Getting to Net Zero - for Everything

Guy DaunceySeattle

November 13, 2015

FOR EVERYTHING –

Electricity, Transport,

Buildings

FIVE KEY THOUGHTS

1. The climate crisis is urgent and real

2. We must

change our future story

from negative to positive,

from worry and fear to

determinationand hope.

3. The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy

as quickly as we possibly can.

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

4. The challenge is huge, but it’s mostly achievable

5. We will need the best policies, taxes, initiatives and regulations to help us get there.

We will also need our very best leaders

Nov 3, 2015

Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

1

1. The climate crisis is urgent and real

Potsdam Institute

The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima

atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.” - James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

Alaska, Summer 2015

Alaska, Summer 2015

Washington State Forest FiresSummer 2015

British Columbia 2015

British Columbia

2015

2015

The last time the world was 3°C warmerthe sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

The Shanghai region facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase

Tianjin (near Beijing) facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase. Population 7 million.

Vancouver, BC, facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase

To what extent do you agree or disagree? “The climate change we are currently seeing is

largely the result of human activity.”

IPSOS/MORI 2014

To what extent do you agree or disagree? “The climate change we are currently seeing is

largely the result of human activity.”

IPSOS/MORI 2014

“The climate change we are currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.”

IPSOS/MORI 2014

“We are heading for an environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly.”

IPSOS/MORI 2014

2

2. We must

change our future story


from fear and worry

to hope and determination.


HOPE

WORRY

or

?

What is our future?

What is our future?

BCSEA 2014 www.bcsea.org

Let’s put fossil fuels in their historical context

For more than 300,000 years, we have harvested the Sun’s energy using firewood

For the past 300 years, we have been harvesting it from ancient fossil fuels

It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the whole modern world.

It is fossil fuels that have made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

We should not vilify fossil fuels.We should thank them, and then say

“It’s time to move on.”

The Age of Fossil Fuels has beenTHE LAUNCH RAMP

for the Solar Age

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

A billion yearsAnd with every passing year,

solar technologies will improve and fall in price.

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every yearCO2 reduction

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every yearrenewable energy

increase

3

3. The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy


2015

2°C

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

ZeroBy 2040

The2040

Imperative

Austin Texas:

“As soon as we can, but no

later than 2050.”

Starting today

Starting 2020

INDC = Intended Nationally

Determined Contribution

4


4. The challenge is mostly achievable

THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES

1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy



2. 100% of our transportation from renewables




3. 100% of our building heat from renewables





4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables






5. To end deforestation across the world






5. To end deforestation across the world

6. To eat much less red meat


1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy2. 100% of our transportation from renewables3. 100% of our building heat from renewables

4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables5. To end deforestation across the world6. To store carbon in forests and farms

7. To eat much less red meat8. For the whole planet

THE EIGHT BIG CHALLENGES

1977: $771997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar Module

per Watt

The Solar Revolution is Happening

Natural gas fuel cost projections, 2015-2040

Solar PV purchase agreements, 2015-2040

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000

200 GWin 2014

Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam

16,000 panels3.4 kilometres

3,300 MWh a year

Taiwan Solar Stadium

70 GW

Solar panels on the roof of greenhouses growing mushrooms Neihuang county, Henan province, China

Reuters

The SolarTsunami

Egypt: 7 million vehicles= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year

7 million ELECTRIC vehiclesIf each travels 10,000 km a year

Average 20 kwh per 100 km= 14,000 GWh a year

Solar in the Middle East85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year

Egypt = 1 million sq km



Solar PV for 7 million vehicles

= 85 sq km


.Solar PV for 7 million vehicles

= 85 sq km

Planned Ouarzazate Solar Thermal Plant Morocco

Palouse Wind Project, Washington State

Mark Jacobson Stanford

TRANSPORTATIONPlan to shift all modes of transport

to 100% renewable energy

Transportation without Oil A Vision of the Future

We love you mama!!

