GALLUP WORLD POLL Insights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances Gerver Torres March 2009.

GALLUP WORLD POLL

Insights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances

Gerver TorresMarch 2009

2

The World Poll

Annually polling 95% of the Earth's adult population

Conducted in more than 150 countries and territories

Largest available independent source

of key world behavioral and economic data.

Same core questions asked across nations and over time, allowing for harmonized international data.

Rigorous measurement methodology Nationally representative data -

includes both urban and rural areas Samples of at least 1,000 adults per

country

3

Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances

Some direct questions on migration and remittances in the World Poll:

Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?

To which country would you like to move? (Open ended and code) Are you planning to move permanently to that country in the next 12

months? Have any members of your household, aged 15 to 60, gone to live in a

foreign country permanently or temporarily in the past five years? For the person who went most recently, what was the highest level of

his/her education? In which country does/did he/she live?

4

Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not?

In which country, or countries, do they live? Approximately, how much money in [local currency] does this

household receive from relatives living abroad per month? If for some reason your household stopped receiving these

remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing? Do you personally know of someone who is planning to move out of

[country] in the next 12 months, or not? Do you personally know of someone who was living outside of [country]

and returned in the past 12 months, or not?


5

How many members of this household work temporarily in another country?

In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you.

Are any of your family members or relatives currently studying or are in a work study program abroad (including countries of the former Soviet Union), or not?

In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you.

Were you born in this country, [country], or not?


Not always easy to ask those questions…

6

“Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?”

Cuba

Gallup World Poll and Migration

7

Some findings

8

Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate

AFRICA 35.20% 6.70%THE AMERICAS 28.50% 3.30%ASIA 16.40% 1.90%EUROPE 18.10% 0.70%Total 21.70% 3.20%

Wish Plan

Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted equally

9


Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted by population of adults aged 15 or older

AFRICA 33.41% 6.39%THE AMERICAS 17.80% 1.77%ASIA 9.02% 0.66%EUROPE 18.03% 0.84%World total 13.61% 1.40%

Want to migrate Plan to migrate

10

AFRICA 136.2 26.0THE AMERICAS 113.7 11.3ASIA 247.6 18.1EUROPE 76.9 3.6 World Total 574.6 Million 59.1 Million

Values in millions of people


Want to migrate Plan to migrate

11

Wanting to migrate by country

Sierra Leone 64.50%Guyana 59.60%

Congo (Kinshasa) 58.80%Ghana 58.30%Nigeria 58.20%Liberia 57.90%Zimbabwe 56.80%Dominican Republic 56.50%Senegal 55.50%Uganda 51.00%Malawi 50.90%Haiti 50.80%El Salvador 49.20%Cameroon 49.10%Ethiopia 46.10%

Tajikistan 10.70%Laos 10.50%Finland 10.40%Austria 9.20%South Africa 8.20%Spain 7.90%India 7.70%Uzbekistan 7.70%Australia 7.60%Malaysia 7.30%Pakistan 6.80%Indonesia 6.00%China 5.90%Thailand 5.90%Saudi Arabia 3.10%

Top 15 Bottom 15

12

Planning to migrate by country

Congo Brazzaville 28.00%Djibouti 22.20%Senegal 20.80%Haiti 14.80%Zimbabwe 13.30%

Algeria 13.10%Sierra Leone 12.60%Afghanistan 11.80%Liberia 10.60%Mali 9.10%Nigeria 8.80%Palestine 8.40%Honduras 8.00%Lebanon 7.20%Tanzania 7.20%

Austria 0.50%United States 0.40%Turkey 0.40%Netherlands 0.40%Sweden 0.40%Singapore 0.40%India 0.40%Uganda 0.40%Indonesia 0.30%China 0.30%Russia 0.30%Ireland 0.30%Denmark 0.20%Malaysia 0.20%Japan 0.10%

Top 15 Bottom 15

Net Migration 2002-2006

13

Wishing to Migrate 2008 World Poll

14

Plans to Migrate World Poll 2008

15

Receiving Remittances World Poll 2008

16

Country Level Analysis of Migration Data

How do our World Poll migration data relate to net migration rates?

It’s a tricky process to convert our survey data to net migration data (e.g., Is our sample size sufficient?, Can we reliably generate the 150 country x 150 country matrix needed to calculate this?) We’re working on this. But we do know this:

The correlation between net migration rates between 2002 and 2006 and the percentage of people in a given country who receive remittances in 2008 is r = -.38 worldwide (and much higher everywhere except in Africa).

This may not sound very high but migration is less stable over time than people assume. The correlation between 2002-2006 net migration and 2008 net migration is only r = .56.

17

18

Best predictors for wanting and planning to migrate

1. Having a plan to start your own business .2. Living in a low GDP country.3. Being single.4. Perceiving that hard work doesn’t pay off in your own society.5. Living in an urban area (city or suburb).6. Having a high household income (relative to others in your country)7. Being young.8. Being distressed (index of pain, worry, sadness and stress)9. Being dissatisfied with your standard of living10.Being male. 11.Being religious12.Being unemployed

19

Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors

Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?

Percentage Wanting toMigrate

The more of the ten migration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to want to Migrate.

Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

20

Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors

Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months?

Percentage Planning toMigrate

The more of the ten emigration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to plan to Migrate.

Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

21

Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances

Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?


Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are still more likely to want to Migrate.

22

Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate:Receipt of Remittances

Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?


Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are twice as likely to plan to migrate.

23

The message behind remittances

What is the message that comes with remittances?

• The situation there is better than here

• If he or she can do it why can’t I?

•There is some one there I can count on

24

Jobs and migration

Do you have a job?


25

Jobs and migration

Do you have a job?


26

Jobs and migration

Are you satisfied with your job?


27

Jobs and migration

Are you satisfied with your job?


28

Having a plan to start your own business

Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months?


29

Having a plan to start your own business for those who do NOT believe that working hard in their home country pays off:

Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months?


30

Who are those who want to migrate?

The concept of well being in the World Poll:

“Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?”

31


10

0

7

5

4

6

Thriving

Struggling

Suffering

The concept of well being in the World Poll:

32


GDP groupIncome in Local Currency Well being Mean

bottom quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.293struggling 0.186thriving 0.238

Richest 20% suffering 0.344struggling 0.274thriving 0.304

top quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.199struggling 0.091thriving 0.114


33

Who are those who are planning to migrate?

GDP groupIncome in Local Currency wellbeing Mean

bottom quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.06struggling 0.04thriving 0.05


top quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.008struggling 0.006thriving 0.007


34

Latin America

For Latin Americans Migration is a “Win, Win” Deal

35

When you think of the people who go to live in other countries, do you consider them to be a big problem or a big help for….

(% that think of migrants as problem/ help)

For the sending country For their families For the receiving countries

Reasons to migrate

To escape from poverty 37.8To make money and help loved ones back home 29.1To achieve higher personal or professional growth 16.8To give a better education to their kids 5.3To be able to afford house 3.9To escape from crime 2.9To escape from political conflict 1.3

36

In your opinion, which or the following is the single most important reasonwhy people migrate from this country?

Where they plan to go to

United States 35.3Spain 21.5Canada 4.5Argentina 4Brazil 3.3Italy 3.2Mexico 2.6France 2.4United Kingdom 1.8

37

%

Expectations on remittances

Stayed the same 47.5Increase 19.3Decrease 18

38

%

In the next twelve months, do you expect the amount of remittances this household receives, to increase, decrease or stay the same?

Surprised by current Financial turbulence

What do you do with remittances?

Covering basic needs 53.9Saving 14.1Other (Specify) 7.5Educating kids 6.2Building a house 3Starting a business 3Buying a car/other durable goods 2.3

39

If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing?

Using a loan with remittances as collateral

Yes 34.2No 59.6(DK) 5.5(Refused) 0.7

40

If you were offered a loan for an amount equivalent to six months worth of remittances, and the monthly payments on it were reasonable enough for you to afford, would you take this loan or not?

41

Percentage of Residents with Relatives Living Abroad in 12 Latin American Countries

42

Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad &(2) Also Receive Remittances in 12 Latin American Countries

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil Relatives Abroad

Get Remittances

43

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances & (3) Also Desire to be EntrepreneursIn 12 Latin American Countries

Relatives Abroad

Get Remittances

Entrepreneurs

44

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances, (3) Desire to be Entrepreneurs, and (4) Feel Loans Are Hard to Get in 12 Latin American Countries

Relatives Abroad

Get Remittances

Entrepreneurs

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mexico

Haiti

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Republic

Peru

Guatemala

Ecuador

Paraguay

Honduras

El Salvador

Brazil

Feel Loans are Hard to Get

45

Number of Residents Likely to be Interested in Small Business Loans in 12 Latin American Countries (in Millions of People)

GALLUP WORLD POLL Insights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances Gerver Torres March 2009.

Documents