means if the US has 300 million people (lets estimate growth to 350), we should only consume 0.35 GtC, which means a 1.625 -0.35=1.275 GtC (or 4.675 GtCO2) decrease from current US GHG emissions in energy sector.

What if everyone used energy like an American?

• Global emissions from energy are 7.835 GtC/yr. The US is 1.625GtC/yr for 300 million people.

• If we assume there will soon be 7 billion people, and they all use the same amount of energy as the average American from the same sources and average carbon intensity, the world would be producing 37.92 GtC/yr instead of 7.835 GtC/yr.

To achieve this major decrease in our carbon emissions

• Each person must decrease their current consumption from 20 GtCO2/yr to 1.13GtC * (44/12) (GtCO2/GtC)= 4.14 GtCO2 or around 1 ton of C from around 5 tons

• This, approximately, 80% cut is a very conservative estimate. Al Gore says we need a 90% reduction in US emissions by 2050, and Oslo’s Climate Change Center suggests a 95% cut from the US.

What is Needed to Stabilize

8 Billion Ton (8 Gt) Reduction Needed

-1.6

-Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

-Curre

nt pat

h = “r

amp”

-Historical- emissions -Flat path

-0

-8

-16

-1950 -2000 -2050 -2100

-Stabilization Wedges

-16 GtC/y

-Eight “wedges”

-Goal: In 50 years, same-global emissions as today

-Energy Efficiency & -Conservation (4)

-CO2 Capture

-& Storage (3)

-

-Stabilization- Triangle

-Renewable Fuels

-& Electricity (4)

-Forest and Soil Storage (2)

-Fuel Switching

-(1)

-15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

-Nuclear Fission (1)

-2007 -2057

-8 GtC/y

-16 GtC/y

- Triangle-Stabilization