GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: 9M 2017 Review · PDF fileGCC Fixed Income Chart Book: ... Welcome to our 9M 2017 chart book for the GCC fixed income market. ... 30-09-2019 ALHILA (S)

GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: 9M 2017 Review

12 October 2017

2

Disclaimer

The information contained herein has been prepared by First Abu Dhabi Bank P.J.S.C (“FAB”). FAB relies on information

obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only and is not and does not form part of any offer for sale

or solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase or sell any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or

be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.

Some of the information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future

events or the future financial performance of FAB. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not

historical facts. The inclusion of such forward-looking information shall not be regarded as a representation by FAB or any

other person that the objectives or plans of FAB will be achieved. FAB undertakes no obligation to publicly update or

publicly revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

3

Foreword

Welcome to our 9M 2017 chart book for the GCC fixed income market. The idea is very simple – to give those of you who

follow this market a quick snapshot of some of the key points in terms of the following:

➢ Primary Market issuance year to date and the new issue trend over the past seven years

➢ Deal dynamics and relative value analysis

➢ Secondary Market performance of key instruments (snapshot from 30th December 2016 to 6th October 2017)

We have deliberately made the report text-light in an attempt to make it easier to digest. Hopefully you will find it both

interesting and useful.

If you have any feedback on the report, or indeed would like to discuss any of the points highlighted, please do contact me.

Regards,

Chavan Bhogaita / Rakesh Sahu

Market Insights & Strategy

Global Markets, FAB

[email protected]

+971 2 6110 127

Please click here to view our recent publications on MENA and Global Markets

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.nbad.com/en-ns/insight-and-features/mena-and-global-markets.html

4

GCC bonds & sukuk issuance year-to-date

Source: Bloomberg/FAB

For the analysis below we have considered major hard currency ($/€/£/A$) bonds and sukuk issuances from the six nations

in the GCC. This includes both fixed and floating rate issuances above $100m and maturity of 1-year or above.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD'17

23.2 21.118.2 18.4 18.9

15.0

54.6 55.62.4 4.8

14.1 11.413.7

7.6

14.4

20.9

24

Issuance projection for rest of 2017

Sukuk

Conventional bond

▪ 2017 will be another record year for

GCC fixed income primary market

▪ Total annual issuance now stands

at an all-time high

25.6

100

25.9

32.229.8

32.6

22.6

69.1

Total issuance

5

GCC sovereigns issued a record level of debt this year


GCC Sovereign issue trend

6.4 7.3 6.8

3.3 3.42.1

40.0

50.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD'17

Sov bond issue in US$ bn (LHS)

Avg brent price in $/bbl (RHS)

Sov

as % of

total

GCC

issue

25% 28% 21% 11% 10% 9% 58% 52%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

2016

2017Sov

issue

by

country

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Kuwait Oman Abu DhabiBahrain

UAE ex AD

US$ bn

6

Risk-reward offered by GCC Sov paper overshadows the Qatar situation – evidenced by recent order books

Source: Bloomberg/FAB; The credit ratings shown are from Moody’s/S&P/Fitch

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

20.0 20.0 20.0

Sp

read

ov

er

Tre

asu

ry (

bp

s)

IPT

Final Pricing

ADGB 5Y2.50% 11/10/2022

ADGB 10Y3.125% 11/10/2027

ADGB 30Y4.125% 11/10/2047

T+85

T+65

T+105

T+150

T+85

T+130

-20 bps

-20 bps

-20 bpsOrderbook size:

~$30bn (3.0x)

Deal size:

$10bn

Abu Dhabi (Aa2/AA/AA) 3-tranche deal in Oct

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

20.0 20.0 20.0

Sp

read

ov

er

Tre

asu

ry (

bp

s)

IPT

Final Pricing

KSA long 5Y2.875% 04/03/2023

KSA long 10Y3.625% 04/03/2028

KSA 30Y4.625% 04/10/2047

T+130

T+110

T+165

T+200

T+145

T+180

-20 bps

-20 bps

-20 bps

Orderbook size:

~$40bn (3.2x)

Deal size:

$12.5bn

KSA (A1/A-/A+) 3-tranche deal in Sep

Deal distribution by geography

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

KSA

ADGBMENA

22%

Europe

29%

Asia

10%

US

39%

MENA

8%

Europe

26%

Asia

18%

US

48%

Investor base for GCC Sovereigns are well diversified with more

than 75% of the demand coming from outside the MENA region

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

37.5 50.0 37.5

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

IPT

Final Pricing

BHRAIN7.5Y Suk5.25% 20/03/2025

BHRAIN12Y 6.75% 20/09/2029

BHRAIN 30Y 7.5% 20/09/2047

5.625%

5.25%

7.25%

7.875%

6.75%

7.50%

BHRAIN7.5Y Suk5.25% 20/03/2025

-37.5 bps

-50 bps

-37.5 bps

Orderbook size:

~$15bn (5x)

Combined

deal size:

$3bn

Bahrain (B1/BB-/BB+) 3-tranche deal in Sep

7

Overall demand remains anchored for GCC papers

0 2 4 6 8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Abu Dhabi 3-tranche (5y, 10y & 30y) in Oct

KSA 3-tranche (long 5y, long 10y & 30y) in Sep

Bahrain 3-tranche (7.5y sukuk, 12y & 30y) in Sep

Oman 7Y Sukuk in Jun

KSA 2-tranche Sukuk (5y & 10y) in Apr

Kuwait 2-tranche (5y & 10y) in Mar

Oman 3-tranche (5, 10 & 30y) in Mar

Inv. Corp. of Dubai 10Y Sukuk in Feb

Mubadala 2-tranche (5y & 10y)

Dubai Islamic Bank 5Y Sukuk

Omangrid 10Y Bond

National Bank Kuwait 5Y Bond

FAB 5Y Green Bond

Ahli Bank Qatar 5Y

Majid Al Futtaim Perp

Equate Petrochemical 7Y Sukuk

Qatar Reinsurance Perp

30.0

40.0

15.0

7.0

33.0

30.0

19.5

3.1

4.3

2.1

2.7

2.9

1.1

2.0

1.8

3.7

6.5

Abu Dhabi 3-tranche (5y, 10y & 30y) in Oct

KSA 3-tranche (long 5y, long 10y & 30y) in Sep

Bahrain 3-tranche (7.5y sukuk, 12y & 30y) in Sep

Oman 7Y Sukuk in Jun

KSA 2-tranche Sukuk (5y & 10y) in Apr

Kuwait 2-tranche (5y & 10y) in Mar

Oman 3-tranche (5, 10 & 30y) in Mar

Inv. Corp. of Dubai 10Y Sukuk in Feb

Mubadala 2-tranche (5y & 10y)

Dubai Islamic Bank 5Y Sukuk

Omangrid 10Y Bond

National Bank Kuwait 5Y Bond

FAB 5Y Green Bond

Ahli Bank Qatar 5Y

Majid Al Futtaim Perp

Equate Petrochemical 7Y Sukuk

Qatar Reinsurance Perp

45Amount in billion US$

Times oversubscribedOrderbookAmount issued


3.0x

5.0x

3.7x

3.8x

3.9x

3.1x

2.9x

2.7x

2.1x

3.9x

4.0x

3.2x

3.5x

2.2x

14.4x

7.4x

3.6x

Fin

s &

Co

rp.

Bo

nd

sS

ov

ere

ign

/SW

F B

on

ds

8

GCC sovereign credit ratings & CDS spreads versus peers

Notes: * X-axis represents the composite rating (please refer Appendix for calculation method); Dubai is not rated by any rating agency and we have assigned a proxy rating of ‘BBB+’ based on

its fundamentals with a relative comparison to DEWA (BBB+) & Emirate of Sharjah (BBB+). The ratings have been arranged from higher to lower starting from ‘AA’, followed by ‘AA-’ and so on;


Bahrain

Turkey

Russia

Indonesia

India

Dubai*

SpainMalaysia

Italy

Poland

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

China

Japan

South Korea

Abu Dhabi

Qatar

UK

France

Austria Belgium

Hong Kong

Kuwait

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

CD

S (

bp

s)

The chart shows that Gulf sovereigns are rated favourably as

compared to many of their peers from the EMEA region.

AA+ AA AA- A+ A A-AAA BBB BBB-BBB+ BB+ BB BB-

Indeed Abu Dhabi and Kuwait have maintained their AA ratings

from all major rating agencies amid a persistent low oil price

environment. The ratings of these sovereigns underpin the fact

that they have substantial reserves and a range of tools

available to them to deal with the “new normal” oil price and

other geo-political threats.

9

GCC sovereign curves


2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

5Y 10Y 30Y

Yie

ld t

o M

atu

rity

(%

)

ADGB KUWAIT QATAR KSA DUGB OMAN BAHRAIN

~5-year bonds ~10-year bonds ~30-year bonds

KUWIB 2.75 03/22

KUWIB 3.5 03/27

OMAN 3.875 03/22

BHRAIN 7.5 09/47

BHRAIN 6.125 07/22

BHRAIN 7.0 10/28

ADGB 2.5 10/22

QATAR 2.375 06/21

QATAR 4.625 06/46

KSA 2.875 03/23

KSA 4.625 10/47

DUGB 6.45 05/22

DUGB 5.25 01/43OMAN 5.375 03/27

OMAN 6.5 03/47

ADGB 4.125 10/47

DUGB 5 04/29

10

GCC credit quality at a glance

Note: The ratings mentioned here are composite credit rating for each issuer. Please see appendix for the methodology of calculating composite credit rating; * Dubai is not rated by any rating

agency and we have assigned a proxy rating of ‘BBB+’ based on its fundamentals with a relative comparison to DEWA (BBB+) & Emirate of Sharjah (BBB+); Source: Bloomberg/FAB

Unite

d A

rab

Em

ira

tes (

UA

E)

Em

ira

te o

f A

bu

Dha

bi

Ku

wa

it

Qa

tar

Kin

gd

om

of

Sa

ud

i A

rab

ia

Em

ira

te o

f R

as A

l-K

ha

ima

h

Em

ira

te o

f S

ha

rja

h

Em

ira

te o

f D

ub

ai*

Su

lta

na

te o

f O

ma

n

Kin

gd

om

of

Ba

hra

in

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Co

mp

osit

e R

ati

ng

AA+

AA

AA-

A+

A

A-

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

BB+

BB

Mu

ba

da

la

IPIC

TD

IC

Wa

ha

Qa

tari

Dia

r

Qa

tar

Pe

tro

leu

m

Etisa

lat

RA

SG

AS

Ind

ustr

ies Q

ata

r

Dolp

hin

En

erg

y

QG

TS

(N

akila

t)

SE

CO

SA

BIC

Etih

ad

Oo

red

oo

(Q

tel)

