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US Economic Indicators:GDP Expansion Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 28, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
[email protected]
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
[email protected]
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Real GDP 3Consumer Spending 4Durable Goods Consumption
5-6Nondurable Goods Consumption 7-8Services Consumption 9-12Capital
Spending 13-14Equipment 15-16Intellectural Property Products
17-18Residential Investment & Autos 19Government Spending
20Federal Government Spending 21State & Local Government
Spending 22
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (66.4)1970 (38.3)1975 (48.9)1982 (51.8)1991 (46.1)2001
(23.5)2009 (24.1)
REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month
recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (83.1)1970 (50.3)1975 (53.5)1982 (59.0)1991 (55.1)2001
(27.3)2009 (30.8)
REAL GDP EX GOVERNMENT(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
Real GDP
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (70.0)1970 (39.9)1975 (51.6)1982 (50.5)1991 (52.7)2001
(23.8)2009 (24.8)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(percent changes from
business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (69.3)1970 (32.4)1975 (56.2)1982 (49.3)1991 (66.9)2001
(27.5)2009 (53.2)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:GOODS(percent changes
from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
Consumer Spending
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (138.5)1970 (57.7)1975 (108.3)1982 (90.8)1991 (136.1)2001
(48.1)2009 (112.6)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:DURABLE GOODS(percent
changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (149.5)1970 (67.6)1975 (138.7)1982 (66.7)1991 (94.8)2001
(-5.2)2009 (71.9)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:MOTOR VEHICLES &
PARTS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
Durable Goods Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (91.7)1970 (34.7)1975 (61.3)1982 (65.3)1991 (94.7)2001
(38.8)2009 (104.5)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FURNISHINGS & DURABLE
HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (245.8)1970 (81.2)1975 (150.0)1982 (222.5)1991 (359.0)2001
(168.2)2009 (212.3)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:RECREATIONAL GOODS &
VEHICLES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
Durable Goods Consumption
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (48.2)1970 (22.7)1975 (36.4)1982 (32.8)1991 (37.5)2001
(18.0)2009 (30.5)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:NONDURABLE GOODS(percent
changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (55.1)1970 (68.1)1975 (95.4)1982 (62.8)1991 (60.1)2001
(27.3)2009 (31.8)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:CLOTHING &
SHOES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
Nondurable Goods Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (35.6)1970 (9.5)1975 (22.9)1982 (17.4)1991 (16.6)2001
(14.4)2009 (27.4)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FOOD & BEVERAGES
PURCHASED FOR OFF-PREMISE CONSUMPTION(percent changes from business
cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (58.0)1970 (3.5)1975 (8.5)1982 (27.5)1991 (20.4)2001
(-5.3)2009 (-9.8)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:GASOLINE, FURE OIL, &
OTHER ENERGY GOODS(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Nondurable Goods Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (70.5)1970 (46.9)1975 (48.5)1982 (51.0)1991 (45.2)2001
(21.9)2009 (13.3)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:SERVICES(percent changes
from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (116.2)1970 (65.0)1975 (44.6)1982 (32.0)1991 (37.5)2001
(31.5)2009 (24.2)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:MEDICAL CARE
SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
Services Consumption
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (73.0)1970 (48.4)1975 (38.5)1982 (37.6)1991 (34.0)2001
(17.9)2009 (14.6)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:HOUSING &
UTILITIES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (75.7)1970 (18.1)1975 (49.6)1982 (74.3)1991 (66.4)2001
(6.4)2009 (5.5)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:TRANSPORTATION
SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Services Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (68.2)1970 (94.0)1975 (94.0)1982 (90.2)1991 (54.3)2001
(27.5)2009 (-16.6)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:RECREATION
SERVICES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (51.0)1970 (38.8)1975 (35.3)1982 (37.6)1991 (24.0)2001
(25.4)2009 (1.9)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FOOD SERVICES &
ACCOMMODATIONS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Services Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (58.6)1970 (64.5)1975 (73.7)1982 (81.1)1991 (73.2)2001
(16.6)2009 (6.9)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES:FINANCIAL SERVICES &
