Geostrategia energetică în regiunea Sud-Est Europeana PIAŢA PETROLULUI 20 aprilie 2004 Marriott Grand Hotel Bucureşti Dr. Ionuţ Purica
Dec 18, 2015
Geostrategia energetică în regiunea Sud-Est Europeana
PIAŢA PETROLULUI20 aprilie 2004
Marriott Grand Hotel Bucureşti
Dr. Ionuţ Purica
The Region in the international context
Gas and Oil in Central Europe
Gas and Oil in South East Europe
Caspian to Mediterranean pipelines
Oil and Gas in Iraq and the Gulf
Druzhba
Druzhba
Adria
AWP
RDO
SEPL
IKL
TenghizNovorossiisk
Baku
Supsa
Urals
Odessa
Ceyhan
Constantza
Burgas
Trieste
Alexandropoulos
TAL
Vlora
5-32.5
5.75 - 28 - 6736
5
6 -10
Net Export in 2010 (MT/A) (source IEA)
Kazakhstan - 48
Azerbaijan - 42.6
Turkmenistan - 2.5
Oil transport posibilities
Caspian Sea Region Oil Production and Exports
(thousand bbl/d)
Net Exports (1997) Possible Exports (2010) Azerbaijan 54.8 1000-1500 Kazakhstan 310.9 2000 Turkmenistan 39.2 50 Uzbekistan 23.8 50 Total 428.7 3100-3600
(source US-EIA)
Comparative prices for oil transport
Route via Price [$/bbl]
Constanta – Trieste land 1.88 (incl. port charges 0.36$/bbl)
Black Sea – Trieste sea 0.80-1.2
Druzhba – Adria land cca. 3.2 (0.72$/t/100km, 2400km)
All price values are estimated and for orientation (source CTPL HLP-Parsons study)
Bosporus Bypass Oil Export Routes(for Oil Transiting the Black Sea)
Name/Location
Route
Crude Capacity
Length Investment Status
Burgas and Trans-Balkan (AMBO) lines
Burgas (Bulgaria) - Alexandroupolis (Greece) or Trans-Balkan line Burgas - Vlore (Albania)
600,000-800,000 bbl/d
200 miles (if to Alexandroupolis)
$800 million (if to Alexandroupolis)
Initial agreement 1997 Bulgaria, Greece, Russia for Burgas line.AMBO (Albanian-Macedonian-Bulgarian Oil) also proposed a Trans-Balkan line
South-East European Line (SEEL)
Constanta(Romania) - Trieste (Italy)
660,000 bbl/d
1000 miles $971 million ENI (Italy) signed protocol with Petrom (state oil firm of Romania) to transport Kazakh oil. Protocol ratified if signed by other republics along the route
Ukraine Odessa to Brody 600,000-800,000 bbl/d
415 miles $400 million to complete pipeline
Construction began Pivdenny (Yuzhnyi) oil terminal near Odessa; pipeline complete
No sea access only land supply
Both sea access and land supply
No land supply only access to sea
The forces driving change in the business environment
Information technology
Increasedcompetition
Fluctuating oilprices
Rapid technologychanges
Environmentalawareness
Deregulation
Privatisation
Disintegration
Breakdown ofnational frontiers
Government A(weak credit)
Government B(weak credit)
Government C(adequate credit)
Intergovernmental agreement
Joint Venture
Offtakers (weak state enterprises)
Offtakers (market)
Project lenders
IFI (e.g. World Bank, EBRD, etc.) , Guarantors (e.g. Sace, Hermes, EximBanks, AIG, etc)
Indemnity guarantee CIndemnity
guarantee A, B
Guarantee A, B state enterprise
payment
Loan
Transit agreement
Guarantee Production/supply sharing A & transit agreement A, B, C
International border International border
Supply (market)
Production/supply sharing agreement
Constantza (Black Sea) to Adriatic Sea Pipeline Project(possible project / guarantee structure)
Government A(weak credit)
Government B(weak credit)
Government C(adequate credit)
Intergovernmental agreement
TRACECA and INOGATE treaties are paving the way
Countries passed by the pipe are politically stable and have started EU integration negotiations, moreover they are NATO members or partners
Discussions are in course on a political Memorandum among the interested countries in CTPL drafted with EU support
Serbian market is joining in
Region Level
Joint Venture
Offtakers (weak state enterprises)
Offtakers (market)
Transit agreement
Supply (market)
Production/supply sharing agreement
Existing market in Europe and competitive transmission tariffsExisting sources in the Caspian regionProven TechnologyExperienced Sponsors/Operators
Market Level
Project lenders
Guarantee A, B state enterprise
payment
Loan
Appropriate Financial Structure and Security (30/70debt/equity with well defined local participation)Experienced Sponsors/ManagersTotal Project Cost of US$971 MRisk coverage in all stages
Financial Level
IFI (e.g. World Bank, EBRD, etc.) , Guarantors (e.g. Sace, Hermes, EximBanks, AIG, etc)
Indemnity guarantee CIndemnity
guarantee A, B
Guarantee Production/supply sharing A & transit agreement A, B, C
Project Completion RiskOperational and Performance Risks* Technical Performance* Operational ManagementMarket and Price RiskCountry/Region Risk* Foreign Exchange Risk* Currency Convertibility Risk* Political Risk* Force Majeure
Guarantees Level
Dr.ing.ec. Ionut PURICA
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