Geographic Isolation Scenarios

Geographic Isolation Scenarios

Purpose

• Understand which basins affect which areas of the bay and by how much

Procedure

• Set the Susquehanna at Tier 3 loads and all other watersheds at 2000 levels

• Record the relative change in attainment for each criterion and designated use area

• Repeat for each basin

Progress

• All basins completed

• Incorporated improvements in process

• Results are provisional

Why Still Provisional

• Small changes difficult to compare to large changes

• Different basins have different N:P:Sed ratios

TN reduction to Tier3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Susq Potomac James ESMD WSMD Rapp York ESVA Patux

mil

lio

n l

b p

er y

ear

Tier3 Load

Tier3 redux

TP reduction to Tier3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

James Susq Potomac ESMD Rapp York WSMD ESVA Patux

mil

lio

n l

b p

er y

ear

Tier3 Load

Tier3 redux

SED reduction to Tier3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Potomac Susq James ESMD Rapp Patux York WSMD ESVA

mil

lio

n t

on

s p

er y

ear

Tier3 Load

Tier3 redux

Presentation Rules

• Do not show normalized results for Patuxent or ESVA.

• Do not consider changes below a particular threshold to be significant

• CL spring = 0.0011• CL summer = 0.005• KE = 0.0006

Other Considerations

• Final criteria curves not implemented

• Final model applications areas not decided

• Final designated use boundaries and clarity depths not decided

Results

• Problems (red areas)

• Who has biggest impact

• Who has biggest relative effectiveness

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

#N/A #N/A

20

39

3 #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A

10

10

9

#N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A

70

51

87

#N/A #N/A #N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

0

5

10

15

20

25


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

pe

r m

illi

on

lbs

red

uce

d

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

#N/A #N/A8

#N/A #N/A

9

#N/A #N/A

83

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

#N/A 0

25

38

72 0 #N/A#N/A

4

10

10

10

94

#N/A#N/A

96

66

52

8390

96

#N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

#N/A #N/A6

#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A #N/A

84

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Potomac

#N/A #N/A

27

#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A #N/A

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

#N/A #N/A

17

#N/A#N/A #N/A

10

#N/A#N/A #N/A

73

#N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - York

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0 0#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A5 5

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

95 95

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

57


10


33

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Main Bay

0 0 3 4 0 0 1 01 3

9 9

2 38

2

99 9788 87

98 9792

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Patuxent

0 052 5

9

98 95

86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMHRed

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Potomac

0 052

7

9

9893

86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0 0 0 01 15 5

99 9995 95

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - York

0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 3 6 2

99 99 99 99 97 94 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - James

0 0 0 01 1 1 3

99 99 99 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH

Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

2 0 0 0 0 0

83 6 5 4 1

9097 94 95 96 99

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Main Bay

2 1 0 0 18 7 55 4 4 2 4

8 88

94 94 96 98 95

84 85 87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Main Bay

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Main Bay

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Patuxent

4 1 1

87 6

8892 94

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Patuxent

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Patuxent

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Potomac

1 054

2

8

95 98

87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Potomac

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Potomac

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Rappahannock

1 0 0 05

3 4 2

94 97 96 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Rappahannock

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Rappahannock

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - York

0 0 0 0 0 3 32 2 2 26

6 5

98 98 98 9893 91 92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - James

61 0

198

6 5

9

8693 95

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Eastern Shore

0 0 0 1 0 02 4 2 4 4 2

98 96 98 96 96 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Main Bay

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 04

26 5 2 4 2 2

95 9894 95 98 96 98 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Main Bay

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Main Bay

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Patuxent

42

21

5

10

10

9

48

69

86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Patuxent

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Patuxent

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Potomac

18

1 2

9

58

73

9490

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Potomac

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Potomac

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Rappahannock

14

0 0 0

9

2 3 2

77

98 97 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Rappahannock

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Rappahannock

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - York

0 1 0 0 1 0 02 3 2 26

4 4

98 96 98 9893 96 96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - York

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - York

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - James

20

1 0 0

10

53 2

70

94 97 98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - James

0

5

10

15

20

25


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - James

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Eastern Shore

1

14

0 4 0 05

10

2

6

3 3

94

77

9890

97 97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Eastern Shore

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Eastern Shore

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Main Bay

50

27

50

37 39 3834

30

10

10

10

1010 10

1010

41

64

41

53 51 5256

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Patuxent

27 24 26

1010

10

64 67 64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Potomac

48 49

30

10 10

10

42 41

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

POTTF POTOH POTMH

Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Rappahannock

41

13

26

54

10

7

9

10

49

80

65

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock

0

5

10

15

20

25


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - York

19 16

2

49

1419 21

89

5

10

9

1010

73 75

93

41

7771 69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - James

44

31

19

7

10

9

10

8

46

60

71

85

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Eastern Shore

20

72

38 41

18

6

9

10

109

10

8

71

18

53 50

73

86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed

Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Patuxent

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

VA Eastern Shore

Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07


Red

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

ts g

ain

ed p

er m

illio

n lb

s re

du

ced Susquehanna

MD Western Shore

Potomac

Rappahannock

York

James

MD Eastern Shore

Preliminary Findings - Clarity

• Local Problem

• Susquehanna influence felt in upper half of bay

Preliminary Findings - Chlorophyll

• Local Problem

• Susquehanna influence felt in upper half of bay

Preliminary Findings – DO Deep Channel

• CB3 through CB5

• Susquehanna influence strong but decreasing

• Rappahannock and north have strong local effect

• James and York are minor effects

• POTMH is part of the mainstem

Preliminary Findings – DO Deep Water

• Similar to DO Deep Channel, but the local effect is more pronounced.

Still to Come

• Revise with new criteria bioreference curves, designated use boundaries, and clarity depths.

• After tidal fresh allocations are made, do a similar analysis to inform the final allocation decisions.

Geographic Isolation Scenarios

Documents