Qa

tar

Rein

su

ran

ce

Sa

ud

i T

ele

co

m

Ta

qa

DE

WA

MA

F

DIF

C In

ve

stm

en

t

DP

Wo

rld

JA

FZ

Ald

ar

EQ

UA

TE

Pe

tro

ch

em

OM

GR

ID

Em

aa

r M

alls G

rp

Ku

wa

it P

roje

cts

Co

Em

aa

r P

rop

Dub

ai In

v P

ark

Ezd

an

Ho

ldin

g

Mu

mta

laka

t

Ba

telc

o

Dam

ac

Inve

stc

orp

Dar

Al A

rka

n

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Co

mp

osit

e R

ati

ng

AA

AA-

A+

A

A-

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

BB+

BB

BB-

B+

AA+

B-

IsD

B

FA

B

NB

K

QN

B

Al-

Hila

l

UN

B

Ind

Ba

nk o

f K

uw

ait

Ku

wa

it I

ntl B

an

k

AD

CB

AD

IB

Doh

a B

an

k

QIB

QII

B

Al A

hli B

an

k o

f K

uw

ait

KF

H

CB

K

Gu

lf B

an

k

INT

BO

Q

Intn

l B

an

k o

f Q

ata

r

Em

ira

tes I

sla

mic

Ba

nk

Ah

li B

an

k Q

SC

Bo

ub

ya

n b

an

k

CB

Q

Al K

ha

lij

NC

B

Sa

mb

a

Al R

ajh

i

SA

BB

Riy

ad

Ba

nk

Dub

ai Is

lam

ic B

an

k

Noo

r

Gu

lf In

v C

orp

Bu

rga

n B

an

k

Wa

rba

Ba

nk

Ma

sh

req

BS

F

Ara

b N

atio

na

l B

an

k

Sa

ud

i H

olla

nd

i

HS

BC

Ba

nk O

ma

n

Sa

ud

i In

v B

an

k

Gu

lf In

tl B

an

k

Com

Ba

nk o

f D

ub

ai

Ta

mw

ee

l

Ba

nk o

f S

ha

rja

h

Sh

arja

h I

sla

mic

Ba

nk

RA

KB

AN

K

NB

F (

Fu

jair

ah

)

UA

B

Ah

li U

nite

d B

an

k

Om

an

Ara

b B

an

k

Ba

nk M

usca

t

NB

O

Ba

nk D

ho

far

Ba

nk S

oh

ar

Ah

li B

an

k S

AO

G

AB

C

NB

B

BB

K

Co

mp

osit

e R

ati

ng

AA+

AA

AA-

A+

A

A-

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

BB+

BB

AAA

GCC Sovereigns GCC Corporates

GCC Financials

BB-

BB-

B+

11

GCC spread performance summary – YTDTop 10 / bottom 10 bond/sukuk performers (z-spread, bps) in each category from 30th Dec 2016 to 6th Oct 2017

-90-60-300306090

+30

+12

+10

+3

+1

-0

-4

-5

-6

-7

-36

-37

-38

-39

-39

-39

-40

-45

-71

-85

Sovereigns

DUGB 43

RAKS 18 (S)

BHRAIN 18 (S) Unsec

KSA 26

DUGB 21 PUTA

BHRAIN 21

BHRAIN 22

QATAR 30

ADGB 21

DUGB 20

QATAR 21

SHARSK 24 (S)

QATDIA 20

ADGB 22 *11/10/17

BHRAIN 29 *20/9/17

ADGB 27 *11/10/17

QATAR 22

BHRAIN 47 *20/9/17

BHRAIN 28

QATAR 23 (S)

-180-150-120-90-60-300306090120

+87

+46

+42

+31

+30

+15

+13

+11

+10

+10

-79

-84

-90

-92

-98

-98

-99

-129

-149

-165

Financials

BGBKKK Jr Sub PERP

Nxt C: 30-09-2019

ALHILA (S) Jr Sub PERP

Nxt C: 30-06-2019

AUBBI Jr Sub PERP Nxt

C: 29-04-2020

BKDBOM Jr Sub PERP

Nxt C: 27-05-2020

EBIUH Jr Sub PERP Nxt

C: 17-09-2020

EBIUH Jr Sub PERP Nxt

C: 30-05-2019

ADIBUH (S) Jr Sub

PERP Nxt C: 16-10-2018

RAKBNK 19

FABUH Jr Sub PERP Nxt

C: 17-06-2020

FABUH 3.25 19

ALKHAL 18

INTBOQ 20

ADCBUH Sub CALL Nxt C: 28-05-

2018

QNBK 20

COMQAT 21

ABQKQD 21

QIBKQD 22 (S) *23/5/17

COMQAT 2.875 19

QIBKQD 20 (S)

