Getting the Nation Ready by Preparing Cities for EVs Jay Tankersley Rocky Mountain Institute September 2011
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Getting the Nation Ready by Preparing Cities for EVs
Jay TankersleyRocky Mountain Institute
September 2011
By 2012 most major automakers will offer at least one plug-in
2011
Nissan Leaf
2011General Motors Volt
2011Ford Transit Connect
2011
Toyota Plug-In Prius
2012
Mitsubishi MiEV
2012BMW Mini-E
2012Mercedes S-Class
2012
Volvo C30 EV
2013Honda Accord-EV
2013 Volkswagen E-Golf2013Hyundai BlueOn
Industry wide transition: One million EVs by 2015
Total U.S. Light Duty Fleet
=1,000,000 One Million EVs not
enough to make significant impact.
Projected EV share of light duty vehicle sales if we only have 1 million cars on the road by 2015
0
25
50
75
100
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
15-20 Million EVs needed by 2015
New
Lig
ht-
Duty
Veh
icle
s Sal
es S
har
e (%
)
One Million EVs not enough to make significant impact.
Source: RMI Analysis
Why Electric Vehicles?
Economic costs of U.S. oil dependence
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Loss of Potential GDP Dislocation Losses Wealth Transfer
Source: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program
U.S. petroleum consumption by sector0%
1%1%
2%
2%2%
2%3%
10%
16%61%
Industrial
Light-Duty Vehicles
61%
Freight Trucks16%
Air10%
Shipping 3%
Military Use 2.4%
Commercial Light Trucks 2.2%
Pipeline Fuel 2.1%
Rail 2%
Bus 0.9%
Recreational Boating 0.7%Lubricants 0.5%
6%2%
25% 67%
Electrical Power 2%
Industrial25%
Transportation67%
Residential and
Commercial 6%
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007, with projections to 2030
How do we get there?
Prepare for the inevitable arrival of EVs
•Convening Organization:•Rocky Mountain Institute
•Strategic Advisers:•Automakers, OEMs,
utilities, installers, etc.
•Member Cities:•Dedicated city leaders /
representatives
Project Get Ready
• Builds a coalition of member cities;
• Regularly convenes players for open collaboration;
• Documents member city progress and shares best practices;
• Conducts research and publishes reports; and
• Conducts monthly webinars with industry experts
Determining readiness - current status vs. future potential
‣ 65% of cities have a positive view of EVs
‣ 11% of cities have a high level of planning
‣ 11% of cities have a comprehensive approach to infrastructure
‣ 25% have a high level of education and outreach
Source: 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and RMI
Where do we stand?
Source: 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and RMI
“if you connect about 10 percent of the homes on any given street with and electric car, the electricity system fails”
- Anthony Haines, Toronto Hydro
How do we meet added demand?
=1,000,000
System challenges and importance of smart charging
Source: RMI Analysis
“we could get by with zero public infrastructure and the cars would be fine, any public infrastructure is just icing on the cake—it’s nice but not necessary”
- Paul Scott, Plug In America
“we need to dispel the myth of ‘range anxiety’ of consumers by building charging infrastructure”
- Vincent Lyons, Leggett & Platt
Cities should emphasize smart planning. . .
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Construction & Electrical
WorkMaterials Labor Permitting Total
Source: 2011 City of Orlando, FL
. . . without it, cost overruns are inevitable
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Fixed CostVariable Cost
Source: 2011 City of Orlando, FL
“every time we learn something new, that changes the way we approach this business, we have to spend a lot of time modifying IT”
- Karla Wenzel, Portland General Electric
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