Ghana_Banks_170614(3)

Ghanaian banks Navigating a rough patch

Sector update Equity Research 17June 2014

Banks Ghana

Ghanas macro outlook concerns us and the longer this persists, the more we expect the banks fundamentals to deteriorate. We downgrade Ecobank Ghana to SELL (from Hold) on the basis of its valuation, while maintaining our SELL on CAL Bank and our HOLD on GCB.

Testing macro conditions

We remain concerned about macro conditions in Ghana on multiple fronts, including: 1) the continued slide in its exchange rate, down 29% YtD; 2) rising inflation, now at 14.8% in May vs a target of 9.5% for the year; and 3) high and rising twin deficits. Though the MPC has been active in announcing a string of policies (including raising the MPR and CRR, as well as introducing stringent forex regulations), these have had little impact on stabilising the currency. We do not see macro conditions improving in the near term and see significant upside risks to interest rates ahead.

Mixed margin outlook

Ghanaian banks NIMs are broadly higher than in FY12; though we think some banks have room for expansion, we think the potential for this is depressed by upward pressure on funding costs at other banks and an increase in interest-in-suspense. In this environment, we think GCB remains in the best position to benefit, while EGH also should see some NIM expansion based on a growing cedi balance sheet. We expect CALs NIM to face pressure from the above mentioned factors.

Asset quality the key risk

While we acknowledge the risk to asset quality from having lending rates in the high-20% range, we do not expect an NPL crisis similar in scale to the 2008-2010 period. Exposure to retail lending is low (mostly mortgages, payroll, asset-backed finance and cooperative lending) and banks have tightened lending criteria since then. That said, we think banks that are significant players in SME lending, trade and public sector could witness the most rapid deterioration in their asset quality positions. Within our coverage universe, our greatest concern is CALs asset-quality outlook.

Valuation and ratings

We downgrade EGH to SELL and raise our TP to GHS6.3 (previously Hold, TP: GHS5.2) based on full valuations and we see 10% potential downside from the current price. We maintain our SELL rating on CAL and raise our TP to GHS0.94 (previously Sell, TP: GHS0.86); despite offering 6% potential upside, we do not find this sufficient for a mid-tier Ghanaian bank at such a high-risk point in the cycle in a rapidly weakening environment. We maintain our HOLD rating on GCB, slightly raising our TP to GHS5.8 (previously Hold, TP: GHS5.0), which implies 9% potential upside. Overall, our ratings are constrained by the low cedi upside potential on these stocks, which we do not view as compelling enough in an environment of 20-30% annual currency depreciation.

Adesoji Solanke +234 (1) 448-5300 x5384 [email protected] Nothando Ndebele +27 (11) 750-1472 [email protected]

Important disclosures are found at the Disclosures Appendix. Communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission, which together with non-US affiliates operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital.

Figure 1: Summary valuations and ratings GCB EGH CAL Bloomberg ticker GCB GN EBG GN CAL GN Rating HOLD SELL SELL Currency GHS GHS GHS Price on 11 June 2014 5.35 7.00 0.89 Target price 5.84 6.30 0.94 Upside potential 8% -10% 6% MktCap, $mn 456.6 661.1 157.2 2014E P/B, x 2.2 3.0 1.3 2015E P/B, x 1.6 2.5 1.1 2014E P/E, x 5.4 6.7 4.3 2015E P/E, x 4.5 5.6 3.5 2014E div yield 5% 9% 8% 2014E RoE 47% 49% 35%

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Renaissance Capital 17 June 2014

Ghanaian banks

Our SSA economist, Yvonne Mhango, recently wrote in her report SSA: External debt positions How vulnerable are they? that the Ghana cedi needs to weaken by 25-30% to GHS3.7-3.9/$1 by YE15 for its current account deficit to become less problematic for its debt sustainability. When we consider that the cedi has depreciated by 107% since YE10, and 29% YtD, this is concerning and her view aptly highlights the conundrum of the macro situation in Ghana. Coupled with the weakness in the currency is rising inflation (14.8% in May 2014 vs a 9.5% target for the year), as well as high and rising twin deficits. In contrast to feedback from our 3Q13 meetings in Ghana, business confidence levels have dropped and the outlook for credit growth is now less optimistic.

In light of the above, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) introduced a series of measures this year that unfortunately have done little to stem the weakness in the economic indices. Some of these measures are listed below.

1. Raised the MPR 200 bpts to 18% from 16% at its emergency meeting in February 2014.

2. Hiked the CRR to 11% from 9% (unlike Nigeria, the CRR in Ghana is applied to both local and foreign currency deposits).

3. Reduced the single currency net open position (NOP) to 5% from 10%, and the aggregate NOP to 10% from 20%, at its April MPC meeting.

4. Introduced a set of foreign exchange regulations with a view to keeping the exchange rate in check.

Since the hike in the MPR to 18% and introduction of the forex rules, the cedi has depreciated by 27%.

To put Ghanas current macro dynamics in context, we take a look at the events in Ghana during the three-year period from 2008-2010, drawing some similarities and differences with the macro and banking sector picture of today.

A lesson in history: 2008-2010

In our initiation report on Ghana, Ghanaian banks - Hitting the mark, published 25 March 2013, we noted that Ghanas NPL ratio spiked in the aftermath of the global financial crisis on the back of a series of events.

1. The cedi depreciated by 31% and 13%, respectively, in 2008 and 2009, after years of exchange rate stability.

2. This caused a significant jump in inflation, to 18% in 2008, from 13% in 2007. Inflation was 16% by the end of 2009.

3. The BoG tried to manage the exchange rate and inflation by raising the monetary policy rate (MPR); from 13.5% in FY07, the MPR rose to 17% by the end of 2008 and was increased further to 18.5% by February 2009.

4. This resulted in a steady increase in lending rates. From 19% in FY07, the average prime lending rate rose to 27% by FY08 and peaked at 33% in 2Q09.

5. The rising lending rates coincided with increased lending to retail and SMEs by Ghanaian banks, in response to competitive pressure from new entrants,

2


Ghanaian banks

including some Nigerian banks. This strategic move in lending proved problematic, as the banks lacked experience in lending to these segments of the market, hence they did not have the appropriate structures in place to manage the risks arising from retail/SME lending.

6. There was also a delay from the government in repaying its obligations to contractors and service providers, which affected the banking sector negatively.

Figure 2: Ghana - asset quality history

Source: BoG, Renaissance Capital

Recent events

In light of current events, we draw some similarities and differences between the 2007-2010 period and recent events.

1. The yearly rate of cedi depreciation has been rising: since 2010 when the Cedi lost 4%, it depreciated 10% in 2011, 16% in 2012, 25% in 2013 and has depreciated by 29% YtD.

2. Inflationary trends have been on the rise, as YoY inflation figures stood at 14.7% in April 2014 vs 13.5% in YE13 and 8.8% YE12.

3. To counter the trend of currency weakness and rising inflation, the BoG has been raising the MPR since February 2012: 100 bpts in February 2012 to 13.5%, another 100 bpts to 14.5% in April 2012, 50 bpts to 15.0% in June 2012, 100 bpts to 16.0% in May 2013, then 200 bpts to 18.0% in February 2014.

The CRR has also been tightened, rising to 9% in 2012 and 11% in April 2014. We believe the continued use of the CRR partly reflects the magnitude of the challenge the BoG is facing with maintaining exchange rate stability.

4. Consequently, banks base rates have been on the rise. According to data provided by Business Ghana, base rates in Ghana have risen by c. 300 bpts to 24.0% since January 2014.

We note that when the MPR peaked at 18.5% in February 2009, the prime lending rate in Ghana touched 33.0% before retreating. Thus, given the present macro dynamics in Ghana, we see upside risks to the interest rate outlook in the near term. Similar to the data from Business Ghana, banks under our coverage have all raised their base rates in the aftermath of the CRR hike.

