GB POTATOES: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2011-12 2011-12 Information Update November 2011
GB POTATOES: MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2011-12
2011-12Inform
ation
Update
November 2011
How do we know ouroutputs are fit for industry?
Market Intelligence data and deliveries areregularly peer-reviewed via the Potato CouncilMarket Information Committee. The committeeis made up of potato growers, packers, processors,industry bodies, government and seed suppliersto ensure the information provided continues tomeet current industry needs. The committeealso recommends new areas of focus as thepotato industry develops. You can see a
list of the current members inAppendix 1 (page 20).
The GB Potato Industry
Consolidation of the GB Industry
The European Market
Modelling Work
World Production
Potato Council Market Information Committee
Potato Council Data Collection
Potato Council Market Intelligence Information Services
Levy-Payer Data Centre
Data Sources
NEPG Representative Organisations
Glossary
Contacts
1
11
15
16
19
20
21
22
24
25
26
27
28
Contents
Publication Overview
Welcome to GB Potatoes: MarketIntelligence 2011-12. The aim of thisannual potato bible is to provide theindustry with the latest annual trends,including world potato production, thestructure of the GB market includingareas, production, prices, supplies anddisposals, consumption, retail andfoodservice data to enable you tomake informed business decisions.
The publication provides final figuresfor the 2010/11 crop year and latestprovisional figures for the 2011/12season (as of October 2011). This reportalso highlights where you can find thelatest information throughout theseason.
The Agriculture and HorticultureDevelopment Board (AHDB) Market
Intelligence Division
The role of the AHDB Market Intelligence divisionis to communicate accurate, timely, independentand impartial information on markets and prices.The aim is to ensure that our levy-payers andstakeholders are properly informed of changesin markets which will equip them to make
the best business decisions.
As an integral part of theMarket Intelligence division, the
Potato market specialist team providesinformation to help growers and
purchasers understand the businessenvironment for potatoes.The informationis provided to support sustained demandfor potatoes grown by AHDB levy-payers.The potato industry is influenced by other
on-farm enterprises and therefore theteam works closely with allAHDB market specialists.
1
The GB Potato Industry
GB Potatoes Market Intelligence 2011-12
The GB potato industry delivers sales value of £947m at farm gate and £3.8bn atconsumer level. Potato production is a capital intensive and high risk operationwith just under 2,500 highly specialised growers, incorporating potatoes as partof their farming operation, making up today’s GB potato industry.
The majority of these professional producers arepart of dedicated supply chains, working in closecollaboration with specialist buyers. The strongpartnerships with purchasers result in nearly threequarters of GB crop grown on a pre-season contract orfor a committed buyer.
GB production is relatively stable with approximately55% entering the fresh supply chain and the remaindersupplied to the processing industry. A decade agothere were more than double the number ofproducers. As a result, the average area per grower, atjust under 50 hectares, has also doubled and twice thenumber of growers produce on an area of a 100 ha ormore. So, production today is from fewer hectares andfar fewer growers (see page 11).
The total plantings in 2010 were 126,900 ha, withmaincrop varieties accounting for almost two-thirds ofthis area. Maincrop yields have more than doubled,from just under 23t/ha in1960 to over 46t/ha in 2010,and this reflects the considerable amount of industryresearch, investment and innovation over the years.
The basic laws of supply and demand are applicableto the GB potato market, with prices dropping in highproduction years. Historically, over 6.5m tonnestriggering a low price year. However, the overall wareprice index in 2010 at £161.67/t was the highest in overa decade.
The start of the 2011/12 season (as of October 2011)Weather conditions in the spring and summer monthsare always crucial to crop development and this yearhas been no exception.
The start of the 2011/12 crop year, in contrast to lastseason, was dry and unusually warm. Therefore,planting tracked ahead of last year and the cropgot off to a good start (see page 12).
Throughout the lifting season ample supplies wereavailable with many varieties ready ahead of last year.An effect of this early boost was that at the start ofOctober, over 60% of the crop was estimated to beharvested, compared with just under 46% at the sametime last year.
The spring was one of the warmest across theUK since 1910, according to Met Office figures. It wasparticularly dry over the eastern half of England, whereless than a third of the normal amount of rain fell. Inthe England and Wales rainfall series from 1766, it wasthe third driest spring on record and the driest since1893. With the dry and warm conditions many cropsproduced good yields and in general a bolder cropthan last season.
However, the weather changed later in the year, withUK summer rainfall 18% above normal. EasternScotland and North-East England were particularly wetin both July and August, with over twice the normalrainfall recorded each month. Eastern Scotland had itssecond wettest summer since 1910. But in contrast,much of the Midlands was relatively dry throughout.
A period of unseasonably warm, settled weather inlate September and early October brought sunshineand temperatures of up to 29.9 °C to many parts of theUK. In England, lifting continued to make goodprogress, with some regions experiencing unseasonablydry weather and irrigating ahead of the harvester tominimise bruising.
The official 2011 production figure will be announcedin November once the harvest has been complete andactual yields have been assessed. Traditionally, thePotato Council publishes production estimates inNovember each year, which allows an indication of theseasonal average price.
European data is available on page 15.
2
The GB Potato Industry
SEED GROWER
WARE GROWER
WholesaleMarket
ProcessingFish &
Chip Shop
QSR
Pre-Packers
SeedMerchant
CONSUMER
WarePotato
Merchant
Non-Consumption& Animal Feed
Seed Breeders
Breeder Agents
Raw Import
Product Import
Raw Export
Product Export
Input Suppliers
Input Suppliers
Imports
Exports
R & D
Specialist Hauliers
Specialist Hauliers Raw
*Pubs, Restaurants, Leisure, Government, Quick Service Restaurants (QSR),Contract Catering/Public Sector (Schools, Hospitals, Workplace, etc)
Foodservice*
SUPP
LYCH
AIN
CUST
OM
ERS
Retailer IndependentGrocer
SeedMultiplication
Fresh SalesFarmers’ Markets
Farm GateFarm Shop
The diagram below illustrates the network and interactions of the producers, suppliers, service providers, buyersand consumers that make up the complex GB potato supply chain.
