GBP/USD 1971 2011files.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/GaPohY32AN... · EUR/USD VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 M ay ‐ 0 2 Se p 02
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www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX
GBP/USD 1971 ‐ 2011
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
£ ‐ $
GBP/USD 2003 ‐ 2011
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
£ ‐ $
USD/JPY 1971 ‐ 2011
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐Yen
USD/JPY 2003 ‐ 2011
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐Yen
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 1 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX
EUR/USD 1975 ‐ 2011
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Eur‐US$
EUR/USD 2003 ‐ 2011
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Eur‐US$
USD/AUS 1971 ‐ 2011
0.45
0.65
0.85
1.05
1.25
1.45
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐AU$
USD/AUS 2003 ‐ 2011
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
US$‐AU$
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 2 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FOREX VS BALTIC DRY INDICES
USD/AUS VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
US$‐AU$BDI
EUR/USD VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Eur‐US$BDI
USD/AUS VS BALTIC CAPE INDEX 2001 ‐ 2011
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
US$‐AU$BCI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 3 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS FINANCIAL INDICES VS BALTIC DRY INDICES
CRB INDEX VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2002 ‐ 2011
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BDI
S&P500 VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003 ‐ 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
S&P500BDI
DOW INDUSTRIAL VS BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003 ‐ 2011
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
DOW‐IndBDI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 4 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS COMMODITY PRICES
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 1987 ‐ 2011
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Brent Oil
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 2005 ‐ 2011
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Brent Oil
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 1987 ‐ 2011
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
WTI Spot Price
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 2005 ‐ 2011
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
WTI Spot Price
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 5 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS COMMODITY PRICES
GOLD PRICE PER OUNCE 1970 ‐ 2011
20
220
420
620
820
1020
1220
1420
Jan‐70
Jan‐71
Jan‐72
Jan‐73
Jan‐74
Jan‐75
Jan‐76
Jan‐77
Jan‐78
Jan‐79
Jan‐80
Jan‐81
Jan‐82
Jan‐83
Jan‐84
Jan‐85
Jan‐86
Jan‐87
Jan‐88
Jan‐89
Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Gold
GOLD PRICE PER OUNCE 2005 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Gold
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 6 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES & IMF GDP GROWTH
World Major advanced economies (G7) Developing Asia
India China, People's Republic of Emerging and developing economies
European Union BDI Annual average
BALTIC DRY INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BDI
SOURCE: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 7 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BALTIC CAPE INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
12400
14400
16400
18400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BCI
BALTIC CAPE INDEX 2002 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
12400
14400
16400
18400
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
BCI
BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 1999 ‐ 2011
400
2400
4400
6400
8400
10400
May‐99
Sep‐99
Jan‐00
May‐00
Sep‐00
Jan‐01
May‐01
Sep‐01
Jan‐02
May‐02
Sep‐02
Jan‐03
May‐03
Sep‐03
Jan‐04
May‐04
Sep‐04
Jan‐05
May‐05
Sep‐05
Jan‐06
May‐06
Sep‐06
Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐11
BPI
S&P500 VS BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐1500
500
2500
4500
6500
8500
10500
12500
S&P500BPI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 8 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2006 ‐ 2011
400
1400
2400
3400
4400
5400
6400
7400
Apr‐06
Jun‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
BSI
BALTIC HANDYMAX INDEX 2006 ‐ 2011
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Jun‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Jun‐08
Aug‐08
Oct‐08
Dec‐08
Feb‐09
Apr‐09
Jun‐09
Aug‐09
Oct‐09
Dec‐09
Feb‐10
Apr‐10
Jun‐10
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
BHI
S&P500 VS BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
S&P500BSI
S&P500 VS BALTIC HANDYMAX INDEX 2007 ‐ 2011
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
Dec‐07
Jan‐08
Feb‐08
Mar‐08
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
S&P500BHI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 9 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC DRY INDICES
BDI vs WORLD TRADE VOLUME 2003 ‐ 2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
WORLD TRADE FIGURES JUST RELEASED IN DEC 2010 COVERING UP TO OCT 2010.
