GBP/SGD: 1 - UOB GroupFX Insights Friday, 02 September 2016 5 | P a g e EUR/SGD: 1.5225 24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The 1.5171/1.5230 range was very close to our expected sideway

FX Insights Friday, 02 September 2016 1 | P a g e

Quek Ser Leang [email protected] Lee Sue Ann [email protected] Global Economics & Markets Research

Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research

Friday, 02 September 2016 FX Insights

Chart Of The Day – GBP/SGD: 1.8045 Strong 1.8015 resistance is breached, room for extension above 1.8115.

The bullish phase that started last Wednesday (see Chart of the Day on 25/8/16, spot at 1.7835) sprang to life by surging

above the strong 1.8015 resistance. In our updates over the past few days, we suggested taking profit at this level in view of

the waning short-term momentum. The sudden surge has shifted the focus towards the next strong resistance which is at

1.8115 (the high in July). Based on the current momentum indicators, a move above this level would not be surprising. The next

resistance is closer to 1.8295. Strong support is at 1.7965/70 but only a breach of the current stop-loss at 1.7870 (adjusted

from 1.7750) would indicate that the current bullish phase has ended.

mailto:[email protected]



http://www.uobgroup.com/assets/pdfs/research/FXI_160825.pdf


OVERVIEW

Thursday was the first trading session in September, which has historically been a volatile month for equities. The major US

equity indexes closed mostly flat, whilst US Treasuries saw modest further gains following the weaker-than-expected ISM

manufacturing reading for August. In the oil market, prices again retreated on the back of concerns over a supply glut after data

previously showed a build-up in US crude stockpiles. The US dollar weakened against the major currencies, with the EUR near

1.12 and the JPY around 103.20.

Needless to say, all eyes are on tonight’s US non-farm payrolls report for August. Our team continues to expect a 250k rise in

non-farm payrolls versus consensus gain of 180k. Consensus expects the report to come in at 180k, and for the unemployment

rate to edge down to 4.8%. The July trade balance and factory orders reports will shed a bit more light on GDP growth in Q3.

Richmond Fed’s Lacker is scheduled to speak on “Interest Rate Benchmarks”. Note that the US is on holiday on Monday (Labor

Day) so it will be a shortened session.

Interest will also be on the G20 Leaders’ Summit slated for 4-5 September in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou. The focus

of the summit will be on sustained global growth given uncertainties from Brexit, slowing trade and terrorism. US President

Barack Obama is in Asia on 2-9 September, his 11th visit to Asia since taking office in 2009. He will be at the G20 summit and is

scheduled to meet up with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He will also be the first US president to visit Laos.

Latest Flash Note: 29 Aug 16

After The Talk, Focus Now On The Jobs http://bit.ly/2bVTQPw

http://bit.ly/2bVTQPw


* Shift in outlook.

* Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-15.

02-Sep-16 Summary of Views

FX Pairs Spot Outlook Since/ Rate

Target Trailing-Stop Support Resistance

USD/SGD 1.3595 Bullish 25 Aug 16

1.3540 1.3750 1.3645

1.3550 1.3500

S1: 1.3550 S2: 1.3510

R1: 1.3660 R2: 1.3720

EUR/SGD 1.5225 Neutral 29 Aug 16

1.5230 - -

S1: 1.5170 S2: 1.5100

R1: 1.5260 R2: 1.5300

GBP/SGD 1.8045 Bullish 24 Aug 16

1.7835 1.8115 1.8015

1.7870 1.7750

S1: 1.7965 S2: 1.7870

R1: 1.8115 R2: 1.8295

AUD/SGD 1.0265 Neutral 18 Aug 16

1.0270 - -

S1: 1.0240 S2: 1.0220

R1: 1.0290 R2: 1.0330

JPY/SGD 1.3165 Bearish 31 Aug 16

1.3255 1.3050 1.3155

1.3260 1.3300

S1: 1.3105 S2: 1.3050

R1: 1.3200 R2: 1.3260

USD/MYR 4.0860 Bullish 01 Sep 16

4.0780 4.1050 4.0860

4.0500 S1: 4.0600 S2: 4.0500

R1: 4.1050 R2: 4.1310

USD/THB 34.60 Neutral 29 Aug 16

34.68 - -

S1: 34.55 S2: 34.51

R1: 34.66 R2: 34.71

USD/CNH 6.6860 Bullish 29 Aug 16

6.6990 6.7170

6.6750 6.6650

S1: 6.6860 S2: 6.6750

R1: 6.7025 R2: 6.7170

CNH/SGD 0.2035 Neutral 29 Aug 16

0.2032 - -

S1: 0.2030 S2: 0.2027

R1: 0.2037 R2: 0.2041

EUR/USD 1.1190 Bearish 31 Aug 16

1.1150 1.1070 1.1210

S1: 1.1160 S2: 1.1120

R1: 1.1210 R2: 1.1250

GBP/USD 1.3275 *Bullish 02 Sep 16

1.3275 1.3370 1.3130

S1: 1.3180 S2: 1.3130

R1: 1.3320 R2: 1.3370

AUD/USD 0.7550 Bearish 29 Aug 16

0.7550 0.7485

0.7600 0.7630

S1: 0.7520 S2: 0.7485

R1: 0.7580 R2: 0.7600

NZD/USD 0.7285 Bearish 29 Aug 16

0.7230 0.7170 0.7310

S1: 0.7260 S2: 0.7200

R1: 0.7310 R2: 0.7350

USD/JPY 103.20 Bullish 29 Aug 16

102.00 104.00 102.80

102.00 101.50

S1: 102.70 S2: 102.00

R1: 103.55 R2: 104.00

FX Pairs Ranges for 01-Sep-16 Performance*

Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD**

USD/SGD 1.3620 1.3654 1.3585 1.3596 -0.27% +0.46% +1.43% -4.11%

EUR/SGD 1.5197 1.5230 1.5171 1.5215 +0.11% -0.28% +1.23% -1.20%

GBP/SGD 1.7897 1.8122 1.7871 1.8033 +0.77% +1.06% +0.85% -13.6%

AUD/SGD 1.0236 1.0288 1.0227 1.0263 +0.26% -0.37% +0.73% -0.47%

JPY/SGD 1.3169 1.3212 1.3103 1.3163 -0.05% -2.17% -0.79% +11.8%

USD/MYR 4.0510 4.0790 4.0510 4.0740 +0.64% +1.59% +1.09% -5.03%

USD/THB 34.60 34.67 34.55 34.59 -0.08% +0.11% -0.46% -3.99%

USD/CNH 6.6925 6.6940 6.6840 6.6865 -0.07% +0.28% +0.79% +1.80%

EUR/USD 1.1155 1.1205 1.1126 1.1196 +0.35% -0.73% -0.25% +3.02%

GBP/USD 1.3140 1.3318 1.3128 1.3269 +1.00% +0.57% -0.64% -9.91%

AUD/USD 0.7520 0.7559 0.7505 0.7552 +0.42% -0.86% -0.72% +3.66%

NZD/USD 0.7248 0.7295 0.7228 0.7284 +0.45% -0.21% +0.59% +6.73%

USD/JPY 103.41 104.00 103.03 103.23 -0.18% +2.70% +2.32% -14.2%


USD/SGD: 1.3595

Singapore’s August manufacturing PMI, including the electronics sector PMI are scheduled for release at 9.00 pm today. The

contraction in US ISM Manufacturing sent USD/SGD to a low of 1.3586 overnight from high of 1.3654 earlier in the session. The

trade-weighted SGD NEER is trading at around 0.5% above the midpoint this morning. We expect the SGD NEER to remain

between the midpoint and 1.0% above the midpoint, implying the USD/SGD range of 1.3535 – 1.3670 based on current FX

levels.


Headline Deflation Persisted For Nearly 2 Years, But Core Inflation Still Holding On - http://bit.ly/2bMiLCr

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

While the actual range of 1.3585/1.3654 yesterday was

reasonably close to our expected consolidation range of

1.3595/1.3650, the rapid drop from the peak and the weak

daily closing have increased the risk of a deeper down-move

from here. Unless USD can surmount 1.3620, the current

downward pressure could push it lower for today. That said,

1.3550 is key major support and this level is unlikely to yield

so easily. The resistance above 1.3620 is at 1.3655/60 which

is acting as a rather formidable level.

Bullish: To take partial profit at 1.3720/25.

The sharp drop from 1.3654 yesterday (which is just below

Wednesday’s high of 1.3660) has clearly dented the recent

strong upward momentum. However, confirmation of a short-

term top is only upon a break of the prevailing stop-loss at

1.3550. That said, we are still seeing very strong resistances

at 1.3745/50 and those who are long from last week should

continue to look to book partial profit at 1.3720/25. A break of

1.3550 would shift the bullish USD outlook to neutral and

suggests the start of a neutral consolidation phase.

http://bit.ly/2bMiLCr


EUR/SGD: 1.5225


The 1.5171/1.5230 range was very close to our expected

sideway trading range of 1.5170/1.5230. The outlook is still

mixed but the improved undertone could lead to a test higher

towards the 1.5260 resistance. For now, a sustained move

above this level is not expected. The support at 1.5170 is

likely strong enough to hold for today.

Neutral: In a 1.5100/1.5300 range.

While the improved short-term undertone could lead to a

probe higher in the next few days, the 2 to 3 weeks neutral

phase that started on Monday is still intact. In other words,

this pair is unlikely to go anywhere far anytime soon and we

expect trading to be confined within a 1.5100/1.5300 range

for now.

GBP/SGD: 1.8045


The anticipated GBP strength exceeded our expectation by a

wide margin. The strong 1.7965/70 was easily taken out as

GBP surged to an overnight high of 1.8122. Despite the

sharp pull-back from the top, the immediate pressure is still

on the upside and a retest of 1.8120/25 would not be

surprising. Support is at 1.8000 but only a move back below

1.7965/70 (the previous resistance) would indicate that a

short-term top is in place.

Bullish: Strong 1.8015 resistance is breached, room for

extension above 1.8115. [See Chart of the Day on page 1]

*Took partial profit at 1.8015.

AUD/SGD: 1.0265


The initial dip in AUD did not threaten the key support at

1.0220 (low of 1.0226). While the downward pressure has

eased with the strong rebound from the low, the current

movement is viewed as a broader sideway consolidation

instead of the start of a sustained up-move (even though the

immediate bias is for a probe higher). Expected range for

today, 1.0240/1.0290.


The immediate downward pressure has eased with the

recent failures to break below the key 1.0220 support. While

the outlook for AUD is still deemed as neutral, this pair is

more likely to trade sideways within a 1.0220/1.0330 range

as the prospect for a deeper down-move below 1.0220 has

lessened considerably.

JPY/SGD: 1.3165


In line with expectation, the initial bounce in JPY held below

1.3250 (high of 1.3212) but the subsequent drop exceeded

our expectation by taking out the 1.3150 support to touch a

low of 1.3103. The equally rapid rebound from the low

suggests that a temporary bottom is in place and a move

below 1.3100 is not expected for now. From here, allow for a

dip to 1.3135 but 1.3100 is expected to hold for a move

higher to 1.3200.

Bearish: To take partial profit at current level.

