FX Strategy - 25 July 2016 PvB€¦ · 25/07/2016 · 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial

situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice

from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment.

1

fx strategy This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Groupfx | 25 July 2016

Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed Two key policy meetings are likely to shape currency markets during the week; the Fed on Wednesday and the BoJ on Friday. We expect

the Fed to maintain status quo with largely cautious forward guidance but highlight the possibility of a rate hike in 2016. They may avoid a more hawkish tone as this could be destabilising for markets. We expect further downside in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Though further BoJ easing in the form of additional asset purchases and further rate cuts are likely, this may already be priced-in. Hence, anything short of a significant surprise in terms of unconventional policy measures might not significantly weaken the JPY. We would use any bounce in USD/JPY to reduce exposure.

In other data this week, GDP and inflation data in US, Euro area, Japan and the UK are likely to affect sentiment on currencies.

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Summary comments Support 2 Support 1 Spot Resistance 1 Resistance 2EUR/USD Bearish Chart pattern maintains an overall bearish technical setup 1.072 1.082 1.097 1.118 1.130USD/JPY Bearish BoJ action unlikely to reverse current USD/JPY downtrend 101.4 103.88 106.3 106.31 108.00AUD/USD Bearish Downward bias confirmed following last week’s decline 0.728 0.740 0.747 0.767 0.772USD/SGD Bullish Impulsive rebound from key support suggests further upside 1.335 1.345 1.362 1.365 1.384GBP/USD Bearish Failure to break the 1.34-35 suggests downtrend intact 1.280 1.302 1.313 1.348 1.354XAU/USD Bullish Likely to find strong support around the 1300 region 1250 1300 1317 1375 1400NZD/USD Bearish Recent pullback confirms possibility of a deeper correction 0.678 0.695 0.698 0.731 0.757EUR/GBP Bullish Breach above a key resistance area suggests a deeper rally 0.800 0.824 0.836 0.861 0.877USD/CNH Neutral Possibility of consolidation amid slowing momentum indicators 6.554 6.600 6.688 6.751 6.785USD/CHF Neutral Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation 0.950 0.950 0.988 0.990 1.000USD/CAD Neutral Consolidation continues, a break of 1.315 needed to signal bulls 1.268 1.284 1.314 1.315 1.330AUD/NZD Bullish Bullish break-out suggests further gains ahead 1.035 1.050 1.071 1.078 1.100

Darker shade indicates more important technical levels

25 July 2016 | fx strategy

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2

Contents Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed 1 12 month outlook 3 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11 Interest Rate Differentials 15 FX Implied Volatility 16 Consensus forecasts 17 Disclosure Appendix 19

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction Arun Kelshiker, CFA Executive Director, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Construction Rajat Bhattacharya Investment Strategist Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist Trang Nguyen Analyst, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Solutions



12 month outlook 2-4 week outlook

Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) EUR/USD Bearish USD/JPY Bearish AUD/USD Bearish USD/SGD Bullish GBP/USD Bearish XAU/USD Bullish NZD/USD Bearish EUR/GBP Bullish USD/CNH Neutral USD/CHF Neutral USD/CAD Neutral AUD/NZD Bullish

FX trade ideas

Initiation date Pairs Position Entry price

Current price Target Stop

01/7/2016 EUR/USD Short 1.114 1.097 1.073 1.114

01/7/2016 GBP/USD Short 1.340 1.313 1.280 1.340

08/07/2016 XAU/USD Long 1320 1317 1400 1280

15/7/2016 USD/JPY Short 105.9 106.3 100.8 108.50Please see the corresponding FX trade note for more details on each trade idea

Currency 12 month

EUR

JPY

GBP

AUD

NZD

CAD

CHF

CNY

TWD

KRW

SGD

MYR

IDR

INR

THB

PHP

Bullish Neutral Bearish

Please see the latest Global Market Outlook for more details Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered



Week in Review

Weekly performance of core pairs 15 July 2016 to 22 July 2016

Weekly performance of supplementary pairs 15 July 2016 to 22 July 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Pairs Week in Review

EUR/USD EUR/USD ended down (-0.53%). The EUR extended its decline amid mixed Euro area economic data. In the US, data was a bit stronger while a rise in US 2-year yields further supported the USD. ECB maintained status quo but highlighted willingness to ease further if data weakens.

USD/JPY USD/JPY ended up (1.19%). The JPY lost ground against the USD for another week amid better investor sentiment, a stronger USD and expectations of further BoJ policy easing.

