GDI 12 Impact Defense

8/12/2019 GDI 12 Impact Defense

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Impact D


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China

China forces are purely defensive generals comments

Wong and Anseld 11(Edward and Jonathon, stafs,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/world/asia/01china.html!r"2, dw: #$#1$2011,da: %$&$2011, lido't stressed that Chinas military buildup was purely defensive a positionChinese leaders have long ta!en" #he paper had more detail thanprevious editions on Chinas e$orts to establish condence%buildingmeasures with foreign militaries. n the past year, perceptions )y *orei+n contries o*Chinas military +rowth and o* a more asserti-e *orei+n policy ha-e reslted in diplomatic discord and discom*ort,

particlarly )etween China and the nited tates. China attaches importance to itsmilitary relationship with the &nited 'tates and has made ongoing

e$orts towards building a sound military relationship enior Col. en+3anshen+ said at a news con*erence on hrsday. #he Chinese military is now ta!ingsteps to advance e(changes with the &"'" military this year")5t theresno denyin+ that in de-elopin+ military relations, we still *ace di6clties and challen+es, Colonel en+ added.

China doesnt have the capabilities to have a war and relatschec!

*rueher +,(Joseph, Commander in chie* o* 7aci8c Command, inter-iewed, J9,dw: ;tmn/


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China wont go to war they have too much at ris! history

4ellyer +(Aarcs, worBed *or o, http://www.de*ence.+o-.a/?etwc/docs/p)licationsD202010/7)lctns!00#10!stheE@pansiono*Chinese.pd*, da: %$&$2011, lido'China nder the Commnist 7arty has not )een a paci8st power and has )een willin+ to se *orce e-en )eyond its

)orders.10 Fe-ertheless, there is little evidence to suggest that China isdeveloping its military power in order to use it against itsneighbours 6 with the potential e(ception of #aiwan noted earlier"China has been very active in presenting a peaceful image of itselfto the world. 7resident 4u 2intao has used the term 7harmonious worldto describe Chinas model of international relations and 3heng/i0ian developed the term 7peaceful rise to describe Chinasdevelopment.11 he latest Chinese de*ence ha'. ;s a political instrment, nclear weapons are to )e tili>ed mainly at the le-elo* +rand strate+y, not as a winnin+ tool in military operations. #he militaryvalue of nuclear weapons lies only in its deterrent e$ect againstnuclear attac!" #he o@cially declared missions of the 'econdArtillery orce are twofoldB #o deter the use of nuclear weaponsagainst China and #o launch an e$ective nuclear counter%attac! inthe case of such an attac!.L4M Fo distinction has )een made in cate+ori>in+ nclear operations. ;


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nclear striBe a+ainst ChinaNwhether condcted at strate+ic, operational or tactical le-el, with hi+h or low yieldwarheads, or deadly or tolera)le lethalityNis percei-ed as the tmost *orm o* war*are in Chinese warcate+ori>ation, which mst )e responded strate+ically. n Chinese strate+ic literatre, we only see the discssion onhow to deter a nclear war *rom happenin+, on how to pre-ent a con-entional conOict *rom escalatin+ into anclear war, and how to retaliate a*ter sferin+ a nclear attacBN)t ne-er how to win a nclear war. he

primary Chinese perception is that nuclear wars are not to be wonbut to be prevented" etaliatoryather than DenialDeterrenceLM

.any Chinese cite Deng Eiaoping when e(plaining ChinaFs nuclearthin!ing" 4e e(plained in a meeting with foreigners in 1+,GB HWhileyou have some deterrence force we also have some but we donFtwant much" It will do 0ust to possess it" #hings li!e strategicweapons and deterrence forces are there to scare others" #hey mustnot be used rst" /ut our possession will have some e$ect" #helimited possession of nuclear weapons itself e(ert some pressure" Itremains our position that we will develop a little Jnuclear weaponsK"/ut the development will be limited.


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China wont use nu!es the nu!es are 0ust for deterrencee$ects

;ational Intelligence Council ++(http://www.*as.or+/irp/nic/china!wmd.html,

dw: 11$$1&&&, da: %$&$2011, lido'hird, we nd that the evolution over time of ChinaFs doctrine andforce structure is the story of trying to close the gap between realcapability,on the one hand, and what one might call Haspirational doctrinePon the other. n the nited tates, the appropriate analo+ wold )e a comparison o* crrent operational doctrine, as otlined in the Joint octrine p)lications series, with an aspirational doctrine, sch asJoint Rision 2010. n the Chinese case, the discontinity )etween reality and aspiration is o* times re*erred to as the Pcapa)ilities$doctrine +ap.P ;t the present sta+e in the econd ;rtilleryKs

moderni>ation, China is nearing an historic convergence between doctrine andcapability allowing it to increasingly achieve a degree of credibleminimal deterrence vis%L%vis the continental &nited 'tates%$aconvergence of its doctrine and capability it has not condentlypossessed since the weaponi>ation of ChinaFs nuclear program inthe mid%1+M


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already pointing to resilient growth and policy shifting more rmly intosupportive mode"

;o solvency% government reform !ey

Einhua 1O JChinese news agency 5'lowing economy promptscalls for reforms)httpBTTwww"chinadaily"com"cnTbusinessTO


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PChina will see its growthease to %$= percent )y 2020 and slow further to around ?percent after O


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deterioration of the Chinese economy can only continue. #he inevitablechain reaction will accelerate and China will face its economic end game"o +a+e how ?st how *ar the health o* ChinaKs economy has deteriorated, loo! no further than howaggressive ChinaFs central ban! % the 7eopleKs 5anB o* China (75C' $ has been actingof late"n th Jly, the 5anB ct )enchmarB interest rates *or the second time in less than a month. necem)er 2011, the 75C ct the reser-e reTirement ratio (UUU' )y 0 )asis points ()p', to 21D, *ollowed )y a

*rther 0 )p ct in 9e)rary and another 0 )p ct in Aay $ to the crrent 20D. ;part *rom all the rate cts, the*/-Calso made its biggest in0ection of funds into the money mar!ets innearly si( months in0ecting a net OO? billion yuan(W#4. )illion' throughthere-erse$reprchase operations (repoK last wee!, which *ollowed a com)ined in?ection o* 2&1 )illion yan inthe pre-ios *or weeBs.

;o solvency% growth is decelerating

Woo and Wagner 1O JDee economics lecturer at /ei0ing oyal'chool Daniel C:- of Country is! 'olutions 5Chinas ComingQreat Deleveraging) httpBTTwww"hu@ngtonpost"comTdee%

wooTchina%economy%deleveragingUbU1MSR+?1"htmlK VQ4China canFt rely on e(cessive investment to propel its growth for muchlonger. s demand$led +rowth the answer n short, no. ChinaFs e(port growth is clearlydecelerating, with the E and on the ed+e o* a do)le$dip recession, and mch o* the rest o* the worldrelyin+ on China *or their own e@port$led +rowth. he E and are nliBely to )once )acB any time soon, and the*ortnes o* many natral resorce e@portin+ contries ltimately depend on China. 5ra>il, *or e@ample, has )ecomehi+hly dependent on China *or the ma?ority o* its iron ore e@ports. ;ccordin+ to a recent 5 i scheme of investment growth andthe e(port growth both collapsing whatFs left for ChinaContrary to what manychoose to )elie-e, ChinaFs trade surplus is not caused by Chinese consumersFhigh saving rate but has much to do with their deteriorating disposableincomes which far lag behind QD* growth and in8ation. ;ccordin+ to the ;ll China9ederation o* rade nions (;C9', worBersK wa+es to 7 ratio ha-e +one down *or 22 consecti-e years, since1&=#. t +oes withot sayin+ that the consmption to 7 ratio has )een shrinBin+ all the while. n the meantime,the a++re+ate sa-in+s rate has increased )y 1D, *rom #QD in 1&&Q to 1D in 200%. 5t Chinese consmers ha-enot ti+htenin+ their prse strin+s. ;ccordin+ to the e-elopment Uesearch Center o* the tate ConcilKs report, thatincrease is mainly dri-en )y +o-ernment and corporate spendin+ $ not )y the hoseholds. 9or the past 11 years, theVosehold a-in+ Uate has only increased *rom 1&D to 22D. he +o-ernment and corporate sa-in+ rate has

increased *rom 1%D to 22D, which acconts *or nearly =0D o* the increase in ;++re+ate a-in+s Uate. or thepast decade the governmentFs scal income has been growing faster thanQD* or 4ousehold Income"n 200&, the 8scal income was Q== )illion yan, and achie-ed an annal+rowth o* 11.%D, while 7 +rowth was =.%D, r)an hosehold disposa)le income +rowth was =.=D and

a+ricltre hosehold disposa)le income +rowth was =.2D. #he state and corporations haveta!en too much out of national income and therefore continue to wea!enconsumers rather than empower them"


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iseaseFo impact I diseases ha-e e-ol-ed to )e less dan+eros

Achenbach GJJoel ;chen)ach, ed people protected )y nets and screens canKt easily spread the parasite, soe-oltion wold *a-or *orms that let in*ected people walB arond and +et )itten )y mosTitoes.

Disease cant cause e(tinction

Qladwell ++LAalcolm staf writer *or the Few 3orBer and )est sellin+ athor, 1&&&.Epidemics: pposin+ Riewpoints, 1&&&, p. 2&.p. #1$#2M

:very infectious agent that has ever plagued humanity has had toadapt a specic strategy but every strategy carries a correspondingcost and this ma!es human counterattac! possible".alaria isvicious and deadly but it relies on mos9uitoesto spread *rom one hman to thene@t, which means that drainin+ swamps and pttin+ p mosTito nettin+ can all ht halt endemic malaria.