The GB potatoindustry deliverssales value of
£947m at farm gateand £3.8bn atconsumer level
Diagram of the Potato Supply Chain
GB Potatoes
3
Fresh exports270
Home-grown supply5,849
GB consumptionTotal including imports
5,244
Net human consumption from GB crop4,114
GB crop tofresh supply
chain2,285
Stocks to next year309
Seed supply chain361
Seed imports 25
Seed exports 106
2,1383,106
Total throughprocessed
supply chain3,290
GB cropfor
processing1,829
Stock feed &other losses
1,433
Stocks from last year368
Product imports1,338
Rawimports124
Product exports184
Fresh imports124
Potato Supply Flowchart (Raw Material)
Figures for June 2010 to May 2011 crop year, in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalent
Strong partnershipswith purchasers result in
3/4 of the GB crop grown onpre-season contract or for
a committed buyer
Market Intelligence 2011-12
4
Main Production Areas
Planting Data Sep 2011
• Eastern England andYorkshire have 53%of plantings
• Scotland has 23%,of which c. 40% is seed
• West Midlands has12% of plantings
• Remainder of Englandand Wales have 12%
• South West andPembrokeshire mainlyearly crop
• Plantings correspondto arable soils map
Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre
Ware Potatoes
Seed Potatoes
Grower Panel Crop(see page 25)
1,2615,660
13,73617,24616,41533,245
3,3946,117
27,1091,730
125,911
North EastNorth WestYorks & HumberEast MidlandsWest MidlandsEastern CountiesSouth EastSouth WestScotlandWalesTotal
1,3025,416
14,14717,76416,62133,441
3,2296,129
27,5151,683
127,249
1,2826,041
14,26918,26117,19833,418
3,2596,726
28,5881,715
130,758
1,3725,835
13,65217,78516,13934,347
3,0907,131
29,2131,669
130,234
1,2185,764
14,07117,94115,54234,329
3,2817,190
29,2731,622
130,231
1,2684,989
15,07718,74614,66834,986
2,7024,743
28,2331,476
126,887
2005GB Region 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1,1794,773
14,29818,53815,29633,171
2,9645,369
29,3551,384
126,328
2011
Plantings by Region 2005-2011
For the latestdata go to:
www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre
All values shown are estimated total plantings in hectares
GB Potatoes
5
Maris Piper remains the dominant variety,accounting for 16% of planted area. It is amultipurpose variety used mainly forchipping but also popular for packing andthe bag trade.
Estima remains the second-ranked variety,though it has shown a 51% decline inplanted area since 2006.
Markies used mainly for chipping is upone place this year to 3rd and has gainedstrongly in popularity since 2005, when itwas ranked 23rd.
Lady Rosetta, a specialist crisping variety,is down a place this year and is ranked 4th.
Maris Peer remains in 5th place, havingmaintained similar areas since 2005 as apre-pack variety mainly marketed as asalad or new potato.
For more information on varietiesgo to: http://varieties.potato.org.uk
123456789
101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
20,7607,7407,1056,5585,4244,7874,5754,4173,6713,3893,0853,0572,9822,9512,0621,8461,7861,7801,7001,6481,4941,4011,3791,2061,0701,0461,0201,007
876866
102,69323,635
126,328
16%6%6%5%4%4%4%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
81%19%
100%
Rank
Maris PiperEstimaMarkiesLady Rosetta (crisping)Maris PeerMelodyMarfonaHermes (crisping)HarmonySaturna (crisping)DesireeKing EdwardSaxonPentland Dell (processing)CabaretRoosterCharlotteFontaneRusset Burbank (processing)OspreyPremiereInnovator (processing)CultraWiljaShepody (processing)AgriaAccordMaris BardNadineVales SovereignSub-totalOther varietiesTotal
Top Varieties2011 GB
Planted Area(hectares)
%of Total
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NO
VD
EC JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Availability
The 2011 data shown in the table is provisionaland will be updated in January 2012.
Top Varieties by Area in 2011 (hectares) and Typical Availability
First earlies
Second earlies
Maincrop red
Maincropparti coloured
Maincrop white
Melody is 6th, up three places from lastyear and is used mainly in the packingtrade but is also used in the bag sector.
Marfona, used in the packing and thebag sector is 7th, rising one place fromlast season.
Hermes, used mainly for crisping, isdown one place to 8th this year.
Harmony, mainly used in the packing sector,has moved down three places to 9th this year,although it was 19th back in 2005.
6,90314,77734,12532,821
3,3443,616
95,585
Fresh bagsFresh chippingPre-packProcessingOther WareSeedTotal
807413
13,1221,318
87512,82029,355
9993
9137647
1561,384
7,81015,28348,16034,215
4,26516,595
126,328
EnglandMarket Sector Scotland Wales Total 2011
Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centreThe 2011 data shown in the table is provisional and will be updated in January 2012.
Planted Area by Market Sector and Region 2011 in Hectares
The top ninevarieties representjust over half thetotal planted area
in 2011
Market Intelligence 2011-12
6
RegisteredGrowers
Total Area*'000 ha
Year
1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
76,82574,93370,05666,38060,94057,72554,70050,31048,23945,13043,34642,75640,75638,75336,87235,47834,93835,28633,38732,14930,22528,76027,49826,49925,48024,94822,56521,43920,15519,26618,33117,23416,51216,30814,90014,02213,395
9,7727,5307,3316,1435,6064,8043,3813,1773,0732,9222,8382,7272,6122,465
RegisteredArea
'000 ha
MaincropNet Yield
tonnes/ha
280.2239.6253.0264.4270.0262.7237.1248.1246.2217.2238.6225.7208.5196.0189.4180.2194.9199.4183.9171.4174.0162.4161.3165.2167.4162.7150.1151.1155.1151.8154.1154.4155.0148.2141.0146.3147.1137.1134.6145.5133.9131.6128.4115.0119.0116.7119.5124.3124.0123.6120.3119.6
287.2245.6259.4271.0276.7269.2243.0254.3252.4222.6244.6231.4213.7200.9194.1184.7199.8204.3188.5175.7178.3166.5165.3169.3171.6166.8153.8154.9158.9155.6157.9158.2158.9151.9144.5150.0150.8146.4142.8155.6146.2146.4138.7124.8130.9125.9127.2130.8130.2130.2126.9
Area perGrower ha
3.653.203.613.984.434.554.334.935.104.815.515.285.115.065.145.085.585.655.515.335.765.655.866.236.576.526.657.057.697.888.408.969.399.089.46
10.4410.9814.0317.8819.8521.8023.4726.7334.0137.4537.9940.8943.7945.4747.3248.80
22.823.323.622.223.526.225.126.225.426.128.930.329.132.433.323.222.229.936.734.637.234.839.632.640.639.439.641.041.538.439.338.147.144.843.340.846.046.843.244.041.043.848.246.645.946.143.441.445.747.546.1
TotalProduction