AUD/USD AUD/USD ended down (-1.53%). The AUD fell further during the week amid a pullback in commodity prices and a stronger USD overall. Australia’s 2-year government bond yields also fell amid expectations of further rate cuts by the RBA

USD/SGD USD/SGD ended up (0.79%). The USD/SGD rallied last week as the stronger USD and higher treasury yields waned sentiment towards Asian currencies.

GBP/USD GBP/USD was down (0.63%). The GBP fell against the USD as manufacturing/service/composite PMI indicators fell into contraction. Wage data was also weaker than expected though the unemployment rate decline further to 4.9%.

XAU/USD XAU/USD was down (-1.10%). The safe haven asset fell further amid improved risk appetite during the week and a rise in US and Euro area government bond yields.

NZD/USD NZD/USD was down (-1.67%). The NZD fell further after a RBNZ report signalled a possible rate cut amid low inflation and a strong currency.

-1.67%

-1.10%

-0.63%

0.79%

-1.53%

1.19%

-0.53%

-2.50% -0.50% 1.50%

NZD/USD

XAU/USD

GBP/USD

USD/SGD

AUD/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/USD

%

0.23%1.18%

0.45%

-0.41%

0.07%

-1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00%

AUD/NZD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

USD/CNH

EUR/GBP

%



EUR/USD We remain bearish amid a higher probability of a Fed rate hike and bearish technical signals.

Bearish Key technical indicators*

Technical Indicator Action

RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Sell

MACD (12,26,9) Neutral

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.130 HighResistance 1 1.118 MediumSpot 1.097 –Support 1 1.082 HighSupport 2 1.072 Medium

Key Signposts

Fed policy rate Jul 27Euro area core CPI Jul 29Euro area 2Q GDP Jul 29

* Please see Appendix for explanation on technical Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Fundamental Overview The ECB decision to maintain policy status quo largely rested on the need to see increased

Euro area economic data before deciding on the level of accommodation required. This now shifts the focus to August. Euro area inflation and GDP data this week will be key. Beyond this, an increased probability of a Fed rate hike in 2016 could also further weaken the EUR.

Technical Analysis While continuing to trade broadly sideways, last week’s price action suggests a deeper

corrective phase can develop. Following breach of the 1.104 support level, the next major support now lies at 1.082, A breach of which can open room towards Dec low at 1.0524. Near term bounces in this bearish technical setup are likely to be restricted to the 1.118 region.

Chart pattern maintains an overall bearish technical set-up


1.082

1.118

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.12

1.15

1.18

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16

EUR

/USD

EUR/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/JPY We remain bearish, not expecting a significant surprise from the BoJ policy this week.



RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Buy Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 108.00 HighResistance 1 106.31 MediumSpot 106.30 –Support 1 103.88 HighSupport 2 101.40 Medium

Key Signposts

Fed Policy rate July 27Japan CPI July 28BoJ policy rate July 29


Fundamental Overview With a clear focus on BoJ this week, the question is, can the BoJ surprise markets? With direct

financing of government debt already off the cards, we believe the BoJ has few ways to significantly increase stimulus. In any case, we do not believe incremental asset purchases or further cutting rates into negative territory can reverse the USD/JPY trend.

Technical Analysis Failure to extend the rally beyond the 106-107 region (38.2% retracement from the Jan high

and key moving averages) suggests possibility of a pullback, we believe. A breach of this region is likely to see rallies towards the 111.45 region. Pullbacks could find support in the 103-104 region, though a break of 100 is needed to signal a much deeper corrective action.

BoJ action unlikely to reverse the current USD/JPY downtrend


103.88

106.31

95

99

103

107

111

115

119

123

127

Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jun-16

USD

/JPY

USD/JPY 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



AUD/USD We remain bearish as technical’s suggest further downside.



RSI (14) Neutral


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Neutral

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 0.772 HighResistance 1 0.767 MediumSpot 0.747Support 1 0.740 MediumSupport 2 0.728 High

Key Signposts

Australia CPI inflation Jul 27


Fundamental Overview This week, the focus is on Australia CPI data. In the previous release, weaker than expected

inflation resulted in the RBA cutting interest rates. The RBA has already indicated that it has room to further ease policy should inflation remain weak. Hence, we believe, the AUD is likely to remain weak on anticipation of further easing, barring any significant upside data surprises.

Technical Analysis The impulsive reversal from this month’s high suggests a deeper pull-back may be underway.