'mallpo( is e(traordinarily durable remaining infectious in theenvironment for years but its very durability its essential rigidity iswhat ma!es it one of the easiest microbes to create a vaccineagainst" AID' is almost invariably lethal because it attac!s the bodyat its point of great vulnerability that is the immune system)t thefact that it targets blood cells is what ma!es it so relativelyuninfectious" Xiruses are not superhuman. cold +o on, )t the point is o)-ios.Any microbe capable of wiping us all out would have to be


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everything at onceB as contagious as 8ue as durable as the cold aslethal as :bola as stealthy as 4IX and so doggedly resistant tomutation that it would stay deadly over the course of a longepidemic"5t -irses are not, well, sperhman" #hey cannot do everything atonce" It is one of the ironies of the analysiso* alarmists sch as 7reston that they areall too willin+ to point ot the limitations o* hman )ein+s, )t they ne+lect to point ot the limitations o*microscopic li*e *orms.

4uman adaptation

Qladwell +?Lhe Few Uep)lic (Aalcom, e@cerpted in Epidemics: pposin+ Riewpoints, Jly 1%th and24th, 1&&&, p. 2&' Mn 7la+es and 7eoples, which appeared in 1&%%.


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Democracy


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Democracy &p

Democracy high now% revolutions in the Arab world and ;orthAfrica

riedman 11(r. eor+e, Chie* E@ecti-e 6cer and *onder o* U;9U, Aarch 21,http://www.strat*or.com/weeBly/20110#21$li)ya$west$narrati-e$democracy %/&/11'

o nderstand this lo+ic, it is essential to )e+in )y considerin+ recent events in ;orth Africaand the Arab worldand the manner in which


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AOB Democracy 'olves War

Democracy doesnt prevent wars% Israel and India prove

'haw #' could e(ert such power only againstconti+os states or at least near neighbors. 9rthermore, the willin+ness o* states to 8+ht dependsinlar+e part on isses o-er which they ha-e conOicts o* interest. #erritorial disputes(o-er )orders,or ri+hts o* ethnic +rops whose presence is common to )oth' are rare in the absence ofpro(imity.24 ince relati-ely *ew o* the democracies )ordered each other in the 1&20s and 1s, a Snot srprisin+ that they +enerally a-oided war with each other. hs the empirical fact oflittle or no war between democracies up to this time cold )eobscured by the predominance of authoritarian states in the


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international system,and the fre9uent wars involving one or moresuchathoritarianstates" ne cold still see the international system as not only anarchic, )t in principlethreatenin+ the Pwar o* all a+ainst all.P

Democracies still vote for war

#he :conomist +?(Pemocracies and war,P p. 1%$1=, http://*aclty.washin+ton.ed/caporaso/corses/20#/readin+s/economist!emocracies!and!war.pd*, %/&/11'

; second pro)lem with Vants argument, at least when tested a+ainst modern societies withni-ersal sfra+e, is that it ris!s imputing too much gentleness of spirit tothe average voter. re, people tend to recoil at the prospect ofshedding their own blood, which is why the 8ercest and earliest critics o* wars tend to )epeople o* an a+e to )e conscripted, and sometimes ser-in+ soldiersNas happened when ;merica *o+ht in

Rietnam, and srael *o+ht in Se)anon in 1&=2. /uteven otherwise !ind%heartedciti>ens may not worry much when someone from another part ofthe country goes o$ to ght especially if that other person hasvolunteered to do so"

;o war now because democracies have a common enemy

Walt ++(te-en A., 7ro*essor o* 7olitical cience, Janary/9e)rary,http://www.*orei+nafairs.com/articles/4Q41/stephen$m$walt/ne-er$say$ne-er$wish*l$thinBin+$on$democracy$and$warpa+e"#, %/=/11'his )rin+s s to a 8nal +ap in


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; deeper worry a)ot the democracies dont 8+ht one another ar+ment is that it may owe mch o* its *orceto the relati-e pacity o* democracies in the past. Aost simply, one wold e@pect *ewer democracies to )e

in-ol-ed in *ewer wars. o the e@tent that democracies were more thinly spreadthey would have fewer shared borders over which to ght. ;nd,since some o* the )i++est con8ictso* the past centry have been ideologicalas mshas territorial, liberal countries have almost by denition found

themselves alliesin the str++les a+ainst *ascism and commnism. emocracies ha-e ths tendednot to 8+ht each other lately )ecase they ha-e )een strate+ic allies in partNscore one *or the peace$thro+h$

democracy theoristsN)ecase they are democracies. ;+ain, however this does not meandemocracies will always be allies" In the absence of acommnist or *ascistbloc! of enemies there will be less need for democracies tohuddle together for survival"


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AOB Democracy 'olves :verything

iberal democracies are !ey to solve for their impacts

Ayn Vey ,()lo+, ;+st 2&, http://aynrBey.)lo+spot.com/200=/0=/democracy$is$not$panacea.html,%/&/11'

*eople seem to thin! that HdemocracyH automatically meansHliberal democracyH"hey *or+et that PdemocracyP is the *orm, and that Pli)eralP is the *nction.It is the HliberalH in Hliberal democracyH that provides therestrained government instituted to protect therights o* the people. nterms o* respectin+ the ri+hts o* the people, what is the e$ective di$erencebetween a liberal democracy and a liberal monarchy ne cold ar+e thatdemocracy gives people chec!s on the government should thegovernment decide to move in an illiberal direction , whereas there are nochecBs i* the Bin+ shold decide so. #he problem is what would be the chec! ifthe public decided to move the democratic government in an

illiberal direction7roponents o* democracy do not ha-e an answer *or that.

Democracy isnt an e$ective tool at the local or regional level

ID:A M(nstitte *or emocracy and Electoral ;ssistance, 1 eptem)er,http://www.idea.int/conOict/pload/CV!Sanch!E-ent!mmary.pd*, %/&/11'U Coomaarswamy opened the e-ent with an en+a+in+ presentation on how democracy as a cltre and-ale system is *ndamental to handlin+ tense social conOicts: it represents the non-iolent resoltion o* socialdiference thro+h a set o* principles that *eatre tolerance o* dissent set a+ainst a *ondational element o*

hman ri+hts. Democracy is not a panaceaas a system o* social conOict mana+ement,especially when it is challen+ed )y pro)lems sch as deep socioeconomic ineTalities or the mo)ili>ation o*

society alon+ e@clsi-e nationalist or reli+ios lines. A serious challenge to democracy,

she contended, arises from 5ideologies of e(clusion . n re*erence to the challen+es o*democracy and conOict in ri SanBa, she cited disappointment with the performanceof democracy especially at the local and regional level.Democracy has generated its own 5anger movements) becausethe state has not been able to address problems of povertyZ it is thematerial and e-eryday LneedsM that are more important to the people, she said. here is an r+ent need to

adopt a needs$)ased approach to democracy )ildin+, especially with re+ard to peace)ildin+Z fordemocracy to 8ourish as an institution contributing to socialpeace it must be reali>ed more fully at the local level"


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AOB Diamond

Diamonds theories on democracy fail% lying leaders economicdownturns and no protection for human rights

'erun!uma 11(3s*, stdent o* interational politics and +est writer *or the )ser-er, 9e)rary &,http://www.o)ser-er.+/[email protected]"com!content[tasB"-iew[id"1210%[temid"QQ, %/&/11'

What arry Diamond fails to understand is that the world issearching for leaders that will not tell them lies Islamist regimesoften play their politics on this premise. t is indeed no wonder that the slamist 7artyand the Aslim 5rotherhood are smellin+ -ictory in nisia and E+ypt, respecti-ely. rely then, there isno hope that democracyas we Bnow it will ever address the conscience o* theleaders of these movements. t will pro)a)ly )e somethin+ else, *ond in either reli+ion orcltre. In the &', Var-ard, tan*ord and 3ale +radate politiciansand lo))yists haveplundered America*or lon+, telling lies while accumulating wealth"#he hardships that have fomented revolt in :gypt #unisia andAlgeria are 9uite visible in many :uropean countries and ;orthAmerica"o many ;mericans are ot o* worB and there are many str++lin+ economies in Erope. 5t allthese are *lly Oed+ed democracies. t will )e rather a)srd to ima+ine that the ;ra)s will nTestionin+ly treadthe same line N one that disconnects leaders *rom their consciences as we ha-e seen, )ecase, the ma?ority

has decided. ;s lon+ as democracy does not translate into economicgrowth and human rightsN there will )e reason to do)t the otcomes o* this wa-e o*chan+e.

Diamonds categori>ation of democracies undermines histheories

eicht Z 2en!ins 1


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AOB reedom

Curtailment of freedom is inevitable% we are constrained byour own humanity

3upancic O!(;lenBa, researcher at the nstitte o* 7hilosophy in the lo-ene ;cademyo* ciences, Ethics o* the Ueal, p. 22'

\ant holds that as human beings we are part of ;ature, which means that weare entirely, internally and e@ternally, sub0ect to the laws of causality. Venceour freedom is limited not only from the 7outside but also fromthe 7insideB we are no more free 7in ourselves than we are 7in theworld"

#he plan cant solve for freedom% its arbitrary

3upancic O!(;lenBa, researcher at the nstitte o* 7hilosophy in the lo-ene ;cademyo* ciences, Ethics o* the Ueal, p. ##'

In order to attainthe freedomcharacteristic o* the s)?ect, one must not startwith the arbitrary the random as opposed to the lawli!e" in+.t may in *act )e the case that the moti-es we initially attri)ted to the s)?ect, which ha-e *allen short o*accontin+ *or her actions, were not in *act the ones that led her to act, )t this alone does not mean that there

were not some other moti-es or Gpatholo+ical interests which mo-ed her. o this freedom cannotbe founded upon the arbitrariness of our actions but on thecontrary only upon law and necessity themselvesB one has todiscover the point where the sub0ect itself playsan (acti-e' part onlawful, casal necessity, the point where the sub0ect itself is already inscribedin advance in what appear to be laws of causalityindependent o* the s)?ect.


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amine


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amine ;ow

ood shortages now% Africa

lood STS(]oe, staf Y Ranco-er n, 2011,http://www.-anco-ersn.com/news/;*rican^*ood^shorta+e^)ecomes^ma?or^crisis/0Q#400/story.html, '

'cores of 'omalichildren are dying on the ?orney or within a day o* arri-al at re*+ee campsin \enya and Ethiopia, as they 8ee the regionFs worst drought in decades, theF re*+ee a+ency said on


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ood shortage now% R warrants

'achs ,(Jefrey ., staf Y ime, 4/24,http://www.time.com/time/ma+a>ine/article/0,&1%1,1%#4=#4,00.html, '

#he crisis has its roots in four interlin!ed trends" #he rst isthechronically low productivity of farmers in the poorest countries, cased )ytheir ina)ility to pay *or seeds, *ertili>ers and irri+ation. #he second is the misguidedpolicy in the &"'" and :urope of subsidi>ing the diversion of foodcrops to produce biofuels liBe corn$)ased ethanol. #he third is climatechangeZ taBe the recent dro+hts in ;stralia and Erope, which ct the +lo)al prodction o* +rain in 200and K0Q. #he fourth is the growing global demand for food and feedgrains brought on by swelling populations and incomes. n short,rising demand has hit a limited supply with the poor ta!ing thehardest blow"


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amine &p

ood shortages now% !ills more than AID'

/ritt 11(Uo)ert Uoy, Editor in Chie* echAediaFetworB, http://www.li-escience.com/1444%$+lo)al$*ood$shorta+e$r+ent$climate$+lo)al$warmin+.html, 'A+rowin+ global food shortage has caused prices to double in recentyears, and a +rowin+ consenss o* scientists now )lames climate chan+e as one *actor in an eTation thatincldes a )r+eonin+ poplation and increasin+ly scarce water spplies. .ore people aroundthe planet are going hungry as a reslt. E-en as prices ha-e also risen in the nited tates,most residents may not +rasp the scope and se-erity o* the pro)lem. ;mericans toss a)ot 40 percent o* their*ood in the +ar)a+e, accordin+ to a 200& stdy. n this contry, *ood waste per person has increased 0 percent

since 1&%4. 3et one in seven people go to bed hungry every nightaccordin+to the nited Fations


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/ritt 11(Uo)ert Uoy, Editor in Chie* echAediaFetworB, http://www.li-escience.com/1444%$+lo)al$*ood$shorta+e$r+ent$climate$+lo)al$warmin+.html, '_ hanBs to si+ni8cant research dollars spent on de-elopin+ new strains o* Bey crops and )etter +rowin+

techniTes, global food production outpaced population growth formuch of the O


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liBely rise. 9or a`ent nations, this will not inOence *ood secrity mch at all, since sch a small proportiono* disposa)le income +oes to prchase *ood. /ut for the 1"G billion people in theworld who live on less than [1 per day, sch price risesNe-en i* they are -erysmallNcould have a devastating impact.

Water shortage now

A*C'' +,(;sia$7aci8c Center *or ecrity tdies, &/11,http://www.apcss.or+/7)lications/Ueport!9ood!ecrity!&=.html'

Water shortages werealso identied as apotential food securitychallenge" Water is a !ey determinant of crop yields"n ;sia, there areserios Testions a)ot the *tre a-aila)ility o* water. Aany contries in the re+ion are already *acin+si+ni8cant water scarcity isses. ne stdy that e@amined the a-aila)ility o* water *rom a +lo)al perspecti-e

conclded that Pwater availability will be a serious constraint toachieving the food re9uirements pro0ected for Oation.#2


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amine Down

:nough food now% multiple warrants

A*C'' +,(;sia$7aci8c Center *or ecrity tdies, &/11,http://www.apcss.or+/7)lications/Ueport!9ood!ecrity!&=.html';t the other e@treme, *ood secrity optimists tend to )e more san+ine a)ot the prospects *or +lo)al *oodsecrity in the *tre. ;ltho+h they reco+ni>e that there are real challen+es that mst )e o-ercome )oth now

and in the *tre, they also )elie-e that e$ective and enlightened policy responsescan prevent any disasters. ne clearly positi-e trend, they wold ar+e, is the *act thatglobal population growth is diminishing(in percenta+e terms', altho+h a)solteincreases are e@pected to contine ntil the year 200 primarily as a reslt o* poplation momentm. Aoreo-er,

the challenges to food security(*or instance land de+radation' tend to be localrather than global, s++estin+ that policy chan+es or impro-ements at the local le-el colddramatically increase a+ricltral yields. 9ood secrity optimists also )elie-e that technology andresearch can create abundant food supplies in the future. Uesearch in)iotechnolo+y, *or instance, can lead to the creation o* plant )reeds that are resistant to pest species and otherthreats. echnolo+y, moreo-er, is also Bey to the de-elopment o* hi+h$yield plant species.& 9ood secrity

optimists ar+e that there is much evidence that crop yields in manydeveloping countries could be e(panded signicantly. China, *or instance,has mch room to increase its +rain yields, despite the *act that sch yields are hi+h )y de-elopin+$contrystandards. Chinese *armers cold achie-e hi+her yields )y sin+ hi+h$yieldin+ seed -arieties, applyin+ impro-edchemical *ertili>ers, and practicin+ +reater e6ciency in the se o* pesticides and irri+ation water.10 Forman

5orla+, *ather o* the Preen Ue-oltionP, has recently ar+ed that small farmersin many de-elopin+contries are capable of doubling or tripling their yields if they wouldintegrate technology into their agricultural production.11 o )olster theircase *or the efects o* technolo+y and +reater e6ciency in *ood prodction, *ood secrity optimists point to the*act that *ood prices ha-e *allen s)stantially in recent decades (real 1&&2 *ood prices are ?st 22D o* *ood

prices in 1&0'. ;nother indicator o* +reater *ood secrity is e-idence that the per capita caloriesupply of food has increased in every region of the world *rom the early

1&Q0s ntil the late 1&=0s.


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ood shortages ;o Impact

amine e(aggerated% international humanitarian aid

#he #imes G(Aichael ynes, staf, 1/22, http://www.timesonline.co.B/tol/news/world/article=201.ece, 'EFSE FA5;, an impo-erished mother o* ei+ht *rom \a)m)we -illa+e in ]am)ias dro+ht$stricBenothern 7ro-ince, insists that her *amily has eaten nothin+ *or *or weeBs. ts terri)le, she said. here is no

*ood in the -illa+e, and it hasnt rained here for a month") /ut noneo* her *amilyshows any ill%e$ects from such deprivation"Ars indom)a is still a)le to )reast$*eed her child. he concedes that when she says she has not eaten for a monthshe really means that she has not eaten any mai>e" #he familystill have chic!ens goats and a few cattle" #hey are hungry but along way from starvation. t is almost a year since the nited Fations


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calorie and protein inta!e in most parts of the world have beenincreasing. pplies o* cereals and -e+eta)les ha-e )een increasin+. n most areas o* the worldhuman diets have improved 9uite substantially" Diets have ingeneral become more diverse. hey ha-e )ecome richer in calories and richer in proteins.he one possi)le e@ception to this is s)$aharan ;*rica.

;o timeframe% have enough food for + billion people

Dyson O (im, SE, http://www.*athom.com/*eatre/122Q&/[email protected], '* one looBs into the *tre, the Bey isse is whether a+ricltral yields are +oin+ to contine to rise at

reasona)le rates. see no reason to )elie-e that they will not. I donFt foresee any !ind ofma0or food crisis in the coming decades" here are ma?or pro)lems that we do needto address, )t on )alance thin+s ha-e )een +ettin+ )etter. n terms o* ma?or world pro)lems, donKt thinB *oodprodction shold )e at the top o* the a+enda$$certainly not in comparison to the isse o* climate chan+e, which

cold )e e@tremely serios.We should be able to produce enough food forthe+ billion people that there will be on the planet in a few decadestime"ettin+ s6cient *ood to the poorest amon+ the & )illion is an isse. here will still )e pro)lems in thatarea in 20 or #0 years.

;o shortage% grains solve

/runton ++(Uon, anthropolo+ist, http://www.pop.or+/content/myth$o*$world$*ood$shorta+es$1#&, ';ltho+h the rates o* increase in the yields o* some +rains in certain contries show Octations and slowdowns

in recent years,the overall prognosis for a continuation of the ma0orgains of recent decades is very good" espite indications that rice yields had )e+n toplatea in some East ;sian contries drin+ the 1&=0s, a 1& stdy carried ot )y onald 7lcBnett *or the

Consltati-e rop on nternational ;+ricltral Uesearch showed that with only *ew e@ceptions, yields ofthe three ma0or grains wheat rice and corn had continued toincrease dramatically around the world over the previous decade"

#he study e(aminedper hectare crop yields, which are the most appropriatemeasure*or assessin+ pro+ress in prodcti-ity, rather than total yields, which are afected )y -ariations inthe amont o* clti-ated land.1&

;o shortage% on the brin! of Q. revolution

/runton ++(Uon, anthropolo+ist, http://www.pop.or+/content/myth$o*$world$*ood$shorta+es$1#&, 'ndeed, rather than fearing that we are at the tail end of a period ofrapidly increasing agricultural productivity it is far more li!elythat we are in early phases of a ma0or technological revolutionbased on the genetic manipulation of plants and animals.21 ; sin+le e@ample o*

the way in which current developments could bring massive benetscan )eseen in worB desi+ned to prodce alminim$tolerant +rains. ;lminim is a pro)lem on #0 to 40 percent o* theworlds ara)le lands, particlarly in the tropics where acidic soils maBe the alminim sol)le, allowin+ it to )e

taBen p )y plant roots. Xarieties of corn which could produce 1< tons perhectare are only able to achieve around O tons in a$ected soils.22

;o soil shortage% farmland plentiful


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/runton ++(Uon, anthropolo+ist, http://www.pop.or+/content/myth$o*$world$*ood$shorta+es$1#&, '5t e-en i+norin+ the potential o* )iotechnolo+y, some of the warnings aboutsupposed constraints to increased agricultural yields are greatlye(aggerated" n 1&=4 Sester 5rown and Edward ation and soil compactionM do not pose a serious threatto the capacity of the global agricultural system to increaseyields.2 Crossen also notes that 7imentel and his associates, who are not e@perts on soil erosion and itsefects on prodcti-ity, simply i+nored more comprehensi-e research s++estin+ a *ar less alarmin+ sitationwhich had )een carried ot )y scientists who were e@perts on the topic, e-en tho+h they were aware o* it.

;nalysin+ these other stdies, Crossen calclates that *rom 1&4 ntil 1&&0, Gthe cumulativeaverage degradation%induced loss of global soil productivity wasroughly


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amine ;o 'olveB *olitics

amines are politically motivated

:ncyclopedia of *ublic 4ealth ? (&/1, http://www.enotes.com/p)lic$health$encyclopedia/*amine, '

he immediate causes of famineare inadeTate *ood prodction or marBet a-aila)ility, priceOctations, and limited hosehold assets. nderlyin+ cases, howe-er almost always involvemisguided or deliberate public policy repressive political systemsor natral or hman$cased disaster. n contries with pree@istin+ widespread po-erty, nemployment, or de)t,

natral and hman$cased disasters are the most common cases o* *ood shorta+es and *amine. ;dditionally hunger has been often used as a deliberate weapon" Access tofoodis sch a )asic hman need that control o* the *ood supply translates into directpoliticaland economic power. -er and o-er a+ain in history, speci8c poplations ha-e )een the-ictims o* an interrption o* their *ood spply with the intent to s)de them or dri-e them away.

Authoritarian government is the cause not 9uantity of foodQerhart ++(ail A., Vman Ui+hts


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more dependent on political, economic and social factors. 9ood ecrity and 7articlar7olitical ystems: #he cause of sudden famines is very complicated butevidence suggests a correlation between famine and non%democratic political systems" In democratic societies there ismore accountabilityand power*l interest +rops (which lessens the chance

for famine'. his e@plains why many democratic contries, e-en a*ter e@periencin+ sccessi-e periods o*poor har-ests, rarely ha-e e@perienced *amines.

amines are politically caused

WomenAid O! (2/20, http://www.womenaid.or+/press/in*o/*ood/*ood4.html, 'Why does hunger e(isthe cases o* hn+er are many and -aried. ome are o* natral ori+in,dro+ht, crop pests, natral disastersZ others are created by humans*or e@ample by war orover e(ploitationo* natral resorces essential to *ood prodction.=et the mostimportant causes of hunger have their roots ineconomic, social andpolitical factors having to do with the ways in which the

production and distribution of food are organised in the world" Ifyou as!ed why a malnourished person is hungry, that persons answer woldpro)a)ly )e: P5ecase there is nothin+ to eat.P rin+ the corse o* the year, many *arm commnities only+row eno+h *ood to last *or a si@, ei+ht, or ten month period, or mst sell all they prodce in order to meetr+ent needs *or cash. ;nother answer mi+ht )e: P ha-e no money to )y *ood *or my *amilyP. he man orwoman spportin+ a *amily may )e short o* cash )ecase o* a poorly paid ?o), )ecase o* low prices recei-ed

*or a+ricltral prodcts or other +oods, or simply )ecase he or she has )een ot o* a ?o) . 3et athirdcause stems from problems facing the nation as a whole" oodmay be available in a nei+h)orin+ contry, but access to it may not bepossiblei* there are no connectin+ roads or other means o* transportation, i* there is ins6cient *orei+ne@chan+e to )y it or i* trade relationships )etween contries are poor. n +eneral, hunger isconcentrated where incomes are low reinforcing the obvious

connection between hunger and poverty"Distribution not 9uantity is !ey

Vruschandl ,(Felson, en+ineer, 11/2Q, http://www.solarna-i+ator.net/*amine.htm, ';s o)ser-ed )y the economist ;martya en, famine is usually a problem of fooddistribution and poverty rather than an absolute lac! of food. Inmany cases such as the Qreat eap orward ;orth Voreain the mid$1&&0s,or 3imbabwe in the early 2000s, famine can be cased as an nintentional resultofgovernment policy" amine issometimes used as a tool of repressivegovernments as a means to eliminate opponents as in the Brainian 9amineo* the 1s. In other cases, sch as omalia, famine is a conse9uence of civildisorderas *ood distri)tion systems )reaB down. #here are a number of ongoingfamines caused bywar or deliberate political intervention" #oday,nitro+en *ertili>ers, new natral pesticides, desert *armin+, and other new agriculturaltechnologies are being used as weapons against famine"hey increasecrop yields )y two, three, or more times. e-eloped nations share these technolo+ies with de-elopin+ nations

with a *amine pro)lem. Vowe-er, since modern famine is usually the result ofwarand distribution problems it is 9uestionable how much rele-ance orimpact newa+ricltral technologies would have on this problem"


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37/69

Imperialism

American imperialism should be embraced it has been thegreatest force for good in the world

/oot G(Aa@, lin senior *ellow at the Concil on 9orei+n Uelations, P;merican mperialism Fo Feed to Un;way *rom Sa)el,P $1=$200#, www.attac)erlin.de/8leadmin/ommeraBademie/5oot!mperialim!8ne.pd*,'

#he greatest danger is that we wonFt use all of our power for fear of theFFIFF word %% imperialism" eera whether the nited tates was KKempire)ildin+,KK ecretary o* e*ense onald Ums*eld reacted as i* heKd )een asBed whether he wears womenKsnderwear. KK


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weFd better get used to &"'" troops being deployed there for yearspossibly decades to come" If that raises hac!les about Americanimperialism so be it" WeFre going to be called an empire whatever we do"We might as well be a successful empire "

Critici>ing Western 5imperialism) obscures more insidiouspractices by regional powers

'haw O(Aartin haw, pro*essor o* international relations at ni-ersity o* sse@, ses and ;)ses o* ;nti$mperialism in the lo)al Era, 4$%$2002, http://www.martinshaw.or+/empire.htm't is *ashiona)le in some circles, amon+ which we mst clearly inclde the or+ani>ers o* this con*erence, to ar+ethat the +lo)al era is seein+ Ka new imperialismK $ that can )e )lamed *or the pro)lem o* K*ailed statesK (pro)a)lyamon+ many others'. iferent contri)tors to this strand o* tho+ht name this imperialism in diferent ways, )tno-elty is clearly a critical isse. he lo+ic o* sin+ the term imperialism is actally to esta)lish continity )etweencontemporary *orms o*


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during the past century" It has defeated the monstrous evils ofcommunism and ;a>ism and lesser e-ils sch as the ali)an and er)ian ethnic cleansin+. ;lon+ theway it has helped spread liberal institutions to countries as diverse as'outh Vorea Jnews % web sitesK and *anama. 3et, while +enerally sccess*l as imperialists,;mericans ha-e )een loath to con8rm thatKs what they were doin+. hatKs \. Qiven the historicalbaggage that FFimperialismFF carries thereFs no need for the &"'"

government to embrace the term" /ut it should denitely embrace thepractice. hat doesnKt mean lootin+ raT o* its natral resorcesZ nothin+ cold )e more destrcti-e o* or +oalo* )ildin+ a sta)le +o-ernment in 5a+hdad" It means imposing the rule of law propertyrights free speech and other guarantees at gunpoint if need be" #his willre9uire selecting a new ruler who is committed to pluralism and thenbac!ing him or her to the hilt" Iran and other neighboring states wonFthesitate to impose their despotic views on Ira9 we shouldnFt hesitate toimpose our democratic views"

Critici>ing benevolent action on the grounds of imperialismundermines liberation of oppressed people imperialismis 0ustied in some instances"

'haw O(Aartin haw, pro*essor o* international relations at ni-ersity o* sse@, ses and ;)ses o* ;nti$mperialism in the lo)al Era, 4$%$2002, http://www.martinshaw.or+/empire.htm'

Conclusion: The abuses of anti-imperialism t is worth asBin+ how the politics of anti%imperialismdistorts Western leftistsF responses to global struggles for 0ustice. John 7il+er,*or e@ample, consistently seeBs to minimise the crimes o* Ailose-ic in \oso-o, and to deny their +enocidal character$ prely )ecase these crimes *ormed part o* the rationale *or


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4istory proves that any future without a dominante(pansionist nation acting within global society spurs ona world in which chaos and discontinuity pervades allparts of the globe

erguson R(Fiall, 7ro* o* Vistory at F3 tern, 9orei+n 7olicy, ; antium, meanwhile,was dealing with the /ulgar rebellion to the north" 5y &00, theAbbasid caliphateinitially esta)lished )y ;) al$;))as in %0 had passed its pea!Z itwas in steep decline )y the middle o* the 10th centry. In China, too,imperial power was ina dip)etween the Kan+ and n+ dynasties.5oth these empires had splendid capitalsN5a+hdad and

ChKan+$anN)t neither had serios aspirations o* territorial e@pansion. #he wea!ness of theold empires allowed new and smaller entities to 8ourish"ar tri)e con-erted to Jdaism in %40, their Bhanate occpied a Erasian power -acm )etween the 5lacBea and the Caspian ea. n \ie-, *ar *rom the reach o* 5y>antim, the re+ent l+a laid the *ondation *or the*tre Ussian Empire in &% when she con-erted to the rthodo@ Chrch. he el?BsN*ore)ears o* thettoman rBsNcar-ed the ltanate o* Um as the ;))asid caliphate lost its +rip o-er ;sia Ainor. ;*rica had itsmini$empire in hanaZ Central ;merica had its Aayan ci-ili>ation. Connections )etween these entities were

minimal or none@istent. #his condition was the antithesis of globali>ation" Itwas a world bro!en up into disconnected introverted civili>ations.ne *eatre o* the a+e was that, in the a)sence o* stron+ seclar polities, reli+ios Testions o*ten prodcedserios con-lsions. ndeed, reli+ios instittions o*ten set the political a+enda. n the ei+hth and ninthcentries, 5y>antim was racBed )y contro-ersy o-er the proper role o* icons in worship. 5y the 11th centry,the pope *elt con8dent eno+h to hm)le Voly Uoman Emperor Venry R drin+ the )attle o-er which o* themshold ha-e the ri+ht to appoint )ishops. he new monastic orders amassed considera)le power inChristendom, particlarly the Clniacs, the 8rst order to centrali>e monastic athority. n the Aslim world, it

was the lema (clerics' who trly rled. his atmosphere helps e@plain why the period ended with thee@traordinary holy wars Bnown as the Crsades, the 8rst o* which was lanched )y Eropean Christians in 10&.