7.9% 6.9% 7.7%

16.2% 17.6%14.1% 13.2% 12.0%

3.6% 3.6% 4.3%

9.3%6.2% 5.3% 5.2% 4.3%

54%47% 45% 43%

65% 62% 61%65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NPLs/gross loans, % NPLs (ex-lost)/gross loans, % Lost NPLs/total NPLs

3


Ghanaian banks

Figure 3: Base rates, % Old base rate Current base rate EGH 22.0 24.0 GCB 19.5 19.9 CAL 25.0 27.0 System average 21.4 24.1

Source: Business Ghana, company data, Renaissance Capital

Figure 4: Ghana - interest rates, %


5. The key difference between the current scenario and the 2008-2010 period is that retail lending occurs in a more structured manner today than the recklessness that characterised the last cycle. This is evidenced in the more-cautious approach the banks take to retail lending, with most focused on payroll and cooperative lending to retail. Therefore, we do not foresee an NPL crisis on the scale of the last crisis. Nonetheless, we think asset-quality risks are on the rise and reflective in the macro and bottom-up data. Overall, we think banks that are significant players in SME lending, trade and the public sector could experience the most-rapid deterioration in their asset-quality positions. Risks in the retail segment could potentially arise from mortgage lending, which has been growing over the past few years.

YtD, system NPLs are up 15.0%, with the NPL ratio rising to 12.7% in February 2014 vs 12.0% in YE13. Gross loans are up 8.0% over the same period. Amongst the banks in our coverage universe, GCB and CAL have experienced modest pick-ups in their NPL ratios YtD, while EGH is the reverse as it has largely cleaned up its TTB book.

Outlook for margins

Although interest rates are on the rise, the outlook for margins is mixed for banks under our coverage. We note that some banks, particularly the smaller ones, are facing upward pressure on funding costs as term deposit rates pick up, partly driven by competition. We understand that amongst the non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), rural and community banks, term deposit rates are still tracking treasury bill yields (currently north of 20%), which makes deposit growth somewhat challenging for the commercial banks. The other key risk we see to margins is the impact of growing NPLs on interest-in-suspense, which constrained asset yields at EGH and CAL in 1Q14, despite the increase in their base rates and the broadly rising interest rate environment.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-

06

Jun-

06

Nov-0

6

Apr-0

7

Sep-

07

Feb-

08

Jul-0

8

Dec-0

8

May-0

9

Oct-0

9

Mar-1

0

Aug-

10

Jan-

11

Jun-

11

Nov-1

1

Apr-1

2

Sep-

12

Feb-

13

Jul-1

3

Dec-1

3

MPR 91-day TB rate Term deposits (90 days)Prime lending rate Spread

4


Ghanaian banks

Figure 5: Margin dynamics, % Asset yield FY12 FY13 1Q14 FY14E EGH 14.9 13.5 13.8 14.7 GCB 17.5 21.0 22.2 22.8 CAL 16.9 22.2 20.2 21.8 Cost of funds FY12 FY13 1Q14 FY14E EGH 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 GCB 2.2 3.5 3.2 3.4 CAL 7.5 11.5 10.5 11.5 NIM FY12 FY13 1Q14 FY14E EGH 11.4 11.1 11.5 12.3 GCB 15.1 17.5 19.0 19.5 CAL 9.8 12.0 10.9 11.5

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

We think GCB remains the best positioned among these three to benefit from the structurally higher interest rate environment in 2014, given its highly liquid balance sheet (loan/assets of 27% in 1Q14) and we expect its margins to widen by 200 bpts to 19% in FY14E.

EGH should also experience some margin improvement in our view, as the new rules on forex transactions, which place limits on new forex loans, imply that cedi loan growth by the lender should be stronger this year, while keeping funding costs in check. As at FY13, 49% of the banks loan book was forex, up from 40% in FY12. This compares with 22% for GCB and 35% for CAL.

We think CAL could face some NIM compression based on rising funding costs, as its ability to offset this through higher base rates could be constrained by asset quality implications for suspended interest and asset yields.

The new forex regulations have significant implications for the nature of credit growth going forward. Under the new regulations: 1) banks are prevented from granting new forex loans to non-forex earners, 2) undrawn forex loans shall be converted into cedis, 3) existing forex loans to non-forex earners shall run until expiry, and 4) forex loans to residents by resident banks are to be serviced in cedis. These measures suggest to us that the growth in forex loans in the Ghanaian banking system, which has been on the rise in the past few years, is likely to stall. As at end-February 2014, forex loans comprised 38% of total loans vs 27% in YE08. Furthermore, we expect cedi loans to pick up, which could be mildly positive for some banks margins; e.g. EGH expects that c. 15% of its forex loan book (c. 7% of total loans) should shift to local currency in 2014.

Figure 6: Ghana - forex as % of net loans and deposits


27% 27%

31%

34%31%

35%

38%

26%

31%

24% 25%27% 27%

28%

20%

24%

28%

32%

36%

40%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb-14

Net loans Deposits

5


Ghanaian banks

Outlook for NIR

EGH is the NIR champion in our Ghana universe, while GCB still lags. The continued depreciation in the exchange rate has been positive for banks trading revenue. For EGH and CAL, which respectively sourced 43% and 57% of 1Q14 NIR from trading revenue, we understand this was largely revenue from client-related transactions. Growth on this line has been supported by growing customer volume, partly in response to the depreciating trend as customers load up for anticipated future transactions. Nonetheless, we expect the reduced spreads on forex transactions to hinder the growth somewhat in future trading revenue.

For GCB, we think any positive surprise on NIR in 2014 will be driven by fee and commission income, as the bank is gradually beginning to optimise the benefits of its footprint in Ghana by pricing appropriately for certain services in line with market trends. We still think significant upside potential exists for growth in trading revenue for GCB, as it finalises much-needed investment in its trading and corporate banking platform/structure.

Figure 7: NIR split - FY13

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital

Outlook for asset quality

We think the asset-quality position in Ghana could worsen, given the deteriorating macro conditions and rising lending rates. The currency weakness, high inflation and high lending rates are putting marked pressure on customers loan-repayment capabilities. The BoGs financial stability report to February 2014 states that while profitability trends in the banking sector remain positive, present economic conditions have implications for the health of the financial sector. The report highlights the tightening of lending requirements for loans to enterprises, while stating an observed decrease in fixed, working capital and inventory-related credit demand, but an increase in debt restructuring requests from businesses. However, mortgage credit demand has been resilient, albeit with tightened security requirements, while demand for consumer loans has slowed based on high lending rates and tighter lending requirements by the banks. On balance, NPLs are up 15% in the first two months of 2014, which we find concerning.

EGH has largely cleaned up its TTB loan book and expects its FY14E impairment charge to drop by more than 50%. Recoveries are still ongoing, however. GCB management is not overly concerned about its asset-quality outlook and believes its NPL ratio could remain flat as credit growth should offset the impact of a build-up in NPLs. It also expects impairment charges to remain in line with FY12 levels.

56%71%

39%

40%25%

41%

4% 4%19%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

EGH GCB CAL

Fee and commissions Trading revenues Others

6


Ghanaian banks

Figure 8: Cost of risk, % Cost of risk FY12 FY13 1Q14 FY14E EGH 2.2 3.0 0.8 1.0 GCB 1.3 -1.0 na 1.2 CAL 2.9 2.0 na 2.0

Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Primer on CALs risk management

Among the banks under our coverage, CALs NPL ratio is experiencing the most pressure, with NPLs more than doubling in 2013 and adding another estimated 5-10% in 1Q14 YtD. We estimate its NPL ratio increased to 8.1% in 1Q14 vs 7.9% in FY13 and 5.1% in FY12. According to management, an issue around the interest rate on a government-linked loan for the construction of a hostel was the key driver of new NPLs 77% of new NPLs in 2013. According to management, it has sufficient collateral for classified exposures and is positive on recoveries. Nonetheless, we still have some concerns about CALs asset-quality outlook. Firstly, at 48% in FY13, its coverage ratio screens quite low and we fear the banks threshold for corporate loans is also low. Management defines corporate loans as business loan amounts of GHS500k (c. $163k) and/or companies with annual turnover exceeding GHS2.5mn (c. $815k). We think some of these loans could qualify as SME loans in other African jurisdictions we cover and, in a rapidly rising interest rate environment, we are concerned about the implications for asset quality. Other sectors of concern we see for CAL include import/export trade (partly downstream oil and gas) and cocoa marketing. We will monitor the banks high but rapidly reducing government exposure at 16% in 1Q14 vs 26% in FY12, in light of the deteriorating macro challenges.