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
BDI ‐ MONTHLY AVGWT VOLUME
SOURCE: International Monetary Fund
CRB INDEX (REUTERS‐JEFFERIES) VS BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX 2008 ‐ 2011
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
1500
3500
5500
7500
9500
11500
CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BPI
CRB INDEX (REUTERS‐JEFFERIES) VS BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX 2008 ‐ 2011
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
Apr‐08
May‐08
Jun‐08
Jul‐08
Aug‐08
Sep‐08
Oct‐08
Nov‐08
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09
Apr‐09
May‐09
Jun‐09
Jul‐09
Aug‐09
Sep‐09
Oct‐09
Nov‐09
Dec‐09
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
‐500
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500CRB Index (Reuters‐Jefferies)BSI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 10 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC INDICESBALTIC DRY BULK INDICES BLOW UP FOR 2010
BALTIC TANKER INDICES BLOW UP FOR 2010
BDI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BDI
BCI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BCI
BPI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BPI
BSI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BSI
BHI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BHI
BCTI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BCTI
BDTI JAN 2010 ‐ JAN 2011
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Jan‐10
Feb‐10
Mar‐10
Apr‐10
May‐10
Jun‐10
Jul‐10
Aug‐10
Sep‐10
Oct‐10
Nov‐10
Dec‐10
Jan‐11
Feb‐11
BDTI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 11 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS BALTIC INDICES
BALTIC CLEAN TANKER INDEX 1998 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
BCTI
BALTIC CLEAN TANKER INDEX VS BRENT CRUDE OIL 2007 ‐ 2011
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
Jul‐07
Sep‐07
Nov‐07
Jan‐08
Mar‐08
May‐08
Jul‐08
Sep‐08
Nov‐08
Jan‐09
Mar‐09
May‐09
Jul‐09
Sep‐09
Nov‐09
Jan‐10
Mar‐10
May‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Nov‐10
Jan‐11
30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
110.00
130.00
150.00
BCTIBrent Oil
BALTIC DIRTY TANKER INDEX 1998 ‐ 2011
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
BDTI
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 12 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
BALTIC DRY INDEX VS CAPITAL LINK DRYBULK INDEX 2005 ‐2011
200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CL Drybulk Index (CLDBI)
BDI
CAPITAL LINK DRYBULK INDEX (CLDBI) 2005 ‐2011
200
1200
2200
3200
4200
5200
6200
7200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Drybulk Index (CLDBI)
CAPITAL LINK MARITIME INDEX (CLMI) 2005 ‐2011
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
4700
5200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Maritime Index (CLMI)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 13 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
CAPITAL LINK TANKER INDEX (CLTI) 2005 ‐2011
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Tanker Index (CLTI)
CAPITAL LINK CONTAINER INDEX (CLCI) 2005 ‐2011
400
1400
2400
3400
4400
5400
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Container Index (CLCI)
CAPITAL LINK LNG/LPG INDEX (CLLG) 2005 ‐2011
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL LNG/LPG Index (CLLG)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 14 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS CAPITAL LINK INDICES
ALL CAPITAL LINK INDICES (CLI'S) USED WITH THE EXPRESS PERMISSION OF CAPITAL LINK INC - NEW YORK
The Index Composition is as follows:
The Capital Link Maritime Index is comprised of all 44 companies currently listed on the U.S. Exchanges. In terms of historic data, as of January 1, 2005, companies which were listed in the past and got delisted at some point
of time, have been included in the Maritime Index and the sector indices for the period they were listed.
The Capital Link Dry Bulk Index contains the following 15 companies: Baltic Trading Limited (NYSE: BALT), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ: EGLE), , Excel Maritime
(NASDAQ: PRGN), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Seanergy Maritime Holdings (NASDAQ: SHIP), Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ: SBLK), and TBS International Plc (NASDAQ: TBSI).
The Capital Link Tanker Index is comprised of the following 19 companies: B & H Ocean Carriers (NYSE: BHO), Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), Crude Carriers Corp. (NYSE:CRU), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Frontline
A/S (NASDAQ: TRMD), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP).
The Capital Link Container Index in is comprised of the following 6 companies: Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE: ALEX), Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), Euroseas Ltd. (NASDAQ: ESEA), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Horizon Lines Inc.
(NYSE: HRZ) and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW).
The Capital Link LNG / LPG Index is comprised of the following 3 companies: Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG), StealthGas Inc. (NASDAQ: GASS) and Teekay LNG (NYSE: TGP)
The Capital Link Mixed Fleet Index is comprised of the following 6 companies: Euroseas Ltd. (NADAQ: ESEA), B & H Ocean Carriers (NYSE: BHO), NewLead Holdings, Ltd (NASDAQ: NEWL), OceanFreight Inc. (NASDAQ: OCNF),
Ship Finance Intl. (NYSE: SFL) and Top Ships (NASDAQ: TOPS).
The Capital Link Maritime MLP Index is comprised of the following 5 companies: Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP), Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM), OSG America LP (NYSE: OSP), Teekay LNG (NYSE: TGP) and
Teekay Offshore Partners (NASDAQ: TOO).
CAPITAL LINK MIXED FLEET INDEX (CLMFI) 2005 ‐2011
400
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Mixed Fleet Index (CLMFI)
CAPITAL LINK MLP INDEX (CLMLP) 2005 ‐2011
300
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
Aug‐05
Nov‐05
Feb‐06
May‐06
Aug‐06
Nov‐06
Feb‐07
May‐07
Aug‐07
Nov‐07
Feb‐08
May‐08
Aug‐08
Nov‐08
Feb‐09
May‐09
Aug‐09
Nov‐09
Feb‐10
May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
CL Mixed Fleet Index (CLMFI)
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 15 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO SHIP VALUES
DRY CARGO NEWBUILDING PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$15
$25
$35
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 5 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$10
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 16 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO SHIP VALUES
DRY CARGO 10 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 15 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
DRY CARGO 20 YEAR OLD PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPE 170K PANAMAX 70K
HANDYMAX 45K HANDIES 30K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 17 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS TANKER SHIP VALUES
TANKER NEWBUILDING PRICES 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 5 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 18 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS TANKER SHIP VALUES
TANKER 10 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 15 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
TANKER 20 YEAR OLD PRICES 1993 ‐ 2011
$0
$8
$15
$23
$30
$38
$45
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
VLCC 300K SUEZ 150K AFRA 110K
PANAMAX 70K PROD 45K
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 19 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
CAPESIZE 250‐130,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
CAPESIZE 250‐130,000DWT
POST PANAMAX 129‐88,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
POST PANAMAX 129‐88,000DWT
KAMSARMAX 86‐80,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 2008 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
KAMSARMAX 86‐80,000DWT
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 20 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
SUPRAMAX 60‐50,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
SUPRAMAX 60‐50,000DWT
HANDYMAX 50‐40,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
HANDYMAX 50‐40,000DWT
PANAMAX 80‐60,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 2008 ‐ 2011
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
PANAMAX 80‐60,000DWT
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 21 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2011
MARITIME ECONOMETRICS DRY CARGO T/C EARNINGS
HANDIES 40‐30,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
HANDIES 40‐30,000DWT
BULK CARRIERS 30‐12,000 DWT ‐ AVERAGE EARNINGS 1990 ‐ 2011
$3,000
$13,000
$23,000
$33,000
$43,000
$53,000
$63,000
$73,000
Jan‐90
Jul‐90
Jan‐91
Jul‐91
Jan‐92
Jul‐92
Jan‐93
Jul‐93
Jan‐94
Jul‐94
Jan‐95
Jul‐95
Jan‐96
Jul‐96
Jan‐97
Jul‐97
Jan‐98
Jul‐98
Jan‐99
Jul‐99
Jan‐00
Jul‐00
Jan‐01
Jul‐01
Jan‐02
Jul‐02
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
SMALL BULKERS 30‐12,000DWT
12 MOS T/C CAPESIZE (2003‐2011)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C CAPESIZE
12 MOS T/C PANAMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C PANAMAX
12 MOS T/C SUPRAMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C SUPRAMAX
12 MOS T/C 49‐40,000 HMAX (2003‐2011)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Jan‐03
Jul‐03
Jan‐04
Jul‐04
Jan‐05
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
12 MOS T/C 49‐40,000 HMAX
N. COTZIAS SHIPPING GROUPSHIPBROKERS SINCE 1893 [email protected] Page 22 of 31
www.cotzias.gr N. COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTSMONTHLY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK