GFPT - GFPT - CyberQuoteresearch.cyberquote.com.hk/page/htm/kc/share... · from GFN though the results included a tax reversal. We believe 1QCY12 is likely to be lower than 4QCY11

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GFPT - GFPT 4QCY11 results below forecasts Bloomberg │ Reuters GFPT.TH │GFPT9

Thailand Equities Research24 February 2012

Report type: Company Results

Company Overview GFPT is a fully integrated livestock and aquaculture company. It is involved in breeding, feed production and processed meat for domestic sales and exports.

GFPT posted a net profit of Bt219mn in 4QCY11. The quarterly profit fell slightly short of our forecast on higher-than-expected expenses and bigger-than-expected loss from GFN though the results included a tax reversal.

We believe 1QCY12 is likely to be lower than 4QCY11 due to shrinking feed sales volumes and softening meat prices.

We rate GFPT shares a ‘NEUTRAL’ with a downwardly revised target price of Bt10.20/share.

What is the news? GFPT posted weak 4QCY11 results due chiefly to lower meat prices, huge expenses and bigger-than-expected loss from GFN. How do we view this? Earnings are likely to remain under pressure from low selling prices and weak exports over the next two quarters. Investment Actions? Softening meat prices would remain a drag on overall earnings performance. We rate GFPT shares a ‘NEUTRAL’ with a downwardly revised target price of Bt10.20/share.

GFPT

Rating 3.00 Neutral

- Previous Rating 3.00 Neutral

Target Price (Bt) 10.2

- Previous Target Price (Bt) 12.1

Closing Price (Bt) 10.20

Expected Capital Gains (%) 0.00

Expected Dividend Yield (%) 3.33

Expected Total Return (%) 3.33

Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data) 0.48

Market Cap. (USD mn) 422

Enterprise Value (USD mn) 507

Market Cap. (Bt mn) 12,789

Enterprise Value (Bt mn) 15,448

3M Average Daily T/O (mn) 2.6

52 week range 7.95 - 12.1

Closing Price in 52 week range

Major Shareholders (%)

17.8

17.6

14.4

CG Report - 2011

Key Financial SummaryFYE 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F

Revenue (Btmn) 12,472 14,214 15,131 15,979

Net Profit, adj. (Btmn) 1,166 1,203 1,282 1,549

EPS, adj. (Bt) 0.93 0.96 1.02 1.24

P/E (X),adj. 11.0 10.6 10.0 8.3

BVPS (Bt) 4.29 4.77 5.47 6.36

P/B (X) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6

DPS (Bt) 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.40

Div. Yield (%) 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.9

Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.

*All multiples & yields based on current market price

Valuation Method

P/E'12 (10x)

1. Mr. Sujin Sirimongkolkasem

2. Mr. Prasit Sirimongkolkasem

3. Mr. Wirat Sirimongkolkasem

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

1

5

9

13

17

21

25

29

Volume, mn GFPT TB EQUITY SETI rebased

0% 50% 100%

Analyst Naree Apisawaittakan#17971 Tel. 662-2-635-1700 Ext. 484 Email : [email protected]

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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4QCY11 net profit of Bt219mn, down 2% y-y and 41% q-q GFPT posted a 4QCY11 net profit of Bt219mn, down 2% y-y and 41% q-q. The quarterly profit fell slightly short of our forecast on (i) higher-than-expected expenses due to inventory write-down charge as a result of falling product prices, flood-related expenses and employee bonuses and (ii) bigger-than-expected loss from GFN. Even though losses at GFN narrowed, the loss figures however came in above our estimate due to inventory write-down charge. The earnings decline was largely blamed on a q-q drop in domestic meat prices and a fall in meat sales volumes especially in aquaculture segment due to low seasonality. For the period, sales came in at Bt3,655mn, up 10% y-y but down 8% q-q. Margins shrank to a mere 12.3% from 16.9% in 3QCY11 due chiefly to lower selling prices and falling aquaculture feed sales. Expenses shot up 17% q-q. In this period, the results also included a Bt22mn tax reversal. Losses from affiliates narrowed q-q to Bt24mn. Outlook still weak in 1QCY12 on softening meat prices Due to ample poultry supply in the industry with purchasing power not yet recovered from the recent flooding crisis, domestic meat prices are likely to keep falling from 4QCY11. Management expects meat prices to recover from 2QCY11. Export prices are also likely to soften in the same way as domestic prices as huge supply would increase pricing pressure. The outlook remains gloomy for GFPT over the next two quarters. Low meat prices would also cause the turnaround of GFN to be slower than previously thought. On this basis, we trim our CY12 net profit outlook for GFPT to Bt1,282mn but the new profit target still represents a growth of 7% y-y. Under the new estimate, we slash our CY12 sales forecast for GFPT to Bt15,131mn to reflect a 5-7% cut in average selling price assumptions and we revise down our earnings estimate for GFN to a loss of Bt130mn. ‘NEUTRAL’ rating with Bt10.20/share target price The prospects remain gloomy for GFPT over the next two quarters but we believe much of the bad news appears to have already been baked into the share price. We maintain a ‘NEUTRAL’ rating on GFPT with a downwardly revised target price of Bt10.20/share.

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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FYE Dec FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13FValuation RatiosP/E (X), adj. 12.0 11.0 10.6 10.0 8.3P/B (X) 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6EV/EBITDA (X), adj. 10.6 9.5 8.4 8.2 7.5Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.9 Per share data (Bt)EPS, reported 0.85 0.93 0.96 1.02 1.24EPS, adj. 0.85 0.93 0.96 1.02 1.24DPS 0.25 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.40BVPS 3.61 4.29 4.77 5.47 6.36

Growth & Margins (%)GrowthRevenue 4.6 8.4 14.0 6.4 5.6EBITDA 4.2 11.7 13.7 1.7 10.2EBIT 2.3 10.4 4.6 8.4 18.2Net Income, adj. -0.8 9.2 3.2 6.5 20.9MarginsEBITDA margin 12.6 13.0 13.0 12.4 13.0EBIT margin 10.9 11.1 10.2 10.3 11.6Net Profit Margin 9.4 9.5 8.6 8.6 9.8

Key RatiosROE (%) 21.8 20.7 18.9 17.4 19.6 ROA (%) 12.3 12.1 11.6 11.6 13.6

Net Debt-Cash 2,536 2,827 2,813 2,499 2,035Net Gearing(X) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

Income Statement (Bt mn)Revenue 11,507 12,472 14,214 15,131 15,979EBITDA 1,455 1,625 1,848 1,879 2,071Depreciation & Amortisation 373 422 455 487 521EBIT 1,250 1,380 1,444 1,565 1,849Net Finance (Expense)/Income -118 -135 -144 -150 -140Other items 149 220 218 229 241Associates & JVs 56 -2 -111 4 123

Profit Before Tax 1,132 1,245 1,299 1,414 1,709Taxation 48 58 77 113 137

Profit After Tax 1,084 1,187 1,223 1,301 1,573Non-controlling Interest -16 -21 -19 -20 -24

Net Income, reported 1,068 1,166 1,203 1,282 1,549Net Income, adj. 1,068 1,166 1,203 1,282 1,549Source: PSR est.

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FYE Dec FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13FBalance Sheet (Bt mn)Cash 202 182 173 167 206ST InvestmentsAccounts Receivables 605 740 774 871 919Inventories 1,953 2,306 2,816 3,101 3,329Others 38 56 72 86 129

Total current assets 2,797 3,284 3,835 4,225 4,583PPE 3,916 4,604 5,037 5,196 5,472Intangibles 6 8 9 10Associates & JVs 579 746 630 633 661InvestmentsOthers 710 544 510 570 634

Total non-current assets 5,341 5,932 6,233 6,466 6,847Total Assets 8,138 9,216 10,068 10,690 11,431Short term loans 1,263 596 746 605 519Accounts Payables 560 455 451 458 444Others 205 211 233 256 282Total current liabilities 2,123 1,262 1,430 1,320 1,245Long term loans 1,475 2,413 2,240 2,061 1,721Others 16 165 160 169 177

Total liabilities 3,614 3,839 4,084 3,828 3,434Non-controlling interest 46 51 65 78 86

Shareholder Equity 4,478 5,326 5,919 6,784 7,910

Cashflow Statements (Bt mn)CFOPBT 1,132 1,245 1,299 1,414 1,709Adjustments 357 422 455 489 525Cash from ops before WC changes 1,895 2,158 2,407 2,445 2,689WC changes 264 -588 -765 -519 -429Cash generated from ops 2,279 1,705 1,782 2,081 2,406Taxes paid, net -31 -65 -97 -93 -117Interest paid 118 134 136 150 140

Cashflow from ops 2,130 1,506 1,549 1,837 2,149CFICAPEX, net -648 -880 -702 -800 -600Investments in subs & associates -382 -191 0 -3 -28Others -360 -376 -375 -454 -515Cashflow from investments -1,336 -1,254 -1,018 -936 -1,073CFFLoans, net of repayments -315 176 -26 -340 -406Dividends to shareholders & capital reduction -313 -313 -376 -414 -489Cashflow from financing -747 -273 -540 -907 -1,038Net change in cash 47 -21 -9 -6 38CCE, end 202 182 173 167 206Source: PSR est.

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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Total Returns Recommendation Rating> +20% Buy 1+5% to +20% Accumulate/Trading Buy 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce/Trading Sell 4>-20% Sell 5

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation

Ratings History

Phillip Group Rating System

Remarks

12345

Source: Bloomberg, PSR

6789

10111213141516

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Target PriceMarket Price

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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Research Department Fundamental: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Sector Sasikorn Charoensuwan 9744 66 2 635 1700#480 [email protected] Banking Finance and Securities Rutsada Tweesaengsakulthai 17972 66 2 635 1700#482 [email protected] ICT Energy Health Care Services Danai Tunyaphisitchai 2375 66 2 635 1700#481 [email protected] Construction Materials Property Development Naree Apisawaittakan 17971 66 2 635 1700#484 [email protected] Agro & food Industry Electronics Siam Tiyanont 17970 66 2 635 1700#483 [email protected] Transportation Media and Publishing Preeyanun Tripetchchuporn 17973 66 2 635 1700#488 [email protected] Petrochemicals and Chemicals Commerce Tourism Ornmongkol Tantitanatorn 34100 66 2 635 1700#491 [email protected] Finance and Securities Automotive Construction Materials Strategy: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Teerada Charnyingyong 9501 66 2 635 1700#487 [email protected] Pinkaew Santimetvirul 37928 66 2 635 1700#491 [email protected] Waraporn Trakonthanasoontorn 66 2 635 1700#495 [email protected] Technical: Name Analyst Reg No. Tel Email Sasima Hattakitnikorn 8328 66 2 635 1700#490 [email protected] Kanoksak Vutipan 2423 66 2 635 1700#485 [email protected] Database & Production: Name Tel Email Manunpat Yuenyongwatanakorn 66 2 635 1700#492 [email protected] Sutiporn Oupkaew 66 2 635 1700#489 [email protected] Translation: Name Tel Email Chaiyot Ingkhasorarat 66 2 635 1700#493 [email protected]

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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Bangkok Offices Head Office Srinakarindr Branch Viphavadi Branch

