Gas and Power in a low carbon Economy (ppt, 4928KB)

‘Gas & Power in a Low Carbon Economy’ 17th Autumn Gas Conference, Florence

November 2002

John MogfordBP Group Vice President

2

A Low Carbon Economy

What is it ?

What will shape it ?

How are we positioning for it ?

3

Beyond Petroleum ?

… the view of the WorldWatch Institute

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21502100

100

40

80

20

60

0

Solids

Gases

Liquids

Methane

Methane

Hydrogen

Oil and hydro

Wood and hay

Coal and nuclear

“city gas” hydrogen

Whale oil

Oil and natural gas liquids

Percentage of total market

Source : WorldWatch Institute

1. Energy & Emission Efficiency

Past Present Future

2. Decarbonisation of Fuels

3. RenewablesFuel Cells

Gas replacingCoal

Hydrogen Economy

Novel Low Energy Processes

CO2 Capture

pv Solar

Energy Efficiency

DGI & Hybrids

Wind

Reduce Flaring& Venting

Today’s Journey to a Low Carbon Economy

Gas for Transport

WaveHydro

5

Gas Is Key to the Low Carbon Economy…

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1971 2000 2010 2020 2030

Power Other

bcm

6

…But Low Carbon Policies Could Reduce Projected Gas Growth

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

MTO

E

2010 2020 2030

Energy Savings - Alternative Scenario

Coal

Oil

Gas

Fossil Fuel Savings in OECD under IEA Alternative Policies Model

Source : IEA

7

Policy-setting and the Growth of the Low Carbon Economy

Developmental

Innovative Mature

Stimulating competition

Creating levelplaying fields

Incentivising

Infrastructure

Establishing Green“Market-

Mechanisms”

Stimulating ‘non specific’

technology

Speculative Investment

Removing Barriers

Hydrogen

Oil

Coal

PhotovoltaicsGas

Regulating Open Access

Promoting Market Take-Up

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How Are We Positioning for It ?

Becoming more efficient in terms of carbon

Decarbonising our portfolio faster than society

Alignment with customer needs

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Beyond Petroleum - Tres Cantos, Madrid