COMQAT 7.5 19

-250-200-150-100-50050100150200

+22

+13

+11

-6

-13

-13

-13

-16

-16

-17

-79

-81

-95

-102

-125

-126

-132

-143

-163

-211

Corporates

DAMACR 19 (S)

GMSEDU (S) Jr Sub

PERP Nxt C: 21-11-2018

MAFUAE Jr Sub PERP

Nxt C: 29-10-2018

DOLNRG 19 Sec SINK

DPWDU 37

DARALA 19 (S)

DICUH 19 (S)

JAFZSK 19 (S)

KWIPKK 23

EMAAR 19 (S)

INTPET 23 €

QTELQD 18 (S)

TAQAUH 19

OMGRID 27 *16/5/17

MUBAUH 24 *19/4/17

SECO 22 (S)

KWIPKK 27 *23/2/17

RASGAS 19 Sec

QATIQD Sub PERP Nxt C: 13-

09-2022 *13/3/17

KHDRWY 25 (S) SINK

Notes: (1) We have used a list of GCC public debt which have maturity one year or more on the analysis date and for which FAB trading desk provides market price; (2) If the instrument is a

"Sukuk", the ticker contains "(S)"; (3) All bonds/sukuks are $ denominated unless any other currency is highlighted in the ticker. (3) All bonds/sukuks are senior unsecured debt of the issuer unless

an abbreviation for the debt type is highlighted in the ticker – e.g. – “Unsec” = Unsecured debt junior to Senior Unsecured debt; ; “Sub” = Subordinated; “Sr Sub” = Senior Subordinated; “Jr Sub” =

Junior Subordinated; “Perp” = Perpetual; Callable, Puttable and Sinkable is highlighted by using “Call”, “Puta”, & “Sink” respectively; (4) * highlights spread change from the 1st settlement date of

the bond as it was issued in 2017; Source: FAB/Bloomberg

12

Sovereigns spread performance – Abu Dhabi

Source: FAB/Bloomberg

AD

GB

19

AD

WA

20

SIN

K A

DG

B 2

1

AD

GB

22

*

11

/10

/17 AD

GB

26

AD

GB

27

*

11

/10

/17

AD

GB

47

*

11

/10

/17

-17 -21

-37

-4

-24

+1

-7

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

165

180

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

MaturityLong

term

Short

term06-Oct-1730-Dec-16 Curve on 30-Dec-16 Curve on 06-Oct-17

13

Sovereigns spread performance – Qatar

QA

TA

R 1

8 (

S)

QA

TA

R 1

9

QA

TA

R 2

0

QA

TD

IA 2

0

QA

TA

R 2

1

QA

TA

R 2

2

QA

TA

R 2

3 (

S)

QA

TA

R 2

6

QA

TA

R 3

0

QA

TA

R 4

0

QA

TA

R 4

2

QA

TA

R 4

6

+43

-21

-12

-5

-7

+3

+30

-19

-38

-25-25 -22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

Maturity

06-Oct-1730-Dec-16

Long

term

Short

term

Notes: (1) If the instrument is a "Sukuk", the ticker contains "(S)" next to the maturity year; (2) ** Included QATDIA in Qatar Sov curve as it is explicitly Govt guaranteed; Source: FAB/Bloomberg

Curve on 30-Dec-16 Curve on 06-Oct-17

14

Sovereigns spread performance – Kuwait

Notes: * Highlights spread change from the 1st settlement date of the bond as it was issued in 2017; Source: FAB/Bloomberg

KU

WIB

22

*2

0/3

/17

KU

WIB

27

*2

0/3

/17

-32

-32

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

MaturityLong

term

Short


15

Sovereigns spread performance – Saudi Arabia

KSA

21

KSA

22

(S)

