Slide 1 The Paradoxes of Ageing – and how to overcome them Geoff Mulgan Business of Ageing, Toronto 30 April 2012
Sep 13, 2014
Slide 1
The Paradoxes of Ageing – and how to overcome them
Geoff Mulgan
Business of Ageing, Toronto 30 April 2012
Slide 2
Active ageing: a policy challenge or an innovation
challenge?
Is a salutogenic world possible?
Could we turn the participation trends around?
Michael Young (1915-2002) ‘probably the world’s most successful entrepreneur of social enterprises’
Pioneer of new thinking about age; creator of OU, U3A, Grandparents plus and many others...
With Peter Laslett, developed the idea of third and fourth ages – adding years not to the end of the life but the middle
The end of chronologism
The good news?
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Slide 8
• Employment between the ages of 55 and 69 has increased in recent years (2002/3 to 2008/9); amongst men (65-69 yrs) from 15.7% to 23.7% and amongst women (60-64 yrs) from 29.5% to 35.0%
• Over 800,000 65+ now employed, 3.0% of all workers; doubled in ten years
• Of 3,000 high growth start-ups - 25 or more employees – over a third founded by over-50s
• A big motivator for over-50s to set up a new business: the opportunity to work beyond official retirement age – 30%
• Over-65s the fastest growing age group for self-employment - last year number setting up in business increased by 48 per cent, from 224,000 to 332,000
– B&Q retail chain long-standing policy of recruiting older workers
– Sainsbury’s offer a 25 year window for retirement between ages 50 and 75. Within this window employees can reduce their working hours and claim part of their pension while continuing to accrue further pension entitlements
– Ernst and Young - ‘boomerangs’ – allows former employees and retirees to return to the organisation
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Slide 11 The Young Foundation 2010
John Browne: a salutary warning
Little or no narrowing of the morbidity gap
Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and EU–healthy life expectancy at birth, Great Britain 1981–2006
Source: ONS
The paradox
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Slide 14
The things older people say they want are made hard by our systems and structures:
•to be useful and recognised •to be helped at home when frail by a circle of support•to end life at home surrounded by loved ones
Innovation
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Health spend as % GDP versus adult mortality rate
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15
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40 60 80 100 120
Hea
lth
sp
end
as
% G
DP
Adult mortality rate
Source: OECD Health Data 2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
% g
row
th i
n s
har
e o
f G
DP
(p
.a.)
% improvement in mortality rate (p.a.)
Change in health spend share of GDP versus % improvement in adult mortality rate
• US Congressional Budget Office: health spending to rise from 16% of GDP in 2007 to 25% in 2025, 37% in 2050 and 49% in 2082.
• European Union ageing predicted to drive public spending up by 4 percentage points between 2004 and 2050.
• Purchasing power of 60+ generation in Germany nearly one third of total private consumption and will grow to over 40% by 2050
More deliberate innovation and experiment – not just in technologies
and clinical solutions
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Slide 20
prosthetics
Co-housing
Employment agencies
Brain gyms
implants
Home hospices
Timebanks Volunteer transport (ITN)
Care villages
Elder universities (U3A)
Specialised parks
Career switches (ALI)
Open innovation
Social innovation
Innovation in services
User innovation
Changing tools for innovation suitable for ageing
NESTA INVESTMENTS
SVI FUND BIG SOCIETY FINANCE FUND
RESEARCH & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
VENTURE INVESTING IMPACT INVESTMENT FUND
CATALYSING START UP SUPPORT
SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING MARKET
AGEING WELL
LEARNING & EMPLOYABILITY
NEEDS OF YOUNG PEOPLE
RESOURCE EFFICIENCY FOR INDIVIDUALS & COMMUNITIES
www.theamazings.org
Building capacity to develop and spread radical social innovations in local government – care/acute interface a priority
Innovation networks to speed mutual learning
Age Unlimited: supporting older social entrepreneurs in Scotland
From projects to systems …
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To get from here... ...to here...
...many things need to change in tandem
Transforming the system?
New technologies, products and services
New policies and regulations
Recalibrated markets
Behavioural change
Transforming the system? Whole System Demonstrators as promising but partial example …
New technologies, products and services
New policies and regulations
Recalibrated markets
Behavioural change
Transforming a system?
New technologies, products and services
New policies and regulations
Recalibrated markets
Behavioural change
Age Unlimited Scotland
People Powered Health
Social Impact Bonds
Happiness
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Wellbeing Mental attitudes to ageing have a significant impact on health.
Median Survival (years)
Those with :-positive attitude to ageing 22.5negative attitude to ageing 15.0
Gain 7.5
Impressive when compared to improvements in:-- Blood Pressure, Cholesterol:
Gain 4 years- Obesity, Smoking, Exercise: Gain 1-3 years
‘Longevity Increased by Positive Self-Perceptions of Ageing’, Becca R. Levy et al, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2002, Vol. 83, No. 2, 261-270
Resilience and well-being -2 -1 0 1 2
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Divorce Widowed Remained married
Cohen et al, 2003
High sociability associated with less cold symptoms
Peckham and the salutogenic workplace?
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What kind of economy allows us to thrive all our lives? What economy makes people a
renewable asset not a disposable one?
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