[GDC2015] Paying your own game - How mobile indies can maximizer their chances before global launch

Keith KatzCo-Founder

@Ztakk

A whole lot of numbers and graphs, and Keith was at times

less engaging than one might wish.“

“

Way to [sic] chart heavy.

““

Took to long to get to the point.

“

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Market is now impenetrable for small developers

Almost certain financial failure

Must have a plan beyond this game

Casual to Mid-Core Brawler

<Special Thanks to Lysiane Charest>

Core Exploration RPG

Core RPG

Core PVP City Builder

Shattered Planet Big Action Mega Fight

The Order of Souls WinterForts: Exiled Kingdom

Understanding the market and your studio’s goals

Where to test/soft launch your game

Icon testing

The impact of platform featuring

Revenue expectations

Forward-looking approaches

In December, CPI for iOS increased to $1.17…Android’s CPI

increased to $1.41.–Fiksu, January 2015“

“

The average cost-per-install of an iOS app is 85% higher than

that of Android Apps.–InMobi, September 2014“

“

WTF?

SuperData estimates that the current CPI for mobile games in

the Apple App Store stands at $2.73 and is trending up.–TabTimes, March 2014“

“

$5.37

$1.52

Canada Philippines

Facebook CPI* for WinterForts

on iOS

$1.05 $0.75

$0

$2

$4

Canada Indonesia

Chartboost CPI* for BAMF!

on iPhone

*October 2013 *August & September 2014

$6.28

$2.19

$0

$2

$4

$6

Australia Philippines

Facebook CPI* for TOoS

iPad

$3.92

$1.13

$0

$2

$4

$6

Australia Philippines

Facebook CPI* for TOoS

iPhone

*June 2014 *April & May 2014

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

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Facebook Daily CPI for WinterForts, Android tablets & phones

Philippines

75%

36%

15%8%

52%

19%

6% 2%

Tutorial End Day 1 Day 3 Day 7

WinterForts Paid Android Users

France Philippines

$2.62

$0.61

France Philippines

CPI

72%

32%

13%9%

53%

19%

5% 4%

Tutorial End Day 1 Day 3 Day 7

WinterForts Organic Android Users (Oct. 2014)

France Philippines

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

2

4

6

Day 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6

Min

ute

s

WinterForts Median Session Time for iPad3+ and iPhone 5+

Philippines United States Vietnam

$1.85

$1.60

Sweden Indonesia

The Order of Souls: iPad CPI

$1.84

$1.00

Sweden Indonesia

Shattered Planet: iPad CPI

$9k spent during soft launch (3 months, 2 platforms)

0

500

1000

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6

WinterForts iOS Installs

Organic Paid

0

500

1000

WinterForts Android Installs

Organic Paid

Tutorial Completed Day 1 Retention

51%61%

76%

V1 V2 V3

95%

97%

99%

V1 V2 V3

23%27%

36%

V1 V2 V3

Game Loaded

27%

17%13%

11%

38%

21%

19%13%

10% 8% 8%

23%

13%

10% 8%7% 6% 6%

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7

Absolute Retention By Source

Big Action Mega Fight! - US

Facebook Chartboost Organic

$2.18 $1.99

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Android iOS

BAMF CPI*: Canada

*February 2014 **January 2014

$2.74

$2.01

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Android* iOS**

SP CPI*: Canada

Attempt #1 Attempt #3

CTR Range: .52%-.57% CTR Range: .44%-.52%

Back to the Drawing Board!

Control

image and

copy in all

4 ads

Actual

icon

we’re

testing

.717% CTR

.618% CTR

1.085% CTR

1.194% CTR

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3Example Ad

Developer’s Choice

.8% CTR

1.3% CTR 1.1% CTR

1.6% CTR1.8% CTR1.7% CTR

Sadly, Facebook now forces you to use whatever small icon is currently live.

0

10000

20000

30000

Global Launch Daily Installs

Apple App Store

Shattered Planet BAMF Winterforts The Order of Souls

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

0

10000

20000

30000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Global Launch Daily Installs

Shattered Planet

Apple App Store Google Play Store

0

10000

20000

30000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Global Launch Daily Installs

WinterForts

Apple App Store Google Play Store

0

100

200

300

400

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Daily Installs for BAMF! Premium

Amazon Appstore Apple App Store Google Play Store

F2P Premium

Utilized F2P engine for project deal

Secured VC seed funding

Received CMF funding

Average time to Greenlight: 90 days

Shattered Planet time to Greenlight: 8 days

Results?

Two Months, F2P Mobile: $20k

Two Weeks, Premium PC: $45k

Leveraged F2P for Greenlight (premium)

Used F2P eyeballs for Kickstarter

Named by PC Gamer and Rock, Paper

Shotgun a “2015 game of the year”

Contact:[email protected]

@Ztakk

@ExecutionLabs