The bearish JPY phase that started on Wednesday (see

Chart of the Day on 31/8/16, spot at 1.3255) is moving at a

much faster pace than expected. Not only was the immediate

target at 1.3155 exceeded, the sharp drop yesterday tested

the major support at 1.3100/05 (low of 1.3103). While further

decline in the days ahead would not be surprising (next

support at 1.3050), the rapid drop coupled with the strong

bounce from a major 1.3100/05 support suggests that the

current down-move may not be sustained. Those who are

short may like to take partial profit at current level. That said,

the bearish phase is intact until there is a move above the

stop-loss at 1.3260 (adjusted from 1.3300).

*Took partial profit at 1.3165



USD/MYR: 4.0860

USD/MYR is softer this morning on a weakening dollar but losses are capped amid persistent oil price weakness. On the data

front, Malaysia’s Nikkei PMI was seen falling to 47.4 in August from 48.1 in July.


July CPI +1.1%; Puts Inflation On The Backburner http://bit.ly/2bCPbmq

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Bullish: Immediate 4.0860 objective exceeded, focus on 4.1050 now.

We turned bullish USD yesterday (see Chart of the Day update) and the immediate target at 4.0860 was exceeded this

morning. The outlook is still clearly bullish and from here, the next level to focus on is at 4.1050 followed by 4.1310. Stop-loss

remains unchanged at 4.0500 for now.

USD/THB: 34.60

Thailand’s headline inflation remained benign in August, coming in at 0.29% y/y (est: 0.43%, prev: 0.10%). In terms of monetary

policy implications, we expect the BoT to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.50% in its 14 September meeting since current

monetary conditions remain conducive to the ongoing economic recovery and further monetary policy easing would provide

limited support to the economic expansion. We also see the need to preserve policy space should the economic recovery

become affected by negative risk factors in the future.


July Trade Data Continues To Disappoint http://bit.ly/2c0XK8a

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Neutral: In a 34.51/34.71 consolidation range.

The recent short-term positive undertone has fizzled out as USD dropped sharply after touching a high of 34.67 yesterday.

While the outlook is still considered neutral, USD is more likely to consolidate within a 34.51/34.71 range instead of extending its

rebound to 34.80 as expected previously. A clear break out of the range would be a good indication of the start of a sustained

directional move.

USD/CNH: 6.6860

The PBoC set the central parity for CNY 0.19% stronger at 6.6784/USD on Thursday, leading the CNY and offshore CNH to

firm against USD. CNY ended up at 6.6750/USD on Thursday from 6.6793 on Wednesday while offshore CNH rose to

6.6858/USD from 6.6915 on Wednesday. In China, traders will remain cautious ahead of US non-farm payrolls tonight and the

G20 summit starting this weekend. Meanwhile, August PMI releases on Thursday were mixed. China’s official manufacturing

PMI surged to 50.4 from 49.9 in July, the highest since November 2014. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI which mainly

surveyed the SMEs was lower at 50.0 from 50.6 in July. China’s official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.5 in August from

53.9 in July.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Bullish: Decreased odds for further USD strength.

Momentum indicators are showing signs of slowing and unless USD can move clearly above the Monday’s high of 6.7025

within the next few days, the odds for further USD strength would diminish quickly. However, confirmation that the current

bullish phase has ended is only upon a breach of the stop-loss at 6.6750. Until then, another leg higher to the target at 6.7170

cannot be ruled out even though the odds for such a move have lessened.

CNH/SGD: 0.2035

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:


CNH edged briefly above the strong 0.2039 resistance yesterday (high of 0.2041) but the up-move was quickly reversed. The

recent build-up in momentum has fizzled out and this pair is expected to trade sideways within a broad 0.2026/0.2042 range

from here.

http://bit.ly/2bCPbmq


http://bit.ly/2c0XK8a


EUR/USD: 1.1190 EUR/USD also jumped higher on the ISM release but topped out just above 1.12. The Markit manufacturing PMI for the Euro

area was revised down 0.1pt to a final August reading of 51.7, down from 52.0 in July. The German manufacturing PMI was

confirmed at the preliminary reading of 53.6 in August, down from 52.0 in July. The French manufacturing PMI was revised

down 0.2pt to 48.3 in August, thus falling 0.3pts on the month. The Italian PMI was down 1.4pt to 49.8 whilst Spain’s PMI was

unchanged at 51.0. The Scandinavian manufacturing PMIs were all weaker in August, as often seems to be the case. Today,

we will be getting another reading on Italy’s GDP growth in Q2.