Since CAL took its sizeable write-offs in 2009 and 2010, the business has undergone an extensive transformation. Today, CAL describes itself as a predominantly corporate-focused bank, as it has reduced its retail lending exposure to 13% in FY13 from 20% in FY10. For CAL, retail is strictly asset-backed finance (mortgages, vehicles) to high-end retail customers, as well as payroll lending to employees of its corporates where there is an employer guarantee. To improve its NPL remedial process, in 2012 CAL strengthened its internal NPL monitoring team, which is based in all three regions of Ghana (Greater Accra, Western and Ashanti). More importantly in our view, however, it employs the services of external legal firms and other private recovery agents, which account for c. 80% of the banks NPL collections. For its government loans, management stressed the depth of structures it places around these exposures to mitigate asset-quality risks, such as getting parliamentary approvals and sovereign guarantees. The banks exposure in the public sector spans education (construction of schools), health (purchase of equipment), power (electrification projects, power plants, power supply), defence, water and housing (for publicly owned tertiary institutions).

7


Ghanaian banks

Figure 9: CAL loan book split - 1Q14


Figure 10: CAL loan book split - 1Q13


Agriculture, 0% Mining, 3%Manufacturing, 4%

Construction, 24%

Electricity, water & gas, 9%

Commerce & finance, 23%

Transport & communication, 3%

Miscellaneous, 5%

Services, 13%

Government, 16%

Agriculture, 0% Mining, 2%Manufacturing, 4%

Construction, 22%

Electricity, water & gas, 7%

Commerce & finance, 20%

Transport & communication, 3%

Miscellaneous, 5%

Services, 11%

Government, 26%

8


Ghanaian banks

In valuing the Ghanaian banks, we have raised our risk-free rate by 200 bpts, to reflect the higher interest rate environment in the country, while we maintained other key valuation inputs.

Figure 11: Valuation assumptions GCB EGH CAL

Risk free rate 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% Risk premium 6% 6% 6% Beta 1.1 1.1 1.3 CoE 22% 22% 23% Sustainable RoE 40% 40% 30% g 10% 10% 10% FV P/B, x 2.5 2.5 1.5 12M TP per share, GHS 5.84 6.30 0.94 Current share price, GHS 5.35 7.00 0.89 Potential upside/downside 9% -10% 6% Rating HOLD SELL SELL

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Ghana Commercial Bank (GCB) HOLD, TP: GHS5.8

We maintain our HOLD rating on GCB, slightly raising our TP to GHS5.8 (previously Hold, TP: GHS5.0), which implies 9% upside potential from the current price. We view GCB as a prime play on the structurally higher interest rate environment in Ghana given its significantly liquid, cedi-denominated balance sheet. We acknowledge the significant headroom the bank has to deliver superior growth in NIR, as it finalises investments in its trading and corporate banking platform and optimises fee income from its expansive customer base, in line with market trends. We think costs will remain elevated, driven by: 1) exchange rate depreciation effects on forex-linked costs; and 2) substantial investments in the business infrastructure, including rebranding efforts, opening and relocation of branches, as well as its accelerated amortisation practices. We expect CIR to rise to 48% in FY14E from 45% in 1Q14.

Going forward, we would like to see its loans/assets pick up progressively, which would give us more comfort around the banks ability to stem a sharp slide in its margins, should interest rates in Ghana start pulling back. In addition, we highlight the significant risk to RoE and our valuation on the back of rising capital retention, which has severely depressed GCBs leverage levels. Leverage dropped from 11.5x in FY12 to 8.4x in FY13, and further to 7.1x in 1Q14. According to management, it intends to maintain its dividend payout ratio at c. 30% over the medium term to 2017, as it believes it needs to retain more cedi capital to boost its single obligor limit in dollars, which has been dropping sharply due to the depreciating currency. In addition, Moodys rating of the bank factors in a 100% risk weight for government liquid assets, hence the need to maintain a fairly high CAR. On our forecasts, we see RoE declining to 47% in FY14E and 33% by FY16E, in line with managements guidance of 30-35% in the medium term.

Ecobank Ghana (EGH) SELL, TP GHS6.30

We downgrade EGH to SELL, and increase our TP to GHS6.30 (previously Hold, GHS5.2), which implies 10% potential downside. The share price has run relatively hard, in our view (up 25% YtD vs 10% for GCB and -8% for CAL), and on our estimates it now trades at a respective FY14E P/B and P/E of 3.0x and 6.7x, vs an average of 1.8x and 4.9x for GCB and CAL. Considering the steady annual decline in the exchange rate over the past few years, we would need to see reasonable cedi upside potential on these names to justify a Buy or Hold rating.

Valuation and rating changes

9


Ghanaian banks

Fundamentally, we like EGHs business case and expect PBT growth of 63% YoY in FY14E. Amongst the banks in our universe, we believe EGH has more sustainable earnings momentum given the relatively more balanced posture of its balance sheet. It continues to gain market share and is one of Ghanas leading banks in trade finance and forex trading. We see its margins expanding in FY13E by 120 bpts (management guided for 200 bpts), on the back of: 1) rising interest rates, 2) stable funding costs, 3) conversion of some forex loans to cedi, and 4) growth in its cedi loan book. After two years of cleaning out its TTB loan book, management believes this is largely complete and expects FY14E impairment charges to more than halve. Overall, we see a combination of margin expansion, resilient NIR and lower cost of risk translating to improved RoE of 49% in FY14E vs. 37% in FY13.

CAL Bank (CAL) SELL, TP GHS0.94

We maintain our SELL rating on CAL, with a TP of GHS0.94 (previous: SELL, GHS0.86), as we do not find 6% potential upside sufficient for a mid-tier Ghanaian bank at such a high-risk point in the cycle in a rapidly weakening environment. CAL has recorded substantial growth and returns in the past few years and we think returns could remain fairly decent over the medium term. Our key concerns, however, are: 1) margin compression based on rising funding costs and the impact of classified loans on asset yields; and 2) asset quality. We have already detailed the key asset-quality considerations for CAL earlier in this note. We acknowledge the stringent efforts made by management in the structuring of its loans, but we think that the longer macro weaknesses persist, the quicker significant credit deterioration issues could begin to emerge at CAL. As we would expect, management has a fairly tempered outlook for credit growth this year and is focused on managing the quality of its loan book and optimising margins.

Figure 12: EM banks, FY14E P/B (x-axis, x) vs FY14E RoE (y-axis, %)

Source: Bloomberg, company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

RussiaNigeria

PolandTurkey

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Ghana

S/AfricaChina

India

Brazil

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2

10


Ghanaian banks

Figure 13: Regression analysis of SSA banks, FY14E P/B (x-axis, x) vs FY14E RoE (y-axis, %)

Source: Bloomberg, company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

GCB EGH

CAL

Zenith

GTB

FBN

UBA Equity

KCBCoop

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

0.9x 1.1x 1.3x 1.5x 1.7x 1.9x 2.1x 2.3x 2.5x 2.7x 2.9x 3.1x

11


Ghanaian banks

Figure 14: GCB financial summary, GHSmn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 19.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 29.2 30.9

Interbank 217 38 170 213 266 306 Deposits/liabilities 83.7 78.2 77.1 74.0 72.1 70.9 Securities 1,201 1,516 1,719 1,839 2,060 2,307 Loans/deposits 23.1 36.4 36.6 38.0 40.6 43.5 Net loans 476 848 961 1,147 1,429 1,796 Equity/assets 7.2 9.9 13.7 16.0 18.0 19.1 Gross loans 611 993 1,096 1,315 1,644 2,054 Interest-earning assets 1,894 2,402 2,850 3,199 3,755 4,409 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 2,460 2,981 3,405 4,081 4,887 5,820 Tier 1 10.8 15.5 20.6 25.2 29.0 31.0

