Getting Real About Global Warming - EPICC Getting... · G F ENERGY LLC Getting Real About Global Warming Roger W. Gale President & CEO GF Energy EPICC 28 April 2009

G F ENERGY LLC

Getting Real About Global Warming

Roger W. Gale

President & CEO

GF Energy

EPICC

28 April 2009

G F ENERGY LLC

Paradigm

Every era has its defining deadly issue….and evil forces

From The Cold War

to

a hot war

called

Global Warming

An issue that is someone else’s fault and for someone else to fix….but threatens to exterminate us all….

EPICC Global Warming 3

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Power

“…a power grab over all that

burns, breathes, burps, flies,

drives and passes gas.”

Jonah Goldberg, Los Angeles Times, April 2009


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Know

The earth is significantly

warming.

Humans are responsible for

some of the heating.

Some of the effects are negative.

China, India, etc. are increasing

carbon emissions.

OECD countries are moving

toward lower emissions.

The US and Canada are inefficient

energy-users.

The Kyoto efforts to limit carbon emissions have

failed.

We are not ready to hit the issue

head-on.


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Agree

“We have an agreement that there should be an agreement,”

said Mr. Blair, dressed in a white polo shirt, blue cargo shorts and

Nike sneakers.

“But there’s no agreement on what that agreement should be.”

March 2008 comment by Tony Blair on global climate


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Knowing…and…Acting


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Life

“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life.”

George F. Burns quotes (American comedian 1896-1996)


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Enable

“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupery quotes (French Pilot, Writer and Author of The Little Prince, 1900-1944)


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Faith

The worst prognoses don't come true,

we are rational enough

to keep the worst from happening.

Adaptation happens.


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Interpreting

Global Warming:

Distant in time,

Distant in space…

unless you happen to be on the edge already.


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Affluence

The richer everyone gets,

the greener the planet will be

in the long run.


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Motivation

People and institutions react to:

firm,

durable,

significant,

direct,

non-avoidable,

enforceable financial obligations

affecting

core behaviors and commitments.


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Perversity

People and institutions

love delaying action

and

get great pleasure out of

watching others take the heat.


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Polarize

This has emerged as a two-sided issue.

1. What problem? people

2. Disaster-fatalists

3. We need strong effective engagement people to keep the worst from happening


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Extrapolation

Katrina Example


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Question

What motivates and incentivizespeople?


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The California Thermostat Battle

Customer Control Utility Control

Customer

incentivized to

use less, pay

less, be responsible

Utility manages,

gets credit, replaces

lost KWh sales


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Envisioning…

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Today

Where are we today?

Turning onto the road?

Down the road?

Looking for the road?


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Conclusions

There are going to be “edge” emergencies

Affluence fixes a lot of things

The transition away from fossil fuels is starting

Mostly capital formation driven

Long term issue with faulty short term tools

Hysteria masks path to success

Global warming is a real issue


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Mantra

“…we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming.”—Al Gore

“It's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”—Barak Obama


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Perspective

Global Warming

is the biggest threat to the

planet we have ever faced.


Pew Center January 2009

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Action…

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F A I L E D


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Failed

Kyoto Protocol Signers EU

Japan

Canada

Uncommitted US

China

India


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Why

We don’t know what the issue is…

Messianic

Royal Lie

Emergency

Historic transformation

Personal epiphany

Practical problem

Response to affluence


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Paradise


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Us


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Specifics…

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Options

1. Cap-and-trade—everywhere

2. Carbon tax—Only BC


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Wrong Tools

Cap and trade is a cop-out:

like Catholic indulgences

avoids tough actions

free credits destroy credibility

uneven impact

takes the heat off politicians


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Free

Cap-and-trade is based on free riders

and making somebody else

change their behavior

“I’ll pay you…so I don’t have to….”


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Taxes

Taxes are (if done right) unavoidable

and

(if set right) behavior altering


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Next…


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Trends

Smaller populations

More efficient technologies

More electrification

Less fossil power

More efficient cars

An affluent responsible world


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Campbell


Carbon Tax:

“It’s a tax that increases our competitiveness.

…If your choice is to waste energy it will cost you more….”

--Gordon Campbell, Business in Vancouver, April 2009

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BC

Rev-up the climate tax

Make BC a model

Use efficiency tools effectively

Change BC Hydro incentives


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Conclusion

Global warming is real

There will be emergencies

We are passing the buck

It’s everyone’s responsibility

BC can be a leader


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Take-Away


Is your behavior changing?

G F ENERGY LLC

GF Energy, LLC

Management Counsel and Strategy

www.gfenergy.com

Roger W. Gale

President & CEO

[email protected]

http://www.gfenergy.com/

mailto:[email protected]

Getting Real About Global Warming - EPICC Getting... · G F ENERGY LLC Getting Real About Global Warming Roger W. Gale President & CEO GF Energy EPICC 28 April 2009

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