'000s tonnes
6,5585,7286,1096,0246,5147,0656,1046,6746,4025,8207,0767,0216,2146,5176,4694,2874,4296,1086,9176,0756,6315,7946,5395,5176,9656,5676,0876,3586,5905,9736,1986,0327,4816,8086,2636,1206,9416,8536,1716,8435,9936,4106,6835,8126,0095,8055,5285,4095,9466,1925,849
Av. OverallPrice Index
Ware £/t
14.2714.8219.0818.7625.40
103.95133.46
43.1943.9958.8244.4383.5153.40
125.7549.2657.0286.5271.8562.5599.0978.2085.7056.6979.52
156.86137.12
66.4676.29
147.1667.35
122.00111.06
69.30128.32
94.57107.69134.17142.71124.92
99.23161.67
RetailPriceIndex
1920222428344046505767758185899598
102107115126134139141145150153158163166171174176181187192199207217213224
Avg£/tonne2010 £s
167.24158.76190.85171.84200.57660.90728.34203.54191.43225.71144.49242.69142.90321.71120.02130.94192.15153.14127.08186.82134.69143.22
91.20126.39242.93205.13
97.34108.55201.83
91.14159.79142.70
88.14158.62113.45125.57151.48154.28129.13104.21161.67
£
*Total plantings were not estimated prior to 1996. An allowance of 2.5% is added to registered plantings**2011 data are provisional estimates as at 25 August 2011
2,339** 126.3** 51.13** 46.5** 5,870*
GB Areas, Production and Prices 1960-2011
GB Potatoes
7
SuppliesHome Crop
from previous seasonfrom current crop
ImportsFreshProcessed*Seed
Total
DisposalsHuman ConsumptionExports
FreshProcessed*Seed
Seed for next cropInterventionClosing stocksStockfeed & wastageTotal
1989
3145,981
460535
447,334
5,799
815431
4930
286591
7,334
1990
2866,203
331536
447,400
5,710
664852
49532
293703
7,400
1991
2936,049
363561
467,313
5,561
1027233
5030
409633
7,313
1992
4097,500
368599
248,899
6,008
877538
473869421928
8,899
1993
4216,820
364753
358,393
6,404
1187227
44344
359926
8,393
1994
3596,270
402686
557,771
6,032
2227942
451
295650
7,771
1995
2956,124
475641
357,570
5,801
1087052
480
360698
7,570
1996
3606,956
336708
228,383
6,134
1478859
421
2811,2538,383
1997
2816,869
333920
178,420
6,140
160122
67412
3271,1928,420
1998
3276,180
3721,028
217,929
5,847
160111
70425
347969
7,929
1999
3476,854
2731,121
198,613
6,450
150115
71409
2241,1948,613
2000
2245,998
6681,084
378,011
6,391
91123
69398
192748
8,011
2001
1926,417
4181,274
378,338
6,255
122149
71393
372977
8,338
2002
3726,694
3571,418
288,870
6,691
223165
81348
3021,0618,870
2003
3025,819
3351,368
407,864
5,615
81206
77393
3601,1317,864
2004
3606,009
3731,335
218,098
6,076
101216
80372
360893
8,098
2005
4355,805
3001,244
307,814
5,530
133174
85372
4151,1057,814
2006
4155,528
3161,295
137,566
5,557
188355
82321
354710
7,566
2007
3545,409
4201,141
147,338
5,492
131147
91324
206947
7,338
2008
2065,946
3251,309
177,804
5,514
139166
95324
3721,1937,804
2009
3726,192
2241,274
188,081
5,399
175151
89311
3681,5888,081
2010
3685,849
2471,338
257,827
5,244
270184106280
3091,4337,827
*Raw equivalent
Annual Balance Sheet of Potato Supplies and Disposals 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year
Retail Potato andPotato Products
FreshCanned/OtherDehydratedCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal Retail
Food Service andPotato Ingredients
RawCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal Food Service
Total Usage
GB Population ('000s)Per Capita Consumptionkg/head/year
FreshProcessedTotal
Retail & Food Service‘000s tonnes
RetailFood ServiceTotal
1989
2,7791825
379420
3,621
1,058312
202605
2,1785,799
55,687
68.935.2
104.1
3,6212,1785,799
1990
2,8431525
389395
3,667
956300
207580
2,0435,710
55,831
68.034.2
102.3
3,6672,0435,710
1991
2,6932126
427463
3,630
855297
150629
1,9315,561
55,831
63.536.199.6
3,6301,9315,561
1992
2,5772237
506509
3,650
1,099314
128818
2,3586,008
55,955
65.741.7
107.4
3,6502,3586,008
1993
2,5002422
508564
3,618
1,554263
177793
2,7866,404
56,078
72.341.9
114.2
3,6182,7866,404
1994
2,3882121
434457
3,321
1,257391
200862
2,7116,032
56,218
64.842.5
107.3
3,3212,7116,032
1995
2,3742431
578560
3,567
1,014340
144736
2,2345,801
56,376
60.142.8
102.9
3,5672,2345,801
1996
2,3862319
645672
3,745
1,221331
107730
2,3896,134
56,503
63.844.7
108.6
3,7452,3896,134
1997
2,1492237
587696
3,491
1,316224
137972
2,6496,140
56,643
61.247.2
108.4
3,4912,6496,140
1998
2,1771944
518725
3,482
845236
2211,0622,3645,847
56,797
53.249.7
102.9
3,4822,3645,847
1999
2,0033043
476806
3,357
1,457367
2181,0503,0936,450
57,005
60.752.5
113.2
3,3573,0936,450
2000
1,8863345
481838
3,284
1,647203
1941,0623,1066,391
57,203
61.849.9
111.7
3,2843,1066,391
2001
1,8573354
508894
3,346
1,292214
2551,1482,9096,255
57,424
54.854.1
108.9
3,3462,9096,255
2002
1,8073460
538899
3,338
1,550302
3441,0373,2336,571
57,625
58.355.8
114.0
3,3383,2336,571
2003
1,7383477
559928
3,336
739265
2331,0422,2795,615
57,851
42.854.297.1
3,3362,2795,615
2004
1,7983294
537938
3,400
1,150216
3021,0082,6766,076
58,132
50.753.8
104.5
3,4002,6766,076
2005
1,8163099
547903
3,396
732216
209978
2,1345,530
58,511
43.551.094.5
3,3962,1345,530
2006
1,77927
106536868
3,317
1,016118
211895
2,2405,557
58,843
47.546.994.4
3,3172,2405,557
2007
1,8712543
569911
3,419
802220
148903
2,0735,492
59,227
45.147.692.7
3,4192,0735,492
2008
1,92722
120584944
3,597
592133
1551,0371,9175,514
59,623
42.350.292.5
3,5971,9175,514
2009
1,92520
109606953
3,613
559232
107888
1,7865,399
60,003
41.448.690.0
3,6131,7865,399
2010
1,89118
101624960
3,594
247158
1401,1041,6505,244
60,463
35.451.486.7
3,5941,6505,244
Raw to processed weight conversion ratios used are: Canned 1:1, Crisped 4:1, Dehydrated 6.2:1, Frozen 1.9:1NB. The 2010 !gures are provisional and will be updated in late November 2011
Consumption and Processing of Potatoes in GB 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes raw equivalent - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year
Market Intelligence 2011-12
8
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1Ju
l
1Au
g
1Se
p
1O
ct
1N
ov
1D
ec
1Ja
n
1Fe
b
1M
ar
1A
pr
1M
ay
1Ju
n
2000
2001
2002
20032010
2004
200520082009
2006
2007
Pric
e£/
tonn
e
Free Market Weekly Average Price Index 2000-2010
• During the season, the WeeklyAverage Price (WAPS) showstypical patterns, depending onthe level of supply
• From July to the end of October,prices usually decline as supplyincreases. Sometimes summerprices are steady to earlySeptember if harvestingprogresses slowly
• Once lifting is complete, pricesfrom storage will graduallyincrease over the season unlessthere is over-supply, in which casethey remain relatively flat