3et, this apparent clash of civili>ations was in many ways 0ustanother e(ample of the apolar worldFs susceptibility to long%distance military raids directed at urban centers by morebac!ward peoples" he RiBin+s repeatedly attacBed antim, too, was sacBed in =Q0 )y raiders *rom Us, the Bernel o* the *tre Ussia.his 8erce and sa-a+e tri)e showed no mercy, lamented the 5y>antine patriarch. t was liBe the roarin+ sea


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H destroyin+ e-erythin+, sparin+ nothin+. 'uch were the conditions of an anarchicage. mall wonder that the *tre seemed to lie in creatin+ small, de*ensi)le, political nits: the Renetianrep)licNthe Tintessential city$state, which was condctin+ its own *orei+n policy )y =40Nor ;l*red the reatKsEn+land, ar+a)ly the 8rst thin+ resem)lin+ a nation$state in Eropean history, created in ==Q.

#urn proliferationa" A withdrawal of American imperialism would result in a rapid

arms races of biological and nuclear weapons

osen G(tephen, ;n Empire, * 3o Can \eep t, Fational nterest, prin+';s *or imperial rle o-er other peoples, the &nited 'tates has always preferred indirectruleB the installation of local governments compatible with Americanpolicies" Direct rule will be seen as a temporary measure to prepareconditions for a transfer of power to local inhabitants.5t e$ective transfercould be a long time comingin places liBe ;*+hanistan and raT, or in other places where the nitedtates esta)lishes military +arrisons intended to )e temporary. he nited tates is *lly capa)le o* enlar+in+ itsarmy to maintain sch +arrisons o-er lon+ periods o* timeZ in li-in+ memory, a*ter all, the peacetime .. military

has had o-er three million men and women. he real constraint will )e political:


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Indo%*a!;o escalation &' will try not to get involved

.ar!ey 1


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shold not )e e@a++erated. #he .uslim insurgency in Vashmir and alleged*a!istani support for it was perceived in ;ew Delhi as amanifest threat to IndiaFs territorial integrity and nationalidentity there was growing temptation in government circlesas well as important political groups to use military force to

resolve the crisis.# .. secrity protection o* 7aBistan was )ond to )e seen as 8cBle )yslama)ad, +i-en the rocBy history o* ..$7aBistani rela$ tions. Aoreo-er, whatever restraint&"'" military and economic assistance engendered in *a!istanFsnuclear activities it came to an end in late 1++e the conditions many Western analysts fear will lead tocatastrophe if proliferation increases in the world" /ecause of asurfeit of powerful and interloc!ing factors that are at wor! inpushing India and *a!istan toward military con8ict one wouldintuitively e(pect that the subcontinent is a Hleast li!elyH casefor peaceful proliferation outcomes"

;o threat between India and *a!istan % intel

Inewsite + (http://www.inewsit.com/articles/entry/s$there$no$threat$*rom$ndia$)y$;*shain$;*>aldw: Q$=$200&, da: %$&$2011, lido'

&' intelligence o@cials have conrmed that Washington is wor!ingto improve cooperation between *a!istan and India to share moreinformation on counterterrorism matters. ACentral ntelli+ence ;+ency (CIAKo@cial added that the cooperation also included intelligence sharingon #aliban commanders who are carrying out insurgency against the*a!istani government. n the same re+ard, the ation SashBar$e$ayyia)a (Se'.

#he &' also shares regular intelligence with India on *a!istanArmyFs operations against elementsin 5a?ar, the wat Ralley and 5ner in 7aBistan. nanother de-elopment mediated )y C;, the rina+ar$A>afara)ad )s ser-ice has )een thrown open to e-eryone inndia. Earlier, it was restricted only to people with relati-es across the di-idin+ Sine o* Control (SoC'. ndiano-ernment has eased the e@istin+ rles, as a reslt o* which more people can now tra-el across the SoC. heydonKt need a -alid passport )t instead a permit issed )y the 7assport 6cer in ndian Jamm and \ashmir wold

s6ce. his permit wold )e -alid *or -isit any where in ;>ad Jamm and \ashmir. n the same re+ard ndianAinistry o* E@ternal ;fair has issed clari8cations that all ndian national can apply *or across SoC tra-el in 7aBistan.ndian Ainistry o* 9orei+n ;fairs has +i-en +o ahead si+nal to a plan in which Ktriple entry permitK wold )e +ranted

to *reTent tra-elers, which will pt an end to +oin+ thro+h -arios *ormalities. It appears that daysare counted when the Indian nationals would also be allowed to visit*a!istan without necessary formalities"


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/oth countries are entering peace tal!s wont go to war

Islamabad 'unday #imes 11(e the other . ;nalysts estimate that sch tranTility )etween thetwo oth ;sian +iants wold add a)ot D to 7aBistanKs rate o* +rowth, and more than 1D to ndiaKs. hiscolmnist )elie-es that more and more people across )oth sides o* the )order appreciate the *olly o* seeBin+concessions *rom the other side that are politically impossi)le *or them to accept. here is a need to *ormlate ?ointstrate+ies a+ainst terrorism and economic and social )acBwardness, rather than Beep away *rom +eninecooperation. nterestin+ly, these days the power*l 7n?a)i politcian, Aian Fawa> hari*, seems to )e articlatin+

?st sch a -iewpoint. 'harif has been realistic in his acceptance of the needfor peace between India and *a!istan and of the immense benetsthat this would bring to both"'hould there be greater cross%bordertrade both sides of *un0ab can develop at a much more rapid paceas indeed can other parts of both India and *a!istan" 'adlyapparently because he is wary of being seen by the military as toosoft on India *resident 3ardari has distanced himself from hisearlier views and is tal!ing in harsher tones about India"

;o war deterrence .usharaf

'ule!ha news ,(http://newshopper.sleBha.com/no$threat$o*$india$paBistan$war$msharra*!news!1014%=.htm, da: %$&$2011, lido'KSet me maBe clear to all that 7aBistani *orces are *lly eTipped and ready to *ace any a++ression... )t wold

say that India should not dare to attac! *a!istan,K .usharraf said when pressedby reporters as to what would happen if India attac!s *a!istan" .usharraf,who had to resignin August under national and international pressure after ruling the country for almost nine years said there were no chances of war between the two countries butwas 9uic! to add that *a!istan was capable of defending itsborders if attac!ed"

;o war % public

'ify news + (http://www.si*y.com/news/no$threat$o*$war$with$india$+ilani$news$international$?e+red*hc.html,, dw: 1$1$200&, da: %$&$2011, lido'H/oth countries are nuclear powers" I thin! there is no threat ofwarH Qilani told a brief news conference drin+ a -isit to the n*ormation Ainistry.Ve was respondin+ to a Testion a)ot army chie* eneral eepaB \apoorKs comments on


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Testion a)ot 7aBistan possi)ly a)andonin+ the ran$7aBistan$ndia +as pipeline pro?ect, ilani said a specialen-oy o* ran who met him recently had +i-en no indication that the -entre will not )e implemented.

;o Indo%*a! war % empirics

.oore S(Carl, )lo++er, http://www.carolmoore.net/nclearwar/[email protected], dw: Aay 200%, da: %$4$

2011, lido'

India and *a!istan have repeatedly threatened nuclear war againsteach other most seriously in the last few years" n late ecem)er 2002 7aBistanKspresident, eneral 7er-e> .usharraf, addressin+ ;ir 9orce -eterans in \arachi, saidB he last yearHpersonallyH conveyed a clear HmessageH to7rime Ainister Xa0payeeHthrough every international leader who came to *a!istanH namelythat Indian troops Hshould not e(pect a conventional war from*a!istanH if they Hmoved a single step across the internationalborder or the ine of ControlH" n response ndian e*ense Ainister eor+e 9ernande> said:P


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.iddle%:ast WarA .ideast war would not escalate or go nuclear

'tevens OLEli>a)eth te-ens, eptem)er 1&, 2002,http://in*omana+e.com/nonproli*eration/na?ornal/israelincs.html M

hs *ar, Israel has confronted continuous hostility with a strongconventional superiority" It is doubtful that it would resort to anuclear weapon given the fact that it could repel the attac! of anyone of its Arab opponents and probably a combination of them"Israel has signed a peace treaty with :gypt and moderating forcesin 2ordan are strong" #he recent peace treaty with the *- anddi$erences between Ira9 and 'yria further reduce the possibility ofa united Arab attac!. t wold appear that srael does not need a nclear arsenal.

.iddle :ast war wont escalate

i 1L7ro*. Si hao@ian, an e@pert in the Aiddle East and a senior researcher in the nstitte o* Contemporarynternational Uelations, ;+st 1%, 2001, http://www.china.or+.cn/en+lish/2001/;+/1%Q%1.htm, accessed Aarch &,200%M

Although the situation in the .iddle :ast is alarming it will notstart a war"he main reasons are: 9irst both the international community andinternational environment will not allow another .iddle :ast war tobrea! out"7eace and de-elopment is still the theme o* todays world. ;o big power wants tosee a new war between Arab and Israel in this area so crucial to oilproduction. econd, war is not in line with the interests of several

countries in the .iddle :ast" ;one of the Israelis(incldin+ haron himsel*'wants war because war would again put the very e(istence of thecountry in dangerZ 3asser ;*ra*at, as well, does not want war, )ecase war wold trn his 10 yearspeace eforts into nothin+ :gypt and 'yria, the other two )i+ powers in Aiddle East, do not wantwar either. he president o* E+ypt Vosni A)araB 8rmly re?ected the possi)ility o* war in an inter-iew withsraeli R. 5ashar al$;ssad, the new president o* yria, has pt most his attention on domestic afairs. hird, thecountries and e(tremists who do want to see war have neither thecapablities or means for war.