Tier 2 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Liabilities

Total 10.7 14.9 20.7 25.3 29.1 31.1 Interbank 0 0 0 0 0 0 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 2,058 2,330 2,625 3,019 3,523 4,128 NPLs, GHcmn 159 169 153 197 238 288 Interest-bearing liabilities 2,137 2,504 2,733 3,165 3,698 4,338 NPL reserves, GHcmn 135 146 135 168 214 259 Total liabilities 2,460 2,981 3,405 4,081 4,887 5,820 NPLs/gross loans, % 26.00 17.00 14.00 15.00 14.50 14.00 Shareholders equity 178 296 466 652 878 1,113 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.85 0.90 0.90

Credit charge, % 1.23 1.32 -1.01 1.22 1.21 1.48

Income statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Margins, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Interest income 257 376 552 688 857 886 Asset margin 14.55 17.51 21.02 22.76 24.66 21.72 Interest expense (50) (51) (92) (99) (131) (134) Liability margin 2.62 2.19 3.52 3.35 3.81 3.33 Net interest income 207 325 460 590 727 753 NIM 11.73 15.14 17.52 19.49 20.90 18.44 Net fee income 65 69 77 105 133 169 Spread 11.93 15.32 17.51 19.41 20.85 18.38 Trading income 13 17 27 21 30 42 Other income 4 7 4 11 13 17 Costs, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total revenue 289 418 568 726 903 980 Cost/income 87.0 52.9 47.6 48.0 49.0 50.0 Staff costs (136) (144) (170) (218) (271) (304) Cost/avge assets 11.05 8.13 8.47 9.31 9.87 9.15 Other costs (115) (77) (100) (131) (172) (186) Effective tax rate 42.2 25.9 27.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 Total costs (251) (221) (270) (349) (442) (490) Operating profit 37 197 298 378 461 490 Profitability ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Provisioning charge (11) (11) 11 (15) (18) (27) RoAE 10.0 60.3 60.2 46.6 41.3 33.1 Other pre-tax items 4 7 9 9 9 9 RoAA 0.8 5.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.2 Pre-tax profit 31 193 317 372 451 471 Tax (13) (50) (88) (112) (135) (141) Other P&L ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenue 71.7 77.8 81.0 81.2 80.5 76.8 Other post-tax gains/losses 1 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/revenue 22.4 16.5 13.6 14.4 14.7 17.2 Net profit 19 143 229 260 316 330 Trading income/revenue 4.7 4.0 4.7 3.0 3.3 4.3 Dividend on common shares (0) (0) (1) (1) (1) (1) Fees/staff costs 47.5 47.9 45.4 48.1 49.1 55.6 Dividend on pref shares na na na na na na Fees/total costs 25.7 31.3 28.5 30.0 30.1 34.5

Payout ratio 97.8 25.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6

Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans (45.4) 62.5 10.3 20.0 25.0 25.0 Employees 2,148 2,108 2,314 2,273 2,169 2,083 Interest-earning assets 16.0 26.8 18.7 12.3 17.4 17.4 Branches 148 157 157 157 157 157 Deposits 29.9 13.2 12.6 15.0 16.7 17.2 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 29.0 17.2 9.1 15.8 16.8 17.3 ATMs 77 101 na na na na Assets 18.0 21.2 14.2 19.9 19.7 19.1 Fee income 40.6 7.2 11.5 35.7 27.1 26.8 Revenue (13.0) 44.9 35.9 27.8 24.3 8.5 Costs 30.5 (11.9) 22.2 28.9 26.9 10.7 Operating profit (73.1) 426.2 51.3 26.8 21.9 6.4 Net profit (62.7) 653.6 60.3 13.5 21.4 4.4 EPS (64.7) 695.5 60.3 13.5 21.4 4.4 Per share data, GHc 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No. common shares, mn 265 265 265 265 265 265 EPS 0.07 0.54 0.86 0.98 1.19 1.25 DPS 0.07 0.14 0.25 0.28 0.34 0.36 BVPS 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

GCB financial summary, GHS

12


Ghanaian banks

Figure 15: GCB financial summary, $mn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 19.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 29.2 30.9

Interbank 132 20 72 65 68 78 Deposits/liabilities 83.7 78.2 77.1 74.0 72.1 70.9 Securities 732 798 722 557 528 592 Loans/deposits 23.1 36.4 36.6 38.0 40.6 43.5 Net loans 290 446 404 348 366 460 Equity/assets 7.2 9.9 13.7 16.0 18.0 19.1 Gross loans 373 523 460 398 421 527 Interest-earning assets 1,155 1,264 1,197 969 963 1,130 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 1,500 1,569 1,431 1,237 1,253 1,492 Tier 1 10.8 15.5 20.6 25.2 29.0 31.0

Tier 2 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Liabilities

Total 10.7 14.9 20.7 25.3 29.1 31.1 Interbank 0 0 0 0 0 0 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 1,255 1,226 1,103 915 903 1,059 NPLs, $mn 97 89 64 60 61 74 Interest-bearing liabilities 1,303 1,318 1,148 959 948 1,112 NPL reserves, $mn 82 77 57 51 55 66 Total liabilities 1,500 1,569 1,431 1,237 1,253 1,492 NPLs/gross loans, % 26.00 17.00 14.00 15.00 14.50 14.00 Shareholders equity 109 156 196 198 225 285 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.85 0.90 0.90

Credit charge, % 1.23 1.32 -1.01 1.22 1.21 1.48


Interest income 166 203 264 242 242 250 Asset margin 14.55 17.51 21.02 22.76 24.66 21.72 Interest expense (32) (28) (44) (35) (37) (38) Liability margin 2.62 2.19 3.52 3.35 3.81 3.33 Net interest income 133 176 220 208 205 213 NIM 11.73 15.14 17.52 19.49 20.90 18.44 Net fee income 42 37 37 37 38 48 Spread 11.93 15.32 17.51 19.41 20.85 18.38 Trading income 9 9 13 8 8 12 Other income 2 4 2 4 4 5 Costs, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total revenue 186 226 272 256 255 277 Cost/income 87.0 52.9 47.6 48.0 49.0 50.0 Staff costs (88) (78) (81) (77) (77) (86) Cost/avge assets 11.05 8.13 8.47 9.31 9.87 9.15 Other costs (74) (42) (48) (46) (48) (53) Effective tax rate 42.2 25.9 27.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 Total costs (162) (120) (129) (123) (125) (138) Operating profit 24 106 142 133 130 138 Profitability ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Provisioning charge (7) (6) 5 (5) (5) (8) RoAE 10.0 60.3 60.2 46.6 41.3 33.1 Other pre-tax items 3 4 4 3 2 2 RoAA 0.8 5.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.2 Pre-tax profit 20 104 152 131 128 133 Tax (8) (27) (42) (39) (38) (40) Other P&L ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenue 71.7 77.8 81.0 81.2 80.5 76.8 Other post-tax gains/losses 1 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/revenue 22.4 16.5 13.6 14.4 14.7 17.2 Net profit 12 77 110 92 89 93 Trading income/revenue 4.7 4.0 4.7 3.0 3.3 4.3 Dividend on common shares (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Fees/staff costs 47.5 47.9 45.4 48.1 49.1 55.6 Dividend on pref shares n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Fees/total costs 25.7 31.3 28.5 30.0 30.1 34.5

Payout ratio 97.8 25.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6

Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans (50.4) 40.3 (12.0) (13.5) 5.8 25.0 Employees 2,148 2,108 2,314 2,273 2,169 2,083 Interest-earning assets 5.4 9.4 (5.3) (19.0) (0.7) 17.4 Branches 148 157 157 157 157 157 Deposits 18.1 (2.3) (10.1) (17.1) (1.3) 17.2 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 17.2 1.1 (12.9) (16.5) (1.1) 17.3 ATMs 77 101 na na na na Assets 7.2 4.6 (8.8) (13.5) 1.3 19.1 Fee income 29.8 (10.2) (1.3) (0.1) 2.0 26.8 Revenue (19.7) 21.4 20.3 (5.9) (0.3) 8.5 Costs 20.4 (26.2) 8.2 (5.1) 1.8 10.7 Operating profit (75.2) 340.9 33.9 (6.7) (2.2) 6.4 Net profit (65.6) 531.4 41.9 (16.4) (2.6) 4.4 EPS (67.4) 566.5 41.9 (16.4) (2.6) 4.4 Per share data, $ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No. common shares, mn 265 265 265 265 265 265 EPS 0.04 0.29 0.41 0.35 0.34 0.35 DPS 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 BVPS 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

GCB financial summary, $

13


Ghanaian banks

Figure 16: Ecobank Ghana financial summary, GHSmn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 39.9 40.7 45.3 47.1 50.0 50.8

Interbank 360 844 946 946 898 988 Deposits/liabilities 75.4 71.9 69.2 70.8 72.0 73.1 Securities 585 693 986 1,134 1,361 1,634 Loans/deposits 52.8 56.7 65.5 66.6 69.4 69.6 Net loans 850 1,397 2,127 2,672 3,345 4,022 Equity/assets 12.3 13.3 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 Gross loans 864 1,456 2,221 2,776 3,470 4,164 Interest-earning assets 1,794 2,933 4,059 4,752 5,605 6,644 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 2,132 3,428 4,694 5,671 6,695 7,911 Tier 1 8.5 11.0 10.3 13.2 13.1 12.9

Tier 2 5.0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.8

Liabilities

Total 13.6 14.8 13.7 15.9 15.3 14.6 Interbank 108 276 519 519 519 519 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 1,608 2,465 3,247 4,014 4,817 5,781 NPLs, GHcmn 43 97 135 139 156 167 Interest-bearing liabilities 1,820 2,873 3,904 4,699 5,527 6,509 NPL reserves, GHcmn 14 59 94 104 125 142 Total liabilities 2,132 3,428 4,694 5,671 6,695 7,911 NPLs/gross loans, % 4.94 6.70 6.10 5.00 4.50 4.00 Shareholders equity 263 456 561 675 813 976 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.33 0.61 0.69 0.75 0.80 0.85

Credit charge, % 0.89 2.18 3.01 1.01 0.99 0.96


Interest income 171 353 474 648 787 914 Asset margin 11.03 14.95 13.55 14.71 15.20 14.93 Interest expense (42) (83) (84) (107) (138) (165) Liability margin 2.72 3.54 2.48 2.49 2.70 2.74 Net interest income 129 270 390 541 649 749 NIM 8.32 11.43 11.14 12.28 12.54 12.24 Net fee income 60 90 112 146 183 228 Spread 8.31 11.40 11.07 12.22 12.50 12.19 Trading income 41 53 80 112 145 182 Other income 5 9 8 10 12 14 Costs, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total revenue 235 423 590 809 989 1,174 Cost/income 52.5 50.0 45.3 43.0 44.0 44.0 Staff costs (60) (107) (141) (186) (227) (270) Cost/avge assets 6.74 7.61 6.58 6.71 7.04 7.07 Other costs (63) (104) (126) (162) (208) (246) Effective tax rate 31.4 28.8 28.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 Total costs (123) (211) (267) (348) (435) (516) Operating profit 111 211 323 461 554 657 Profitability ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Provisioning charge (6) (25) (55) (25) (31) (37) RoAE 29.5 36.9 37.5 49.4 49.3 48.6 Other pre-tax items 0 0 1 1 1 1 RoAA 4.0 4.8 4.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 Pre-tax profit 106 186 268 436 524 622 Tax (33) (54) (77) (131) (157) (186) Other P&L ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenue 54.8 63.9 66.1 66.9 65.6 63.8 Other post-tax gains/losses 1 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/revenue 25.4 21.4 19.0 18.0 18.5 19.5 Net profit 73 133 191 305 367 435 Trading income/revenue 17.6 12.5 13.5 13.8 14.7 15.5 Dividend on common shares (1) (1) (1) (2) (2) (3) Fees/staff costs 99.1 84.1 79.4 78.4 80.2 84.6 Dividend on pref shares na na na na na na Fees/total costs 48.4 42.7 41.9 42.0 41.9 44.2

Payout ratio 75.3 57.2 66.1 62.5 62.5 62.5 Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans 65.9 68.5 52.5 25.0 25.0 20.0 Employees 714 841 890 890 1,430 1,465 Interest-earning assets 38.2 63.5 38.4 17.1 17.9 18.5 Branches 44 52 52 53 78 79 Deposits 44.1 53.2 31.7 23.6 20.0 20.0 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 44.1 57.9 35.9 20.4 17.6 17.8 ATMs 92 109 121 124 165 194 Assets 40.2 60.8 36.9 20.8 18.0 18.2 Fee income 39.2 51.7 24.0 30.2 25.1 25.1 Revenue 30.2 80.2 39.5 37.1 22.3 18.7 Costs 47.0 71.7 26.3 30.2 25.2 18.7 Operating profit 15.6 89.6 52.7 42.8 20.2 18.7 Net profit 22.1 80.6 43.8 60.2 20.0 18.7 EPS 20.4 61.1 28.3 60.2 20.0 18.7 Per share data, GHc 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No. common shares, mn 230 262 293 293 293 293 EPS 0.31 0.51 0.65 1.04 1.25 1.48 DPS 0.24 0.29 0.43 0.65 0.78 0.93 BVPS 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Ecobank Ghana financial summary, GHS

14


Ghanaian banks

Figure 17: Ecobank Ghana financial summary, $mn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 39.9 40.7 45.3 47.1 50.0 50.8

Interbank 219 444 397 287 230 253 Deposits/liabilities 75.4 71.9 69.2 70.8 72.0 73.1 Securities 357 365 414 344 349 419 Loans/deposits 52.8 56.7 65.5 66.6 69.4 69.6 Net loans 518 735 894 810 858 1,031 Equity/assets 12.3 13.3 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 Gross loans 527 766 933 841 890 1,068 Interest-earning assets 1,094 1,544 1,705 1,440 1,437 1,704 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 1,300 1,804 1,972 1,719 1,717 2,028 Tier 1 8.5 11.0 10.3 13.2 13.1 12.9

Tier 2 5.0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.8

Liabilities

Total 13.6 14.8 13.7 15.9 15.3 14.6 Interbank 66 145 218 157 133 133 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 981 1,297 1,364 1,216 1,235 1,482 NPLs, $mn 26 51 57 42 40 43 Interest-bearing liabilities 1,109 1,512 1,640 1,424 1,417 1,669 NPL reserves, $mn 9 31 39 32 32 36 Total liabilities 1,300 1,804 1,972 1,719 1,717 2,028 NPLs/gross loans, % 4.94 6.70 6.10 5.00 4.50 4.00 Shareholders equity 160 240 236 205 208 250 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.33 0.61 0.69 0.75 0.80 0.85