• Post-Christmas, there is a periodof weaker demand, followed by arally in prices from March onwards
• As the new crop becomesavailable from May, old cropprices may drop sharply but, if thenew crop is late, they may remainstrong into June
Raw tonnage used forCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal raw tonnage
SourceHome-GrownImported as raw potatoes
Total GB production% used for processing
1989
184601709
1,494
1,264230
5,98121%
1990
152606706
1,464
1,298166
6,20321%
1991
163594816
1,573
1,391182
6,04923%
1992
172646
1,0111,829
1,645184
7,50022%
1993
153697964
1,814
1,632182
6,82024%
1994
172646
1,0111,829
1,628201
6,27026%
1995
181685
1,0331,899
1,661238
6,12427%
1996
188701
1,1021,991
1,823168
6,95626%
1997
97719
1,1391,955
1,788167
6,86926%
1998
85732
1,1771,994
1,808186
6,18029%
1999
157684
1,2352,076
1,939136
6,85428%
2000
148666
1,1631,977
1,643334
5,99827%
2001
140664
1,2672,070
1,861209
6,41729%
2002
140671
1,1501,961
1,782179
6,69427%
2003
168661
1,1461,975
1,808168
5,81931%
2004
138752
1,1202,009
1,823187
6,00930%
2005
117697
1,0981,912
1,762150
5,80530%
2006
15702
1,1051,821
1,663158
5,52830%
2007
18691
1,1161,825
1,615210
5,40930%
2008
13737
1,1031,852
1,690162
5,94628%
2009
86720986
1,792
1,680112
6,19227%
2010
39757
1,1561,952
1,828124
5,84931%
Imports ofProcessed ProductsCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal
Exports ofProcessed ProductsCanned/Dehydrated/OtherCrispedFrozen or ChilledTotal
1989
1949
356559
152
3754
1990
2249
328561
252
3259
1991
2319
340580
393
3274
1992
2319
385625
203
3255
1993
18510
461656
203
3053
1994
3079
388704
333
4279
1995
26361
336660
373
3676
1996
22780
596903
316
5289
1997
22640
654920
321478
124
1998
25337
7391,028
319
78117
1999
33341
7471,121
381072
121
2000
18844
8531,084
471561
123
2001
226138909
1,274
571776
149
2002
309233876
1,418
532389
165
2003
297156914
1,368
892592
206
2004
274116944
1,335
6930
117216
2005
28192
8711,244
523389
174
2006
33884
8721,295
10239
214355
2007
29774
7701,141
264873
147
2008
29361
9561,309
305878
166
2009
30851
9151,274
335960
151
2010
31360
9641,338
765256
184
Imports and Exports of Processed Potatoes 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year
Tonnage of Potatoes used for Processing in GB 1989-2010Quantities in thousands metric tonnes - Seasons from 1 June of year shown to 31 May of following year
GB Potatoes
9
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Regi
ster
edp
lant
edar
ea('0
00s
ha)
Num
ber
ofre
gist
ered
grow
ers
50
0
100
150
200
250
300
10,000
0
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Planted Area
Number of Growers
Trends in Planted Area and Number of Growers 1960-2011
• Area has declined by 56%from 1960
• The number of growers hasfallen much more steeplyand is now only 3% of the1960 number
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prod
ucti
on('0
00s
tonn
es)
Har
vest
edyi
eld
(ton
nes/
ha)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Production Yield per ha Yield Trend
Yield per ha and Total Production 1960-2010
• In spite of the 56% drop in area,production has remained at around6 million tonnes as yields have risen,driven mainly by improved cropprotection, fertiliser regimes,varieties and irrigation
• The last decade has seen alevelling off in this trend of increasingyield. Annual fluctuations in yieldand production are mainly due toweather
Market Intelligence 2011-12
©Graem
eStroud
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
%To
nnag
etr
aded
2000
2005
2010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% of purchasers (largest to smallest)
Percentage of Tonnage Traded by Percentageof Large to Small Purchasers 2000-2010
Are
ap
ergr
ower
(ha)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Area per Grower
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Planted Area per Grower 1970-20101997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Volu
me
trad
ed('0
00s
tonn
es)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000Other Peelers Processors Packers
Crop Year
Volume Traded by Purchaser Type 1997-2010
• Average area planted per growerhas risen from 5.5 to 48.8 hasince 1970
• The industry is now more highlycapitalised and specialised thanformerly, a trend which iscontinuing
• The structure of purchases hasnot changed since 1999
• 80% of the tonnage traded isby 20% of the largest purchasingbusinesses
• 95% of the tonnage traded isby 60% of the largest purchasingbusinesses. The remaining 5% ispurchased by 40% of the smallestpurchasing businesses
GB Potatoes
11
2010200520001996
Num
ber
ofG
row
ers
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
3,000
2,500
6,169
4,550
2,465
3,073
2010200520001996
Are
a%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
In summary
The average area per grower has increased from11 hectares in 1996 to 49 hectares in 2010. Today,12% of the total grower base plant 100 hectaresof potatoes or more and this now equates to50% of the total planted area.
How the area haschanged within thesize bands
Since 1996, the followingchanges have taken place:
• In 1996, the area grownby producers from 3-9hectares was 10%, this hasreduced to 3% in 2010
• Around 35% of the areawas from producers under30 hectares. In 2010 thiswas 16%
• In 2010, over 50% of thepotato area was producedby growers over 100hectares, a rise of 21% in14 years
How growernumbers have changed
Since 1996, the followingchanges have taken place:
• The total number ofregistered potatoproducers (>3ha) hasdeclined by 60% from6,169 to 2,465
• In 1996, 77% of the growerbase planted under 30hectares, this has fallenby 19% and accountedfor 58% in 2010
• In 1996, only 3% of thegrower base planted100 hectares or moreof potatoes. In 2010, thishad risen to 12%, with1.5% of the growers atover 300 hectares
3 - 9 ha
10 - 29 ha
30 - 99 ha
100 - 299 ha
300+ ha
Total
Number of Potato Growers by Size Band in Hectares
The Percentage of the Area Grown by Size Band (Hectares)
Consolidation of the GB Industry
Approximately1/3 of GB productionis on rented land
Market Intelligence 2011-12
Although annual GB production is relatively stable, it is producedfrom fewer hectares and far fewer growers. The charts below clearlyshow how this has changed in the 14 years from 1996 to the lastcomplete season in 2010.
12
Early Crop Development in Great Britain 2008 - 2011
GB Potatoes
1316233675
149313474445536884
1,1261,3781,409
6,876
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
1920326592
181256343513767916
1,3021,3141,231
7,052
123490
134172288234249621
1,1481,7461,8351,895
8,457
15438596
149157242328565825
1,0611,3321,6421,783
8,324
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Hectares Cleared
12,03310,967
8,5436,9696,4808,0337,5366,6166,2935,8655,6905,4095,4045,492
5,846
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
9,1079,3877,6237,3756,8075,6035,7555,4545,3584,5104,5234,7544,7384,576
4,888
13,59812,73711,31011,79212,02210,994
7,8476,1255,4255,1815,3506,5756,790
6,547
15,23711,064
8,6847,5926,1725,6855,2615,7346,1175,7995,4415,2925,4055,254
5,581
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Gross Return £/ha
7.17.79.9
13.113.414.716.817.918.320.725.928.231.835.4
27.0
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
7.712.615.416.919.420.221.221.627.126.932.135.639.438.8
32.6
7.610.113.014.214.515.216.819.822.926.729.434.436.0
29.2
9.612.214.216.517.518.919.322.328.131.735.237.240.741.3
34.9
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Yield (tonnes/ha)
151174193254487
1,1962,3563,1372,8023,1415,0316,0897,4487,739
40,196
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
173186248478629
1,0131,4751,8732,7473,4594,1456,1886,2275,635
34,474
161433
1,0131,5852,0633,1641,8381,5283,3665,9469,343
12,06512,867
55,373
235479739726919893
1,2741,8803,4564,7855,7737,0518,8769,369
46,456
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Value £'000s
Source: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre
90122223476
1,0092,1835,2658,4648,133
11,09422,89731,75243,85549,950
185,512
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
147249500
1,0961,7943,6615,4397,415
13,88520,64029,41546,29051,72047,770
230,021
90342
1,1681,9072,4934,3663,9454,930
14,18530,61551,40563,07568,230
246,751
148529
1,2111,5802,6032,9724,6737,313
15,89026,14037,40549,50566,84073,590
290,399
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Tonnes Moved
1,686.031,422.95
865.84533.60482.41548.05447.53370.63344.47283.14219.71191.77169.83154.93
216.68
Up to 30 Apr01 May - 07 May08 May - 14 May15 May - 21 May22 May - 28 May29 May - 04 Jun05 Jun - 11 Jun12 Jun - 18 Jun19 Jun - 25 Jun26 Jun - 02 Jul03 Jul - 09 Jul10 Jul - 16 Jul17 Jul - 23 Jul24 Jul - 30 Jul
Total to 30 Jul
1,175.85747.59495.34436.09350.46276.74271.13252.63197.81167.59140.93133.67120.40117.95
149.88
1,788.891,266.67
866.93831.55827.68724.73465.80309.92237.32194.22181.76191.28188.58
224.41
1,586.49905.02610.10459.43353.11300.40272.67257.02217.51183.07154.35142.44132.80127.32
159.97
2008Week in early seasonDates 2011 2009 2010 2011
Average Price (£/tonne)
13
Canned Potatoes£11m (0.3%)
Other FrozenPotato products
£202m
Dry Pasta £234m
Fresh Pasta £130mChilled Rice £24m
FreshPotatoes£1.06bn
Frozen Chips £366m
Chilled Prepared Potatoes£174m
Instant Mashed Potato£13m (0.3%)
Crisps£855m
Savoury Snacks£779mAmbient Rice + Savoury Noodles
£424m
25%
20%
18%10%
9%
5%
5%
3%
4%
Size and Share of the Carbohydrates Market 2008/2011 (Retail Data)
Breakdown of Total In-home Potato Meal Occasions
Expenditure (£s) 52 w/e 4 Sep 2011
All data on this page - Source: KantarWorldpanel
12%
33%
10%
4%
12%
16%
7%
2
4%
12%
33%
10%
3%
12%
17%
6%
2
5%
% Potato Consumption in 2008 % Potato Consumption in 2011
In-home Consumption 12m/e Aug 2011
Value 2011
FreshPotatoes£1.03bn
Canned Potatoes£13m (0.4%)
Other FrozenPotato products
£192m
Dry Pasta £180m
Fresh Pasta £107m
Chilled Rice £22m (1%)
Frozen Chips £311m
Chilled Prepared Potatoes£22m (1%)
Instant Mashed Potato£15m (0.4%)
Crisps£659m
Savoury Snacks£614mAmbient Rice + Savoury Noodles
£321m
30%
19%
18%9%
9%
6%
5%
3%
Expenditure (£s) 52 w/e 7 Sep 2008
Value 2008
Volume (‘000 tonnes) 52 w/e 4 Sep 2011
Volume 2011
FreshPotatoes
1,640
Frozen Chips311
Ambient Rice + Savoury Noodles148
Crisps 124
Savoury Snacks 108
Fresh Pasta 30 (1%)
Canned Potatoes 20 (0.7%)
Dry Pasta 139
Chilled PreparedPotatoes 7 (0.3%)
Instant Mashed Potato5 (0.2%)
Chilled Rice6 (0.2%)
Other Frozen Potato products141
61%
12%6%5%
5%
5%
4%
Volume (‘000 tonnes) 52 w/e 7 Sep 2008
Baked/Jacket Potatoes
Boiled/Mashed Potatoes
Homemade Roast Potatoes
Frozen Roast Potatoes
Frozen Chips
Homemade Chips
Other Frozen
Other Fresh
Crisps
Market Intelligence 2011-12
FreshPotatoes
1,670
Frozen Chips337
Ambient Rice + Savoury Noodles167
Crisps 136
Savoury Snacks 115
Fresh Pasta 34 (1%)
Canned Potatoes 23 (0.8%)
Dry Pasta 160
Chilled PreparedPotatoes 51 (1.8%)
Instant Mashed Potato5 (0.2%)
Chilled Rice6 (0.2%)
Other Frozen Potato products139
59%
12%6%5%
6%
5%
4%
Volume 2008
14
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cons
ump
tion
-raw
equi
vale
nt(k
g/h
ead
/yea
r)
%Fr
esh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
June of year shown to May of following year
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Total Per Capita Consumption in GB 1988-2010(Including Imports)
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cons
ump
tion
-raw
equi
vale
nt('0
00to
nnes
)
%So
urce
dfr
omH
ome
Cro
p
June of year shown to May of following year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
65
70
75
80
85
90
Retail and Other Consumption in GB 1988-2010
Total
3 Year Average
Fresh
Processed
Fresh %
Total Consumption
3 Year Moving Average
Foodservice & Ingredients
Retail
GB Supply %
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cons
ump
tion
(%ra
weq
uiva
lent
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
June of year shown to May of following year
Consumption by Product Groups 1988-2010
Retail - Fresh
Catering - Raw
Frozen - Chilled
Crisped
Canned - Dehydrated
GB Potatoes
15
The European Market
The impacts on the EU and the GB potato market of increased tradeliberalisation have been significant.
