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ETHIOPIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 - MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS AND
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
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ETHIOPIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 –MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS AND
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Executive Summary
Hydropower Dominates Installed Capacity in Ethiopia
Hydropower is the dominant source of electricity in
Ethiopia, accounting for XX% of the total installed
capacity in 2012, down from XX% in 2011. This
decline was the result of renewable power
installations in the country. The share accounted
for by thermal power in 2012 amounted to XX%,
followed by renewable sources with XX%. The
government has been focusing on increasing both
hydropower and renewable installed capacity with
a view to meeting increasing domestic demand for
power, as well as increasing exports to neighboring
countries, which will help to pay for the cost of
construction for these power plants.
Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012
Large hydro
Oil (thermal)
Wind (onshore) Geothermal
Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013]
Continued Growth in Annual Power Consumption and Generation
Annual power consumption in Ethiopia increased
between 2000 and 2012 at a Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX% from XX Gigawatt
hours (GWh) to an estimated XX GWh in 2012.
Annual consumption in the country grew due to
increased household and industrial consumption.
Annual power generation also increased during
this period, at a CAGR of XX%, from XX GWh in
2000 to XX GWh in 2012.
Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (GWh), 2000–2012
2000 2006 2012
Tota
l gen
erat
ion
(GW
h) a
nd c
onsu
mpt
ion
(GW
h)
Annual consumption (GWh) Annual generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013]
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Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ 7
1.2 List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... 8
2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 9
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance .............................................................................................. 11
3 Ethiopia, Power Market, Snapshot .......................................................................................... 12
3.1 Ethiopia, Power Market, Macroeconomic Factors ............................................................... 12
3.2 Ethiopia, Power Market, Supply Security............................................................................. 15
3.3 Ethiopia, Power Market, Generation Infrastructure .............................................................. 16
3.4 Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission Infrastructure .......................................................... 16
3.5 Ethiopia, Power Market, Opportunities ................................................................................ 16
3.6 Ethiopia, Power Market, Challenges ................................................................................... 17
4 Ethiopia, Power Market, Market Analysis ................................................................................ 18
4.1 Ethiopia, Power Market, Supply Structure ........................................................................... 18
4.2 Ethiopia, Power Market, Key Players .................................................................................. 18
4.3 Ethiopia, Power Market, Demand Structure ........................................................................ 18
4.3.1 Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector, 2012 ....................................................... 21
5 Ethiopia, Power Market, Regulatory Overview ......................................................................... 22
5.1 Power Sector Reforms ........................................................................................................ 22
5.2 Growth and Transformation Plan......................................................................................... 23
5.3 Ethiopia, Power Market, Foreign Investment Scenario ........................................................ 24
5.4 Policies for Foreign Investment in the Power Market ........................................................... 25
6 Ethiopia, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview, 2000–2030 ............................... 26
6.1 Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity, Breakdown by Type of Power Plant ..................... 26
6.2 Ethiopia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2030 .......................................................................................................................... 27
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Table of Contents
6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2030 ............................................................................................................................... 30
6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2030.. 33
6.2.3 Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2030...................................................................................................................... 37
7 Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview ........................................... 41
7.1 Ethiopia, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview................................................... 41
7.2 Ethiopia, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview ...................................................... 43
7.2.1 New Domestic Transmission and Distribution Projects ................................................... 44
7.3 Ethiopia, Power Market, Grid Interconnection ..................................................................... 45
7.3.1 Electricity Import and Export Trends ............................................................................... 46
7.4 Ethiopia, Power Market, Electricity Trading ......................................................................... 46
8 Ethiopia, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Top Power Generating Company ................................................................................................................................. 47
8.1 Key Company in the Ethiopia Power Market – Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation .......... 47
8.1.1 Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, Company Overview ............................................. 47
8.1.2 Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, Business Description ........................................... 47
8.1.3 Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, SWOT Overview ................................................. 48
9 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 52
9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................... 52
9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................. 52
9.1.2 Installed Capacity ........................................................................................................... 52
9.1.3 Active Installed Capacity ................................................................................................. 52
9.1.4 Electricity Generation ...................................................................................................... 52
9.1.5 Electricity Consumption .................................................................................................. 52
9.1.6 Thermal Power Plant ...................................................................................................... 52