Credit charge, % 0.89 2.18 3.01 1.01 0.99 0.96


Interest income 110 191 227 228 222 258 Asset margin 11.03 14.95 13.55 14.71 15.20 14.93 Interest expense (27) (45) (40) (38) (39) (47) Liability margin 2.72 3.54 2.48 2.49 2.70 2.74 Net interest income 83 146 186 190 183 212 NIM 8.32 11.43 11.14 12.28 12.54 12.24 Net fee income 38 49 54 51 52 65 Spread 8.31 11.40 11.07 12.22 12.50 12.19 Trading income 27 29 38 39 41 51 Other income 3 5 4 4 3 4 Costs, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total revenue 151 228 282 285 279 332 Cost/income 52.5 50.0 45.3 43.0 44.0 44.0 Staff costs (39) (58) (67) (65) (64) (76) Cost/avge assets 6.74 7.61 6.58 6.71 7.04 7.07 Other costs (41) (56) (60) (57) (59) (70) Effective tax rate 31.4 28.8 28.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 Total costs (79) (114) (128) (122) (123) (146) Operating profit 72 114 154 162 156 186 Profitability ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Provisioning charge (4) (14) (26) (9) (9) (10) RoAE 29.5 36.9 37.5 49.4 49.3 48.6 Other pre-tax items 0 0 0 0 0 0 RoAA 4.0 4.8 4.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 Pre-tax profit 68 101 128 154 148 176 Tax (21) (29) (37) (46) (44) (53) Other P&L ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Int inc/revenue 54.8 63.9 66.1 66.9 65.6 63.8 Other post-tax gains/losses 1 0 0 0 0 0 Fees/revenue 25.4 21.4 19.0 18.0 18.5 19.5 Net profit 47 72 91 108 104 123 Trading income/revenue 17.6 12.5 13.5 13.8 14.7 15.5 Dividend on common shares (0) (0) (1) (1) (1) (1) Fees/staff costs 99.1 84.1 79.4 78.4 80.2 84.6 Dividend on pref shares na na na na na na Fees/total costs 48.4 42.7 41.9 42.0 41.9 44.2

Payout ratio 75.3 57.2 66.1 62.5 62.5 62.5 Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans 50.7 45.5 21.8 (9.8) 5.8 20.0 Employees 714 841 890 890 1,430 1,465 Interest-earning assets 25.6 41.1 10.5 (15.6) (0.2) 18.5 Branches 44 52 52 53 78 79 Deposits 30.9 32.3 5.2 (10.8) 1.5 20.0 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 31.0 36.3 8.5 (13.2) (0.5) 17.8 ATMs 92 109 121 124 165 194 Assets 27.3 38.8 9.3 (12.9) (0.1) 18.2 Fee income 28.4 27.1 9.7 (4.2) 0.4 25.1 Revenue 20.1 51.0 23.5 0.9 (1.9) 18.7 Costs 35.6 43.9 11.8 (4.2) 0.4 18.7 Operating profit 6.6 58.9 35.2 5.1 (3.6) 18.7 Net profit 12.6 51.3 27.3 17.9 (3.7) 18.7 EPS 11.1 34.9 13.6 17.9 (3.7) 18.7 Per share data, $ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No common shares, mn 230 262 293 293 293 293 EPS 0.20 0.27 0.31 0.37 0.35 0.42 DPS 0.15 0.16 0.21 0.23 0.22 0.26 BVPS 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

Ecobank Ghana financial summary, $

15


Ghanaian banks

Figure 18: CAL Bank financial summary, GHSmn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 50.9 64.3 62.7 60.1 59.4 60.6

Interbank 135 35 121 133 146 161 Deposits/liabilities 72.5 60.8 51.1 50.4 52.1 54.3 Securities 156 241 278 376 507 685 Loans/deposits 70.1 105.8 122.7 119.4 114.2 111.5 Net loans 412 747 980 1,166 1,446 1,876 Equity/assets 10.9 17.8 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.5 Gross loans 438 781 1,019 1,223 1,529 1,988 Interest-earning assets 702 1,023 1,379 1,674 2,099 2,721 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 809 1,163 1,564 1,939 2,432 3,095 Tier 1 9.9 18.8 18.1 20.9 22.1 23.1

Tier 2 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8

Liabilities

Total 11.6 20.0 19.4 22.1 23.1 23.9 Interbank 25 88 35 48 48 48 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 587 707 799 977 1,266 1,682 NPLs, GHcmn 42 40 81 104 122 149 Interest-bearing liabilities 704 925 1,217 1,503 1,889 2,419 NPL reserves, GHcmn 26 34 39 57 83 112 Total liabilities 809 1,163 1,564 1,939 2,432 3,095 NPLs/gross loans, % 9.70 5.10 7.90 8.50 8.00 7.50 Shareholders equity 88 207 287 363 456 571 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.62 0.85 0.48 0.55 0.68 0.75

Credit charge, % 3.23 2.86 1.95 2.04 2.03 1.53



Payout ratio 35.9 27.0 31.1 33.3 33.3 33.3 Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans 61.4 78.4 30.5 20.0 25.0 30.0 Employees 291 300 301 470 516 566 Interest-earning assets 61.5 45.7 34.8 21.4 25.4 29.6 Branches 18 18 18 18 18 19 Deposits 107.7 20.4 13.1 22.2 29.7 32.8 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 73.6 31.4 31.5 23.6 25.6 28.1 ATMs 28 39 48 50 52 83 Assets 58.7 43.7 34.5 24.0 25.4 27.2 Fee income 57.7 76.3 15.3 14.5 26.1 27.0 Revenue 31.8 87.7 64.6 29.3 21.5 22.1 Costs 27.6 35.2 51.6 30.9 20.8 25.7 Operating profit 36.5 142.2 72.1 28.6 21.9 20.2 Net profit 89.2 188.5 81.1 22.5 21.8 23.7 EPS 77.0 38.4 81.1 22.5 21.8 23.7 Per share data, GHc 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No. common shares, mn 247 398 548 548 548 548 EPS 0.07 0.09 0.17 0.21 0.25 0.31 DPS 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 BVPS 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

CAL Bank financial summary, GHS

16


Ghanaian banks

Figure 19: CAL Bank financial summary, $mn (unless otherwise stated) Balance sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Balance sheet ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Assets

Loans/assets 50.9 64.3 62.7 60.1 59.4 60.6

Interbank 82 18 51 40 37 41 Deposits/liabilities 72.5 60.8 51.1 50.4 52.1 54.3 Securities 95 127 117 114 130 176 Loans/deposits 70.1 105.8 122.7 119.4 114.2 111.5 Net loans 251 393 412 353 371 481 Equity/assets 10.9 17.8 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.5 Gross loans 267 411 428 371 392 510 Interest-earning assets 428 539 580 507 538 698 Capital ratios, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Total assets 494 612 657 588 624 794 Tier 1 9.9 18.8 18.1 20.9 22.1 23.1

Tier 2 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8

Liabilities

Total 11.6 20.0 19.4 22.1 23.1 23.9 Interbank 15 46 15 15 12 12 Securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asset quality 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Deposits 358 372 336 296 325 431 NPLs, $mn 26 21 34 32 31 38 Interest-bearing liabilities 429 487 511 456 484 620 NPL reserves, $mn 16 18 16 17 21 29 Total liabilities 494 612 657 588 624 794 NPLs/gross loans, % 9.70 5.10 7.90 8.50 8.00 7.50 Shareholders equity 54 109 121 110 117 147 Reserves/NPLs, x 0.62 0.85 0.48 0.55 0.68 0.75

Credit charge, % 3.23 2.86 1.95 2.04 2.03 1.53



Payout ratio 35.9 27.0 31.1 33.3 33.3 33.3 Key YoY growth rates, % 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No of: 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Loans 46.7 54.0 4.2 (13.5) 5.8 30.0 Employees 291 300 301 470 516 566 Interest-earning assets 46.7 25.8 7.6 (12.5) 6.1 29.6 Branches 18 18 18 18 18 19 Deposits 88.7 4.0 (9.7) (11.9) 9.7 32.8 Mini/sub branches na na na na na na Interest-bearing liabilities 57.8 13.4 5.0 (10.9) 6.3 28.1 ATMs 28 39 48 50 52 83 Assets 44.2 24.0 7.4 (10.6) 6.1 27.2 Fee income 45.5 47.7 2.0 (15.7) 1.1 27.0 Revenue 21.6 57.3 45.7 (4.8) (2.5) 22.1 Costs 17.7 13.3 34.2 (3.7) (3.1) 25.7 Operating profit 25.9 102.9 52.3 (5.4) (2.2) 20.2 Net profit 74.5 141.7 60.3 (9.9) (2.3) 23.7 EPS 63.3 15.9 60.3 (9.9) (2.3) 23.7 Per share data, $ 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E No common shares, mn 247 398 548 548 548 548 EPS 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.09 DPS 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 BVPS 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Source: Company data, Renaissance Capital estimates

CAL Bank financial summary, $

17


Ghanaian banks

Analysts certification

This research report has been prepared by the research analyst(s), whose name(s) appear(s) on the front page of this document, to provide background information about the issuer or issuers (collectively, the Issuer) and the securities and markets that are the subject matter of this report. Each research analyst hereby certifies that with respect to the Issuer and such securities and markets, this document has been produced independently of the Issuer and all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his or her personal views about the Issuer and any and all of such securities and markets. Each research analyst and/or persons connected with any research analyst may have interacted with sales and trading personnel, or similar, for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. If the date of this report is not current, the views and contents may not reflect the research analysts current thinking.

Each research analyst also certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views in this research report. Research analysts compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited and any of its affiliates (Renaissance Capital). Like all of Renaissance Capitals employees, research analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Renaissance Capital profitability, which includes revenues from other business units within Renaissance Capital.

Important issuer disclosures

Important issuer disclosures outline currently known conflicts of interest that may unknowingly bias or affect the objectivity of the analyst(s) with respect to an issuer that is the subject matter of this report. Disclosure(s) apply to Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited or any of its direct or indirect subsidiaries or affiliates (which are individually or collectively referred to as Renaissance Capital) with respect to any issuer or the issuers securities.

A complete set of disclosure statements associated with the issuers discussed in the Report is available using the Stock Finder or Bond Finder for individual issuers on the Renaissance Capital Research Portal at: http://research.rencap.com/eng/default.asp

Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd (GCB) RIC: GCB.GH Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital. Ecobank Ghana Ltd RIC: EBG.GH Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital. CAL Bank Ltd RIC: CAL.GH Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital.

Investment ratings

Investment ratings may be determined by the following standard ranges: Buy (expected total return of 15% or more); Hold (expected total return of 0-15%); and Sell (expected negative total return). Standard ranges do not always apply to emerging markets securities and ratings may be assigned on the basis of the research analysts knowledge of the securities.

Investment ratings are a function of the research analysts expectation of total return on equity (forecast price appreciation and dividend yield within the next 12 months, unless stated otherwise in the report). Investment ratings are determined at the time of initiation of coverage of an issuer of equity securities or a change in target price of any of the issuers equity securities. At other times, the expected total returns may fall outside of the range used at the time of setting a rating because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations will be permitted but will be subject to review by Renaissance Capitals Research Management.

Where the relevant issuer has a significant material event with further information pending or to be announced, it may be necessary to temporarily place the investment rating Under Review. This does not revise the previously published rating, but indicates that the analyst is actively reviewing the investment rating or waiting for sufficient information to re-evaluate the analysts expectation of total return on equity.

Where coverage of the relevant issuer is due to be maintained by a new analyst, on a temporary basis the relevant issuer will be rated as Coverage in Transition. Previously published investment ratings should not be relied upon as they may not reflect the new analysts current expectations of total return. While rated as Coverage in Transition, Renaissance Capital may not always be able to keep you informed of events or provide background information relating to the issuer.

If issuing of research is restricted due to legal, regulatory or contractual obligations publishing investment ratings will be Restricted. Previously published investment ratings should not be relied upon as they may no longer reflect the analysts current expectations of total return. While restricted, the analyst may not always be able to keep you informed of events or provide background information relating to the issuer.

Where Renaissance Capital has neither reviewed nor revised its investment ratings on the relevant issuer for a period of 180 calendar days, coverage shall be discontinued.

Where Renaissance Capital has not provided coverage of an issuer for a period of 365 calendar days, coverage shall be discontinued.

Where Renaissance Capital has not expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage and/or an expectation of total return, to keep you informed, analysts may prepare reports covering significant events or background information without an investment rating (Not Covered).

Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your personal investment objectives and should be made only after evaluating the securitys expected performance and risk.

Renaissance Capital reserves the right to update or amend its investment ratings in any way and at any time it determines.

Disclosures appendix

18


Ghanaian banks

Renaissance Capital equity research distribution ratings

Investment Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships* Renaissance Capital Research Renaissance Capital Research Buy 129 44% Buy 5 71% Hold 108 36% Hold 1 14% Sell 52 18% Sell 1 14% Under Review 6 2% Under Review 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Cov. in Trans. 1 0% Cov. in Trans. 0 0% 296 7

*Companies from which RenCap has received compensation within the past 12 months. NR Not Rated UR Under Review

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

0%20%40%60%80%100%

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.4

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-

13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-

14

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Feb-

14

Mar-1

4

Mar-1

4

Apr-1

4

Apr-1

4

May-1

4

May-1

4

Jun-

14

CAL Bank share price, target price and rating history

Buy Hold Sell Not covered Cov. in Trans. Under Review Restricted Target Price Last Price

0%20%40%60%80%100%

02468

10

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-

13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-

14

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Feb-

14

Mar-1

4

Mar-1

4

Apr-1

4

Apr-1

4

May-1

4

May-1

4

Jun-

14

Ecobank Ghana share price, target price and rating history


0%20%40%60%80%100%

0123456

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-

13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Sep-

13

Oct-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-

14

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Feb-

14

Mar-1

4

Mar-1

4

Apr-1

4

Apr-1

4

May-1

4

May-1

4

Jun-

14

Ghana Commercial bank share price, target price and rating history


19

Renaissance Capital research team

Head of Research David Nangle +44 (203) 379-7954 [email protected] Head of Russian Research Vladimir Sklyar +7 (495) 258-7770 x4624 [email protected] Head of African Research Nothando Ndebele +27 (11) 750-1472 [email protected] Head of Turkish Research Ilgin Erdogan +90 (212) 362-3530 [email protected] Head of Turkish Product Michael Harris +44 (203) 379-7982 [email protected]

Name Telephone number Coverage Name Telephone number Coverage Macro Oil and gas Charles Robertson +44 (203) 379-7835 Global Ildar Davletshin +7 (495) 725-5244 Russia/CIS Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 Sub-Saharan Africa Thabi Leoka +27 (11) 750-1483 South Africa Metals and mining Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4506 Russia/CIS Jim Taylor +44 (203) 379-7736 Africa Johann Pretorius +27 (11) 750-1450 South Africa Equity Strategy Steven Friedman +27 (11) 750-1481 South Africa Daniel Salter +44 (203) 379-7824 Global Michael Harris +44 (203) 379-7982 Turkey Diversified/Industrials Charles Robertson +44 (203) 379-7835 Global Ilgin Erdogan +90 (212) 362-3528 Turkey Gennadiy Babenko +7 (495) 258-7770 x4149 Russia Roy Mutooni +27 (11) 750-1469 x 1469 South Africa Oyindamola Olanrewaju +234 (1) 448-5300 x5377 Sub-Saharan Africa Financials David Nangle +44 (203) 379-7954 EMEA Telecoms/Transportation Can Demir +90 (212) 362-3511 Turkey, Greece Alexander Kazbegi +7 (495) 258-7902 Global Armen Gasparyan +7 (495) 783-5673 Russia, CEE Alexandra Serova +7 (495) 258-7770 x4073 Russia/CIS Omair Ansari +44 (203) 379-7925 CEE Johan Snyman +27 (11) 750-1432 Africa Ilan Stermer +27 (11) 750-1482 South Africa Nothando Ndebele +27 (11) 750-1472 Sub-Saharan Africa Media/Technology/Real estate Adesoji Solanke +234 (1) 448-5300 x5384 Sub-Saharan Africa David Ferguson +7 (495) 641-4189 Russia/CIS, Africa Simonika Govender +27 (11) 750-1468 South Africa/Sub-Saharan Africa Johan Snyman +27 (11) 750-1432 Africa Nick Robinson +7 (495) 258-7770 x4811 Russia/CIS Consumer/Retail/Agriculture Ahmed Motara +27 (11) 750-1458 South Africa David Ferguson +7 (495) 641-4189 Russia/CIS, Africa Nick Robinson +7 (495) 258-7770 x4811 Russia/CIS Luxury goods and tobacco/Beverages Robyn Collins +27 (11) 750-1480 South Africa Rey Wium +27 (11) 750-1478 Global/South Africa Mete Ozbek +90 (212) 362-3505 Turkey Zaheer Joosub +27 (11) 750-1427 South Africa Utilities Nazmiya Ebrahim +27 (11) 750-1431 South Africa Vladimir Sklyar +7 (495) 258-7770 x4624 Russia/CIS