The sharp spike higher in EUR was clearly unexpected but at

this stage, the up-move appears to be running ahead of

itself. However, another attempt to move towards the strong

resistance at 1.1230 would not be surprising. Support is at

1.1160 but the major support is near the recent low near

1.1120/25.

Bearish: Increasing risk of short-term low.

The stop-loss for our bearish EUR view is barely intact at

1.1210. The unexpected strong recovery yesterday has

clearly increased the risk of a short-term low. A move above

1.1210 would indicate the start of a neutral consolidation

phase, likely between 1.1120 and 1.1280. Only a clear break

below the major 1.1120 support would indicate that the next

leg lower has started.


GBP/USD: 1.3275

The main mover was the GBP, which rose after the UK PMI posted a big upward surprise for August. Not only did this recover

its post-referendum slump, but with a 5pt increase to 53.3 it posted its best reading since October last year, suggesting that

the weak GBP may already be making a positive contribution to exports. It will be very interesting to see how the services PMI

looks when that is released coming Monday.


GBP soared to touch 1.3318, the highest level in 4 weeks.

While upward momentum is very strong, the rally appears to

be over-extended and the pace of any further gains would

likely be slower and the strong 1.3370/75 resistance (high in

early August) is unlikely to come under serious threat.

Support is at 1.3230 but only a move back below 1.3180

would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has

eased.

Shift from neutral to bullish: Target 1.3370/75.

The sudden surge higher in GBP is clearly not expected.

Strong upward momentum coupled with the breach of major

resistances has shifted the outlook to bullish again. However,

July’s peak of 1.3370/75 is another major resistance and this

level may not be easy to crack. Support is at 1.3180 but only

a move below 1.3130 would indicate that our bullish

expectation is wrong.


AUD/USD: 0.7550

AUD is holding up well, against a lower greenback. In news, Guy Debelle has been named as the RBA’s new deputy governor,

stepping into a vacancy created by the elevation of Philip Lowe to the central bank’s top job later this month.


The actual trading range of 0.7505/0.7559 was close to our

expected sideway trading range of 0.7495/0.7550. While the

outlook is still mixed, the strong daily closing has improved

the undertone somewhat and from here, we could see a

move higher to test the 0.7580 resistance. At this stage, a

sustained move above this level is not expected. Support is

at 0.7520 followed closely by the recent low near 0.7490.

Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.7485.

AUD rebounded quickly after coming close to the immediate

target of 0.7485 (low of 0.7490 on Wednesday). Downward

momentum is showing signs of slowing and the prospect for

a sustained move below 0.7485 has dimmed. Those who

are short should look to book partial profit on any move to

0.7485/90. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 0.7600 for now.


NZD/USD: 0.7285

NZD/USD looks relatively comfortable around the 0.7280 region. To recap, we learned that New Zealand’s merchandise terms

of trade fell 2.1% q/q in Q2, which largely reflected the lagged impact of earlier extreme weakness in dairy product prices.

Meanwhile merchandise export volumes rose 9.6% y/y in Q2.


NZD dipped initially to a low of 0.7228 before reversing

rapidly and sharply to touch a high of 0.7295. The rally

appears to have scope to extend higher but at this stage, a

sustained break above the major 0.7310 resistance seems

unlikely. Support is at 0.7260 followed by the 0.7225/30 low.

Bearish: Increasing risk of a short-term low.

The rebound from the 0.7204 low on Tuesday has been

more resilient than expected. While the 0.7310 stop-loss is

still intact, it is getting increasingly likely that NZD is trying to

form a short-term base. Unless there is a drop below 0.7200

within these 1 to 2 days, a break above 0.7310 appears to

be a likely scenario.


USD/JPY: 103.20

USD/JPY managed to hit the 104-mark before falling back on the US data. Earlier in the session, Japan’s final manufacturing

PMI reading for August was 49.5, up from 49.3 last month. According to reports, the BoJ may become more flexible with its

JGB buying. The central bank may adopt a range between JPY70tn and JPY90tn, and in addition, may decide to purchase

fiscal investment and loan program agency bonds or other instruments currently outside its buying scope.


Exports Woes Continue For The 10th Straight Month In July http://bit.ly/2brsGQl


USD surged to a high of 104.00 but the up-move was short-

lived. The subsequent plunge from the high has clearly

dented the recent strong upward momentum and from here,

the immediate bias is for a probe to the downside. Only a

move back above 103.70 would indicate that the immediate

downward pressure has eased. Otherwise, a move to test

the 102.70 support would not be surprising even though a

sustained move below this level is not expected.

Bullish: 104.00 target met but diminished odds for further

USD strength.

The revised 104.00 was met yesterday but the subsequent

sharp drop has clearly dented the recent upward momentum.

While the outlook is still deemed as bullish, USD has to

punch through 104.00 soon as a prolonged consolidation

below this level would lead to a rapid loss in momentum.

Support is at 102.70 but only a break below the stop-loss at

102.00 (unchanged) would indicate that the bullish phase

has ended.

y=

http://bit.ly/2brsGQl

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB

Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date

of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial

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reproduced or otherwise.

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Last updated on 18 Jul 16 * Last updated on 03 Aug 16 ** Last updated on 11 Aug 16 Quarterly Global Outlook: 3Q 2016 http://bit.ly/2aOTsDh

*

UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook

FX Outlook 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Rates Outlook 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17

EUR/USD 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 EU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

GBP/USD 1.28 1.24 1.20 1.16 UK 0.25% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

AUD/USD 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.80 AU* 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

NZD/USD 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.75 NZ** 1.75% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50%

USD/JPY 105 106 109 110 JP -0.20% -0.20% -0.30% -0.30%

USD/SGD 1.37 1.38 1.41 1.42 SG 0.90% 1.10% 1.35% 1.50%

USD/MYR 4.15 4.15 4.10 4.08 MY 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

USD/THB 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.0 TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00%

USD/CNY 6.70 6.60 6.59 6.62 CN 4.10% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85%

USD/IDR 13,200 13,200 13,300 13,400 ID 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

USD/PHP 47.0 46.0 45.0 43.0 PH 3.00% 3.00% 3.25% 3.25%

USD/INR 70.0 71.1 72.2 71.1 IN 6.50% 6.50% 6.75% 6.75%

USD/TWD 32.7 32.4 32.1 31.8 TW 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38%

USD/HKD 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%

USD/KRW 1190 1200 1220 1230 KR 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%

US 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%

Central Bank Meetings 2016

Central Bank Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Federal Reserve (FOMC) 27 - 16 27 - 27 - 21 - 02 14

European Central Bank (ECB) 21 - 10 21 - 02 21 - 08 20 - 08

Bank of England (BOE) 14 04 17 14 12 16 14 04 15 13 03 15

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 02 01 05 03 07 05 02 06 04 01 06

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) 28 - 10 28 - 09 - 11 22 - 10 -

Bank of Japan (BOJ) 29 - 15 28 - 16 29 - 21 - 1

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) 21 - 09 - 19 - 13 - 07 - 23 -

Bank of Thailand (BOT) - 03 23 - 11 22 - 03 14 - 09 21

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - - - 14 - - - - TBA - - -

http://bit.ly/2aOTsDh

GBP/SGD: 1 - UOB GroupFX Insights Friday, 02 September 2016 5 | P a g e EUR/SGD: 1.5225 24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The 1.5171/1.5230 range was very close to our expected sideway

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