GEOGLAM Global Agricultural Monitoring Dr. Selma Cherchali on behalf of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor team Land and Hydrology Program Manager Science, Application and innovation Directorate, CNES Co-Lead, CEOS - GEOGLAM AdHoc group, [email protected]With the contribution :Michel Deshayes 2 , Alyssa Whitcraft 3 2 GEOGLAM Coordinator, [email protected]3 GEOGLAM Secretariat, CEOS liaison, [email protected]
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GEOGLAM Global Agricultural Monitoring · 2017-10-02 · GEOGLAM Global Agricultural Monitoring Dr. Selma Cherchali on behalf of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor team Land and Hydrology Program
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GEOGLAM
Global Agricultural Monitoring
Dr. Selma Cherchali
on behalf of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor team
Land and Hydrology Program Manager
Science, Application and innovation Directorate, CNES
World population and World area, yields and production in cereals (including rice), 1980/81 to 2010/11, base 100 in 1980/81; Source: INRA from USDA/PSD and FAOSTAT data
Challenge : Feeding the planet
World
Population
Yields
World Cereals
Production
Cropland area
2/18 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
Monthly Wheat Prices 1960-2011($/Metric Ton) Source: World Bank
Nominal wheat price in US $/metric Ton
2008 Price hikes
Droughts:
Australia & Ukraine
2010/11 Price hikes
Drought: Russia
Landsat 1
Launched (1972)
1971/2’s price hike
Drought: Russia
Recent volatility of Agricultural Prices
Average Price
1972-2007: 150$
Average Price
2008-2012: 300$
Average Price
1960-1972: 75$
3/18 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
GEOGLAM : improve information on supply (GEO)
• Two initiatives to increase information availability, quality and transparency :
AMIS : improve information on markets (FAO)
G20 Agriculture Priority, Nov. 2011
AMIS & GEOGLAM
Trade
Demand
Stocks
Prices
Policies
Finance
AMIS
Supply
4/18 4/19
World Bank
UNITED NATIONS
HLTF Food Security
Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
Policy Framework for GEOGLAM: 2011 & 2016
Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
GEOGLAM is a « coordination programme », aiming at
- supporting, strengthening and articulating existing efforts
- developing capacities and awareness at national & global level
- disseminating information
GEOGLAM Objectives
• To strengthen the international community’s capacity
to produce & disseminate relevant, timely and accurate information & forecasts
on agricultural production at national, regional & global scales,
through reinforced use of Earth Observations
6/XX
GEOGLAM Achievements
1. Crop Monitor for AMIS
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS (1/2)
• Crop Monitor for AMIS: operational since Sept. 2013 ! – 39 institutions (17 countries + EC + 8 intern. org., leader: Univ. Maryland)
• A presentation of results with graphics and text (1/3) a. a global map for the 4 AMIS crops
End of August 2016 Crop Conditions
+ a global map, with drivers, for each crop
End of August 2016 Maize Conditions
8/19
– symbols to explain reasons for bad conditions
9
Achievements
GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS (2/2)
• A presentation of results with graphics and text (cont’)
c. 4 synthetic pie-charts – sectors proportional to countries average share of world production
Wheat
Maize
Soybean
– colors according to local crop conditions
Rice Production End October 15
Rice Export End October 15
(on Crop Monitor Website)
9/19
August 13th 2012
USA
Russia
Kazakhstan Ukraine
China
India
Canada
Non Cropland
Not shown
EO allows synoptic, quick detection of crop crises
NDVI tracks crop growth – can indicate condition
No change
Worse than
average
Better than
average
Becker-Reshef et al.
Average
normal year
NDVI Profile
on-going year
anomaly
NDVI = ------------------- Red - InfraRed
Red + InfraRed Use of NDVI, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index :
GEOGLAM became the 11th member of the AMIS Secretariat in 2016
• First time the international community comes together to produce operational crop
assessments with 40 contributing organizations & Ministries of Agriculture
• Strong collaboration between GEOGLAM and AMIS
• Bridging the gap between the Earth Observations and Economics communities
• Crop Monitor operational since 2013
Crop Monitor is an integral part of the AMIS Market Monitor
GEOGLAM Achievements
1. Crop Monitor for AMIS
2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM4EW)
• From February 2016, a new bulletin
– with GEOGLAM partners having Monitoring activities on Countries at Risk :
FAO (GIEWS), WFP (VAM), USA (FEWSNET), EU (JRC-FS), CN (CropWatch-FS)…
– 83 countries covered
14/19
First Crop Monitor for Early Warning, Feb. 2016 Consensus Map highlighting the poor conditions in Southern Africa for Maize
3 more drivers:
•Pest & Disease
•Socio-Political
•Delayed Onset
1 new
condition:
Failure
15/19
GEOGLAM Achievements
1. Crop Monitor for AMIS
2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning
3. Global Crop Monitoring
Achievements
Global Crop Monitoring
about 94% of world agricultural area…
17/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
GEOGLAM Achievements
1. Crop Monitor for AMIS
2. Crop Monitor for Early Warning
3. Global Crop Monitoring
4. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
SDG#2 “End Hunger”
GEOGLAM Crop Monitors & Economics
• Information Asymmetry (IA) theory
– IA Theory: study of decisions in transactions where one party has
more or better information than the other
– IA consequences : transactions going sometimes awry,
with in worst cases market failure
– From 1970, series of papers by Akerlof, by Spence and by Stiglitz
– 2001: Nobel Price in Economics awarded to Akerlof, Spence & Stiglitz
• GEOGLAM and Information (a)symmetry
– By producing & openly disseminating relevant, timely and accurate
information and forecasts on agricultural production…
… GEOGLAM contributes to an efficient functioning of markets.
