Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 1999. 2:115–44 Copyright 1999 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT DEMOCRATIZATION AFTER TWENTY YEARS? Barbara Geddes Department of Political Science, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1472; e-mail: [email protected] KEY WO RDS: democratization, transition, regime, authoritarian, military ABSTRACT This essay synt hesizes the results of the large number of studies of late–20th- century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed coun- tries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions litera- ture, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in charac ter isticsof dif ferenttypes of authorita rian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed. INTRODUCTION As the twentieth century ends, elected officials govern more countries than at any previous time in human history. Transitions to democracy have occurred with surprising frequency during the past 20 years, and a great deal has been written on the subject by enthusiastic and intrigued observers. This essay sum- marizes what we have learned about such transitions and proposes a theory that makes sense of a number of apparently disparate findings. Since 1974, identified by Huntington (1991) as the beginning of the “third wave” of democra tization, 85 authoritarian regimes have ended. These transi- tions have resulted in 30 surviving and mostly quite stable democracies (not including democracies in some of the new states created as a consequence of 1094-2939/99/0616-0115$08.00 115 A n n u . R e v . P o l i t . S c i . 1 9 9 9 . 2 : 1 1 5 1 4 4 . D o w n l o a d e d f r o m w w w . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g A c c e s s p r o v i d e d b y U n i v e r s i t y o f A a r h u s o n 0 1 / 2 1 / 1 5 . F o r p e r s o n a l u s e o n l y .
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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8/16/2019 Geddes, Barbara (1999). “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years”
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