GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTY Comprehensive Plan Update Land Demand & Development Capacity May 28, 2003.

GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTYComprehensive Plan Update

Land Demand & Development Capacity

May 28, 2003

Tonight we will Discuss:

Where we are in the Planning Process

Why we do a Demand and Capacity Analysis

The method and results of the Demand Analysis

The method and results of the Capacity Analysis

Comparison of the Demand to Capacity

What this means for the City/County

Where are we in this process?

Land Demand Analysis

Land Capacity Analysis

Vision and Policy

Development

Plan Development

Implementation Strategy

Project Initiation

Inventories

Public Outreach

Why do a Demand & Capacity Analysis

Identify potential future growth pressures

Identify the current capacity of the City/County to deal with potential growth

To create a baseline for “what if” scenarios

To establish a foundation for the discussion of policy questions How should we prepare for the future?

Caution: These analyses and forecasts represent what could happen if current trends continue and current policies are implemented. They do not reflect a value judgment as to whether they are desirable or not.

What Have We Heard?

Five Consensus Planning Themes:Quality GrowthEfficient GrowthFiscally Sound GrowthUrban and Rural GrowthCoordinated Growth

Five Attributes of Growth

Location of Growth

Amount of Growth

Rate and Timing of Growth

Fiscal Impact of Growth

Quality and Environmental Impact of Growth

The Demand Analysis

Bill Ross

Demand AnalysisMethodology

1. Population and employment forecasts

2. Translate population into dwelling units in different categories

3. Translate employment into land use categories

4. Translate employment into square footage and acreage

Forecasts

Past trends – we looked back: Thirty years (1970-2000)Recent past (the 1990s)

Natural growth process affected by:Market response to land availability Infrastructure constraintsRedevelopment, communication diversityTechnological innovation

Forecasts

Assumptions Past trends represent a valid anticipation of

future change in Hall County and its cities. Those past trends will continue with few changes

in the market forces that created them. Factors that would otherwise limit growth

naturally will not begin to affect growth until the latter portion of the 2030 forecast horizon.

Forecasts

Hall County

2003—2030

Population

162,372—489,366

Employment

95,605—280,792

Hall County Total

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Past Population Future Population

Past Employment Future Employment

Forecasts

Gainesville

2003—2030

Population

29,662—87,309

Employment

51,924—92,088

City of Gainesville

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Past Population Future Population

Past Employment Future Employment

Comparison to Other Counties

30-Year Comparison:

Population

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Gwinnett Co 1970-2000 Cobb Co 1970-2000 Hall Co 2000-2030

Comparison to Other Counties

30-Year Comparison:

Employment

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Gwinnett Co 1970-2000 Cobb Co 1970-2000 Hall Co 2000-2030

Residential DemandSummary--Residential Demand to 2030Hall County and City of Gainesville

Hall County City of Hall County Outside Gainesville Gainesville Total

Single-Family 95,345 10,996 106,341 Two-Family (Duplex) 1,885 913 2,798 Multi-Family 5,487 9,188 14,675 Other 46 - 46

TOTAL New Housing Units 102,762 21,098 123,860

- 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000

Hall OutsideGainesville

Gainesville

Housing Units

2003

2030

Nonresidential DemandSummary--Nonresidential Demand to 2030Hall County and City of Gainesville

Hall County City of Hall County Outside Gainesville Gainesville Total

Total Floor Area IncreaseRetail Commercial 15,252,300 4,397,100 19,649,400Office 12,624,420 3,969,120 16,593,540Industrial 26,875,790 6,263,500 33,139,290Government, Semi-Public 6,698,100 2,007,300 8,705,400

TOTAL Nonres Floor Area 61,450,610 16,637,020 78,087,630

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Hall OutsideGainesville

Gainesville

Nonresidential Floor Area (millions)

2003

2030

Questions about Demand?

The Capacity Analysis

Greg Dale

Capacity Analysis Methodology

1. Identify available land (Gross Land)

2. Identify constraints to land (Net Land)

3. Identify Potential Development Areas (PDAs)

4. Assign Development Density

5. Calculate Residential Unit and Nonresidential Building Area Capacity

How much land is available?

Assumptions Vacant Parcels in City Most land zoned for

agriculture in the County Conservation land, in

floodplains or stream buffers is not available

Certain small fragments of land are not included

Only includes land in Gainesville and unincorporated Hall County

Ac res

138,116

ac res

4,429

ac res

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Gross Avalible Land

Gainesville

Hall County

Net Land

Assumptions The way steep slope

reduces the capacity of land varies

15 % of Gross Land is needed for infrastructure

Gross AcresNet Acres

138,116

acres

4,429

acres

117,399

acres

3,765

acres

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Net Avalible Land

(85 % of Gross)

Gainesville

Hall County

Residential Capacity Assumptions

Calculated for areas currently designated for residential development

Guided by existing Comprehensive Plan, adopted land use density and Zoning Regulations

Different between City and County

High and low scenario

108,109 Net Acres for Residential

76,640Acres

0Acres

28,120Acres

562Acres0

Acres 2,277Acres0

Acres 240Acres0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Hall Co.

Gainesville

Multi-Family

Urban Land (small lots)

Suburban Land (medium lots)

Rural Land (large lots)

Net Residential Acreage

Hall County –104,760 acres

Gainesville- 3,079 acres

Residential Capacity Density Assumptions

Low Residential

Density (Units/acre)

High Residential

Density (Units/Acre)

Agricultural Land (Rural) 0.50 1.00Rural Residential (Rural) 0.50 1.00

Residential Grow th (Suburban) 1.00 2.00Residential (Suburban) 0.66 1.20

A-R Agricultural Residential (Suburban) 1.64 2.18R-1-A Residential (Suburban) 1.64 2.18

R-I Residential (Urban) 3.28 4.37PRD Residential (Urban) 3.28 4.37

R-II Residential (Multi-Family) 6.00 12.00

Unincorporated Hall County

Gainesville

20,321

37,367

9227,417

1,421

1,210

9,774

2,810

5,280 7,040

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Hall Co. (Low) Hall Co. (High) Gainesville

(Low)

Gainesville

(High)

Other (Low) Other (High)

Other Residential

Multi-Family

Urban Homes (on small lots)

Suburban Homes (on medium lots)

Rural Homes (on large lots)

Residential Unit Capacity (Adjusted)

72,922-131,707 Total Units

Nonresidential CapacityAssumptions

Density based on established “floor area ratios”

Capacity calculated for OfficeCommercial/Retail Industrial

13,322 net acres of nonresidential land

Net Nonresidential Acreage

8,610Acres

92Acres

3,189Acres

511Acres

838Acres

80Acres

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Hal

l Co.

Gai

nesv

ille

Commerc ial/Retail

Office

Industrial

Commercial/Retail-918 acres

Office- 3,281 acres

Industrial-9,122 acres

Nonresidential Density Assumptions

Low FAR High FAR

Unincorporated Hall County

Local Retail/Off ice 0.20 0.25Commercial 0.20 0.25

Industrial 0.25 0.30

Gainesville

All Off ice 0.30 0.35All Commercial 0.20 0.25

All Industrial 0.30 0.35

Nonresidential Building Area Capacity (Adjusted)

27,264,530

94,943,118

7,804,597

33,987,379

113,716,821

9,755,748

26,144,736

88,496,164

7,140,139

32,680,955

106,195,383

8,925,176

1,119,794

6,446,954

664,458

1,306,424

7,521,438

830,572

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

Bu

ild

ing

Sq

ua

re F

oo

tag

e

All (Low) All (High) Hall County

(Low)

Hall County

(High)

Gainesville

(Low)

Gainesville

(High)

COMMERCIAL/RETAIL

INDUSTRIAL

OFFICE

130-157 million SF total nonresidential

Capacity Questions ?

Residential Demand vs. Capacity

72,922

131,507 123,860

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

TOTAL

Total Capacity (Low)

Total Capacity (High)

Total Demand

Residential Demand vs. Capacity

72,922

131,507

123,860

37,561

73,506

14,309

21,243

38,577

53,565

7,417

9,774

38,514

5,280 6,8401,421 2,810

14,675

2,798

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

TOTAL Rural (LargeLots)

Suburban(Medium Lots)

Urban (SmallLots)

Other(suburban or

urban)

Multi-Family Two-Family

Total Capacity (Low)

Total Capacity (High)

Total Demand

Single Family

Ne

w U

nits

Nonresidential Demand vs. Capacity

130,012,245

157,459,948

78,087,630 94,943,118

113,716,821

33,139,290

27,264,530

33,987,379

16,593,5407,804,597

9,755,74819,649,400

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

Total Nonresidential Industrial Office Commercial/Retail

Low Capacity (BuildingArea)

High Capacity (BuildingArea)

Nonresidential Demand(Building Area)

Implications ofDemand and Capacity

There is potential market pressure to “build out” most of Hall County under the current planning policies within the planning horizon

This means that we need to be thinking about the “end state” for the City and County

In some ways, this makes the planning simpler – we are not planning for a portion of the county, only to be revisited again and again

Implications ofDemand and Capacity

We should assume that the future pattern of land uses, intensities, densities, and character proposed in this plan is the final patternWe can identify this final pattern relative to the final level of infrastructure needed to support itOnce we establish the final state, then we address how to get there in the most orderly and efficient way, which includes rate of growth issues, the relationship of land use to infrastructure, the allocation of costs of the infrastructure

Next Month:

Examine the demand and capacity further

Where do we have capacity?

Is it in the right places, both from a market perspective, and from a land use perspective?

How does the capacity of different types of residential land use compare to demand?

Next Month:

Is the “end state” suggested by current policies what the community wants to be in 15-30 years?

What are the policy implications for the Comprehensive Plan?

Questions and Comments