Renaissance Capital research is available via the following platforms: Renaissance research portal: research.rencap.com Bloomberg: RENA Capital IQ: www.capitaliq.com

Thomson Reuters: thomsonreuters.com/financial Factset: www.factset.com

Renaissance Capital Moscow T + 7 (495) 258 7777

Renaissance Capital Ltd. London T + 44 (203) 379 7777

Renaissance Capital Johannesburg T +27 (11) 750 1400

Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Ltd. Nicosia T + 357 (22) 505 800

Renaissance Securities (Nigeria) Ltd. Lagos T +234 (1) 448 5300

Renaissance Capital Nairobi T +254 (20) 368 2000

Renaissance Capital Istanbul T +90 (212) 362 3500

2014 Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, an indirect subsidiary of Renaissance Financial Holdings Limited ("Renaissance Capital"), which together with other subsidiaries operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital, for contact details see Bloomberg page RENA, or contact the relevant office. All rights reserved. This document and/or information has been prepared by and, except as otherwise specified herein, is communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (License No: KEPEY 053/04). The RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator is a model that seeks to forecast GDP growth and was developed by and is the exclusive property of Renaissance Capital and the New Economic School (e-mail: [email protected]). This document is for information purposes only. The information presented herein does not comprise a prospectus of securities for the purposes of EU Directive 2003/71/EC or Federal Law No. 39-FZ of 22 April 1994 (as amended) of the Russian Federation "On the Securities Market". Any decision to purchase securities in any proposed offering should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the final prospectus published in relation to such offering. This document does not form a fiduciary relationship or constitute advice and is not and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, or an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity, and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated price. This document is not an advertisement of securities. Opinions expressed herein may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Renaissance Capital as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, and neither Renaissance Capital nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein or in any other medium. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities or the markets or developments mentioned herein are not intended to be complete. This document and/or information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment as the information has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The application of taxation laws depends on an investors individual circumstances and, accordingly, each investor should seek independent professional advice on taxation implications before making any investment decision. The information and opinions herein have been compiled or arrived at based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified, is provided on an as is basis and no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of such information and opinions, except with respect to information concerning Renaissance Capital, its subsidiaries and affiliates. All statements of opinion and all projections, forecasts, or statements relating to expectations regarding future events or the possible future performance of investments represent Renaissance Capitals own assessment and interpretation of information available to them currently. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Options, derivative products and futures are not suitable for all investors and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. Some investments may not be readily realisable since the market in the securities is illiquid or there is no secondary market for the investors interest and therefore valuing the investment and identifying the risk to which the investor is exposed may be difficult to quantify. Investments in illiquid securities involve a high degree of risk and are suitable only for sophisticated investors who can tolerate such risk and do not require an investment easily and quickly converted into cash. Foreign-currency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or the price of, or income derived from, the investment. Other risk factors affecting the price, value or income of an investment include but are not necessarily limited to political risks, economic risks, credit risks, and market risks. Investing in emerging markets such as Russia, other CIS, African or Asian countries and emerging markets securities involves a high degree of risk and investors should perform their own due diligence before investing. Excluding significant beneficial ownership of securities where Renaissance Capital has expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage in relation to an issuer or an issuers securities, Renaissance Capital and its affiliates, their directors, representatives, employees (excluding the US broker-dealer unless specifically disclosed), or clients may have or have had interests in the securities of issuers described in the Investment Research or long or short positions in any of the securities mentioned in the Investment Research or other related financial instruments at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case as principals or as agents. Where Renaissance Capital has not expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage in relation to an issuer or an issuers securities, Renaissance Capital and its affiliates (excluding the US broker-dealer unless specifically disclosed) may act or have acted as market maker in the securities or other financial instruments described in the Investment Research, or in securities underlying or related to such securities. Employees of Renaissance Capital or its affiliates may serve or have served as officers or directors of the relevant companies. Renaissance Capital and its affiliates may have or have had a relationship with or provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets, advisory, investment management, and/or other financial services to the relevant companies, and have established and maintain information barriers, such as Chinese Walls, to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of Renaissance Capital, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of the Firm.

The information herein is not intended for distribution to the public and may not be reproduced, redistributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the written permission of Renaissance Capital, and neither Renaissance Capital nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This information may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. Neither Renaissance Capital and its affiliates, nor their directors, representatives, or employees accept any liability for any direct or consequential loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the information herein Bermuda: Neither the Bermuda Monetary Authority nor the Registrar of Companies of Bermuda has approved the contents of this document and any statement to the contrary, express or otherwise, would constitute a material misstatement and an offence. EEA States: Distributed by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission, or Renaissance Capital Limited, member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in relation to designated investment business (as detailed in the FCA rules). Cyprus: Except as otherwise specified herein the information herein is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients of Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited. The Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission Investor Compensation Fund is available where Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited is unable to meet its liabilities to its retail clients, as specified in the Customer Documents Pack. United Kingdom: Approved and distributed by Renaissance Capital Limited only to persons who are eligible counterparties or professional clients (as detailed in the FCA Rules). The information herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients; neither the FCAs protection rules nor compensation scheme may be applied. Kenya: Distributed by Renaissance Capital (Kenya) Limited, regulated by the Capital Markets Authority. Nigeria: Distributed by RenCap Securities (Nigeria) Limited, authorised dealing member of The Nigerian Stock Exchange, or Renaissance Securities (Nigeria) Limited, entities regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Russia: Distributed by Renaissance Capital Limited, Renaissance Broker Limited, or Renaissance Online Limited, entities regulated by the Bank of Russia. South Africa: Distributed by Rencap Securities (Proprietary) Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and member of the JSE Limited. The information contained herein is intended for Institutional investors only. Turkey: Distributed by Renaissance Capital Menkul Degerler A.S. The Disclaimer Displayed In Accordance With Communiqu Serial: V, No: 55 on Principles Regarding Investment Advisory Activity and The Authorised Institutions Undertaking This Activity of the Capital Markets Board: Investment information, comments and recommendations stated here, are not within the scope of investment advisory activity. Investment advisory service is provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory concluded between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely to this information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit your expectations. United States: Distributed in the United States by RenCap Securities, Inc., member of FINRA and SIPC, or by a non-US subsidiary or affiliate of Renaissance Financial Holdings Limited that is not registered as a US broker-dealer (a "non-US affiliate"), to major US institutional investors only. RenCap Securities, Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of a research report prepared by another non-US affiliate when distributed to US persons by RenCap Securities, Inc. Although it has accepted responsibility for the content of this research report when distributed to US investors, RenCap Securities, Inc. did not contribute to the preparation of this report and the analysts authoring this are not employed by, and are not associated persons of, RenCap Securities, Inc. Among other things, this means that the entity issuing this report and the analysts authoring this report are not subject to all the disclosures and other US regulatory requirements to which RenCap Securities, Inc. and its employees and associated persons are subject. Any US person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact RenCap Securities, Inc., not its non-US affiliate. RenCap Securities, Inc. is a subsidiary of Renaissance Financial Holdings Limited and forms a part of a group of companies operating outside of the United States as "Renaissance Capital." Contact: RenCap Securities, Inc., 780 Third Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, New York 10017, Telephone: +1 (212) 824-1099. Other distribution: The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restriction. Additional information (including information about the RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator) and supporting documentation is available upon request. Renaissance Capital equity research disclosures (SA stocks)

Primer on CALs risk managementValuation and rating changesGCB financial summary, GHSGCB financial summary, $Ecobank Ghana financial summary, GHSEcobank Ghana financial summary, $CAL Bank financial summary, GHSCAL Bank financial summary, $Disclosures appendixAnalysts certificationImportant issuer disclosuresInvestment ratingsRenaissance Capital equity research distribution ratings