W Q li M d li i h G W Q li M d li i h G W ater Quality Modeling in the Greater W ater Quality Modeling in the Greater Milwaukee Watersheds and the Lake Michigan Milwaukee Watersheds and the Lake Michigan Nearshore Area in Southeastern Wisconsin Nearshore Area in Southeastern Wisconsin Nearshore Area in Southeastern Wisconsin Nearshore Area in Southeastern Wisconsin Presentation to the Lake Michigan Presentation to the Lake Michigan Monitoring Coordinating Council Monitoring Coordinating Council Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine,Walworth,Washington, and Waukesha 1 Monitoring Coordinating Council Monitoring Coordinating Council October 15, 2013 October 15, 2013 #213860
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W Q li M d li i h G W Q li M d li i h G Water Quality Modeling in the Greater Water Quality Modeling in the Greater Milwaukee Watersheds and the Lake Michigan Milwaukee Watersheds and the Lake Michigan Nearshore Area in Southeastern WisconsinNearshore Area in Southeastern WisconsinNearshore Area in Southeastern WisconsinNearshore Area in Southeastern Wisconsin
Presentation to the Lake Michigan Presentation to the Lake Michigan Monitoring Coordinating CouncilMonitoring Coordinating Council
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
U i i f Wi i Mil k /UW University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee/UW-Madison/SEWRPC Climate Change Study for NOAANOAA
MMSD Third-Party Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Study
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
( ) y
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SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 Facilities 2020 Facilities Plan (Water Quality Initiative)Plan (Water Quality Initiative)SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 Facilities 2020 Facilities Plan (Water Quality Initiative)Plan (Water Quality Initiative)
Cooperative Intergovernmental Watershed Based Planning ProgramCooperative Intergovernmental Watershed Based Planning Programg gg g
PPPartners:Partners:
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
Modeling PartnersModeling Partners
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
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Regional and Watershed SettingRegional and Watershed Setting
• Greater Milwaukee Watersheds(1127 i )(1127 sq. mi.)
– Kinnickinnic River (24.7 sq. mi.)– Lake Michigan Direct Drainage
(40.7 sq. mi.)– Menomonee River (135 8 sq mi )Menomonee River (135.8 sq. mi.)– Milwaukee River (700.0 sq. mi.)– Oak Creek (28.2 sq. mi.)– Root River (197.6 sq. mi.)
• MMSD Planning Area (411 sq. mi.)
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
g ( q )
Civil DivisionsCivil Divisions
• Nine CountiesNine Counties– Kenosha, Milwaukee,
Ozaukee, Racine, Washington, and Waukesha
– Dodge Fond du Lac Dodge, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan
• 88 Municipalities
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update
Documented in SEWRPC Planning Report No Documented in SEWRPC Planning Report No. 50, A Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update for the Greater Milwaukee Watersheds Update for the Greater Milwaukee Watersheds, December 2007. h // /SEWRPC/E i http://www.sewrpc.org/SEWRPC/Environment
/RegionalWaterQualityManagement.htm
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
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Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update
• Hydraulics: Movement of water in streams, estuary, y yand Lake Michigan
• Water quality: In-stream and in-Lake pollutant concentrations
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
Regional Water Quality Management Plan Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 2020 Facilities PlanFacilities Plan
ELEMENTS OF RECEIVING WATER QUALITY MODELINGWATERSHED WATERCOURSE HARBOR / ESTUARY / LAKE
ONE DIMENSIONAL MODELTHREE DIMENSIONAL
LAND AREASPRODUCE ONE DIMENSIONAL MODEL
(LSPC/HEC-2/HEC-RAS)MODEL (ECOMSED
AND RCA)
PRODUCENPS LOADS
(LSPC or HSPF)
POINT SOURCE INPUTS (FFS and Streamline MOUSE)
•Combined Sewer OverflowsSanitary Sewer Overflows
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
•Sanitary Sewer Overflows•Industrial Discharges•Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
Regional Water Quality Management Plan Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 2020 Facilities Plan: Models UsedFacilities Plan: Models Used
Hydrology:
LSPC or HSPF to model runoff from land surface from the entire study area
Flow Forecasting System (FFS) to model MMSD wastewater flows, including base flow and dry and wet weather infiltration and inflow. For the combined sewer service area, wet weather surface runoff to the sewers is also modeled.
