National Aeronautics and Space Administration gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov GEOS-CF: Global Composition Forecasting with NASA GMAO’s GEOS System – a Focus on Africa Steven Pawson, Christoph Keller, Emma Knowland Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Bryan Duncan Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Daniel Jacob Harvard University WMO-GAW-SAWS International Workshop Seamless Prediction of Air Pollution for Africa: from Regional to Urban Pretoria, South Africa – December 4-6, 2017
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
GEOS-CF: Global Composition Forecasting with
NASA GMAO’s GEOS System – a Focus on Africa
Steven Pawson, Christoph Keller, Emma Knowland
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Bryan Duncan
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Daniel Jacob
Harvard University
WMO-GAW-SAWS International Workshop Seamless Prediction of Air Pollution for Africa: from Regional to UrbanPretoria, South Africa – December 4-6, 2017
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
Themes of GMAO’s Research and Products
Weather Analysis and
Prediction
Seasonal-to-Decadal
Analysis and Prediction
Global Mesoscale
Modeling
Reanalysis
Observing System
Science
• These (non-orthogonal) themes span GMAO’s main focus areas
• Strong emphasis on NASA’s Earth Observations (use, support, planning)
• GEOS is a modular system, encompassing many Earth System components
• Aerosols are established in production systems; reactive chemistry is an emerging focus
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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The “GEOS-CF” (composition forecasting) system combines:
• The GEOS model/assimilation system (meteorology, transport, …)
• Many (NASA) observations of physical and chemical parameters
It is being run in near-real time as a research project; target date for a routine production system is April 2018
Unrestricted data access is planned (NASA policy) via Servers
Currently, O3 is the only reactive chemical species being assimilated; development is underway to assimilate NOx, CO, and other gases
Overview of NASA’s GEOS-CF System
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Various NASA observations used in GMAO’s constituent work
Distributions of fires (Biomass Burning Emissions)
Land-surface vegetation and ocean color (Emissions, dry deposition, …)
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Surface Ozone from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem
Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe
The “analyses” and five-day forecasts are shown in red; surface observations are black
Note the diurnal ozone variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through
Providence, RI: Obs (black); forecast (red)
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Surface NO2 from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem
Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe
The “analyses” and five-day forecasts are shown in red-yellow (near-far); surface observations are black
Note the diurnal variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through (as well as weekends in emissions) Zurich, CH: Obs (black); forecast (red-yellow)
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National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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Some Examples Over Africa: Isoprene and Ozone
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Some Examples Over Africa: NO2, O3 and PM2.5
Lago
sP
reto
ria
NO2 O3 PM2.5
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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Some Examples Over Africa: HAQI (PM2.5, O3, NO2, CO)
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GEOS-CF, with global ~25-km resolution, is being run each day
GEOS-CF Composition forecasts:
• Show skill at five days over North America and Europe (weather)
• Benefit from our knowledge of emissions in those regions
• Agree that African air quality is dominated by regional/seasonal features
• Dust and smoke emissions are major factors
• Ozone and other gases have regional importance – which is uncertain
Validation over data-sparse regions such as Africa is problematic:
• Existence/availability of in-situ observing capabilities
• Availability of realistic (anthropogenic) emissions databases
GEOS-CF data will soon be freely distributed via openly accessible servers
Summary
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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Who funds this activity within this project?
NASA. Funding for core NASA/GMAO activities covers global Earth System analysis and modeling/assimilation work to benefit NASA observations; GEOS-Chem implementation via competed funding (Jacob-Pawson).
Who would be stakeholders and users of data and information?
The global community. GMAO can provide global fields (analyses, 5-day forecasts, emissions), currently at 25km resolution; looking at enhanced complexity (resolution; ensembles; ...).
Are there specific protocols to follow when using the data?
Data will be freely available (target date: April 2018), through NASA data distribution policies. Follow normal scientific protocol: citation; co-authorship when appropriate; careful acknowledgement of the GMAO.