A break-down from here could find support near the June lows around the 0.740 region. Below this the area corresponding to the 2015 2H tops and the 200DMA could limit downside. On the upside, we would need a break of 0.767 to indicate a stronger uptrend.

Downward bias confirmed following last week’s decline


0.740

0.767

0.68

0.71

0.74

0.77

0.80

0.83


AUD

/USD

AUD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



USD/SGD We remain bullish following a rebound from an important support region and stronger USD.

Bullish Key technical indicators*


RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Buy

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Neutral


Resistance 2 1.384 HighResistance 1 1.365 MediumSpot 1.362 –Support 1 1.345 MediumSupport 2 1.335 High

Key Signposts

Singapore industrial production

26 July

Fed Policy rate July 27


Fundamental Overview Although Asia-ex-Japan currencies are likely to be less impacted from events in Europe, we

believe the short-term extension of USD strength against regional currencies (especially USD/SGD) can continue. With markets pricing a low probability of a 2016 rate hike, risks are tilted towards an upside surprise (in terms of higher US rates). However, there may be limits to USD/SGD upside, as the Fed may remain fairly dovish overall.

Technical Analysis Recent uptick in the pair following a rebound from a key support region suggests a possibility

of a deeper rally. However, we believe, near-term resistance at 1.365 is likely to be key. Any breach from here could open the way to test the May high at 1.384. Pullbacks could be limited to the 1.33-34 region, where a strong basing support appears to have formed.

Impulsive rebound from key support suggests further upside


1.345

1.365

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45


USD

/SG

D

USD/SGD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



GBP/USD We remain bearish expecting a further drift lower towards recent lows.



RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Neutral

MACD (12,26,9) Buy

ADX (14) Sell

Momentum (14) Neutral Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1.354 HighResistance 1 1.348 MediumSpot 1.313 –Support 1 1.302 MediumSupport 2 1.280 High

Key Signposts

UK 2Q GDP Jul 27UK housing prices Jul 28


Fundamental Overview The GBP rebounded after the new UK PM and government were appointed quickly and the

BoE decided to maintain status quo. However, we believe this is not likely to diminish medium term risk factors significantly. Risk of capital flight amid a large current account deficit, the possibility of sharp economic slowdown and BoE easing policy and further political risks (including a second Scottish referendum) are key risks that remain in place.

Technical Analysis The pair failed to break the 1.34-1.35 region, suggesting some consolidation in the near term.

The recent impulsive decline highlights potential for a deeper correction. Focus is now on the key psychological 1.300 zone, a breach of which could result in testing of the recent lows.

Failure to break the 1.34-35 suggests downtrend intact


1.302

1.348

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jul-16

GB

P/U

SD

GBP/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



XAU/USD We remain bullish, viewing the recent correction as an opportunity to renew long exposure.

Bullish Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Sell


MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Buy

Momentum (14) Sell Key Levels Level Importance

Resistance 2 1400 HighResistance 1 1375 MediumSpot 1317 –Support 1 1300 MediumSupport 2 1250 High

Key Signposts

Fed policy rate Jul 27BoJ Policy rate Jul 29


Fundamental Overview Gold is likely to remain in demand following renewed political uncertainty in Europe, reduced

risk appetite and a scaling back of interest rate expectations across major regions. Hence, we believe, any pullback is likely to be bought into. However, eventual Fed rate hike expectations could ultimately put a cap on gold prices.

Technical Analysis The recent pullback is likely to find support around the 1,300-1,320 region (61.8% retracement

of the recent rally). A rebound from here would indicate the uptrend remains intact and is first likely to test the recent high at 1,375 and then the psychological 1,400 level. On the downside, a break of 1,300 could to lead to the 1,250 support region.

Likely to find strong support around the 1300 region


1,300

1,375

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


XAU

/USD

XAU/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



NZD/USD We remain bearish amid a bearish technical setup and increasing possibility of an RBNZ rate cut.

Bearish Key technical indicators and forecast*


RSI (14) Neutral

Oscillator (5,10) Neutral

MACD (12,26,9) Sell

ADX (14) Buy


Resistance 2 0.757 MediumResistance 1 0.731 HighSpot 0.698 –Support 1 0.695 MediumSupport 2 0.673 Medium

Key Signposts

No Major data releases xxx


Fundamental Overview The NZD has remained resilient so far amid increased demand for higher yielding AAA rated

assets and a generally stable China outlook. However, the probability of another RBNZ rate cut also remains high, which could limit any NZD rally. Recent lower than expected inflation data has significantly increased this probability. Focus now, however, is clearly on the 11 August policy meeting with rising expectations of additional policy easing.

