GEA KM18 Urbanization Urban Energy Systems Findings from the Global Energy Assessment Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available.

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Energy SystemsFindings from the Global Energy

Assessment

Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.orgsuggested citation:

Grubler, A., X. Bai, T. Buettner, S. Dhakal, D. J. Fisk, T. Ichinose, J. E. Keirstead,G. Sammer, D. Satterthwaite, N. B. Schulz, N. Shah, J. Steinberger and H. Weisz, 2012:

Chapter 18 - Urban Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1307-1400.

GEA KM18 Urbanization

3

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

ns 10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Population by Settlement Type/Size

1330

3403192

??

Mill

ion

s

10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Number ofagglomerationsin 2005

growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

GEA KM18 Urbanization

7

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)

n=132

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)

n=68

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Tokyo (90) Tokyo (95) Beijing (92) Beijing (97) Shanghai(92)

Shanghai(97)

Ener

gy U

se (E

J)

Embodied

Direct

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums

• Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,& data availability; Key: systems boundaries

• Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport)

• Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)

GEA KM18 Urbanization

13

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

China - Air Pollution (SO2) ExposureEast China (2000)Tg SO2 xmillion people

BeijingShanghai

Hong Kong 3.43.3 1.9

2.11.4

1.8

1.7

0.6

0.3

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2

WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand

GEA KM18 Urbanization

20

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages

22

814 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Medium tohigh density

GEA KM18 Urbanization

23

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

GEA KM18 Authors & ResourcesLead Authors:Xuemei Bai, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz

Contributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)

Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base

A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)