This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment. 1 fx strategy fx | 12 October 2015 The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function USD may recover some losses The USD fell against most major peers last week as prospects of a delay in Fed rate hikes, lacklustre US data and a rally in Emerging Markets weighed-in. The USD is now at key technical levels against a number of major pairs. A rebound in the USD from here may imply near-term weakness may have ended. In the week ahead, currency markets are likely to focus on US inflation and retail sales data. For SGD, the monetary policy statement is likely to be crucial for the near term outlook. EUR/USD We remain neutral on EUR/USD as we expect the pair to continue consolidating. USD/JPY We remain bullish on USD/JPY as a cluster of support lines just below current levels is likely to aid a recovery. AUD/USD We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair as we do not expect the past week’s rebound to sustain. USD/SGD We remain bullish on USD/SGD as the longer-term uptrend appears intact. GBP/USD We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as short-term trend signals are mixed. XAU/USD We turn bearish on XAU/USD (from neutral earlier) as the pair is approaching key trend-line resistance. Pairs Outlook (2-4 wk) Secondary Sup Primary Sup Spot Primary Res Secondary Res EUR/USD Neutral 1.060 1.110 1.137 1.140 1.180 USD/JPY Bullish 117.00 118.50 120.16 122.00 124.50 AUD/USD Bearish 0.680 0.700 0.733 0.740 0.755 USD/SGD Bullish 1.374 1.387 1.400 1.410 1.435 GBP/USD Neutral 1.500 1.515 1.533 1.550 1.580 XAU/USD Bearish 1080 1100 1158 1170 1200 USD/CNH* Neutral 6.280 6.302 6.327 6.440 6.500 USD/ZAR* Neutral 12.600 13.000 13.37 14.000 15.000 NZD/USD* Bearish 0.620 0.648 0.670 0.682 0.700 USD/CHF* Neutral 0.935 0.950 0.961 0.990 1.010 USD/SEK* Neutral 7.800 8.055 8.191 8.860 8.880 USD/CAD* Neutral 1.265 1.282 1.292 1.320 1.340 *SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs Contents USD may recover some losses 1 EUR/USD 2 USD/JPY 3 AUD/USD 4 USD/SGD 5 GBP/USD 6 XAU/USD (Gold) 7 SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS 8 Interest Rate Differentials 10 FX Implied Volatility 10 Disclosure Appendix 12 Weekly performance of pairs 2 October 2015 to 9 October 2015 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist Clive McDonnell Head, Equity Investment Strategy Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation Arun Kelshiker, CFA Exec. Director, Asset Allocation Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Portfolio Solutions Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist 1.57 0.90 -2.67 4.13 0.30 1.27 -3.50 -2.50 -1.50 -0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 XAU/USD GBP/USD USD/SGD AUD/USD USD/JPY EUR/USD %
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Fx Strat 12 10 2015 PvB - Standard Chartered · 2015-10-16 · AUD/USD likely to resume its structural downtrend Technical Analysis Chart: AUD/USD (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, Standard
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This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. This document is provided for general circulation and information purposes only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or financial situation of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared as investment advice for such person(s). ‘Person’ includes a corporation, co-operative society, trade union, sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership and any other business entity. Prospective investors should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment, taking into
account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment.
1
fx strategyfx | 12 October 2015
The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function
USD may recover some losses
The USD fell against most major peers last week as prospects of a delay in Fed rate hikes, lacklustre US data and a rally in Emerging Markets weighed-in. The USD is now at key technical levels against a number of major pairs. A rebound in the USD from here may imply near-term weakness may have ended.
In the week ahead, currency markets are likely to focus on US inflation and retail sales data. For SGD, the monetary policy statement is likely to be crucial for the near term outlook.
EUR/USD
We remain neutral on EUR/USD as we expect the pair to continue consolidating.
USD/JPY
We remain bullish on USD/JPY as a cluster of support lines just below current levels is likely to aid a recovery.
AUD/USD
We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair as we do not expect the past week’s rebound to sustain.
USD/SGD
We remain bullish on USD/SGD as the longer-term uptrend appears intact.
GBP/USD
We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as short-term trend signals are mixed.
XAU/USD
We turn bearish on XAU/USD (from neutral earlier) as the pair is approaching key trend-line resistance.
*SUPPLEMENTARY PAIRS - Going forward, we will maintain the EUR, JPY, AUD, SGD, GBP and XAU outlook while adding just key technical levels for the supplementary pairs
Arun Kelshiker, CFA Exec. Director, Asset Allocation
Audrey Goh, CFA Director, Portfolio Solutions
Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist
Tariq Ali, CFA Investment Strategist
Abhilash Narayan Investment Strategist
1.57
0.90
-2.67
4.13
0.30
1.27
-3.50 -2.50 -1.50 -0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50
XAU/USD
GBP/USD
USD/SGD
AUD/USD
USD/JPY
EUR/USD
%
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 2
EUR/USD
We remain neutral on EUR/USD as we expect the pair to continue consolidating.
Performance
EUR/USD ended up (1.27%) over the previous week. PMIs show September business growth was slower than expected and fewer jobs were created. Investor sentiment slid to a nine-month low in October. Retail sales were flat in August.
In the US, minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting pointed to concerns of a slowing global economy. Jobless claims fell to a near 42-week low although the trade deficit widened as exports sagged. ISM non-manufacturing was a little softer than forecast, while the services sector ebbed in September.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral.
We remain neutral on EUR/USD. Since March, the pair has been consolidating in a narrow sideways channel band, with a slight upward bias. This consolidation is expected to continue and may stretch a little higher if it takes out the resistance at 1.140. Meanwhile, any short squeeze above 1.140 is likely to stay capped within 1.180, in our view. In the interim, we prefer to remain on the sidelines and await more convincing directional trends.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves above 1.140 or below 1.110.
Key Signposts
Euro area – Survey expectations (13 October), industrial production (14 October), new car registrations, trade balance and CPI (16 October).
US – NIFB small business optimism (13 October), retail sales, PPI and business inventories (14 October), CPI, Philadelphia Fed business outlook and the Empire State manufacturing survey (15 October), industrial production and the University of Michigan survey (16 October).
EUR/USD seems to still be in a consolidation phase
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.1208 1.1152 1.1145
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 3
USD/JPY
We remain bullish on USD/JPY as a cluster of support lines just below current levels is likely to aid a recovery.
Performance
USD/JPY ended up (0.30%) over the previous week. Wage growth slowed in August and summer bonuses stood lower than the past year, boding ill for consumer spending. The services sector expanded much slower in September than the previous month as new businesses slackened. The BoJ left rates unchanged at last week’s monetary policy meeting, but maintained that further easing was likely if demand gets sluggish.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are neutral to bullish.
We remain bullish on USD/JPY. The pair appears to have stabilised around current levels after the initial sharp fall from the high of 125. The cluster of supports that lie below the 118.0 mark, along with the positive divergence forming on the daily momentum technical indicator, suggests there is a good chance of a recovery.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves below 118.5.
Key Signposts
Bank lending, consumer confidence and machine tool orders (13 October), PPI and money supply (14 October), industrial production, capacity utilisation and the Reuters tankan index (15 October).
USD/JPY likely to resume its uptrend once consolidation ends
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma121.26 122.39 120.89
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 4
AUD/USD
We remain bearish on the AUD/USD pair as we do not expect the past week’s rebound to sustain.
Performance
AUD/USD ended up (4.13%) over the previous week. The central bank held rates steady for a fifth month. New vehicle sales rose in September. Trade balance deteriorated more than expected in August. Home loans rebounded in August but by less than expected.
In China, there were no key economic releases.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are bearish to neutral.
We remain bearish on AUD/USD (from neutral earlier). The pair recovered further last week, mainly led by a short squeeze. The pair is testing the upper band of the intermediate upward sloping channel. Hence, we believe the recent rebound offers an opportunity to sell, given our negative long term view.
We would review our outlook if the pair rebounds above 0.74.
Key Signposts
Australia – NAB business confidence (13 October), consumer confidence (14 October), consumer inflation expectations, employment change and the unemployment rate (15 October).
China – Trade balance, exports and imports (13 October), CPI and PPI (14 October).
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma0.7171 0.7369 0.7605
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 5
USD/SGD
We remain bullish on USD/SGD as the longer-term uptrend appears intact.
Performance
USD/SGD ended down (-2.67%) over the previous week. Business optimism plunged to near contraction levels this quarter. Forex reserves rose slightly in September from the previous month.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are divergent.
However, we remain bullish on USD/SGD. The pair has seen a sharp pullback from its high of 1.430 and is close to the previous swing lows of 1.390. We remain bullish over a slightly longer-term horizon and, hence, believe the recent correction offers an opportunity to go long. Momentum indicators also suggest the pair is moving into oversold territory and is likely to rebound.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves below 1.387.
Key Signposts
GDP and MAS Statement of Monetary Policy (14 October), retail sales (15 October), non-oil exports (16 October).
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.4088 1.3811 1.3662
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 6
GBP/USD
We remain neutral on the GBP/USD pair as short-term trend signals are mixed.
Performance
GBP/USD ended up (0.90%) over the previous week. The services PMI dropped to its lowest level in 2.5 years. House prices fell 0.9% in September from the previous month. Manufacturing output picked up in August after falling sharply in July. The BoE’s monetary policy committee decided to leave rates unchanged and indicated no hurry to hike rates.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are divergent.
We remain neutral on GBP/USD. The short-term technical setup for the pair has turned slightly negative after it slipped below 1.520. However, unless the pair decisively breaches 1.550 on the upside, or falls back below 1.515, we expect the pair to trade in a tight range.
We would review our outlook if the pair falls below 1.515 or moves above 1.550.
Key Signposts
CPI, PPI, BoE credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys (13 October), average earnings, unemployment rate and employment change (14 October).
* Please see Appendix on Pg 11 for explanation on technical
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
50 dma 100 dma 200 dma1.5418 1.5486 1.5322
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 7
XAU/USD (Gold)
We turn bearish on XAU/USD (from neutral earlier) as the pair is approaching key trend-line resistance.
Performance
XAU/USD ended up (1.57%) over the previous week. Gold prices were firm after the Fed meeting minutes were viewed as dovish. Subdued economic data in the US saw the US dollar drift lower.
Technical Analysis
Major technical indicators, on balance, are divergent.
We turn bearish on the XAU/USD pair (from neutral earlier). Gold continued to rebound higher last week, re-tracing its previous fall. The confluence of the 200DMA (1,177) line and the resistance trend line extending across 1,170 is likely to halt the rally, in our view. Hence, we turn bearish given the rebound is approaching the upper end of this band.
We would review our outlook if the pair moves above 1,170.
Key Signposts
Inflation data both in the US and Euro area is likely to impact sentiment towards gold this week.
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 10
Interest Rate Differentials FX Implied Volatility
Measures the yield of holding the foreign currency relative to the base currency
An appropriate indicator used to gauge future expectations of price movements based on FX options market pricing
EUR/USD EUR/USD
USD/JPY USD/JPY
AUD/USD AUD/USD
USD/SGD USD/SGD
GBP/USD GBP/USD
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15
EU
R/U
SD
%
Difference between EUR and USD 2 yr swap EUR/USD (RHS)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
2W Implied Volatility
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15
US
D/J
PY
%
Difference between USD and JPY 2 yr swap USD/JPY (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
2W Implied Volatility
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15
AU
D/U
SD
%
Difference between AUD and USD 2 yr swap AUD/USD (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
2W Implied Volatility
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15
US
D/S
GD
%
Difference between USD and SGD 2 yr swap USD/SGD (RHS)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
2W Implied Volatility
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
-0.2
0.3
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
Feb-10 Jul-11 Dec-12 May-14 Oct-15
GB
P/U
SD
%
Difference between GBP and USD 2 yr swap GBP/USD (RHS)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
2W Implied Volatility
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. 11
TECHNICAL INDICATORS – EXPLANATORY APPENDIX
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI indicators can be used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. An RSI above 70 can indicate a currency pair is overbought while an RSI below 30 can indicate the pair is oversold.
Stochastic Oscillator – The Stochastic Oscillator compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over a given time period. The security or index is generally considered oversold when the Oscillator falls to 20%, while a reading of 80% is considered overbought.
MACD (The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – This indicator shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A bearish signal is provided when the main moving average line drops below the second moving average line, and vice versa.
ADX (Average Directional Index) – This indicator quantifies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. An index rising above zero provides a bullish signal while an index falling below zero provides a bearish signal.
Momentum Indicator – The momentum of a security is the ratio of today's price compared to the price at a given point in the past. If the security's price is higher today, the momentum indicator will be considered strong. If the security's price is lower today, the momentum Indicator will be weak.
12 October 2015 | fx strategy
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Disclosure Appendix This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function.
Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority.
In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC.
Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities.
This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation, solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons.
Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be).
This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations.
SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents.
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