Germany’s Green Energy Transition

Heinrich Böll Foundation North America1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA

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Germany’s Green Energy Transition

Arne Jungjohann, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Washington DC

Durban, December 2011

Washington, DC . Mexico City . San Salvador . Rio de Janeiro . Santiago de Chile . Lagos . Cape Town Nairobi . Addis Ababa . Berlin . Brussels . Warsaw . Prague . Sarajevo . Belgrade . Zagreb . Istanbul Kiev . Moscow . Tbilisi . Kabul . Lahore . New Dheli . Chiang Mai . Phnom Penh . Beijing

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Part 1

Reaction in Germany after Fukushima driven by…

Foto: Anti-Atom-Treck 2010

1. Concerns on Nuclear2. Credibility of Renewables3. Politics

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German reaction after Fukushima driven by

• Chernobyl 1986

• new risk assessment

• 17 old NPP, 80 Million Germany ½ the size of Texas

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Development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Germany 1990 - 2009

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Elec

tric

ity g

ener

atio

n [G

Wh]

Hydropower Wind energy

Biomass * Photovoltaics

EEG:April 2000

EEG:August 2004

StrEG:January 1991 - March 2000

EEG:January 2009

Amendment to BauGB:November 1997

* Solid, liquid, gaseous biomass, biogenic share of waste, landfill and sewage gas; Electricity from geothermal energy is not presented due to the negligible quantities of electricity produced; StrEG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable

Energy Sources Act; Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energies-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); Image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; all figures provisional

Source:BMU

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Jobs: Renewable Energy vs. Lignite Coal Germany, 2004-2010

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Part 2

Gradual Phase-Out by 2022

Heinrich Böll Foundation North America1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA

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Power Generation in Germany (2010)

Friday, May 28, 2010Source: AG Energiebilanzen

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Before Fukushima:• 17 NPP operating up to 2032• providing 22% of power• ~20 GW installed capacity

After Fukushima: • Immediate shutdown of 8NPP• gradual phase-out by 2022 of

remaining 9 NPP

Nuclear Phase-Out by 2022…

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Part 3

So what about…

…energy costs?…power shortages & imports?

… CO2 emissions?

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Expensive Renewable Energy? No, but modest price tag for ratepayers

Institute Commissioned by Estimated rate increaseSRU - 0,4 ECent/kWhEco-Institute WWF 0,5 ECent/kWhRWI/EWI Fed Government 0,5 ECent/kWhPrognos Fed of

Bavarian Industry0,6 ECent/kWh

R2B BDI/Chamber of C 0,9 ECent/kWhDIW - 1,2 ECent/kWh

Source: MdB Hans-Josef Fell

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www.hbfus.org Friday, May 28, 2010

Nuclear is costly: (Subsidy Billions of Euros since 1970)

Hard Coal Nuclear Power

Lignite RenewablesSource: Green Budget Germany

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Increasing electricity imports?Not as a net exporter

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Increasing emissions?Not with carbon cap on power sector

Friday, May 28, 2010

Mio t CO2

Source: BMU

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Increasing emissions?Not with long-term climate targets

Friday, May 28, 2010

GHG Emissions

Source: BMU

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Part 4

Outlook 2020 – 2050On the Way to a Renewable Energy Economy

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Key Climate and Energy Policies• Ecological tax reform (1999-2003)• Renewable Energy Act (2000)• Nuclear Phase Out (2001-2022)• Cap and trade (2005)• Integrated Climate and Energy Program (2007)• Renewable Energy Action Plan (2010)• Energy concept 2050 (2010)

17

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Goal: 80% to 100%Renewable Energies by 2050

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Energy concept 2050: The road to the renewable era

Source:BMU

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Thank you for your attention!

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Arne JungjohannHeinrich Boell Foundation, Washington DC

[email protected]