11st Fl., Unit 1102, 14th Fl., Unit 1404 17th Fl., Modernform Tower, 15th Fl., Lao Peng Nguan Tower 1,

and 15th Fl., Vorawat Bldg., 699 Srinakarindr Rd., Suan Luang, 333 Soi Chuaypuang, Viphavadi- 849 Silom Rd. Silom, Suan Luang, Bangkok 10250 Rangsit Rd., Ladyao, Chatuchak, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Tel : 0 2722 8344-53 Bangkok 10900 Tel : 0 2635 1700 , 0 2268 0999 Fax : 0 2722 8343 Tel : 0 2618 8400 Fax : 0 2635 1615 Fax : 0 2618 8344 , 0 2618 8381 Yaowarat Branch Bangkapi Branch Bangkapi 2 Branch

19th Fl., Kanchanadhat Bldg., 8th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi 8th Fl., The Mall Office Tower-Bangkapi 308 Yaowarat Rd., Jakawat, 3522 Lad Prao Rd., Klongchan 3522 Lad Prao Rd., Klongchan Sampantawong, Bangkok 10100 Bangkapi, Bangkok 10240 Bangkapi, Bangkok 10240 Tel : 0 2622 7833 , 0 2226 2777 Tel : 0 2363 3263 Tel : 0 2363 3469 Fax : 0 2622 7844 Fax : 0 2363 3275 Fax : 0 2363 3464 Hua Lumphong Branch Rangsit Branch Sindhorn Branch

4th Fl., Tang Hua Pak Bldg., G Fl., Room#PLZ.G.SHP065A 130-132 Sindhorn Tower 3 Building, 320 Rama 4 Rd., Mahaprutharam, Future Park Rangsit 19 Floor, Wireless Rd., Lumpini, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 94 Paholyothin Rd., Prachathipat, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel : 0 2639 1200 Thunyaburi, Pathumthani 12130 Tel : 0 2650 9717 Fax : 0 2639 1340-1 Tel : 0 2958 5040 Fax : 0 2657 9722 Fax : 0 2567 3311 Provincial Offices Khon Kaen Branch Phisanulok Branch Had Yai Branch

4th Fl., Kow Yoo Hah Bldg., 2nd Fl., Thai Sivarat Bldg., 4th Fl., Southland Rubber Bldg., 359/2 Mittapap Rd., Naimuang, 59/15 Baromtrilokanad Rd., Naimuang 55 Ratyindee Rd., Had Yai, Muang , Khon Kaen 40000 Muang, Phisanulok 65000 Had Yai, Songkla 90110 Tel : 0 4332 5044-8 Tel : 0 5524 3646 Tel : 0 7423 4095-99, 0 7423 0537-8 Fax : 0 4322 5687 Fax : 0 5524 5082 Fax : 0 7422 0908 Khon Kaen-Rim Bueng Branch Had Yai-Petkasem Branch Chumporn Investor Center

3rd Fl., Arokaya Bldg., 3rd Fl., Unit 3D, Redar Group Bldg., 25/45 Krom Luang Chumporn Rd., 52 Rop Bueng Rd., Nai Muang, 607 Petkaseam Rd., Had Yai, Tatapao, Muang, Chumporn 86000 Muang , Khon Kaen 40000 Had Yai, Songkla 90110 Tel : 0 7757 0652-3 Tel : 0 4322 6026 Tel : 0 7422 3044 Fax : 0 7757 0441 Fax : 0 4322 6796 Fax : 0 7422 3620 Suratthani Branch Laemchabang Branch 62/9 Donnok Rd., Talad, 83/112, 114 Moo 9, Tungsukla Muang Suratthani, Suratthani 84000 Sriracha, Chonburi 20110 Tel : 077 206 131 Tel : 0 3849 0669 Fax : 077 206 151 Fax : 0 3849 3125

Results Presentation

Score Range Number of Logo

Less than 50 No logo given

50 - 59

60 - 69

70 - 79

80 - 89

90 - 100

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosured to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Gavernance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phillip Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

GFPT - GFPT Thailand Equities Research 24 February 2012

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HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

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We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

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