*

20

/4/1

7

KSA

23

*

4/1

0/1

7

KSA

26

KSA

27

(S)

*

20

/4/1

7

KSA

28

*

4/1

0/1

7

KSA

46

KSA

47

*

4/1

0/1

7

-27 -23

-12

-40-35

-13

-22

-12

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

Maturity

Notes: * Highlights spread change from the 1st settlement date of the bond as it was issued in 2017; If "Sukuk" the ticker contains "(S)" next to the maturity year; Source: FAB/Bloomberg

Long

term

Short


16

Sovereigns spread performance – Dubai

DU

GB

20

DU

GB

21

P

UT

A

DU

GB

22

(S

) D

UG

B 2

3 (

S)

DU

GB

29

(S

)

DU

GB

43

-36

-39-25

-13

-15

-85

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

Maturity

06-Oct-1730-Dec-16

Long

term

Short

term

Notes: If "Sukuk" the ticker contains "(S)" next to the maturity year; Source: FAB/Bloomberg


17

Sovereigns spread performance – Sharjah


SH

AR

SK

21 (

S)

SH

AR

SK

24 (

S)

-15

-6

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

MaturityLong

term

Short


18

Sovereigns spread performance – Ras Al Khaimah


RA

KS

18 (

S)

RA

KS

25 (

S)

-22

-16

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

MaturityLong

term

Short


19

Sovereigns spread performance – Oman

OM

AN

21

OM

AN

22

*

8/3

/17

OM

AN

26

OM

AN

27

*

8/3

/17

OM

AN

47

*

8/3

/17

-26

-16

-16 -28

-15

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

Maturity

06-Oct-1730-Dec-16

Long

term

Short

term

Notes: * Highlights spread change from the 1st settlement date of the bond as it was issued in 2017; If "Sukuk" the ticker contains "(S)" next to the maturity year; Source: FAB/Bloomberg


20

Sovereigns spread performance – Bahrain

BH

RA

IN 1

8 (

S) U

nse

c

BH

RA

IN 2

0 BH

RA

IN 2

1

BH

RA

IN 2

2

BH

RA

IN 2

3

BH

RA

IN 2

4 (

S)

BH

RA

IN 2

5 (

S)

*2

0/9

/17

BH

RA

IN 2

6

BH

RA

IN 2

8

BH

RA

IN 2

9

*2

0/9

/17

BH

RA

IN 4

4

BH

RA

IN 4

7

*2

0/9

/17

-19

-30

-39

-39-29 -10

-19

-22

+12

unch

-31

+10

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

z-s

pre

ad

(b

ps)

Maturity

06-Oct-1730-Dec-16

Long

term

Short

term



21

Appendix


➢ As mentioned in above slides, we have used “composite ratings” for the credit quality analysis – i.e. the average of the

ratings assigned by three leading rating agencies Moody’s, S&P and Fitch – in order to provide a more representative

view of the credit strength of each bank.

➢ The composite rating is calculated as follows:

• A score is assigned to the rating from each rating agency: AAA or equivalent being the best with a score of “1”,

followed by AA+ or equivalent as “2”, AA or equivalent as “3”, AA- or equivalent as “4” and so on;

• For example FAB is rated Aa3/AA-/AA- by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch. So the scores are 4/4/4;

• Hence the average of the scores is “4” which indicates a composite rating of “AA-” for FAB;

• In case the average score is not an absolute number – e.g. 4.33 (average of 4, 5, & 4 ) – the final score is derived by

rounding off the average score to the nearest whole number. In this case “4”.

Thank You

Contact:

Chavan Bhogaita / Rakesh Sahu

Market Insights & Strategy

Global Markets

First Abu Dhabi Bank

Tel: +971 2 6110 127

[email protected]

Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets

Please click here to view our recent publications

on MENA and Global Markets

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.nbad.com/en-ns/insight-and-features/mena-and-global-markets.html

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