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
•Sanitary Sewer Overflows•Industrial Discharges•Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
Regional Water Quality Management Plan Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 2020 Facilities Facilities Plan: Models Used Plan: Models Used
Hydraulics: HEC‐2 or HEC‐RAS one‐dimensional, steady flow models of flow in streams. (Input to LSPC)
Streamline MOUSE one dimensional unsteady flow model of MMSDStreamline MOUSE one dimensional, unsteady flow model of MMSD metropolitan interceptor system, near surface collectors, and Inline Storage System (deep tunnel)
ECOMSED three‐dimensional model of hydrodynamics of estuary and Lake
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
•Sanitary Sewer Overflows•Industrial Discharges•Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
Regional Water Quality Management Plan Regional Water Quality Management Plan Update/MMSD Update/MMSD 2020 2020 Facilities Facilities Plan: Models Used Plan: Models Used
Water quality:LSPC or HSPF to model time‐varying loads and concentrations of point and nonpoint source pollutants in streamspoint and nonpoint source pollutants in streams
RCA to model time‐varying loads and concentrations of point and nonpoint source pollutants in the estuary and Lake Michigan
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
•Sanitary Sewer Overflows•Industrial Discharges•Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
Modeled Water Modeled Water Quality Quality Parameters Parameters
TSS Fecal Coliform BOD N (total N, NH3-N, Organic-N, nitrate & nitrite) Ph h (T l P) Phosphorus (Total P) Cu (copper) T t Temperature
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
LSPC/HSPF LSPC/HSPF InputsInputs
Continuous Time Series Data For: Precipitation Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration Air Temperature Solar RadiationWind Dewpoint Temperature Dewpoint Temperature
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
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NOAA SARP Climate Change StudyNOAA SARP Climate Change Study
Statistical downscaling of GCM to generate precipitation and air temperature time series consistent with 1988-1997 period in the Milwaukee area. A1B emissions scenario (medium (increase in greenhouse gases)
Potential evapotranspiration may increase due to increased air t ttemperatures
Generalized modeled flow or concentration changes under climate changeg• Average annual flow: • Fecal Coliform Bacteria: • Dissolved Oxygen: • Dissolved Oxygen: • Total Phosphorus: • Total Nitrogen: Mixed
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
• Total Suspended Solids: Mixed• Total Copper: Mixed 30
NOAA SARP Climate Change StudyNOAA SARP Climate Change Study
Account for effect of increasedground-level CO2 on transpiration by plants• Plants can obtain CO2
needed for growth with decreased transpiration
• May offset anticipated• May offset anticipatedincreased PET resulting fromhigher air temperatureshigher air temperatures
Tested using Menomonee River
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
watershed model31
Menomonee River Menomonee River Watershed CO2Watershed CO2Fertilization Sensitivity AnalysisFertilization Sensitivity Analysis
Flow or concentration changes relative to initially-modeled climate change conditions without CO2 adjustment:• Average annual flow: • Fecal Coliform Bacteria: • Di l d O E i ll h d• Dissolved Oxygen: Essentially unchanged• Total Phosphorus: • Total Nitrogen: Total Nitrogen: • Total Suspended Solids: • Total Copper: Unchangedpp gBut the general conclusions regarding the direction of change between current and estimated future climate conditions was th ( i iti ll d l d d i fl
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha
the same (e.g., an initially-modeled decrease in flow or concentration remained a decrease with CO2 adjustment) 32
Ongoing Third Party TMDL StudyOngoing Third Party TMDL Study
Milwaukee Metropolitan SewerageDi i i d l i TMDLDistrict is developing TMDLs Suite of watershed, estuary, and
nearshore Lake Michigan models nearshore Lake Michigan models developed for 2007 SEWRPC RWQMPU were adapted and used Q p TSS, phosphorus, and fecal coliform TMDLs Developed for Kinnickinnic, Menomonee,
and Milwaukee River watersheds
Serving the Counties of Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha