Futurology

Futurology

A New Field of Research

It is better to have a bad map than to have no map at all.

• The future contains an element of uncertainty, but we try to prepare for the future and to deal with its uncertainties. We also try to control the future, not only to “prepare” for it by adapting to what we think is coming, but to make things happen that we want to happen.

• Without forecasting, there is no freedom of decision. Humans have the ability to foresee alternative futures before it is too late to control them. Thus they have the ability to shape their future.

History

• Thinking about the future is a universal phenomenon that can be traced back to the dawn of human prehistory.

• Divination: discovering the future by eliciting a divine response (the will of the gods).

• Wide range of techniques: Examination of animal organs, observing the patterns a fire makes as it burns, dream interpretation, etc.

• Witches, sorcerers, shamans were consulted to discover and control the future.

The Modern Approach• The modern approach to the study of the future also tries

to discover and control the future, but unlike divination, it is not based on beliefs in the supernatural, magic, mystification of methods, superstition, or the secret powers of particular individuals or groups.

• Futures studies is part of modern humanism, both philosophical and scientific. It is secular. Futurists aim to demistify the future, to make their methods explicit, to be systematic and rational, to base their results on the empirical observation of reality and open discussion, as well as creativity and intuition.

Recent Origins of Futures Studies• Futuristic novels of Jules Verne, 1860s and 1870s.• H.G. Wells’s article “Anticipations of the Reaction of Mechanical and Scientific

Progress upon Human Life and Thought” 1901.• Sociologist William F. Ogburn’s work on Social Trends in the 1930s.• Nathan Israeli’s work on the social psychology of the future (1930s).• 1960s: Futurism became a social movement.• Bertrand de Jouvenel’s The Art of Conjecture (1964).• RAND (1945): A think tank for long-range forecasting and futures thinking. Also a

school for futurists.• Herman Kahn’s On Thermonuclear War (1960).• Alvin Toffler,Future Shock (1970).• Ted J. Gordon and Olaf Helmer’s work on Future Scientific and Technological

Breakthroughs (RAND) 1960s.• Harold D. Lasswell’s idea of the coming garrison state.

Futures Studies Today

• Today, futures studies has most of the characteristics of a separate field of inquiry. It has full-time professionals,networks of communication and formal professional associations, university futures courses and educational programs, conferences and meetings, hundreds of publications annually, shared purposes, a set of identifiable futurist methods, underlying assumptions, and shared exemplars that stand within a growing body of knowledge.

The Purposes of Futurists• The purposes of futures studies are to discover or invent,

examine and evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.

• Futurists wish to know:• What can or could be (the possible)• What is likely to be (the probable)• What ought to be (the preferable)• Futurists are usually unhappy with the present state of the

world and want to make the world a better place. They try to create the intellectual tools and knowledge that will allow people to take actions to achieve their desirable goals.

How to be a Futurist• Always think prospectively – consider the future

consequences of present actions and form an image of the future.

• Have a working knowledge of past and present developments. • Watch the emerging and existing trends. Always scan for the

first signs of a future trend (such as technological innovations, changes in lifestyles, demographic changes)

• Use a set of goals and values to determine whether the constructed future is desirable.

• Invent or select possible courses of action aimed at creating the most desirable future.

Methods of Futures Studies

Environmental scanning, Delphi method, futures wheel, futures polygon, trend impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems perspectives, decision modeling, statistical modeling, scenario analysis, simulation and games, causal layered analysis.

Scenario Analysis

The Method and Some Examples

Scenario Analysis

• Scenarios are alternative futures. They are neither predictions nor forecasts. Rather, each scenario is one alternative image of how the future might unfold.

• Other methods yield one image of the future while scenario analysis provides a wide range of possible futures.

Scenario Analysis

• In social systems information on variables is incomplete so they can only be appreciated by intuition and are best communicated by images and stories.

• Quantification brings a false sense of precision into social phenomena. As many qualitative factors cannot be quantified, scenario analysis makes little use of mathematics.

Scenario Analysis

• Every scenario analysis exercise begins with an analysis of the current situation (the empirical present). The empirical present provides the foundation upon which the potential futures are constructed, thereby grounding the analysis in reality.

• However, linear extrapolations of current trends are prone to error because catalytic events may throw these trends drastically off course.

Scenario Analysis

• The point of scenario analysis is not to find a way of justifying existing beliefs about the future. It should challenge those beliefs, reveal previously ignored possibilities.

• Scenario exercises enhance our learning and understanding of social phenomena. They illuminate the interrelatedness of different realms of life and the underlying causes of events.

Scenario Analysis

• There is no “right scenario” but plausible futures that could unfold. The right answer cannot be found with mathematical calculations.

• Too many scenarios would be too similar to each other: mere variations of the same theme.

• 4-5 scenarios are enough, and their differences must really be significant.

Scenario Analysis

• Avoid making “most likely” plots. We learn more from surprising plots.

• Do not assign probabilities to scenarios. Do not categorize them as either the most or the least likely.

• Keep your mind open to all possibilities, not only the desirable or frightening ones. Pure white or pure black images of the future are not realistic, usually there are various shades of grey.

Scenario Analysis

• Avoid building 3 scenarios: the best, the worst and the middle. Usually the middle of the road is selected as the most likely, which is a mistake.

• Best and worst case scenarios are usually ideal extremes that are not plausible.

How to Build Scenarios: The Steps

1. Identify the issue.2. Identify the drivers of change in 5 areas (STEEP)

that may shape the future.3. Select 2 important and uncertain drivers and build

a matrix. Build 4 scenarios from its quadrants.4. Throw in a wild card: Build a surprise scenario.5. Devise a strategy for the future: What must be

done to prevent the negative outcome or to reach the positive outcome?

1. Identify the Issue

Formulate a question about the future (20 years):*Will there be less or more wars in the future?*Will the world population decrease or increase in

the future?*Will women’s status improve in the future?*Will there be greater democracy or authoritarianism

in the future?*Will the gap between rich and poor countries

increase in the future?

2.Identify the Drivers of Change that May Influence the Issue

• Identify the primary driving forces at work in the present in 5 areas (STEEP):

• Social• Technological• Economic• Environmental• Political

Examples of Drivers

• Social: Culture, education, family, marriage and divorce rates, demographic composition, immigration.

• Technological: ICT, electronics, genetics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, weapons, robotics.

• Economic: Income, growth, trade, investment, polarization, impoverishment, globalization.

• Environmental: Pollution, global warming, food shortages, depletion of resources, deforestation.

• Political: Types of regime, elections, leaders, instability, failed states, NGOs, .

3. Select 2 important and uncertain drivers

• Among the drivers, some are predetermined and inevitable, leave them out. e.g. Number of elderly people 20 years later.

• Select the drivers that are uncertain and beyond our control.

• Then, from among the uncertain ones, select the most important 2 drivers: Which 2 forces are most likely to define the future of the issue?

Build a Matrix with the Two Drivers

Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Scenario 1 Scenario 4

The Matrix

• The matrix simplifies all uncertainties into 2 axes, giving us four quadrants. Each quadrant is a plausible future.

High I Low -----------------I----------------High I Low

Build the Scenarios

• Using present tense, describe in headlines what happens in each quadrant of the matrix. Flesh out the scenarios from “High x, low y” etc., into full stories with a beginning, a middle, and an end.

• When fleshing out the scenarios, use systems thinking: Describe the way parts of the system interact. What lies under events: Values, interests, structures?

Build the Scenarios

• Don’t make a static description of the future. Describe how things got from the present to that scenario. What events might be necessary to make the end point of the scenario possible?

• In the scenarios, use the drivers previously eliminated from the matrix (STEEP). Try to add forces from each area into your story.

• Add characters and personalities, such as charismatic leaders, interest groups, NGOs, MNCs. Consider their motivations and actions.

Build the Scenarios

• To write good scenarios, watch current trends. Scan your environment for signs of new trends that might grow in the future.

• Only describing the changes is not enough. Also mention the response to the change (reaction, protest, resistance, revolution, etc.)

• Invent catchy names for the scenarios. Their names should be striking to quickly convey the changes :e.g. “Hell” , “Back to the Stone Age”, “Robot Revolution”, “Space Colonies.”

Plot Lines for Scenarios

• Crisis and response (environmental, energy)• Winners and losers (Asia and Europe)• Good news/bad news (include both)• Evolutionary change (Technological developments

accumulate and spur more change)• Rise and decline of powers (China and USA)• Revolutionary change: Abrupt change (a

breakthrough invention)

Plot Lines for Scenarios

• Tectonic change: Structural alteration (breaking up of a state, new constitution)

• Cycles: Economic boom and recession.• Infinite possibility: Continued economic growth.• The Lone Ranger: One actor against the establishment• Generations: New groups with different values and

expectations• Perpetual transition: Continuous change. Ever-evolving

system.