9.1.7 Hydropower Plant ........................................................................................................... 52
9.1.8 Nuclear Power ................................................................................................................ 53
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Table of Contents
9.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources........................................................................................ 53
9.2 Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................... 53
9.3 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................ 55
9.4 Coverage ............................................................................................................................ 56
9.5 GlobalData’s Methodology .................................................................................................. 56
9.6 Primary Research and Analysis .......................................................................................... 56
9.7 Secondary research and analysis ....................................................................................... 57
9.8 Contact Us .......................................................................................................................... 58
9.9 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................... 58
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Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Power Market, Ethiopia, GDP ($bn), Population (millions), and Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2000–2018...................................................................................................................... 14
Table 2: Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030 ............................... 20
Table 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012 ........................ 21
Table 4: Power Market, Ethiopia, GTP, Growth Rate of Real GDP (%), 2011 ............................................ 23
Table 5: National Economy, Ethiopia, Annual Foreign Direct Investment ($m), 2005–2011........................ 24
Table 6: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012 ....... 26
Table 7: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030...................................................................................................................... 29
Table 8: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed thermal Capacity (MW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030......................................................................................... 32
Table 9: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Active Hydropower Plants (MW), 2012 ..................................... 34
Table 10: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity (MW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 ................................................................................................... 36
Table 11: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Upcoming Wind Farms (MW), 2013–2030 ................................ 37
Table 12: Power Market, Ethiopia, Leading Upcoming Geothermal Power Plants (MW), 2013–2020 ........... 38
Table 13: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (MW) and Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 ...................................................................... 40
Table 14: Power Market, Ethiopia, Transmission Network Distance by Voltage Level (Ckm), 2000–2020 ... 42
Table 15: Power Market, Ethiopia, Distribution Network Distance (Ckm), 2000–2020 .................................. 43
Table 16: Power Market, Ethiopia, Planned Transmission Projects by Voltage Level (kV) and Distance (km), 2012 .................................................................................................................................. 45
Table 17: Power Market, Ethiopia, Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation, SWOT Analysis .......................... 48
Table 18: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 53
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Table of Contents
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Power Market, Ethiopia, GDP ($bn), Population (millions), and Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2000–2018 13
Figure 2: Power Market, Ethiopia, Annual Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2000–2030 19
Figure 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012 21
Figure 4: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2012 26
Figure 5: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 28
Figure 6: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed thermal Capacity (MW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 31
Figure 7: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Hydro Capacity (MW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 35
Figure 8: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity (MW) and Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030 39
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Introduction
2 Introduction
Ethiopia has begun to liberalize its economy and has removed a number of restrictive or
discriminatory regulations related to tax, credit, foreign trade and the private sector in general. As a
result of these changes, private and foreign companies are no longer required to pay unfavorable
taxes or apply for additional licenses, and they do not face discriminatory import or export policies,
or inequitable tariff or non-tariff barriers. However, despite these changes, the Ethiopian
government remains heavily involved in the economy.
Ethiopia is a member of various international organizations, such as the East African Community
(EAC), East African Power Pool (EAPP), African Development Bank Group (AfDB), African,
Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States (ACP), African Union (AU), Common Market for Eastern
and Southern Africa (COMESA), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Group of XX (G24),
Group of XX (G77), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD), International Labor Organization (ILO), International Maritime Organization
(IMO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Ethiopia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) amounted to an estimated $XX billion in 2012, of which
agriculture accounted for almost XX. In 2011, the country’s GDP amounted to $XX billion, of which
agriculture accounted for XX%. Coffee is the most important agricultural product exported from the
country. However, Ethiopia suffers from a trade deficit, with exports amounting to at an estimated
$XX billion in 2012 and imports amounting to an estimated $XX billion. In 2011, exports and
imports amounted to $XX billion and $XX billion, respectively. In addition, inflation fell in June 2009
to around XX% and XX% in August 2010, but increased to XX% in December 2010, an estimated
XX% in 2011, and an estimated XX% in 2012 (IMF, 2013; CIA, 2013).
In addition to agricultural produce, Ethiopia also exports natural resources, such as gold, marble,
limestone, and small amounts of tantalum. In the past, Ethiopia has been characterized by
prolonged periods of drought and agricultural failures, which resulted in a large number of deaths
from starvation in the country’s population. The recent introduction of socio-economic measures by
the Ethiopian government, with help from foreign donors, and also the construction of large dams in
the country, has helped to strengthen agriculture in the country and reduce deaths. The country
has also succeeded in attracting foreign investment in the areas of textiles, leather, commercial
agriculture and manufacturing, which is creating an increased demand for power.