Technical Analysis The recent bearish reversal from a strong resistance region suggests a deeper pullback might

be underway. The focus is now on the 0.695 level (near 100DMA), a breach of which will shift the focus to the 0.68-0.67 region. Technical indicators have also turned firmly bearish.

Recent pullback confirms possibility of a deeper correction


0.695

0.731

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80


NZD

/USD

NZD/USD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS

Breach above a key resistance area suggests a deeper rally View

Bullish

The pair has undergone a recent overbought corrective phase, which is likely to find support at the 0.824 region.

We expect increased political and economic risks in the UK to support further gains in the EUR/GBP pair.

Possibility of consolidation amid slowing momentum indicators View

Neutral

We remain neutral USD/CNH. Technically, as slowing momentum indicators suggest bulls might be getting exhausted.

However, policymaker preference for a weaker CNY might ultimately limit any pull-back.


0.824

0.861

0.680.700.720.740.760.780.800.820.840.860.880.90


EUR

GB

P

EUR/GBP 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

6.600

6.751

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8


USD

/CN

H

USD/CNH 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Consolidation to continue, SNB to limit significant CHF appreciation View

Neutral

We expect continued sideways movements around a broad 0.95-1.00 range.

The soft peg to the EUR and SNB intervention to limit currency strength is likely to persist.

Consolidation continues, a break of 1.315 needed to signal bulls View

Neutral

Likely to consolidate near term, as oil prices fall into consolidation

Tight sideways consolidation continues, break above 1.315 needed as a first sign of a leg up.


0.950

0.990

0.89

0.92

0.95

0.98

1.01

1.04


USD

/CH

F

USD/CHF 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA

1.284

1.315

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50


USD

/CAD

USD/CAD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS (cont’d)

Bullish break-out suggests further gains ahead View

Bullish

We remain bullish expecting the recent impulsive reversal to further develop. Strong resistance likely at 1.078

Increased probability of further RBNZ rate cuts following the weaker New Zealand inflation numbers could induce further upside.


1.050

1.078

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15


AUD

/NZD

AUD/NZD 50DMA 100DMA 200DMA



Interest Rate Differentials

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

-1.50

-1.30

-1.10

-0.90

-0.70

-0.50

-0.30

-0.10

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16EU

R/U

SD

%

EUR-USD 2 year interest rate differentialEUR/USD (RHS)

85

95

105

115

125

135

0.100.250.400.550.700.851.001.151.301.45

Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16

USD

/JPY

%

USD-JPY 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/JPY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


AU

D/U

SD

%

AUD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)AUD/USD (RHS)

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58

1.68

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16

GB

P/U

SD

%

GBP-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)GBP/USD (RHS)

0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0


NZD

/USD

%

NZD-USD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)NZD/USD (RHS)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0


USD

/CA

D

%

USD-CAD 2 year interest rate differntial (RHS)USD/CAD (RHS)



FX Implied Volatility

EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD

GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD


3.5

5.5

7.5

9.5

11.5

13.5

15.5


%

EUR 1M implied vol

0

5

10

15

20


%

JPY 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

AUD 1M implied vol

4

9

14

19

24

29

34


%

GBP 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


%

NZD 1M implied vol

4

6

8

10

12

14


%

CAD 1M implied vol



Consensus forecasts

Consensus Forecasts Spot Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017

EUR/USD 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.08 1.08

USD/JPY 106.30 103.00 105.00 106.00 107.00

AUD/USD 0.75 0.72 0.71 0.72 0.71

NZD/USD 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66

USD/SGD 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.39 1.40

GBP/USD 1.31 1.28 1.27 1.28 1.29

USD/CAD 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31

USD/CHF 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02




TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX

RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.

Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.

MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.

ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.

Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.


19

Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within Standard Chartered Bank, (“SCB”) particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. United Kingdom: Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is an authorised financial services provider (licence number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.


20

SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents. SCB, and/or a connected company, may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities, currencies or financial instruments referred to on this document or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2016. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2016.

THIS IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AND HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED BY A RESEARCH UNIT.

FX Strategy - 25 July 2016 PvB€¦ · 25/07/2016 · 2-4 week outlook 3 FX trade ideas 3 Week in Review 4 EUR/USD 5 USD/JPY 6 AUD/USD 7 USD/SGD 8 GBP/USD 9 XAU/USD 10 NZD/USD 11

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