General situation of solar thermal energy - Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)

General situation of Solar Thermal Energy and prediction needs Eduardo Garcia Iglesias

Deputy Secretary-General of Protermosolar

Ciemat, 11-6-2013

Solar Energy

0

50

100

150

200

EolicaFV

STE

282

101

3

General situation of Solar Thermal

Energy

Additional 3 GW under construction

The ESTELA forecast

Technical Features

Local Economic

Development

Large deployment of STE power plants

CO2 free electrical generation system

Energy independence at affordable price

Sustainable future

Cost

The reasons for a brilliant STE future

The reasons for a brilliant STE future

1. Technical STE is the only dispatchable and grid-friendly -enhancing grid stability- renewable technology with potential enough to meet the electricity needs worldwide in order to achieve a carbon free generation system

2. Local Economic Development Local content of STE plants -and corresponding contribution to the GDP- will be one of the main drivers behind the supporting policies in many countries.

3. Competitiveness The cost of STE plants will show important reductions when approaching from the current 3 GW installed to the similar values of Wind (300 GW) and PV (100 GW)

1. Technical

The reasons for a brilliant STE future

In Operation (45 / 2054 MW) In Advanced Construction Stage(5 / 250 MW)

Málaga

Badajoz

Sevilla Almería

Alicante

Ciudad Real

Granada

Updated information: www.protermosolar.com

Cádiz

Córdoba

Murcia

Lérida

Cáceres

Some recent data on production in Spain

Source REE

Important milestones in July 2012:

Max. contribution 4,1% (July the 11th at 17:00) Max. daily contribution 3,2% (July the 15th)

Monthly production 2,3% (524 GWh in July)

Solar Thermal Electricity production in Spain. July 2012 MWh

Integrated Solar Field

Peak Power (No storage)

Base Load (Large storage)

Dispatchable (Medium size storage)

Opportunities and value of different STE technologies

Effi

cien

cy

Fresnel Parab. trough

Fresnel Parab. trough Steam Tower

Compressed Air Rec. Tower

Parab. trough

Molten salt tower Molten salt tower

Strong PV competition

Hybridization will enhance competitiveness

Parab. trough

2. Local Economic Development

The reasons for a brilliant STE future

The consulting firm Deloitte carried out the study “Macroeconomic impact in 2010 of the Solar Thermal Electricity Industry in Spain”, which can be downloaded from www.protermosolar.com In the 2010 study the basic element for calculating the impact on the GDP and on the other economic aspects was the number of plants under construction or operation along the different months of 2010. When calculating the impact in 2012 we have used the same ratios to all power plant under construction or in operation, along with another set of consistent hypotheses in line with those used by Deloitte in 2010.

Macroeconomic impact of the STE Industry in Spain in the year 2012

Main results of the macroeconomic impact in 2012

Installed capacity 1.970 MW

Contribution to the GDP 1.835 millions €

GDP in construction 958 millions €

GDP in O&M 877 millions €

Electricity generated 3.432 GWh

Equivalent premium (CNE) 927 millions €

Employment 17.816 Persons

Employment in construction 15.607 Persons

Employment in O&M 2.209 Persons

I+D investment 60 millions €

CO2 emissions avoided 2,4 t CO2

Savings in CO2 rights 17 millions €

Savings from replacing imported fossil fuels 131 millions €

Premiums: 927 M€

Savings in CO2 rights: 17 M€

Savings from replacing imported fossil fuels: 131 M€

Fiscal contribution

(Social Security, Corporate, Personal

and Local Taxes,) 772 M€

Contribution to GDP: 1835 M€

+ Leadership of the Spanish industry

+ Attraction of foreigner investment

+ Reduction of electricity pool price

+ Regional economical convergence

Comparison between premiums received and returns to the economy in 2012

Unemployment subsidies avoided: 132 M€

Supporting STE was a wise decision for Spain

Breakdown of GDP contribution by industry sector

From the first large plants connected in 2008 till the new ones Technology Development

Component manufacturing

Basic Engineering

Site Development

Project development

EPC

Detailed engineering

Construction

Operation and Maintenance

TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT 50% 80%

Past situation Current Capabilities Spanish Foreing

The natural evolution of local content

Industry localization in Spain for solar field components

Prerequisite: Stable program of some few hundred MW per year

Absorber tubes

Curved mirrors

Collector structure

Other direct effects on Industry

Reorientation of other mature industries: - Construction, civil works - Engineering of conventional power plants - Electricity Transmission Infrastructures - Galvanizers, …

Reinforcement of some industry sectors: - Piping and tanks - Heat exchangers - Boilers - Cabling - Telecommunication and control

Enlargement of supplier’s subsidiaries in the country: (Promotion, Maintenance, Stock Management, …)

Huge impact in auxiliary sectors - Cleaning, environmentalists, labs, … - Road transport - Training, …

Jobs in a typical STE plant in Spain (50 MW, 7,5 h. storage)

2214 one year equivalent jobs on the whole value chain (promotion, engineering, comp. manufact.,& construction) 47 direct jobs for operation and related services during the whole life span of the plant

Evolution of the contribution to GDP

1,650 2,084

1,835

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012

1,474 1,690 877

175 394

958

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012

GDP Construction GDP O&M

3. Competitiveness

The reasons for a brilliant STE future

What has been done so far (Stars mean achievements)

Source: Deloitte, Macroeconomic Impact of STE sector in Spain, 2010 Cost breakdown for a 50 MW plant with 7 h. storage

Cost reduction: Structure Tubes Mirrors

Performance increase

Cost reduction Cost = Performance increase

Cost =

The increase of financing costs has counteracted this effort to some extend

Cost references from current projects

30 c€/kWh

13 c$/kWh

25 c$/kWh

25 c€/kWh

30

c€/kWh

10

21 c$/kWh

14 c€/kWh

0

?

The “harmonization” model for STE costs

Actual PPA for a given project at a certain location under specific

support circumstances

Harmonized PPA for a “typical” project at

the same location without public

support

“Discount” factors

PPA or FiT duration

Concessional loans

Specific Financial conditions

Plant size

PPA escalation rate

Loan duration

Grants

DISCLAIMER: This attempt to provide reference prices must be considered approximated. There are many default values that might be not applicable to all projects as well as some country specific requirements.

“Typical” project 150 MW 4h storage 25 PPA No public financing and no escalation

Cost reduction estimations: The view from the Industry in 2012

Hypothesis: 30 GW will be built at that time. Some breakthroughs might accelerate this trend.

Source: ESTELA Position Paper

Stars corresponds to “normalized”

PPAs or FiTs in 2012 at their respective

locations in Spain, USA, India, Morocco

South Africa and Israel

Thank you for your attention www.protermosolar.com

[email protected]