Ganges Basin Development Challenge & role of change and coordination project
May 26, 2015
Ganges Basin Development Challenge & role of change and coordination project
Why the Ganges Basin?
• Bangladesh and India rank first and second in terms of climate change risk. Poverty, Agricultural Dependence are the basis of South Asian Risk.
• The areas of Bangladesh and India most at risk are the coastal- saline zones of Ganges Basin.
Lessons learned in our coastal saline areas have application in
coastal communities around the world.
Ganges- Basin Development Challenge
Myanmar
Geographical setting
Ganges Basin:
Ganges Basin Area = 1,087,300 sq. km
Coastal Area of Bangladesh
• Population >40 million, 28% of total population
• Total area 47,201 km2, ~1000 people/km2
Major Challenges in Ganges Coastal Areas
Water logging
Fresh water limitations
Increasing soil/surface water salinity
Salinity intrusion
Cyclone
Sea level rise
Severe cyclonic storms
Siltation
Salinity intrusion
Flood
Salinity Intrusion
Goal is to reduce poverty, improve food security and strengthen livelihood resilience in coastal areas through improved water governance and management, and more productive and diversified farm system.
Objective to improve resource productivity and increase resilience of agriculture and aquaculture systems in brackish water coastal areas of the Ganges
What the Ganges BDC hopes to achieve?
Study Area:
Ganges Dependant Area in Bangladesh
Coastal Divisions: Barisal: Patuakhali, Barguna, Jhalakati & Pirojpur districtsKhulna: Khulna & Satkhira districts
Project Target Area:Coastal Zone of the Ganges basin in Bangladesh except the Sundarbans
Coastal Polders in Bangladesh
In the early sixties and seventies, 125 polders (of which 49 are sea-facing) were constructed to protect low lying coastal areas from tidal flood & salinity intrusion.
Five research projects (G1-5) that will:
• Provide science-based solutions to agriculture and water issues of the region
• Seek to support Governments of Bangladesh and India and other investments in a range of agriculture programs
• Support government policy makers and civil society with the information and skills they need in the areas of water governance and potential impacts of climate change
How the Ganges BDC hopes to achieve?
Ganges BDC : 5 Science Programs Land Use, Water and Water Governance and Agriculture
systems:• G1. Resource profiles, extrapolation domains (EDA) and land-
use plans • G2. Farming Systems : Resilient intensified and diversified
agriculture and aquaculture systems • G3. Water governance and community-based management • G4. Modeling Change Assessment of the impact of anticipated
external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone • G5. Coordination and change-enabling project
G3: Water Governance and Community-Based Management
• Assess existing water governance and land use systems.• Determine which governance systems offer the best outcomes for
communities and reduce conflict across different users.• How these governance systems best meet the needs of polder
communities and the water requirements of different production systems.
Research to understand best approaches to water management in polders
Selection of sub-projects(polders)
Data Collection and AnalysisFormation of Water
Management Organisations (WMO)
Plan Formulation and Finalisation
Rehabilitation Work
Long-term Operation and Maintenance
Monitoring and Plan review Monitoring and
Plan review
• Assess changes in external hydrology (and other external drivers of change) in the coastal zone of the Ganges at the regional and with selected polders.
• Model conditions and effects for salinity intrusion, water availability, drainage congestions and risk of inundation due to storm surges.
• Simulate baseline and changed conditions in 2020, 2030 and 2050. At regional level for and at local levels for the selected polders
G4: Modeling External Drivers of Change for Water Resources of the Coastal Zone
Hydrologic Trend Analysis in the Study Area:
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Max Q Linear (Max Q) Min Q Linear (Min Q)Average Q Linear (Average Q)
Disc
harg
e (m
3/s)
• Increasing trend of annual maximum flow
• Decreasing trend of annual minimum flow
Data Collection and Hydrological Analysis; Trend analysis of Ganges River Discharge
Jan/
2005
Jan/
2005
Mar
/200
5Ap
r/20
05M
ay/2
005
May
/200
5Ju
n/20
05Ju
l/20
05Au
g/20
05Se
p/20
05O
ct/2
005
Nov
/200
5De
c/20
05Ja
n/20
06Fe
b/20
06M
ar/2
006
Apr/
2006
May
/200
6Ju
n/20
06Ju
l/20
06Au
g/20
06Se
p/20
06O
ct/2
006
Nov
/200
6De
c/20
06Ja
n/20
07Fe
b/20
07M
ar/2
007
Apr/
2007
May
/200
7Ju
n/20
07Ju
l/20
07Au
g/20
07Se
p/20
07O
ct/2
007
Nov
/200
7De
c/20
07Ja
n/20
08Fe
b/20
08M
ar/2
008
Apr/
2008
May
/200
8Ju
n/20
08Ju
l/20
08Au
g/20
08Se
p/20
08O
ct/2
008
Nov
/200
8De
c/20
08Ja
n/20
09Fe
b/20
09M
ar/2
009
Apr/
2009
May
/200
9Ju
n/20
09Ju
l/20
09Au
g/20
09Se
p/20
09O
ct/2
009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Noapara Ghat Fultola Ghat Charerhat Ghat Rupsha Ghat Mollarhat
Salin
ity (P
PT)
Salinity Trends
Monthly Salinity Monitoring (Data Source: Department of Environment, DOE)
DRIVERS OF CHANGE – IDENTIFIED THROUGH PARTICIPATORY PROCESS
Demographic/SocietalPopulation growth, Land use change
Economic/TradeEconomic develpopment in coastal zone (change in per capita income)
Political/Institutional/LegalWater policy (national and regional)
Environmental/Climate ChangeSea level rise due to Climate ChangeChanges in precipitation and temperature due to Climate Change
Technological/Important InnovationsChanges in aquaculture and agriculture intensification
G5. Coordination and Change-Enabling Project
• Coordination and quality of research: Coordinate and support G 1-4 to assure quality and relevant science
• Fostering change: Participatory impact pathway analysis, M&E to pick up on emergent opportunities, outcome/logic models.
• Communications: Support achievement of change in target actors and scale up of research results.
• Adaptive management: M&E providing information and insight to support good adaptive management decisions
• Innovation research: Research to find innovative ways to turn research into developmental outcomes
1 Establish Adaptive management system2. Gender strategy3. Communication strategy4. Policy products and processes 5. Development actors engaged6. Innovation research findings
Expected Outputs of coordination project
Means of Achievement• Focus on three streams of innovation, integrate them, and
scale up these strategies to a wider range of polder categories and land types
– First stream: Water management, water governance and the future of water for agriculture. (G3 and G4)
– Second stream: development of institutions for community-based resource management. (G3, G5)
– Third stream: farming systems crop management practices for salt-affected lands. (G1, G2).
Links across the Projects
• Identification of agro-ecological zones for targeting improved technologies and water governance arrangements
• Inspiring NARES, NGOs and other out scaling projects to adopt and promote the improved technologies
• Influencing policy makers and government at community to national levels to invest in the necessary infrastructure improvements and policy changes
Approach to Change Enabling
• Government Agencies… BARC, BRRI, DAE, DoF etc • NGOs – BRAC, CARE and other large NGOs • Private Sector Linkages… seed companies, hatcheries etc• Ongoing Projects and Studies
– Bangladesh CIP– Cereal Systems Initiative For South Asia (CSISA)– Global Agriculture Food Security (GAFSP)– Master Plan for the Southern Delta
Partnerships are key - Scale up/out stakeholders