This used to be full of traffic

Times Square, New York

This used to be a highway

Seoul, South Korea

stephanekirkland.com

Place de la République, Paris 2006

This used to be a traffic chaos

This used to be the Alaska Way Viaduct…

This used to be six lanes of busy traffic

This used to be rusty old railway line

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Safe protected bike lane, San Francisco

Seville Bike LaneSpain

Copenhagen Bicycle-Bridge

Solar bike lane, South Korea

The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, HollandConnects Eindhoven and Veldhoven

Future Bloor St Bike Route, Toronto

Granville Street Future BridgeVancouver

Electric Bikes

The Copenhagen Wheel

Australia’s Brightbus: 625 miles range

China – Fast-Charging Electric Bus

Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus 170 miles range

Top

Hiroko – 120 km (62 miles) range

Top

Smart Electric – 135 km range84 miles

Nissan Leaf – 120 km range- 75 miles


Mitsubishi MiEV- 150 km range93 miles

Tesla Model X: 250 miles range

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

2018

Estimates of costs of lithium batteries in electric vehicles

Estimates of costs of lithium batteries in electric vehicles

From 2025, all BMWs to be electric

1 in 4

BMW 100% electric truck, Germany

Modec Electric Trucks, UK

Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip

Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet

Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet

Aviation: nothing ready yet

Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

Planned Zero Carbon Energy CenterWuhan, China

BUILDINGS

THREE HUGE CHALLENGES1. All new buildings need to be zero-carbon2. All existing buildings need to be retrofitted to become zero-carbon3. New District Heat networks need to be built that use renewable energy

The 2030 Challenge

The 2030 Challenge and the AIA 2030 Commitment have been adopted by:

• 70% of world’s top 20 A/E/P firms• 52% of all US architecture firms• The AIA• The USGBC• The US Conference of Mayors• The US Federal Government• The White House• National Governors Association• Washington, Illinois, California, Minnesota• and many others

New Buildings

Passive House LEED

Living Building ChallengeNet Zero Energy

Passive House Institute USwww.phius.org

Passive House construction reduces conventional heat load by 90% and overall

energy by up to 70%.

Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost

www.bernhardtpassive.com



Heating used 12.5 kWh/(m2.a) in first year compared to the design value of 15 kWh/(m2.a). Conventional

designs use 12 x more.

Passive House Indoor Tennis Hall, Vaxjo, Sweden

Eight-storey wood-framed Passive Buildings Vaxjo, Sweden

Passive House in Santa Cruz, California

The largest Passive House building in the world: the “RHW.2” in Vienna

The largest Passive House building in the world: the “RHW.2” in Vienna

Optimize Energy Performance: 6% performance improvement = 1 point

50% performance improvement (max) = 18 points

Annual Energy Use: 1% performance improvement = 1 point

90% performance improvement (max) = 29 points

Building Retrofits

By 2050: 5,700 a year3% a year

Building RetrofitsSeattle

655,000 people200,000+ buildings?

By 2030: 13,500 a year7% a year

By 2040: 8,000 a year4% a year

Germany plans to improve the energy efficiency renovation rate

of its existing building stock from 1% to 2%, and later to 3% per year.

blog.floridaenergycenter.org

Six Sources of Renewable Heat

Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat

Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat

“Honey, what on Earth are they doing to our

lawn?”

Geothermal Radial DrillingFrom Austria www.tracto-technik.com

“Oh my, do you fancy a coffee when you’re

done?”

Renewable District Heat

Ocean-source heatBrentwood College, Mill Bay, BC

The aquathermal buildings use 25% of the energy used by

the other buildings. 13 months to pay for themselves.

The loops lie 30 feet deep in Saanich Inlet, covering 1,000 square feet. Stainless steel exchangers

provided a $250,000 savings compared to the cost of traditional heat exchangers.

Stokmarknes Hospital, Norway: thermal energy from the ocean provides nearly 90% of the heat

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.

Solar Thermal District Heat

800 solar hot water panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C). www.dlsc.ca


The Energy Centre

Community solar heat panelsSolar hot water

panels

Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com

Solar heating throughout the cold Alberta winter

BedZed, London, 1990. Biomass District Heat. Failed to work – now natural gas. The wood chip gasifier had reliability problems due to technical problems and an imposed no late-night operation rule.

Biomass District Heat

In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments

Sewer-Source District Heat

Vancouver South-East False Creek

Sewer-Source District Heat

Pre-insulated piping used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia.

Delivery of hot water at 200o C to customers up to 23 km away, net loss of only a few degrees.

Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage

+ Biomass cogeneration plant

Stored Solar District Heat

Marstal Solar Heat Storage Tank, Denmark

Solar Thermal Heat Storage Tank

Surrey, BC, Canada

Planned District Heat:• Industrial Waste Heat• Sewer Heat Recovery• Geo-Exchange• Solar Thermal Heat• Refrigeration Heat

Recovery• Biomass/Woodwaste• District Heat• CHP

Hybrid Renewable District Heat

5

5. We will need the best policies, taxes, incentives and regulations to help us get there.

Passive Building Regulations In Europewww.passivehouse-international.org

Crossway Passive House, Kent, England

European Union LegislationBy 2019, all new public buildings nearly Net Zero

By 2021, all new buildings nearly Net Zero

Freiburg, GermanySince 2011 the Passive House standard has been mandatory.

Hamburg, GermanySince 2012, municipal funding for new housing projects granted

exclusively to Passive Houses.

District of LippeAll new buildings to Passive House Standard.

Also applied when retrofitting existing buildings.

Indoor swimming pool, Lunen, Lippe

Hanover300 terraced houses, semi-detached and detached SF houses being

built to PH Standard.

1998

Cologne Since 2010, all new buildings in Cologne must be designed under the

Passive House concept

BrusselsAll buildings and retrofits to be Nearly-Zero Energy

by the end of 2015 based on the Passive House Standard.

Since 2015, every new building must be built to passivhaus standards.

Conversion of a 1930s vintage office building into condosMDW Architecture

Renovation and Part-New Construction of Former Brewery to Offices and Hotel by Architects l’Escaut

Mixed New Build and retrofit Passive House Apartment Building by A2M

Passive House Childcare Project by A2M

A2M Company Data, 2015

= 4 million sq. ft.

Brussels took a top down approach with its legislation, but gained support from the base by implementing incentives starting in 2010 to help builders and designers get on track, including a $12/SF incentive for exemplary high-performance buildings.

90% of the grant was given to the owners, 10% to the design team to encourage innovation.

“If it’s not smart, beautiful, and inspiring, the Passive House movement could not take off. ” - Joke Dockx, Director for Energy at the Brussels Institute for Management of the Environment

By 2015, Brussels had 15 million sq. ft. of Passive House space.

BrusselsBelgium

Total energy consumption

Total GHGs

Employment

Population

www.bepassive.be

The PassREg project ended in April 2015.

All the deliverables, important best practices

and related resources can be found here:

www.passreg.eu

San FranciscoIncludes projects that aim for Passive House or EnerPHit certification

in their list of options for fast-track planning approval.

Marin County, CAThe applicable green building rating system shall be that

which is most recently adopted by Build It Green, the U.S. Green Building Council or the Passive House Institute.

New York CityTo dramatically reduce GHGs from buildings city-wide by

2050, New York will look to “Passive House, carbon neutral, or `zero net energy’ strategies to inform the standards.”

New York Times

State of PennsylvaniaIncentives for Passive House compliance of multi-family

buildings. Under Energy Efficiency Goals, Passive House is the only standard listed: “The development meets/will meet

Passive House Certification for energy efficiency.”

Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City

Vancouver’s Zero Emissions Building (ZEB) Priorities‐• All new buildings to be zero emission by 2030‐• Demonstrate ZEB standards in new City buildings• Ensure rezoning policy leads the transition to ZEBs• Incentivize and streamline the development of ZEBs• Establish + enforce GHG intensity limits for new dev’t• Develop innovative financing tools to help fund new ZEBs• Establish partnerships to build industry capacity• Mandate building energy benchmarking and labeling

Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City

Zero Emissions Building Priorities‐Retrofit existing buildings to perform like new construction

• Mandate energy efficiency improvements for existing buildings• Provide flexibility to achieve energy efficiency requirements

through the support of on site generation or neighbourhood energy ‐system connection

In Conclusion

The climate crisis is urgent and real

We must change our future story


from worry and fear to

determinationand hope.

The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy



The challenge is huge, but it’s mostly achievable

5. We will need the best policies, taxes, incentives and regulations to help us get there.

We’ll also need the best local leadership

“The thing always happens that you really believe in; and the belief in a thing makes it happen.” - Frank Lloyd Wright


www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com