An economic and political union of 27 independentmember states, the European Union (EU), hasdeveloped a single market with an overarching policyto promote the free movement of people, goods,services and capital.
The impacts on the EU and the GB potato market ofincreased trade liberalisation have been significant.While France remains the largest EU exporter of freshpotato products, the Netherlands continues toconsolidate its position as the largest exporter ofprocessed potato products and GB is an importantexport market for both. Currently GB is the fourthlargest customer of French fresh potato exports andthe second largest importer of Dutch processedpotato products. In production and capacity terms,Belgium is the fastest growing European potatoproducing country, having invested significantly inbuilding its capacity during the last five years. Thishas resulted in a more aggressive marketing of itsprocessed potato products throughout Europe,particularly to GB but also beyond to other worldwidemarkets.
The GB market is increasingly influenced by EU potatoproducer activities and supply chain structure.Currency fluctuations and a wide variation in annualmarket prices, due to external factors - such asweather conditions and pest and disease pressures -leave the GB market sensitive to imported Europeanproduct, dependent on price, quality and variety.
Recent trends in currency and a weak GB sterling ratehave led to an overall reduction in raw potato importsfor the fresh and processing market. However, changingmarket conditions could easily reverse that position.
Potato Council recognises the importance of havingreliable information to better understand Europeanand international potato market dynamics. This isachieved through a network of dedicated MarketIntelligence contacts in Europe, the Middle Eastand North Africa and the USA.
North-West European Potato Growers (NEPG)Established in 1997, representing the five leadingpotato growing countries, the NEPG aims to facilitatethe communication of up-to-date, accurate businessinformation for the benefit of the industry. (For a list ofmembers see page 26.) It also aims to improve thestability of the EU processing supply chain throughinformation provision and exchange. Potato Council isa member of the NEPG and, as such, gains uniqueinsight into the dynamics of the north-west Europeanpotato market and access to information onproduction as well as technical and marketing aspectsof NEPG countries.
Potato Council Euro ReportPotato Council reports market intelligence on theEuropean potato market in its monthly publication ofEuro-Potato as a comprehensive monthly review ofmarkets and crops from NEPG countries (see page 22).
2005NEPG Countries
Production ('000t)Annual VariationTotalArea (ha)Annual VariationTotalYield (t/ha)Annual VariationTotal
22,980
499,369
46.0
2006
-6.7%21,439
0.8%503,587
-7.5%42.6
2007
12.2%24,058
4.7%527,258
7.2%45.6
2008
-0.7%23,899
-2.3%515,338
1.6%46.4
2009
4.2%24,908
3.6%533,834
0.6%46.7
2010
-3.8%23,958
0.0%534,899
-3.8%44.9
6.8%25,574
1.3%540,684
5.5%47.3
2011
GrTurn
£ per G
Source: NEPG September 2011 (as at time of report publication). Based upon summer trial digs by the various member organisations apartfrom Great Britain whose yield is based upon the average from the last �ve years.Current information, including country-by-country breakdown will be available in December 2011.
EU 5 Conservation Potatoes (Excludes Seed and Starch) for Belgium, France, Germany, GB and the Netherlands
Market Intelligence 2011-12
Modelling Work
%C
hang
ein
Pric
efr
omLa
stSe
ason
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
% Change in Production from Last Season
Forecasting Price from Production
%A
rea
Cha
nge
forN
extS
easo
n
2009 2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
20022001
2011
2000
1999
1998
1997
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
80 100 120 140 160 180 200
2010
Average Price £/t
Price Influence on Planted Area
1971-2010
1996-2010
Trend 1971-2010
Trend 1996-2010
Change in production correlates very wellwith change in price, accounting for 87%of variation seen. The data shown is from1970 onwards, with data from 1996 (afterprice stabilisation and quotas ended) ingreen. In general, a 1% change inproduction leads to a 5% change in price,though there are limits to very low prices(production more than 15% higher thanlast year). However, low production candrive very high prices, with price doublingif supply is 30% below the previous year.
Average price has clearly influencedplanting decisions since quotas ended in1996. The data shows that 75% of thevariation in planted area from season toseason depends on price in the previousseason. 2010 is an example: 2009 averageprice was £110. The model (red line)predicts a 3% fall in plantings at this level.The actual drop in plantings was 2.9%.2011 plantings, which are marginally downin spite of high 2010 prices, is a deviationfrom the model may be related to highcereal prices influencing plantingdecisions.
Taken with the effect of production onprice, this drives the cyclic nature of theproduction-price relationship. Low priceslead to reduced plantings, hence lowerproduction and higher prices, which in turnleads to a subsequent drop in plantings.
We have the capacity to undertake modelling work, which includes priceforecasting from production and how weather patterns affect yield.
1616 GB Potatoes
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Yiel
d(t
/ha)
Sum
mer
Rai
nfal
l(m
m)
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
17
Yield and Seasonal Rainfall
Rainfall
Yield
• GB average yields since1992 have fluctuatedaround 44.8 t/ha
- Moderate summerrainfall improves yield,up to a point
- Excess summer rainfalldecreases yield
Moderate summerrainfall improvesyield, up to a point
Excess summer rainfalldecreases yield
Market Intelligence 2011-12
Suns
hine
(hou
rs)
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Sunshine 1960-2010
• Annual hours of sunshine in 2010remained similar to the previous year
• The hours of sunshine in all seasonswere very similar to 2009
• The general trend is accelerating
Annual Total
Annual Trend
18
Tem
per
atur
e(d
egre
esC
)
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Temperature 1960-2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Yiel
d(t
/ha)
GB Yields 1960-2010
Weather Data for England and Walestaken from Met Office website:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/for rainfall, temperature and sunshine worksheets
• Average yields doubled from 1960to 1990, slower growth since
• Significant year-to-year variation dueto weather
Yield
Trend
• Mean annual temperature dropped byc.1 ⁰C, in 2010, this was mainly becauseof the cold weather in autumn
• The general trend of temperatureis increasing:
Pros: longer growing seasonand higher yield
Cons: Warmer winter favourspests and diseases
Annual Mean
June-August
March-May
Annual Trend
June-August Trend
March-May Trend
GB Potatoes
World Production
Commodity Production (MT)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Sugar cane
Maize
Wheat
Rice, paddy
Cow’s milk, whole, fresh
Potatoes
Vegetables, fresh
Cassava
Sugar beet
Soybeans
Tomatoes
Barley
Indigenous pig meat
Sweet potatoes
Watermelons
Bananas
Bu�alo milk, whole, fresh
Indigenous chicken meat
Onions, dry
Apples
1,661,251,480
818,823,434
685,614,399
685,240,469
583,401,740
329,581,307
248,591,881
233,795,973
227,158,114
223,184,884
152,956,115
152,125,329
106,587,529
102,297,894
98,047,947
97,378,272
92,138,146
80,211,981
73,231,830
71,286,632
Country 2007
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
*Potato Council data (see page 7)
Belarus
Montenegro
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Estonia
Rwanda
Poland
Ireland
Kazakhstan
Lebanon
Malawi
Kyrgyzstan
Romania
Latvia
Lithuania
Azerbaijan
Great Britain
Netherlands
Denmark
Portugal
188.9
178.3
133.5
130.9
127.2
125.2
122.9
113.2
111.6
104.4
100.4
98.3
98.0
97.9
96.8
94.6
92.7
92.0
81.6
81.1
*
Area Production (MT)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
*Potato Council data (see page 8)
China
India
Russian Federation
Ukraine
United States of America
Germany
Poland
France
Netherlands
Belarus
Great Britain
Bangladesh
Canada
Turkey
Iran (Islamic Republic of )
Romania
Egypt
Peru
Brazil
Belgium
73,281,890
34,391,000
31,134,000
19,666,100
19,569,100
11,617,500
9,702,800
7,226,310
7,181,000
7,124,980
6,192,000
5,268,000
4,581,120
4,397,710
4,107,630
4,003,980
4,000,000
3,716,700
3,443,710
3,296,080
*
World Production by Commodity 2009
World Top Potato Producers 2009
Potato Consumption - World Top 20(kg/capita/yr) 2007 raw equivalent
19Market Intelligence 2011-12
For the latestversions go to:
http://faostat.fao.org/
Source: FAOSTAT
The Potato Council MarketInformation Committee
Appendix 1
20 GB Potatoes
Potato Council Market Information Committee 2011/12
Grower MembersRichard Ash – KentColin Bradley – LancashireJohn Davison – StaffordshireRalph Day – LincolnshireRobert Loxton – NorfolkArnold Peacock – CambridgeshireAndrew Shaw – CheshireRichard Solari – Shropshire
Purchaser MembersRobert Baird – Greenvale AP LtdRichard Clark – Branston LimitedMartin Cockerill – R S Cockerill (York) LtdGraham Finn – McCain Foods (GB) LtdStephen Uttridge – Higgins Agriculture Ltd
Industry StakeholdersJames Edwards – National Farmers Union (NFU)Richard Harris OBE – Director General of the Potato Processors AssociationKathleen Kelliher – DefraJohn Speirs – Scottish GovernmentNick Tapp (Committee Chairman and Potato Council Board Member) – Bidwells
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) MembersKen Boyns – AHDB Market Intelligence DirectorRob Clayton – Potato Council DirectorJim Davies – AHDB Market Intelligence Senior AnalystAllan Stevenson – Potato Council Chairman
Market Intelligence data and deliveries areregularly peer reviewed via the Potato CouncilMarket Information Committee. The committeeis made up of potato growers, packers,processors, industry bodies, government andseed suppliers to ensure the informationprovided continues to meet current industryneeds. The committee also recommends newareas of focus as the potato industry develops.
The latestelectronic versionof this report isavailable at:
www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/publications
OCT DEC - MAR MAR - MAY MAY - JUL JUNAPR - NOV APR
SEP SEP - OCT NOV DEC - MARNOV OCT - JUL
JUN - AUG JUN - SEP AUG AUG - NOV JUL - OCT
Field selectionand soil testing
Seed deliveryand chitting
*Plantingsurvey
*Levy returndata
*Grower Panelsurvey
*Earlycrop line
*1st plantingestimate
*Annual trends(previous season)
Tuber bulking(!eld quality &
size testing)
*Area byvariety
*Lifting survey Supply fromthe !eld
*Grower Panelsurvey
Store loading *Provisionalsupply estimate
*Defracontract
*Stocks andutilisation
Supplyex store
How Market Intelligence surveys and publications fit into the potato calendar:
Potato Council Data Collection1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Prod
uctio
n('0
00s
tonn
es)
Har
vest
edyi
eld
(ton
nes/
ha)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Production Yield per ha Yield Trend
*AHDB/Potato Council Market Intelligence outputs
of the total cropis stored by growers
on the farm
55%
21
Appendix 2
Market Intelligence 2011-12
Potato Council MarketIntelligence Information Services
Potato Council website
www.potato.org.uk is the first port of call for annual and seasonalanalysis on price and crop reporting, statistics on area, yield,production, supplies and disposals, plus retail and foodservicedata. The website also contains the latest version of the GBWeekly Price and monthly Euro-Potato newsletters.
Potato Weekly
Potato Weekly summarises weekly price information gatheredfrom the Potato Council’s own surveys. The Weekly AveragePrice Survey (WAPS) provides two overall indexes, the WAPSIndex and the WAPS Free-Buy Index. These prices are summarisedfrom returns made each week by contributing merchants covering40-50% of movements. It is a top-line economic indicator of thepotato industry and is also used by the Eurex Potato Futuresmarket as a settlement price for London Potatoes. A weeklycompilation based on the Potato Council’s Pricing Panel and fromtelephone surveys of merchants also provides more detailed high,low and average prices by varieties and market sectors.
Euro-Potato
Euro-Potato is a monthly review of crops and markets from themajor potato growing countries in northern Europe and beyond.
AHDB Potato Market Intelligence providesa range of information services to assistproducers and merchants with immediatepricing decisions, market planning andunderstanding the longer-term trends inthe potato industry.
New andimproved website
�Better navigation
�Better layout
�Easier to findthe informationyou need
22 GB Potatoes
Appendix 3
Retail Report
The Retail Report and Foodservice Report were createdby the Market Intelligence Consumer Insight team. They areproduced from data that we have been able to access at reducedcost due to collaborative purchasing by AHDB.
The monthly Retail Report covers data, including top-line marketsales information, for fresh, frozen and pre-prepared potatoes. Thereport also looks at how potatoes are performing by retailer, withall of the top five supermarkets covered. It also contains pricinginformation and a section that provides snippets of the latestpotato news in the media. The majority of the data usedin the report is sourced from Kantar Worldpanel.
