Geopolitics and International Business Conflicts, Sea ...

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Geopolitics and International BusinessConflicts, Sea power and Trade

Behind the curtain …

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History and conflicts analysis

� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Origins of conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts

� 2) Commercial power & sea power � Why sea power ?

� Insight into sea power building � International trade expansion and sea power

� 3) Case study: Sea power at work� The USA

� Japan � China

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Let’s talk about GDP


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� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Power and conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts

� 2) Commercial power & sea power

� Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building

� International trade expansion and sea power

� 3) Case study: Sea power at work

� The USA � Japan

� China

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The ingredients of conflict


Needs

Power

Values Emotions

Perceptions

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Origins of conflicts (1)


Territory• Expand

power• Ability to

feed pop.

Resources• Water,

wood, food• Ore, oil, gas

Population• Slavery• Ethnic

purification

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Origins of conflicts (2)


Structural factors

• Weak states• Infrastructure• Security concerns• Ethnic geography

Political factors• Weak states• Discriminatory

political institutions• Exclusionary national

ideologies• Intergroup/ Elite

politics

Economic & social factors

• Economic problems• Discriminatory

economic system• Economic

development & modernization

Cultural and perceptual factors• Bloated security force• Cultural

discrimination• Group histories• Religions• Terrorism

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The concept of "power"

Core concept of International relations (realist approach) but ambiguous definition

“By power on the international scene I mean the capacity of a political body to impose its will on other bodies. In brief, political power is not

an absolute but a human relationship.” (R. Aron 1905 - 1983, Paix et guerre entre les Nations, 1962)

Origins of conflicts – Power


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Hard Power

Economic Power

Soft Power Multipolar / few organized

3D Chess game, J.S. Nye

Military powerHegemony of the USA

Multipolar / organized

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The concept of “Soft power"

“The ability to get what you want through attraction rather than through coercion”

(J. Nye, Bound to Lead, 1990)

� Contrasted with hard power (“carrots and sticks”)

� Nation can achieve its goals without tangible threats or payoffs



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� 1) Overview of conflicts � Why� Origins of conflicts � Historical insight into conflicts

� 2) Commercial power & sea power

� Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building


� 3) Case study: Sea power at work

� The USA � Japan

� China

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Historical Evolution of War – Time line


Heroic(3000BC- ?)

Nomadic(2000BC-

1300)

Imperial(2000BC –

1700)

Feudal(500-1300)

Industrial (1850-1945)

Nuclear (1945-to date)

Cyber war (?)

Pre-Industrial (1650- 1850)

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Historical Evolution of War – Ancient timesHistory and conflicts analysis

Heroic Nomadic Imperial Feudal

Individual

• Bravery• Local• Spoils• No conquest

• Centralized power

Individual

• Victory• Mobility +++ • Raiding • No control

over territories• Nomad

Army

• Professional• Mobility• Taxes• Conquest

• Highly centralized

Political leaders

• Pro / farmers• Forts • Taxes ++• Local

conquest• Highly

decentralized

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TRANSITION FROM FEUDAL TO MODERN

� Military� 1450 - 1550: Use of gunpowder to destroy castles, economic

power became prerequisite for military power� 1532: The prince, Machiavelli (1469 - 1527) = military

conscription. � 1550 - 1650: Efficient centralized taxation

� Age of discovery � Marco Polo (1271 – 1295)� Great discoveries: 15th – 16th centuries

Historical Evolution of War – Early modern


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Marco Polo exploration (1271 – 1295)



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Map of Age of discovery (source: wikipedia)



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MODERN PRE-INDUSTRIAL (1650 - 1850: Limited War)

� Technological enhancement ( gunpowder + industrialization process / 1750)

� Centralization (state has the monopole of violence and taxation)

� Commercialization (trade /colonial wars)



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INDUSTRIAL ERA (1850 – 1950 = Age of Total Wars)

� Major technological changes � Transportation (faster, farther, easier …)

� Production (industrialization = mass weapons production)

� Communication

� Major Political changes

� Karl Von Clausewitz (1780 – 1831) “War is merely a continuation of politics”, On War

� Max Weber (1864 – 1920) Define state as an entity which claims a “monopoly on the legitimate use of violence”

� Total wars => WWI & WWII

Historical Evolution of War – Modern


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NUCLEAR ERA (1950 – present)

� Cold War � “Political” war = Fight to expand political model � Nuclear arms race (1950-1995) / MAD

� 1990 – 2001 � Intrastate conflicts / Ethnic purification� Global availability of industrial weapons

� After 2001 � Terrorism & influence of militarized non-state actors� Geopolitics of energy ++� Nuclear weapons dissemination

Historical Evolution of War – Modern


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Historical Evolution of War – Time line


Industrial(1850-1945)

Nuclear (1945-to date)

Cyber war (?)