Deterrence chec!s middle east con8ict emperics and fear

Walt> O!L\enneth, pro*, http://www.ciaonet.or+/ol?/+?ia/+?ia!winspr00*.html, dw: prin+ 2000, da: %$=$2011,lidoM


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the constant danger of assassination and e(ternally as theyresurrounded by enemies" And they survive for decades until they arecarried out in a bo(" Are they irrational #heir behavior is ugly andnasty to be sure but irrational 4ow could they survive If theywere not deterrable how would they ever have survivedhey dont rnthe Bind o* risBs that wold pt their re+ime into Testion. \im l n+ wanted to pass his rei+n onto his son, \im

Jon+ l. hey o)-iosly lo-e to rle, )t they-e +ot to ha-e a contry. #heyre not going to ris!the e(istence of their country" or e(ample 'addam 4ussein wasdeterred during the *ersian Qulf War" 4e did not arm the 'C&Dmissiles with lethal warheads and shoot them at Israel" #hey werenuisance attac!s" Why /ecause he didnt want us to pound himmore heavily than he was being pounded" #he allies led by the&nited 'tates could have substantially destroyed that countrywithout ever using nuclear weapons and he !new it" 'ure he wasdeterred" o how can we say irrational or ndeterra)le 5t we do say it.

.iddle :ast 'tates dont want war

'hao(ian 1LSi, pro*, http://www.china.or+.cn/en+lish/2001/;+/1%Q%1.htm, dw: =$1%$2001, da: %$&$2011,lidoM

econd, war is not in line with the interests of several countries in the.iddle :ast" ;one of the Israelis(incldin+ haron himsel*' wants war becausewar would again put the very e(istence of the country in dangerZ 3asser;*ra*at, as well, does not want war, )ecase war wold trn his 10 years peace eforts into nothin+Z E+ypt and

yria, the other two )i+ powers in Aiddle East, do not want war either. #he president of :gypt4osni .ubara! rmly re0ected the possibility of war in an interviewwith Israeli #X" /ashar al%Assad the new president of 'yria has putmost his attention on domestic a$airs"

;o war in the middle east all con8icts are settling over

uttwa! SLEdward, staf, http://www.prospectma+a>ine.co.B/200%/0/themiddleo*nowhere/, dw: $2Q$200%, da: %$&$2011, lidoM

trate+ically,the Arab%Israeli con8ict has been almost irrelevant since theend of the cold war" And as for the impact of the con8ict on oilprices it was powerful in 1+SG when the 'audis declared embargoesand cut production but that was the rst and last time that the 5oilweapon) was wielded. 9or decades now, the largest Arab oil producers have

publicly foresworn any lin!age between politics and pricin+, and anem)ar+o wold )e a disaster *or their oil$re-ene dependent economies. n any case, the relationshipbetween turmoil in the middle east and oil prices is far fromstraightforward";s 7hilip ;erswald recently noted in the ;merican nterest, )etween 1&=1 and 1&&&Na period when a *ndamentalist re+ime consolidated power in ran, ran and raT *o+ht an ei+ht$year war within

-iew o* oil and +as installations, the Qulf war came and went and the rst*alestinian intifada ragedoil prices ad0usted for in8ation actuallyfell" And global dependence on middle eastern oil is decliningB todaythe region produces under G< per cent of the worlds crude oil


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compared to almost R< per cent in 1+SR%S?"n 200 1% per cent o* ;merican oilimports came *rom the l*, compared to 2= per cent in 1&%, and 7resident 5sh sed his 200Q state o* the nionaddress to annonce his intention o* cttin+ oil imports *rom the middle east )y three Tarters )y 202. 3es, it

wold )e nice i* sraelis and 7alestinians cold settle their diferences, )t it would do little ornothing to calm the other con8icts in the middle east from Algeriato Ira9 or to stop .uslim%4indu violence in Vashmir, Aslim$Christian -iolencein ndonesia and the 7hilippines, Aslim$5ddhist -iolence in hailand, Aslim$animist -iolence in dan, Aslim$+)o -iolence in Fi+eria, Aslim$Asco-ite -iolence in Chechnya, or the diferent -arieties o* inter$Aslim -iolence)etween traditionalists and slamists, and )etween nnis and hia, nor wold it assa+e the per*ectlynderstanda)le hostility o* con-inced slamists towards the trans+ressi-e west that relentlessly in-ades their minds,and sometimes their contries.

&' and other western countries intervention in the middle eastchec! con8ict

3ein +LAosta*a, http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/Q1#4=m dw: &$#0$200&, da: %$&$2011, lidoM#he Westerners, especially the nited tates, reali>e this -ery well. hey also reali>e thattheir interests in the .iddle :ast re9uire from them to spread

stability" /esides large international institutions view the Iraniannuclear program as a primitive one that it is still very far frommanufacturing a \nuclear] bomb or weapons"heir reaction was -ery -iolent *or twoadditional reasons. 9irst, to con8rm, on the e-e o* the ne+otiations, that the ing therelations with the Arabs to start negotiations HwithoutpreconditionsH" n order to complete the pictre and maBe e-eryone *or+et the pled+es o* )amaKsadministration re+ardin+ the Aiddle East, emphasis was made on demoni>in+ ran and its nclear aspirations.

#he 0oint American%Israeli military maneuvers were depicted as aneed to rea@rm their alliance in the face of the imminent Iranianthreat" #he Western%Iranian negotiations will last a long time" Israelwill be the absent%present factor in all their details" Whenever thesituation gets complicated Israel will threaten to stri!e Iran" t willmaniplate any


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*overty#urnB Capitalism is closing the global income gap

;orberg


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episodic downtrns than those that do not is an open Testion, )t Bnow o* no con-incin+stdy that s++ests this is more liBely in a modern mi@ed capitalist economy than inother economic systems. 5t the long%run improvement in the standards ofliving of large segments of the worldFs population has been greatestin the capitalist era, as has the correlated e-oltion o* personal *reedom.here has ne-er

)een a period in hman history that e-en remotely compares to the tremendos+rowth in material wealth and personal *reedom in the period since mith wrote The Wealth of6ations(see . Sandes 1&&='. o )e sre, lar+e se+ments o* manBind were le*t )ehind, )oth economically andpolitically. ;s a +ross historical +enerali>ation, they were in societies that lacBed )oth economic and political*reedoms and competition. ;ltho+h the capitalist economies ha-e wide dispersions in the distri)tion o*

consmption, the a-era+e poor *amily in the nited tates has a standard o*li-in+ well )eyond that o* the a-era+e Ussian *amily, *or e@ample, and a)o-e that o* thea-era+e ;merican *amily o* a cople o* +enerations a+o.(2' ;nd the most entrenched po-erty in the;merican economy occrs in pocBets o* a Tasi$socialist economy, with little competition,pri-ate capital, or pri-ate incenti-es, sch as inner$city p)lic hosin+ and schools.

Qlobal poverty decreasingcap is the root cause

/al!o O(Uadley senior editor at Ueason ma+a>ine. 7re-iosly, he was a policy analyst *or the Cato nstitte,speciali>in+ in -ice and ci-il li)erties issesM (cto)er 20, 2002' Capitalism \ey to Endin+ 7o-erty(http://www.capma+.com/article.asp"1&=1'

ation, and *ree trade. he 8rst stdy is the 2002edition o* the nited FationsK annal PVman e-elopment Ueport.P he reportin*orms s that as o* 2002, 140 o* the worldKs 200 contries $$ %0 percent $$ nowhold mlti$party elections. Ei+hty$two contries representin+ % percent o* thehman poplation are *lly democratic, the hi+hest percenta+e in hman history .;*ter a centry in which totalitarianism $$ Fa>ism, *ascism and commnism $$ Billedmore than 1%0 million people, a clear mo-e toward ni-ersal political *reedom isa*oot.he nm)ers on world economics are +ood, too. ation. he nm)er o* world nternetsers is e@pected to do)le )y 200 to one )illion. n those re+ions o* the world most sympathetic to li)eral re*orm,the news is e-en )etter. n ten years, po-erty hal-ed in in East ;sia and the 7aci8c re+ions. ince 1&&0, =00million people ha-e +ained new access to impro-ed water spplies, and %0 millionto impro-ed sanitation. n the last #0 years, in*ant mortality rates ha-e dropped*rom &Q deaths per 1,000 li-e )irths to ?st Q. ; stdy *rom the nstitte *or nternational tdies)oasts e-en more +ood news. he athor o* that stdy, r?it . 5halla, employed accontin+ statistics )ased onindi-idal incomes instead o* national incomes, which allowed him to more accrately measre wealth and po-ertyrates. 5halla concldes that the world po-erty rate has declined e-en more dramatically than the .F. reports, *rom44 percent in 1&=0 to ?st 1# percent in 2000. 5halla attri)tes the decline to pro+ress in China and ndia, the twomost poplos nations in the world, and two nations that ha-e made si+ni8cant mo-es toward more economic

*reedom in the last 20 years. 5t not all the news is +ood. V+e swaths o* hmanity still *ester ina)?ect po-erty. Fot srprisin+ly, the re+ions witnessin+ the most po-erty alsohappen to hose those cltres and re+imes most a-erse to marBets and capitalism

$$ s)$aharan ;*ricaand the ;ra) world.

ichT*oor gap reduced by capitalism

/utters S, (;ssistant 7ro*essor o* Economics at ni-ersity o* Fe)rasBa I Sincoln, 200% LUo+er, Teaching the7ene8ts of Capitalism, http://www.hillsdale.ed/ima+es/serma+es/a*olsom/7a+e!Q2=1/5tters.pd*M'

; common response tothe traditional presentation o* economic +rowth)e+innin+ with the ndstrialUe-oltion and resltin+ *rom capitalism isthat it is a Erogcentric interpretation o* history, and thatthe


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wealth wasnot so mch created as trans*erred aslar+e colonial powers har-ested resorcesand la)or withot re+ard tothe wel*are o* the indi+enos poplations. his *ollows the )asic di-ided pie e@planation o* prodction and distri)tion where it is assmed that thereare a 8@ed nm)er o* resorces prodcin+ a 8@ed le-el o* otptZ i* one indi-idal or +rop iswealthier than another, it is )ecase they were a)le to car-e ot a lar+er slice o*the 8@ed pieto the detriment o* others.hisinterpretation o* how wealth is created completely i+noresthe

ad-ances in prodcti-e capacity )ro+ht on )y competiti-e marBets and inno-ation.t assmes a statist -iew and has dri-en the poplar panics srrondin+ resorces since the time o* Aalths. Aore

dama+in+ly, it i+nores )asic data and presents a )arrier to nderstandin+ the natre o*moderneconomic +rowth. imply pt, ;*rica is poor not )ecase Erope is rich, )t)ecase ;*rica has always )een poor and )ecase Erope adopted a recipe *orcreatin+ wealth. ;nother pro)lem with the colonial e@ploitation -iew o* economic +rowth is that it *ails toe@plain the e@periences o* thenited tates (a colony', ;stralia(a penal colony', or Von+\on+(a colony', to mention a *ew. ; )etter e@planation is that the colonial masters )ro+ht with them socialinstittions that laid the *ondations *or sstained economic +rowth.