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Introduction
Ethiopia also possesses abundant hydro resources and the majority of its power generation is
derived from hydropower. However, Ethiopia is totally dependent on imports for oil. As a landlocked
country, Ethiopia can access maritime trade through the port of Djibouti. The country also
possesses abundant wind and solar potential and has plans to utilize this potential in order to meet
domestic and international demand for power, which is increasing rapidly.
The Ethiopian power market is divided into the Inter-Connected System (ICS) and the Self-
Contained System (SCS). The ICS is the grid-connected section of the market, which is served
exclusively by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo), a state-owned utility company.
The SCS is an off-grid system and is primarily served by EEPCo, alongside other private
organizations such as charitable missionary trusts and local municipalities.
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Introduction
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance
The report begins with an executive summary that captures key growth trends in the Ethiopian
power market.
Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters in the country that affect its power
sector as well as key points about the Ethiopian power market.
Chapter four provides a power market analysis for Ethiopia.
Chapter five provides details of the regulatory scenario of the power market and inward foreign
investment scenario in the country.
Chapter six provides information on the country’s cumulative installed capacity and annual
generation trends as a whole and also split according to individual sources of generation.
Chapter seven describes the power transmission and distribution infrastructure of the country
and includes information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also
covers details on electricity import and export, and upcoming grid related projects in the
country.
Chapter eight describes the competitive landscape of the country’s power market, with a
complete description and Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis
for the leading companies
Note: all 2012 market numbers provided in the report are estimates except where actual data was
available.
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Ethiopia, Power Market, Market Analysis
4.3.1 Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector, 2012
The industrial sector is estimated to have been the largest power consuming sector in Ethiopia in
2012 with a share of XX%. Services are estimated to have accounted for XX% of total power
consumption in 2012, bringing the total share held by these two sectors to XX%. The household
sector accounted for an estimated XX% share of total electricity consumption in 2012 followed by
other smaller sectors with XX%.
Figure 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012
Industry
Services
Households
Others sectors
Source: GlobalData
Table 3: Power Market, Ethiopia, Breakdown of Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2012
Sector Percentage (%)
Industry
Services
Households
Others sectors
Source: GlobalData
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Capacity and Generation Overview, 2000–2030
6.2 Ethiopia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2030
Ethiopia’s cumulative installed capacity increased from XX MW in 2000 to XX MW in 2012 at a
CAGR of XX%. From 2013 to 2030, cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase from XX
MW to XX MW at a CAGR of XX%.
A major share of Ethiopia’s installed capacity is accounted for by hydropower resources. Ethiopia
has been focusing on the development of hydropower, with a view to meeting its own rapidly
increasing domestic demand, as well as increasing exports to neighboring nations. However, the
government is concerned about the excessive focus on hydropower and has therefore also been
concentrating on the development of renewable sources, specifically wind and geothermal.
Nevertheless, hydropower is expected to continue to be a major source of power in the country
from 2013 to 2030, increasing at a CAGR of XX%. Renewable power is expected to increase at a
CAGR of XX%.
Annual power generation in the country amounted to XX GWh in 2000, increasing to XX GWh in
2012 at a CAGR of XX%. Annual power generation is expected to increase from XX GWh in 2013
to XX GWh in 2030 at a CAGR of XX%.
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Capacity and Generation Overview, 2000–2030
Figure 5: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Ann
ual g
ener
atio
n (G
Wh)
Cum
ulat
ive
inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (M
W)
Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Annual generation (GWh)
Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013]
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ETHIOPIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 –MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS AND
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Capacity and Generation Overview, 2000–2030
Table 7: Power Market, Ethiopia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000–2030
Year Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Annual generation (GWh)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: GlobalData, Power eTrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: June 18, 2013]
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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Appendix
9 Appendix
9.1 Market Definitions
9.1.1 Power
The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and
often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). This is also known as "real" or "active"
power.
9.1.2 Installed Capacity
Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity, as stated by the manufacturer, or
the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in MW
on a nameplate affixed to the generator.