Foodservice Report
The quarterly Foodservice Report utilises information fromNPD Crest. The foodservice market is defined as food and drinkpurchased and consumed outside of the home. The report looksat how potatoes are performing in terms of what is being eatenand where.
Consumer Report
The quarterly Consumer Report also utilises data from Kantarbut looks at the in-home consumption of potatoes. So, whereasthe Retail Report details what people are purchasing, theConsumer Report tells us what, how and when they are consumingpotatoes. The main focus of the report is the potato category butthis is also put into a competitive context with information on thetotal carbohydrates category, which covers rice and pasta.
Telephone Bag Line
The national bag trade hotline is updated each Tuesday(tel: 0844 3356 104). The hotline provides the latest on crop andprice information for bag sales. (Calls cost 5p per minute fromBT lines.)
The Early Crop Line
A regional early crop price line is also available from May to Julyeach year and the telephone number is advertised in PotatoWeekly and on www.potato.org.uk
23Market Intelligence 2011-12
Levy-Payer Data Centre
The data centre features informationgathered from a stratified sample of 350growers, 500 weekly market informationcontacts and national planting return data.Go to: www.potato.org.uk/online-toolbox/data-centre
Levy-payers who are registeredon the Potato Council website(www.potato.org.uk) can accessreal-time potato marketinformation in Great Britain onareas, varieties, yields, productionand prices.
Information:
• By variety• By geography• By sector
24 GB Potatoes
Appendix 4
Data Sources
Levy Collection DataThe Agriculture and Horticulture Development BoardOrder 2008 requires AHDB to raise levies relating toeach sector. (Details can be found at the following webaddress: http://www.ahdb.org.uk/about/LevyRates.aspx)
The information provided in the planting return forlevy collection is not only used to calculate area leviesbut it is also a very important source of marketintelligence. Using the return data avoids the need forseparate forms and helps save levy funds. The marketsector information of the planting return form gives ususeful knowledge about the GB potato market; ithelps us develop our communication strategy andenables us to provide information and feedback togrowers in a more targeted and cost efficient manner.
The Potato Council Pricing PanelThe Panel is open to growers who wish to contributeprice information; to ensure wide and accuratecoverage of the pricing situation from week to week.A total of 200 regular contacts - a combination ofgrowers and purchasers - are called on a weekly basis.These contacts represent the key supply areas for thedifferent markets of the potato supply chain andvarieties grown across different regions of GB. If youare interested in becoming a Pricing Panel member,please call the AHDB Market Intelligence departmenton 0247 669 2051.
Weekly Average Price Survey (WAPS)This survey is open to all merchants or processorswho purchase potatoes direct from growers. Theycomplete a form each week summarising total tonnageand value of purchases, categorised by bags/bulk andcontract/free-buy. This data is subject to randomauditing. These are processed by the Market Intelligenceteam to calculate the WAPS average price and free-buyaverage price. This ensures that the WAPS index is asfair, robust and representative as possible. This helps togive realism and stability to the London futures marketand accuracy to economic assessments of the potatoindustry. For further information on joining the WAPSsurvey, please call the AHDB Market Intelligencedepartment on 0247 669 2051.
Potato Council Grower Panel SurveyThis survey is based on a randomly selected sampleof fields. Growers within the sample are invited toparticipate. They complete three forms which coverinformation on agronomy, seed use, yields, storageand marketing of production from the designated field.To cover their time for this, panel members receive£100 per field. Additionally, through the Grower Panelwebsite there is access to current and detailed GrowerPanel and Pricing Panel summaries and growers canview and edit their own field information on thewebsite. An invitation is sent with the AHDB plantingreturn forms each year. The survey also monitorsplanting and lifting of the GB crop.
776Grower Panel
Crops
8Survey
Contractors
PotatoCouncil
Potato Council Grower Panel Survey
25Market Intelligence 2011-12
Appendix 5
26 GB Potatoes
NEPG Representative Organisations
OrganisationsCountry
France
Belgium
Germany
The Netherlands
GB
UNPT – Union Nationale des Producteurs de Pommes de Terre.National Potato Grower Union.
Fiwap – Walloon region market information centre for potatoes and stock surveys.Represents regional potato growers on behalf of Government.
Interprovinciaal Proefcentrum voor de Aardappelteelt (PCA)– Flanders region potato research organisation.Also gathers economic data and price information. Farmers Union.
ABS – Farmers Union for smaller farmers.
AMI – Agrarmarkt Informations Gesellschaft; market research organisation, privatised in 2009.
REKA – Grower organisation for Rheinland area, one of the leading growing regions in Germany,mainly processing.
VTA – Market and price information centre for arable products, with 600 leading grower membersand represents 40% of the whole ware crop.
Pha! Export Marketing – Export marketing company.Represents Potato Council on the continent and has responsibility for translations in NEPG.
Potato Council – Potato industry representative organisation.
Appendix 6
More information is available at: www.nepg.info
27Market Intelligence 2011-12
Glossary
Earlies – Refers to all potatoes harvested on orbefore 31 July. At this time of year maincrop supplieswill still be available from the previous season’s crop.
Maincrop – Potatoes are denoted as being maincropif harvested after the end of July.
Prices – All prices are ex-farm and exclude the priceof bags.
Trend – In this context the word trend is used tohighlight the line or curve of best fit.
Years – All years are June/May unless otherwisestated.
Yields – All potato yields quoted in this publicationrelate to harvested tonnage and are expressed interms of planted area.
Plantings – All references to plantings imply themeasurement of planted area and refer to registeredproducers only.
Processed – All references to processed productshave been converted to their raw equivalent tonnages.
Conversion Rates – The following ratios have beenused to convert processed potato product weight toraw equivalent tonnage: Canned 1:1.0; Crisped 1:4.0;Dehydrated 1:6.2; Frozen/Chilled 1:1.9.
28
To give us your feedback on the report or for furtherinformation about our Market Intelligence services,please contact:
Jim Davies (Senior Analyst)T: 0247 647 8786M: 07581 628819E: [email protected]
Matthew Southam (Senior Analyst – Retail & Consumer Insight)T: 0247 647 8844E: [email protected]
www.ahdb.org.ukwww.potato.org.uk
GB Potatoes Market Intelligence 2011-12
The latestelectronic versionof this report isavailable at:
www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/publications
Contacts
Potato CouncilAgriculture and Horticulture Development BoardStoneleigh Park, Warwickshire CV8 2TL
Telephone: 0247 669 2051www.potato.org.uk
© Agriculture and HorticultureDevelopment Board 2011.All rights reserved
Potato Council is a division of the Agricultureand Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)
The latestelectronic versionof this report isavailable at:
www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/publications