19/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
SDG-2 “End Hunger”
Goal SDG-2 informed by Crop Monitors
By producing & openly disseminating relevant, timely and accurate
information and forecasts on agricultural production…
… GEOGLAM fully contributes to SDG Indicator 2.c
1. Global / Regional
System of Systems
main producer countries,
major commodities
2. National Capacity
Building
for agricultural monitoring
using earth observation
3. Monitoring
countries at risk
food security assessment
4. EO data coordination
5. Method improvement through R&D coordination
6. Data products and information dissemination
Global Crop
Monitor
(UMD)
Joint Experiment for
Crop Assessment &
Monitoring – JECAM
(AAFC – UCL)
Rangelands
& PastureProductivity
(RAPP-CSIRO)
CB projects in
Argentina, Mongolia, Pakistan, Ukraine…
Close links with
Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
EC FP7 SIGMA projectStimulating Innovation for
Global Monitoring of Agri-
culture and its Impact on
the Environment in support
of GEOGLAM (VITO)STARS (BM Gates)
Spurring a Transfor-
mation for Agricul-
ture through Remote
Sensing (ITC-UMD)
Asia-RiCE
reporting to
GCM (JAXA-
ASEAN)
Asia-RiCE
develop and
transfer of
methods
(JAXA-ASEAN)
GEONetCast
Satellite Broadcasting
Data services
prototypes developed/ testedNASA/CEOS SEO
ESA projects:
• SEN2-FOR-AGRI (UCL)
4 Agri. Products +
Software + 4 Use cases
• GEORICE (CESBIO)
Radar for Rice growth
monitoring
Crop Monitor
for
Early Warning
Mature / On going
Emerging or R&D
R&D Past / FinishingSelma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
GEOGLAM Activities
22/19
Ideas and Challenges ahead…
• GEOGLAM implementation at regional level is critical
– Regional networks share common priorities, confront common challenges: • Common cultivars, agricultural systems
• Can have common impacts of regional climate variability (e.g. El Nino)
• Challenges with data accessibility (computational infrastructure)
• Challenges with EO method adoption/use (capacity development)
• Market connections
• Strong capacity development focus – encouraging South-South transfer
• Idea: a Rangeland & Pasture Productivity (RAPP) Monitor for Early Warning – Towards a Crop & Rangeland Monitor for Early Warning CRM4EW
• R&D projects ending, new projects…a new era : Sentinels bu not only ..mutil-missions – Ended: STARS (Gates), Georice
– Ending soon: EC-SIGMA, ESA-Sen2-Agri, GeoRice…
– Just started: ESA-Food Security TEP (Thematic Exploitation Platform)
– Recent calls, results expected:
• China (MOST), USA (ROSES), France (TOSCA), EC (SFS-43)…
• Capacity Development activities – Setting up a Directory of existing CD material
– Objective: a set of e-learning modules, in different languages, accessible online…
23/19 Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017
Achievements Summary
• Strong and sustained G20 Policy Mandate
• Developed a OPEN Community of Practice engaged in achieving the GEO strategic
targets for agriculture
• Attained Flagship Status recognition from GEO Programme Board
• Developed two global Crop Monitors – for AMIS, for Early Warning
– Opportunities to tailor to national settings
• Established a network of R&D pilot sites across the globe for developing best practices (JECAM - Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment & Monitoring, www.jecam.org) – supplemented by
SIGMA, Sentinel-2-Agri, Asia-RiCE, Georice and BMGF STARS
• Developed Asia-RiCE, new regional system for Rice Crop Estimation & Monitoring
• Launch of 2 additional regional networks with strong capacity development component:
– GEOGLAM Latinoamerica
– AfriGAM
Selma Cherchali, Workshop Agriculture and Earth Observation July 5th , The Hague, 2017