Aviation

(combustion engine)

Spatial

(jet engine; GPS)

Mass production Colonization International Global

Electromechanical Age

(1800 Telegraph, IBM 1896)

IT

(1954 1st generation)

ARPANET (1963) INTERNET

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1) Overview of conflicts

WhyOrigins of conflicts

Historical insight into conflicts

2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building International trade expansion and sea power

3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA

Japan China

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For whosoever commands the sea, commands the

trade. Whosoever commands the

trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and

consequently the world itself.


Sir Walter Raleigh(1552-1618)

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� 95 % live within 500 miles of the sea

� 66% live within 50miles of the sea

� 80 % of all states border on the coast

� 80 % of worlds capitals lie within 300 NM of shore

� Over 80% of world trade - by volume - being carried b y sea

� Inexpensive means of transport (30 times less)

� 152 of 195 (203) of the world’s nations are accessible by naval expeditionary forces

Why sea power – Humans and sea interactions


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Why sea power – Seaborne trade (1)


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Why sea power – Seaborne trade (2)


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Maritime trade routes

Why sea power – Maritime routes (1)


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Oil maritimes routes



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Oil maritimes routes, South Asia



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Oil importation dependance in Asia

Why sea power – Natural resources


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milli

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Chine Inde Japon Corée du Sud Taiwan

Pays

Import 2006

Prod 2006

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Territorial disputes in China Sea (Source : cat.middlebury.edu)

Why sea power – Natural resources


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Undersea Internet cable map

Why sea power – Undersea communication routes


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Submarine cable map

Why sea power – Undersea communication routes


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2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?

Insight into sea power building International trade expansion and sea power


Japan China

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Sailing Ships

Galleys useless on Atlantic Ocean due to high sea states and poor weather.

Merchant ships developed into caravels and then galleons.Initially cannon are used to attack at longer range, then grappling hooks are used for boarding enemy ships.

Improvements in navigation.Magnetic compass and “dead reckoning”.Latitude / longitude .Allowed longer voyages away from land.

Sea power – Technological improvement


(source: NTROC)

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Industrial revolution



Before After

Propulsion Sail Steam

Armor Wood Iron

Weapons Solid shot Shell

(source: NTROC)

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Caraval Galleon Ship of the Line



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USS Mississipi, sidewheel steamer, 1842



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(Merchant marine) Containership Tankers



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Air Craft Carrier



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New waterway

Nov. 1869: Opening of Suez canal1956: Nationalization by Egypt and Suez crisis (ended by USSR / USA decision)



1880: First attempt to construct Panama canal (French)

� 1900: USA � 1914: opening

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Guerre de Escadre vs guerre de course

� Mahan (US) vs Corbett (UK) naval strategy � Mahan: control of the sea would grant the power to control the trade and

resources needed to wage war, focused on capabilities for decisive battle� Corbett: view of maritime strategy as both offensive and defensive, and

linked to lines of communication as the foremost imperative (blockade)

� Sea control / sea denial

� Maritime vs Continental Powers

� Stronger vs Weaker

Sea power – War at sea


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Sea power – Military forces ranking (2008)


Rank Country tonnage GDP

1st USA 2,900,000 t 1st

2nd Russia 1,100,000 t 6th

3rd China 850,000 t 2nd

4th UK 470,000 t 7th

5th Japan 432,000 t 3th

6th France 307,000 t 8th

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2) Commercial power & sea power Why sea power ?Insight into sea power building

International trade expansion and sea power


Japan China

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� Portugal: Prince Henry the Navigator� Bartholomew Diaz - Cape of Good Hope - 1486� Vasco da Gama - India - 1497 -- Conflict with Arabs.� Cabral - Brazil – 1500

� Spain - Large empire established in the Americas� Columbus - Americas - 1492

�- Named for Amerigo Vespucci (?)� Magellan - Circumnavigation of the Globe - 1519-1522� “The Conquistadors” of America

�- Balboa - Panama - 1513�- Ponce de Leon - Florida - 1513�- Cortez - Mexico (Aztec Empire) - 1520�- Pizarro - Peru (Inca Empire) – 1532

Sea power – Age of Exploration


(source: NTROC)

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� Treaty of Tordesillas - 1494� Papal division of the world to regulate exploration and

colonization by Portugal and Spain.

� England, Holland, and France begin exploration - 1500’s.� Ignore Treaty of Tordesillas.� European competition for overseas colonies begins.

� Mercantilism � Colonies needed to support economic growth.

Sea power – Early European Colonization


(source: NTROC)

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Great Britain fears France's threat to become militarily dominant in Europe

� Continental element� France Army 5-to1 to the British� Britain monetarily and militarily subsidies her continental

allies

� Maritime element� Britain prospered through commerce across the Atlantic� Royal Navy “shows the flag” from warships� Britain gaining timber and Naval supplies from the Baltic� Britain maintained a fleet twice the size of France

Sea power – Anglo-French Conflicts (1689-1775)


(source: NTROC)

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British Empire (source: Wikipedia) – "The Empire on which the sun never sets"

Sea power – Great Britain Mistress of the Seas


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� 1) Overview of conflicts

� Why� Origins of conflicts

� Historical insight into conflicts

� 2) Commercial power & sea power � Why sea power ?� Insight into sea power building


� 3) Case study: Sea power at work� The USA � Japan � China

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CAPT A. T. MahanThe Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660-1783 (1890)

Determined Sea Power was influential to growth of all great nations.

Used England as example and compared US to England.

Mahan's doctrine has guided the U.S. Navy since the 1890s

Sea power – The case of the USA


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United State expansion in Pacific (1800 – 1900)



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The US Navy as an instrument of FP � 19th century: Commercial expansion/Showing the flag

� 20th century: "Making the world safe for democracy"



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US navy – fleet locations



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JapanChina

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Brief overview of Japan history

1543: Europeans (Portuguese & Dutch) discover Japan

08/15/1549: Saint Francis Xavier (Spanish jesuit missionary) arrival in Kagoshima => introduction of Christianity.

1571: Daïmyo Omura Sumitada opens Nagasaki port to trade with foreign countries. (converted to christianity in1562).

1613: Shogun Tokugawa Yeyasu (Edo era), interdiction of Christianity

1638: Japan is closed to foreigners (except Chinese and Dutch protestants in Deshima Island)

Sea power – The case of Japan


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Opening of Japan

July 8,1853 four “black ships” led by USS Powhatan anchored at Edo (Tokyo) Bay.

Asked to proceed to Nagasaki / refuse / attack building around harbor.

Japanese government realized that their country was in no position to defend

itself against this foreign power

Commodore Perry

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Opening of JapanMarch 31, 1854 Treaty of Kanawaga

� Peace and friendship between the United States and Japan.

� Opening of two ports to American ships at Shimoda and Hakodate

� Help for any American ships wrecked on the Japanese coast and protection for shipwrecked persons

� Permission for American ships to buy supplies, coal, water, and other necessary provisions in Japanese ports.



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Current self defense forces of Japan

� WWII: army is dissolved

� 1954: creation of Japan self defense forces� Ground / Air / Maritime

� Large fleet with significant blue-water operating capabilities� Based on defensive armament� Maintain control and to patrol territorial waters



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3) Case study: Sea power at workThe USA Japan

China

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Zheng He (鄭和, 1371 – 1433, Ming Dynasty 1368-1644)

三保太監下西洋 (Zheng He to the Western Ocean) 1405 – 1433

� 15th Century� Chinese put to sea a fleet larger and more powerful than

anything the world had ever seen.

� Fleet = 28,000 sailors on 300 ships (1588 - Spanish armada 130 ships, 30,000 men including 20,000 soldiers).

� Seven expeditions were meant as part � Diplomatic mission � Trade mission� Military force

Sea power – The case of China (1)


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Order Time Regions along the way [

1st Voyage1405-1407

Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Aru, Sumatra, Lambri, Ceylon, Kollam, Cochin, Calicut

2nd Voyage 1407-1409 Champa, Java, Siam, Cochin, Ceylon

3rd Voyage 1409-1411Champa, Java, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Quilon, Cochin, Calicut, Siam, Lambri, Kaya, Coimbatore

4th Voyage 1413-1415Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Cochin, Calicut, Kayal, Pahang, Kelantan, Aru, Lambri, Hormuz, Maldives, Mogadishu, Malindi, Aden, Muscat, Dhufar

5th Voyage 1416-1419Champa, Pahang, Java, Malacca, Sumatra, Lambri, Ceylon, Sharwayn, Cochin, Calicut, Hormuz, Maldives, Mogadishu, Barawa, Malindi, Aden

6th Voyage 1421-1422Hormuz , East Africa (Kenya) , countries of the Arabian Peninsula

7th Voyage 1430-1433Champa, Java, Palembang, Malacca, Sumatra, Ceylon, Calicut, Hormuz... (17 states in total)


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Ming Dynasty 1368-1644Chinese fleet destruction

� At that time China and India together accounted for more than half of the world's gross national product.

� During the 1400s, China retreated into relative isolation� 1433: Zheng He died at sea � 1479: the vice president of the Ministry of War burned the court records

documenting Zheng He's expeditions; � Shipbuilding laws were implemented that restricted vessels to a small

size; decline of the Ming navy allowed the growth of piracy along China's coasts

� No counterattack, but Ming authorities chose to shut down coastal facilities and starve the pirates out, all foreign trade was to be conducted by the state under the guise of formal tribute missions



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Ming Dynasty 1368-1644Chinese fleet destruction

� 1500: the Chinese government had made it a capital offense to build a boat with more than two masts

� 1525: The Government ordered the destruction of all oceangoing ships

The destruction of the fleet induced the stagnation of economic and technological expansion till the 18th century (Fairbank and

Levinson)



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First Opium Wars (1839 - 1842)Brief historical insight� Opium was smuggled by merchants from British India into

China in defiance of Chinese prohibition laws. � Facing important health and political problems, Chinese

government decided to stop the illicit trade. � 1838: Lin Zexu is sent to Guangzhou to halt the illegal

importation of opium. � 1,700 Chinese opium dealers arrested � 70,000 opium pipes confiscated � resorted to use force � merchants gave up nearly 1.2 million kilograms of opium� Lin prepared for war against the possible British invasion => British force

was defeated numerous times in the Canton region� The British force was compelled to sail north to attack (unprepared)

Jiangsu and Zhejiang => easily landed

Sea power – The Case of China (5)


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First Opium Wars (1839 - 1842)Also know as first Anglo-Chinese War

� Treaty of Nanjing (first of the unequal treaties, 29 August 1842)

�negotiated aboard HMS Cornwallis anchored at Nanjing�granted an indemnity to Britain, �opening of five Ports (Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, Fuzhou

and Guangzhou) �and the cession of Hong Kong Island, �ending the monopoly of trading in the Canton System�granted extraterritoriality and most favored nation status

to Britain (additional treaty of Humen).



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21st Century - Rising China

� Great strategy � Building Chinese navy’s capabilities (bought aircraft carrier from

Russia, new war ships class, new submarine …)� Expand China influence (string pearls strategy)� Importance of sea power to become a “full” power (Somalia

mission / peacekeeping/ piracy fighting)

� Energy supply security � Diversifying way of supply (land & sea)� Securing oil sea lanes / and oil supply � Securing maritime trade routes (piracy)



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Destroyer DDG 171 Haikou, DDG 169 Wuhan & Supply ship Weishanhu – Somalia mission



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Geopolitics and International BusinessConflicts, Sea power and Trade

Some definitions

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Tribe : consists of a social group existing before the development of states.

City-State : is an independent country whose territory consists of a city (eg

Athens, Sparta …, Singapore, Monaco, Vatican).

State : A sovereign state is a political association with effective internal and external sovereignty over a geographic area and population which is not dependent on, or subject to any other power or state. (Peace of Westphalia,

1648)

Nation : A nation is a body of people who share a real or imagined common history, culture, language or ethnic origin (E. Renan).

Empire : is a geographically extensive group of states and peoples (ethnic groups) united and ruled either by a monarch (emperor, empress) or an oligarchy

Definitions


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IGO: organization comprised primarily of sovereign states (referred to

as member states), or of other intergovernmental organization

NGO: non-governmental organization created by natural or legal persons with no participation or representation of any government.

Stateless nation: nation without State (Jews before Israel, Kurd, Palestinian …)

Nationless State: ?

Definitions


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Refers to the two peace treaties of Osnabrück and Münster, signed on May 15 and October 24, 1648, respectively, and written in French, that ended both the Thirty Years' War in the Holy Roman Empire (today mostly Germany) and the Eighty Years' War between Spain and the Republic of the Seven United Netherlands. The treaties involved the Holy Roman Emperor, Ferdinand III (Habsburg), the Kingdoms of Spain, France and Sweden, the Dutch Republic and their respective allies among the princes and the Free imperial cities of the Holy Roman Empire.

The Peace of Westphalia resulted from the first modern diplomatic congress and initiated a new order in central Europe based on the concept of state sovereignty. The regulations became part of the constitutional laws of the Holy Roman Empire. The Treaty of the Pyrenees, signed in 1659, ended the war between France and Spain and is often considered part of the overall accord.Source: Wikipedia

Peace of Westphalia


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Also known as the Age of Exploration, was a period in history starting in the 15th Century and continuing into the 19th Century, during which Europeans and European descendants explored the world by ocean searching for trading partners and particular trade goods. The most desired trading goods were gold, silver and spices. Western Europeans used the compass, new sailing ship technologies, new maps, and advances in astronomy to seek a viable trade route to Asia for valuable spices which would be uncontested by Mediterranean powers. In terms of shipping advances, the most important developments were the creation of the carrack and caravel designs in Portugal. These vessels evolved from medieval European designs from the North Sea and both the Christian and Islamic Mediterranean. They were the first ships that could leave the relatively placid and calm Mediterranean, Baltic or North Sea and sail safely on the open Atlantic.Source: Wikipedia

The Age of Discovery


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Conflict is a natural disagreement resulting from individuals or groups that differ in attitudes, beliefs, values or needs. It can also originate from past rivalries and personality differences.

Other causes of conflict include trying to negotiate before the timing is right or before needed information is available.

What is conflict?


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