GEOSS Benefit Assessment M. Obersteiner @ GEOBENE team(2006-9) PEOIC - Assessing the Impact of Satellite EO on Society and Policy 9 th November 2015
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GEOSS Benefit Assessment
M. Obersteiner @ GEOBENE team(2006-9)
PEOIC - Assessing the Impact of Satellite EO on Society and Policy 9th November 2015
IIASA and GEOSS Benefit assessment
• All SBAs• All parts of the policy cycle• Many methodologies => PWC, Booz…• Portfolios of Observing Systems• VOI book M. Macauley…..
=> Happy to inform PEOIC
GEOSS Projects: GEO-BENE, ENERGEO, EUROGEOSS, GEOCARBON, CROWDLAND, SATIDA, SIGMA/GEOGLAM…
Determinant of GEOSS Value
1. Decision making context2. Risk appetite3. Nature of risk
Example: GEOSS at COP 21
?
REDD
Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation
Land cover uncertainty
Decision context: Value of Information
New technology in industry = $30/tonC
REDD = $10/tonC if more land available
REDD = $40/tonC if less land available
50%
50%
$30/ton vs. [0.5*$10+0.5*$40]=$25/ton
Decision Context: Value of Information
New technology in industry = $30/tonC
REDD = $10/tonC if more land available
REDD = $40/tonC if less land available
20%
80%
$30/tonC vs. [0.3*$10+0.7*$40]=$34/tonC
Global Integrated Assessment Modelling
• Calculate VoI of improved Land Observing System:
–Uncertainty of land availability–Risk averseness
Land cover uncertainty
10
Land cover uncertainty and REDD
Mill
. Ton
s C
O2/a
Value of Information from better land coverM
ill. $
10%
> 2 bill. $
Risk averseness and REDD
Increasingly risk-averse
Mill
. t C
O2/a
Value of Information and risk averseness
Mill
. $
Increasingly Risk-averse
Conclusions
• The VOI of Global Land Observing System is a fraction of the overall mitigation costs, but is very high in absolute terms– E.g. 2 billion $/a for a 10% decrease of uncertainty
• VOI policy context specific• VOI depends on degree of uncertainty• VOI depends on risk preference
GEOSS VOI and type of decision error
Case of climate adaptation of global food system
Leclere et al., 2015
Adaptation in Agriculture
• Change Crop Management (e.g. irrigation)• Change Crop Type• Change Location of Farm• Change Commodity Trade• …..
The GEOSS impact framework
Leclère et al., 2015
Representative concentration
pathwaysRCPs
∆ RF
Perturbation
General circulation
modelsCMIP5
Climate
Global gridded crop models
GGCMs
Biophysical
∆ T∆ Pr
…Crop
IIASA tools
Global land database
+
∆ Yield∆ Inputs
Global gridded crop models
GGCMsEconomics
∆ Supply∆ Trade∆ Food∆Prices
…
Socio-economic scenario
+
Value of Information
Adaptation and Maladaptation
No CC CC1 CC2 Adaptationsstrategies
Adaptation and Maladaptation
No CC CC1 CC2
CC1 x x x
CC2 x x x
Adaptationsstrategies
What really happens
Adaptation and Maladaptation
No CC CC1 CC2
CC1 No-adapt Adapt Maladapt
CC2 No-adapt Maladapt Adapt
Adaptationsstrategies
What really happens
VOI of a “perfect” climate prediction system
– NO-ADAPT: up to -246 bil. US$/year
– ADAPT: up to -43 bil. US$/year~ / 5
VOI under different adaptation decision errors
– NO-ADAPT: up to -246 bil. US$/year
– ADAPT: up to -43 bil. US$/year
– MALADAPT: up to -470 bil. US$/year
~ / 5
~ x 10
~ x 2
Value of GEOSS is highest when it avoids bad decision ……
……..because the universe of bad decisions is larger than the universe of good decisions!
GEOSS valuation can be done, but needs precise methodology, data and
modelling!!!
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