GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico

Transforming Transportation

GHG mitigation potential in the transport sector in Mexico

Hilda Martínez

Centro de Transporte Sustentable

de México

January 15, 2010

Content

National context

The role of transport in GHG emissions

GHG mitigations strategies (MEDEC)

Tackling the problem

Content

National context

Final energy consumption by sector

Source: National Energy Balance, SENER, 2008

Final energy consumption (2008) : 4815 PJ

National GHG Inventory (2006):CO2 equivalents per sector

711 millones ton of CO2 equivalents

Fugitive emissions 6%

Transport 20 %

Point sources 35%

Energy

61%

Industrial Processes

9%

Agriculture6%

Land use

10 %

Waste

14%

Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009

GHG Emissions by energy production and consumption, by sector

Source: Mexico’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework. Convention on Climate Change, INE, 2009

42.9 %

2.7 %25.8 %

63.3 %

1.5 %

65.2 %

Content

The role of transport in GHG emissions (MEDEC)

The problem

The country’s vehicle fleet triple from 8.3 The country’s vehicle fleet triple from 8.3 millions vehicles in 1996 to 21.5 millions in millions vehicles in 1996 to 21.5 millions in 2006 (average growth rate: 9.6%)2006 (average growth rate: 9.6%)

Mexico has followed a diffuse urbanization Mexico has followed a diffuse urbanization pattern, contributing for urban sprawl. pattern, contributing for urban sprawl.

Deteriorating quality of public transport Deteriorating quality of public transport

Motor vehicle ownership:Historical trend and projected growth

for selected countries

Source: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, World Wide, 1960-2030, Dargay, et al, 2007

Source: Ownership/Per Capita Income [CTS with data from Dargay et al., 2007]

Ownership /per capita income

Specific factors of vehicle ownership growth in Mexico

Source: CTS Mexico with SENER and INEGI data

1. Constant fuel real prices: Makes the ownership of vehicles cheap

Source: Banxico, 2009

2. Credit access: facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population

Source: SHCP, 2007

Source: SEMARNAT, 2008

3. Import of used vehicles : also facilitates the acquisition of vehicles by a greater proportion of the population

Mexico projection of total fleet by type of vehicle (2009- 2030)

Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008

Mexico projection of total emission per mode (2009- 2030)

Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008

Content

GHG mitigations strategies (MEDEC)

Proposed StrategyTo face the difficulties that the transport sector represent ,an integrated strategy is required

Alternate Scenario CTS / MEDEC

Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008

People Mobility

Technology

Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008

Externality and time costs for MEDEC Transport Interventions

Marginal Abetment cost curves

MEDEC findings

A dense urban growth policy helps to increase the demand for mass transit systems and hence improves their efficiency.

Measures that improved mobility (travel time and life quality) for people where the ones that offered more social savings.

Transport should be considered as an integrated system formed by a combination of elements

Failing to recognize these interrelations in the design of a transport policy may jeopardize its overall success

Content

Tackling the problem

BRT SystemsBRT Systems operating in 3 cities:

Mexico (Metrobus)

Guadalajara (Macrobus)

León (Optibus)

Federal Support Program for Mass Transit (PROTRAM): 32 cities applying to the program

Objectives:• Support cities in developing Mass Transit Investment Projects with high social justification• Support projects that are integrated to Sustainable Mobility Plans • Complement local government investment & maximize private investment • Strengthen local institutions in urban transport planning , regulation & management.

Energy efficiency proposal for new light duty vehicles

Objective: to achieve18 km/l corporate average fuel economy for the new light duty vehicle fleet in 2015 (equivalent 130 gr CO2/km)

Policy to:Mitigate GHG emissions

Curve fossils fuels consumption

To cut fossil fuels subsidies (2.01% of the GDP, 2008)

To diminish fossil fuels imports (44% of the total consumption in 2008)

Nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA)

Optimization of conventional bus system (e.g. unified pricing system for all public transport modes, etc.).

Financing scheme for a comprehensive scrapping program

THANK YOU

[email protected]

http://www.ctsmexico.org