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*roliferation*roliferation is slow

Qray O!(Colin, pro*, http://*ds.op.com/www.op.com/pd*/1#/&%=01&=2&Q24&.pd*, da:%$Q$2011, lido'he nm)ers o* nclear$weapon, and nclear$threshold, states, remain mch lower than proli*eration pessimists

were predictin+ in the 1&0s and 1&Q0s. here is no Testion )t that the pace of proliferationhas been slow and at present shows no thoroughly convincing signsof a prospect for other than a distinctly steady acceleration" /ut thistrend if that is what it is of a deliberate pace in proliferation isvulnerable to nuclear learning from any crisis anywhere that seemsto demonstrate a strategic necessity for nuclear arms"he trend that hasprodced only 8-e F7$licensed nclear$weapon statesNwhich happen to )e the 9i-e 7ermanent Aem)ers o* theF ecrity ConcilNthree nlicensed nclear$weapon states (srael, ndia, 7aBistan', at least one near$nclear$weapon threshold state (Forth \orea', and three wold$)e nclear$weapon states (raT, ran, Si)ya', is indeed

impressi-e.Also it is impressive that inter alia 'weden 'wit>erland2apan Argentina /ra>il :gypt and #aiwan have stepped bac! fromactive pursuit of the military nuclear option" Aore noteworthy still was therennciation in 1&&0 o* actal, as opposed to -irtal, nclear weapons )y a oth ;*rica whose internal ande@ternal secrity condition has )een trans*ormed )y and lar+e *or the )etter, and )y the distinctly insecre e@tra$Ussian le+atees o* part o* the erstwhile o-iet nclear arsenal.

;o mass prolif countries give up

#epperman + (Jonathon, staf, dw: =$2&$200&, da: %$=$2011, http://www.newsweeB.com/200&/0=/2=/why$o)ama$shold$learn$to$lo-e$the$)om).html, lido'he risB o* an arms raceNwith, say, other 7ersian l* states rshin+ to )ild a )om) a*ter ran +ot oneNis a )it

harder to dispel. nce a+ain, howe-er, history is instrcti-e. PIn MR years the most nuclear%

weapons states weFve ever had is 1OP says . PFow with Forth \orea weKre at nine.hatKs not proli*erationZ thatKs spread at +lacial pace.P ;uclear weapons are socontroversial and e(pensive that only countries that deem themabsolutely critical to their survival go through the e(treme troubleof ac9uiring them" #hatFs why 'outh Africa &!raine /elarus andVa>a!hstan voluntarily gave theirs up in the early F+il and Argentina dropped nascent programs"his doesnKt +arantee that one or more o* ranKs nei+h)orsNE+ypt or adi ;ra)ia, sayNmi+ht not still +o *or the

)om) i* ran mana+es to )ild one. /ut the ris!s of a rapid spread are lowespecially given 'ecretary of 'tate 4illary ClintonFs recentsuggestion that the &nited 'tates would e(tend a nuclear umbrella

over the region as Washington has over 'outh Vorea and 2apan ifIran does complete a bomb" If one or two Qulf states nonethelessdecided to pursue their own weapon that still might not be sodisastrous given the way that bombs tend to mellow behavior"

Deterrence and security chec! accidents


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Walt> O!(\enneth, pro*, http://www.ciaonet.or+/ol?/+?ia/+?ia!winspr00*.html, dw: prin+ 2000, da: %$=$2011,lido'

thinB lar+e nm)ers o* weapons wold raise that concern. 5t I thin! we can rely on theirselfinterest and their ingenuity to prevent accidents" :very countrygoes through a period where it has relatively crude weaponsalthough relatively crude weapons are not as crude as they used tobe and where they have small numbers and where there are some9uestions of vulnerability" /ut we have managed to get throughthose periods" he only striBes we-e had ha-e )een at nclear *acilities )e*ore any warheads wereprodced, with no attacBs where there were e@istin+ warheads and *or +ood reason: eterrence worBs.

;o accidents will happen from prolif

Varl +M(a-id, phd, moodle#stoa#usp#br&mod&resource&"ie#php(id*+*,* d: Winter ../ da: 0-.-*1lido)ome proli*eration optimists concede the crisis$sta)ility dan+ers posed )y emer+in+ nclear arsenals, )tcontend that sch dan+ers are transitory as postres de-elop in si>e and sophistication, and can )ealle-iated e-en more TicBly )y the trans*er o* command and control technolo+y *rom esta)lished nclear

powers to newer ones. ed se. hey, howe-er, -iew this pro)lem as Ha relativelyFlowF%probability event.P%4 /ut the resource limitations faced by#hird World states ma!e it 9uestionable whether postures willevolve 9uic!ly or dramatically.% #hey lac! both the wherewithalto e(pand li!e the superpowers and the doctrinal impetus whichin the &"'" case came from e(tended%deterrence commitmentsto cover an e(traordinary range of targets under a variety ofcircumstances and with a high degree of redundancy. he centrality o*

e@tended deterrence in .. strate+ic policy had two principal efects. 9irst, by tying forcere9uirements in an implicitly open$ended manner to the si>e o* the o-iet military esta)lishment,it sanctioned the deployment of an e(tensive number andvariety of nuclear weapons" t also had the conseTence o* rein*orcin+ and rationali>in+the lon+$standin+ preempti-e implses and emphasis on conter*orce tar+etin+ in .. nclear plannin+. ;sone scholar notes, the risB o* preempti-e war in the Cold


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argue government and academic e(perts fre9uently 5e(aggeratedthe scope and pace of nuclear weapons proliferation"4

;o con8ict nucleari>ed rivals create fear within each other

Varl +M(a-id, phd, moodle#stoa#usp#br&mod&resource&"ie#php(id*+*,* d: Winter ../ da: 0-.-*1lido)-ptimists have rela(ed views of the preventive%war dangersentailed in situations in which a nuclear power confronts anucleari>ing rival. he practical di6clties o* ensrin+ a disarmin+ striBe to preclde any possi)ilityo* nclear retaliation maBe pre-enti-e actions a military +am)le that states are -ery nliBely to taBe. ;s e@plains, Ppre-ention and pre$emption are di6clt +ames )ecase the costs are so hi+h i* the +amesare not per*ectly played.... ltimately, the inhi)itions La+ainst sch attacBsM lie in the impossi)ility o*Bnowin+ *or sre that a disarmin+ striBe will totally destroy an opposin+ *orce and in the immense

destrction e-en a *ew warheads can wreaB.P2 o optimists, states will have to learn tolive with a rivalFs emerging nuclear armory /ecause strategicuncertainty is seen as having a powerful dissuasive e$ectoptimists usually view the very increase in the numbers ofnuclear%armed states as an additional element of stability"a+o)ert/rito andAichael Intriliator, *or instance, argue that uncertainty over thereaction of other nuclear powers will ma!e all hesitant to stri!eindividually 2Q;s an e@ample, they point to the restraint the sperpowers e@ercised on each otherin the 1&Q0s, when 8rst the nited tates and then the o-iet nion contemplated military action a+ainstChinaKs nascent nclear weapon sites. he net efect o* the ncertain reaction o* others is that Pthepro)a)ility o* deli)erate nclear attacB *alls to near >ero with three, *or, or more nclear nations.P2%

imilarly, Walt> reasons that even in cases of asymmetricproliferation within con8ict dyads nuclear weapons will proveHpoor instruments for blac!mailH because a Hcountry that ta!esthe nuclear o$ensive has to fear an appropriately punishingstri!e by someone. 9ar *rom lowerin+ the e@pected cost o* a++ression, a nclear ofense e-ena+ainst a non$nclear state raises the possi)le costs o* a++ression to incalcla)le hei+hts )ecase thea++ressor cannot )e sre o* the reaction o* other nclear powers.P2=


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;o nu!es .oscow only has weapons for deterrence e$ect

//C +(Ussian commentator -iews reasons *or chan+es to nclear weapons policy, le@is, dw: 10$2#$200&, da:%$Q$2011, lido';o less curious is the intention to institutionali>e and prescribe the conditions of the employment of

nuclear weapons in regional and local wars" &ntil recently .oscow had stated that

these weapons are political" .oscow said that they e(ist only inorder to deter the possessors of nuclear weapons from war witheach other Jit is no accident that war between the &nited 'tates and the &'' also remainedthan!s to you Qod HcoldHK" or G< years now it has been considered to beimpossible to win a nuclear war"

ussia will not attac!

riedman and ogan +(5en?amin and Jstin, phd and writer, e@pert,http://www.cato.or+/p)s/articles/*riedman!lo+an!hittin+stop)[email protected]*, dw: %$Q$2010, da: %$=$2011, lido'

his narrati-e is de-oid o* strate+ic lo+ic. eaving aside nuclear weapons, which deterrence

renders nsa)le, ussiais nor a great power and is incapable ofthreatening Western :urope let alone the &nited 'tates. he World /an!predicts that ussiaFs economy will shrin! by R"? percent this year,and its nemployment will hit 12 percent. E-en close to the hei+ht o* oil prices, Ussia possessed a 7 onlyro+hly eTi-alent co that o* taly and 7ort+al com)ined. ts stocB marBet is down )y mere than hal* since thistime last year. ts de*ense spendin+ totals a)ot W%0 )illion annally less than what the .. spends on de*ense

research and in-estment alonei, tor what remains a second$rate military. #his is a country strongenough to pummel wea! neighbors li!e Qeorgia but one thatshouldnFt worry :urope which spends roughly four times more"/alance of power theory tells us that if ussia grow morethreatening the members of the :uropean &nionNnow collecti-ely richer thanthe ..Nwill respond by investing more on defense than their current

average of O percent of QD* and by further integrating theirmilitary capacity. ;o longer driven by a revolutionary ideologyussia also lac!s the 'oviet &nionFs ambitions" re, Ussia does not liBe thedemocratic +o-ernments on its OanBs in Braine and eor+ia. 5t that is )ecase these +o-ernments are prsin+

policies that an+er Ussia, not )ecase they are democratic per se. What ussia wants arepliant neighbors" #hat desire is typical of relatively powerful statesB#he long &"'" his tory of violent interventions in atin Americaundermines whatever lectures we might direct at .oscow"

ussia doesnt have the incentive to go to war

riedman and ogan +(5en?amin and Jstin, phd and writer, e@pert,http://www.cato.or+/p)s/articles/*riedman!lo+an!hittin+stop)[email protected]*, dw: %$Q$2010, da: %$=$2011, lido'

Fo lon+er dri-en )y a re-oltionary ideolo+y, ussia also lac!s the 'oviet &nionsambitions. re, Ussia does not liBe the democratic +o-ernments on its OanBs in Braine and eor+ia. 5tthat is )ecase these +o-ernments are prsin+ policies that an+er Ussia, not )ecase they are democratic per se.

What ussia wants are pliant neighbors" #hat desire is typical ofrelatively powerful statesB #he long &"'" history of violentinterventions in atin America undermines whatever lectures we


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might direct at .oscow"Fow compare todays secrity sitation to the one that cased natos*ormation in 1&4&. #he 'oviets had at least S


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5the West must ma!e a stand)" n efect, these people are ar+in+ *or a cre that isactally a lot worse than the disease.

;o scenario for any conventional war going nuclear

.anning O!LUo)ert, 9ormer C.R. tarr enior 9ellow *or ;sia tdies, and irector, ;sia tdies, Concil on9orei+n Uelations, ;))ott and Costello nclear policy, Aarch 10, 2000, he


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'pace Warussia and China are wor!ing towards space weaponi>ation

prevention

'u 1ation o* space and a )ildin+ )locB in a )roader space secrity le+al re+ime.4#CritiTes ha-e )een presented as well. ;shley J. ellis, a senior associate at the Carne+ie Endowment *ornternational 7eace, writes that the 77a$ tion is its contri)tion to a mltilayeredmissile de*ense shield. n$ deed, Chinas campai+n *or 7;U ne+otiation at the C seems to inten$ si*y a*ter eachnew de-elopment in nited tates 5A plans.20 ;ltho+h China cold respond to a 5A shield with efecti-econtermeasres,21 *tre technolo+ical de-elopments may permit the 5A system to -iti$ ate Chinas ncleardeterrent.22 n the case o* a conOict o-er aiwan, *or e@ample, a space$)ased 5A system cold pro-e -ery

-ala)le to the nited 'tates" According to this view if the &nited 'tates decides toadvance with such a /.D program China will respond so as to main% tain itsnuclear deterrence" It will moderni>e its IC/. 8eet Ja program it has alreadyinitiatedK develop further countermeasures to circumvent the /.D shield anddevelop the means to launch multiple A'A# attac!s" &ltimately an arms race

could ensue" #his however would not be Chinaschosen outcome" Itsdevelopment of space weapons is merely a counter% strategy to
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026596461000024Xhttp://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2008/Spring/blazejewski.pdfhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026596461000024Xhttp://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2008/Spring/blazejewski.pdf


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what it views as li!ely &' space weaponi>ation"OG China would muchprefer that the &nited 'tates negotiate a *A-' agreementnot tobuild the /.D shield"OR If this were the case Chinas 2anuary A'A# test wouldappear to be an attempt to get the &nited 'tates to the negotiatingtable" /y launching the A'A# China sought to put the &nited 'tates

on notice that any attempt to weaponi>e outer space would lead tothis mutu% ally undesirable path"

#he 5space sanctuary) idea is an irrational cold war relic %space is already being weaponi>ed

Dolman 11J7h and 7ro*essor o* Comparati-e Ailitary tdies, and Cooper, 9ormer epty o* the strate+ic and pace ystems, 11 (E-erett, 7h and 7ro*essor o* Comparati-e Ailitary tdies Y ;ir 9orce choolo* ;d-anced ;ir and pace tdies and Uecipient o* Central ntelli+ences tstandin+ ntelli+ence ;nalyst ;ward,and Venry, 9ormer epty *or the trate+ic and pace ystems o* the and Chairman o* Vi+h 9rontier, a non$pro8t or+ani>ation stdyin+ isses o* missile de*ense and space, Chapter 1&: ncreasin+ the Ailitary ses o*pace, 7art o* oward a heory o* pacepower, Edited )y Charles Stes and 7eter Vays, Fational e*ense

ni-ersity 7ress, http://www.nd.ed/press/li)/pd*/spacepower/spacepower.pd*, 'n this chapter, we maBe the case that opposition to increasin+ the militari>ation andweaponi>ation o* space is a misapplied le+acy o* the Cold


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was not achie-a)le and that seeBin+ to achie-e it was not desira)le. 7erhaps )ecase they were moti-ated)y +ilt *or their complicity in )rin+in+ the nclear )om) to *rition,these indi-idalspre*erred to rely solely on diplomacy and arms control and ar+ed a+ainste@ploitin+ technolo+y,which they )elie-ed wold only pro-oBe an arms race. hey ad-ocated this pointo* -iew at the hi+hest political le-elsNand they were -ery sccess*l in meetin+ their o)?ecti-es. ation o* nclearweapons is there*ore almost entirely limited to a role o* deterrence.


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in space, relia)le deterrents in space will decrease the possi)ility o* the nited tates attacBin+ Chinese space

assets. ;t a *ndamental le-el, space weapons I liBe nclear weapons I will not alter theessential natre o* war.hro+hot history, there has )een mch inB spilled o-ernew weapons that ha-e the niTe power and a)ility to chan+e the nderlyin+Tality o* war.9or e@ample, military theorists once e@a++erated the tanBs role indecidin+ the wars otcome drin+ ayl ar+es: H as with a-iation, access and technolo+y will dri-e *orward to e@ploit any and allwar8+htin+ rele-ance, application, and ad-anta+e *rom space, Tite independent o* a nationKs will to pre-ent it.

Vowe-er, sch prospects hold tre only i* commercial actors remained as tied toindi-idal nations as they were in the 1&th centry model o* mercantilism.chconditions are nliBely to +o-ern in space, +i-en the rapidly +rowin+internationali>ation o* space commerce, where companies may se technolo+y *rom se-eralcontries, )e )ased in another, and recei-e *ndin+ or contracts *rom cstomers in still other parts o* the world.

ch *actors are liBely to miti+ate the prported commercial demand *or de*enses. 9or these reasons, predictionsre+ardin+ the *tre o* space secrity )ased on the e@perience o* other past en-ironments and periods shold )e-iewed with at least some sBepticism. hs *ar, ar+ments and predictions a)ot ine-ita)le otcomes in spaceha-e held p srprisin+ly poorly.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964607000860http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964607000860


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#errorism;uclear terrorist threats are e(aggerated

Qert> and a!e 1ation, he said.


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At the Center of the 'torm, Ar. enet wrote that from the end of O


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/iological and chemical terrorism have too many barriers

'ievers 1(Uod, staf, http://news.sic.ed/news/cto)er01/100&01r112.html, dw: 10$&$2001, da: %$&$2011, lido'alley admits that )ioha>ards sch as anthra@ can do Tite a )it o* dama+e. 5t he notes that they are hard to

prodce in lar+e Tantities. P-ther materials such as 'arin gas are more

deadly #alley said Hbut again it is very di@cult to ac9uire thesematerials" ;nd anyone handlin+ this stf wold ha-e to Bnow what heKs doin+ in order to minimi>e the risBsto themsel-es. P#hereFs something to be concerned about regarding all thedi$erent ways that a terrorist might use bioha>ards in an attac!"/ut since each method and each type of chemical or biologicalinvolves so many factors it would be pretty di@cult to carry o$ asuccessful large%scale attac!"H

#heres no impact to chemical weaponsdilution weatherreverse contamination and historical e(amples prove

othstein Auer A;D 'igel R(Sinda, editor, Catherine, mana+in+ editor, and Jonas, assistanteditor o* the 5lletin o* ;tomic cientists, 5;, Fo-em)er/ecem)er, http://www.the)lletin.or+/article.phpart!o*n"nd04rothstein'n Phe ew o* eath,P Joel RilensBy and 7andy inish reconted the stran+e story o* lewisite, an arsenic$)asedchemical weapon de-eloped )y the Chemical e decayin+ mnitions that coldthreaten ci-ilians who li-e near stora+e sites. ome tiny amont o* worry shold pro)a)ly )e de-oted to leaBin+chemical mnitions.


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could be destroyed by terrorists wielding nuclear weapons" =et todestroy the &nited 'tates or any other large industrial state, in the senseo* inOictin+ sch dama+e to its +o-ernment, economy, poplation and in*rastrctre that it cold no lon+er *nction

as a coherent political and economic entity, would re9uire a large number of well%placed nuclear weapons with yields in the tens or hundreds of!ilotons" It is unli!ely that terrorists could successfully obtainemplace and detonate a single nuclear weapon while no plausibleradiological device or devices could do any signicant damage on anational level"

Catastrophic terrorism may be bad but it would have nopermanent e$ect on the &nited 'tates

.uller R(John,

GDI 12 Impact Defense

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