9.1.3 Active Installed Capacity
Active installed capacity refers to the component of electric power that actually performs work. It is
given kW or MW.
9.1.4 Electricity Generation
Electricity generation is something producing electric energy by transforming other forms of energy.
This term also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours
(GWh).
9.1.5 Electricity Consumption
Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports, minus
transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in GWh.
9.1.6 Thermal Power Plant
This is a plant where the turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.
9.1.7 Hydropower Plant
This is a plant where the turbine generators are driven by falling water.
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Appendix
9.1.8 Nuclear Power
This is the electricity generated by the use of thermal energy, released from the fission of nuclear
fuel in a reactor.
9.1.9 Renewable Energy Resources
These are naturally replenishing energy resources that are limited in the amount of energy that is
available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar and wind energy are all
renewable resources.
9.2 Abbreviations
Table 18: Abbreviations ACP African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States
AfDB African Development Bank Group
ARGeo African Rift Geothermal Development Program
AU African Union
CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Ckm Circuit kilometer
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
DA Double Curvature
EAC East African Community
EAPP East African Power Pool
EEA Ethiopian Energy Agency
EEPCo Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation
ER Rock Fill
ETSIP Electricity Transmission System Improvement Project
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
G24 Group of 24
G77 Group of 77
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GTP Growth and Transformation Plan
GWh Gigawatt Hour
ICS Inter-Connected System
ICSID International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development
IFC International Finance Corporation
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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Appendix
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMO International Maritime Organization
JV Joint Venture
kV Kilo Volt
kW Kilowatt
kWh Kilowatt Hour
MDG Millenium Development Goal
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
MW Megawatt
NBI Nile Basin Initiative
PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty
PV Photovoltaic
PV Photovoltaic
RCC Roller Compact Concrete
RMF Risk Mitigation Fund
SCS Self-Contained System
SDPRP Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program
T&D Transmission and Distribution
TE Earth Fill
UEAP Universal Electricity Access Program
V Volt
WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization
Source: GlobalData
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ETHIOPIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 –MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS AND
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Appendix
9.3 Bibliography
CIA (2013). Ethiopia: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html [Accessed on: June 17,
2013]
EEPCo (2013). ELECTRICITY TSIP. Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation. Available from:
http://www.eepco.gov.et/project.php?pid=11&pcatid=3 [Accessed on: June 18, 2013]
IMF, 2013. World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013 [database]. Available at:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/download.aspx [Accessed on: June
17, 2013]
MoFED (2012). Growth and Transformation Plan (2010/11-2014/15), Annual Progress Report
for F.Y. 2010/11. Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, June 2012. Available from:
http://www.mofed.gov.et/English/Resources/Documents/GTP%20Annual%20progress%20Rep
ort%20%282010-11%29.pdf
Precise Consult International, LLC (2013). EEPCo Starts Power Export to Sudan. Precise
Consult International, LLC. Available from:
http://www.ethiopiainvestor.com/index.php?view=article&catid=1%3Alatest-
news&id=3791%3Aeepco-starts-power-export-to-sudan-&option=com_content [Accessed on:
June 19, 2013]
UNCTAD, 2013. Inward and outward foreign direct investment flows, annual, 1970-2012
[database]. Available from:
http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=88 [Accessed on: June 17,
2013].
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Appendix
9.4 Coverage
This report gives detailed information on the country’s power market. It examines the country’s
power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and
consumption up to 2030. The report provides insights on the market’s regulatory structure, import
and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects.
9.5 GlobalData’s Methodology
GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with
backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced
statistical expertise.
GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and
the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).
The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports.
9.6 Primary Research and Analysis
Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants
to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand
information on industry trends.
The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers,
industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants
include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business
development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials,
and industry spokespeople.
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Appendix
9.7 Secondary research and analysis
The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of
secondary resources including but not limited to:
Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical
databases
Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations
Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature
GlobalData’s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant
Database and Transmission and Distribution Database.
Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the
country’s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following:
The country’s macroeconomic scenario
Government regulations, policies and targets
Government and private sector investments
Contract and deal announcements
Utility expansion plans
The sector’s historic track record
Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,
annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry
associations.
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Appendix
9.8 Contact Us
If you have any queries about this report or would like further information, please contact us.
North America: +1 646 395 5460
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9.9 Disclaimer
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No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
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