INSURANCE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
Services Consumption
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (105.3)1970 (76.8)1975 (79.4)1982 (59.9)1991 (90.1)2001
(42.4)2009 (62.2)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:TOTAL(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month
recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (51.0)1970 (53.8)1975 (39.6)1982 (-11.3)1991 (-2.1)2001
(-11.0)2009 (-8.0)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:STRUCTURES(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
Capital Spending
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (147.4)1970 (82.1)1975 (87.5)1982 (89.7)1991 (133.6)2001
(63.1)2009 (107.1)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (109.4)1970 (107.7)1975 (153.6)1982 (131.2)1991 (119.5)2001
(63.1)2009 (75.7)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY PRODUCTS(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
Capital Spending
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (357.1)1970 (403.8)1975 (430.2)1982 (234.1)1991 (378.2)2001
(158.2)2009 (144.3)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INFORMATION
PROCESSING EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (97.8)1970 (22.8)1975 (16.9)1982 (32.7)1991 (35.8)2001
(13.7)2009 (52.7)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:INDUSTRIAL
EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
Equipment
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-120
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
-120
-70
-20
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (139.9)1970 (47.5)1975 (53.1)1982 (58.4)1991 (69.0)2001
(30.6)2009 (293.7)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (112.4)1970 (22.6)1975 (9.9)1982 (31.2)1991 (63.1)2001
(35.7)2009 (55.8)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:OTHER
EQUIPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
Equipment
Page 16 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1970 (428.6)1975 (421.4)1982 (494.5)1991 (329.8)2001 (128.9)2009
(131.9)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:SOFTWARE(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (116.3)1970 (72.7)1975 (106.0)1982 (72.6)1991 (59.7)2001
(33.5)2009 (50.9)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:RESEARCH
& DEVELOPMENT(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
Intellectural Property Products
Page 17 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (13.4)1970 (80.1)1975 (136.1)1982 (61.5)1991 (64.7)2001
(23.3)2009 (17.2)
PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL
GDP:ENTERTAINMENT, LITERARY, & ARTISTIC ORIGINALS(percent
changes from business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
Intellectural Property Products
Page 18 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (93.0)1970 (-16.1)1975 (83.0)1982 (99.1)1991 (87.3)2001
(-25.6)2009 (82.4)
RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(percent changes from
business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2009
Data updated thru Q4-2020
1961 (34.2)1970 (99.5)1975 (113.6)1982 (107.7)1991 (113.8)2001
(27.0)2009 (141.4)
MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT IN REAL GDP(percent changes from business
cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
Residential Investment & Autos
Page 19 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (34.9)1970 (12.6)1975 (37.6)1982 (31.9)1991 (20.2)2001
(9.5)2009 (0.1)
REAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from business cycle
troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
0
20
40
60
-20
0
20
40
60
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (13.0)1970 (7.0)1975 (55.9)1982 (17.4)1991 (-1.8)2001
(33.8)2009 (3.4)
REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from business
cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
Government Spending
Page 20 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (-6.6)1970 (-4.1)1975 (64.5)1982 (12.0)1991 (-15.2)2001
(34.1)2009 (-1.9)
REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING:DEFENSE(percent changes from
business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (117.1)1970 (41.1)1975 (35.1)1982 (29.6)1991 (32.2)2001
(33.5)2009 (13.2)
REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING:NONDEFENSE(percent changes from
business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
Federal Government Spending
Page 21 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
III IV I II III2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2009
Current data updated thru: Q4-2020
1961 (65.2)1970 (18.8)1975 (22.6)1982 (44.1)1991 (38.4)2001
(-3.0)2009 (-2.0)
REAL STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING(percent changes from
business cycle troughs*)
* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.Source: US Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
State & Local Government Spending
Page 22 / January 28, 2021 / GDP Expansion Cycles
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