4. Throw in A Wild Card: Build a Surprise Scenario

• In addition to a matrix of four logically contrasted scenarios, a fifth “wild card” scenario is created with a dramatic surprise that doesn’t fit into the matrix.

• Wild cards are surprise events that are irrelevant to the drivers and scenarios. They can completely change the outcome of the issue.

• Surprise events may happen out of the blue, unrelated to other developments.

Examples of Wild Cards

• Natural disasters: earthquake, flood, hurricane.• Assassinations of important figures and leaders.• Unintended consequences of technologies:

Robots take over.• Disease: Black Death in Europe.• Political: Hitler’s rise, Russian revolution of 1917,

Soviet collapse 1991.

Examples of Wild Cards

• Techno-scientific discoveries and inventions: A new source of energy (cold fusion, hydrogen).

• Comet collision with earth• Sudden climate change: Ice Age.• Faster global warming: Crop failure, coastal

flooding.• Economic depression: Global crisis• Terrorists acquire nuclear weapons.

5. Devise a Strategy for the Future

• What must be done to avoid an undesirable future? Who can work for this end: individuals, NGOs, IGOs, or governments?

• What can be done to shape a desired future?• This part of the analysis is the policy part. It is

a valuable contribution of futures studies to global well-being in terms of foresight and concrete suggestions.

Example of Scenario Analysis: Prospects for Peace in 2030

WILL THERE BE MORE OR LESS WARS BY 2030?Drivers:Arms tradeInequality of wealth between statesResource scarcitiesEffrective UN PeacekeepingProliferation of WMDsLevels of ethnic tension/conflictPopulation growthImmigration from South to NorthNumber of alliances/blocs

Select Two Drivers

1. Arms trade: This term is used to denote the global volume of arms sales. It is a significant driver because arms races never stop and they escalate the level of hostility and tension to actual war-fighting at some point.

2. Resource scarcities: This refers to dwindling amounts of resources such as oil, water, minerals, forests,etc. Throughout history humans have fought over scarce resources and this may be a cause for war in the near future as well.

Build a matrix

High arms trade, low resource scarcity

High arms trade, high resource scarcity

Low arms trade, low resource scarcity

Low arms trade, high resource scarcity

Scenario 1: WORLD PEACE(Low arms trade, low resource scarcity)

• After suffering nuclear terrorist attacks in 2020s, Western powers decide to restrict the transfer of arms technology and arms trade. Arms control agreements curb not only arms trade but also the spending on arms development and research. Financial resources are channeled into projects for environmental protection and resource conservation. New technologies are invented to overcome resource scarcities such as food, water and energy. Genetic modification improves agricultural efficiency. New water purification techniques increase the amount of water available from oceans. Solar energy is now used widely and freely around the world. An abundance of resources enables humman communities to live in peace.

Scenario 2: DETERRENCE AND STABILITY(High arms trade, low resource scarcity)

• States have accumulated stockpiles of conventional and nuclear arms but these are only used for “cold war” purposes rather than a direct military confrontation. States make use of their military power to preserve the status quo and to deter any potential challengers. States do not have any compelling motives to fight wars such as competing for dwindling resources. New technologies satisfy their needs for a large variety of resources.

Scenario 3: WORLD WAR III(High arms trade, high resource scarcity)

• China’s economic growth enables it to spend more on arms and also to arm its allies, Russia and India. Around 2025, a large coalition of forces emerges around China to challenge the US leadership, including the anti-Western Moslem states. Growing populations, especially China’s 1.5 billion people, and India’s 1.8 billion people have growing demands for energy sources. In 2030, the great powers of the world enter a total war over the increasingly scarce energy sources in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. The war ends with the nuclear destruction and defeat of the USA and EU.

Scenario 4: CHRONIC CHAOS(Low arms trade, high resource scarcity)

• During 2010s and 2020s environmental deterioration continues at a fast pace and resources diminish parallel to the high rates of production and consumption. Globalization of liberal capitalism sharpens the inequalities between the rich and the poor everywhere. International terrorism strikes frequently at the cities of developed countries. There is pervasive unrest, civil wars, and a high degree of violent crime in the underdeveloped countries. The anger and frustration of deprived masses is revealed by chronic conventional warfare in Africa and Asia. The instability of these regions precludes major arms transfers but nevertheless people use low profile, conventional fighting methods.

The Wild Card Scenario: Global Nuclear Deterrence

• A new technological breakthrough in arms enables all actors, state and nonstate, to have easy access to nuclear weapons of mass destruction. This equilibrium in nuclear power starts a period of stability, that is, a cold war in which no one dares to start a war for fear of retaliation. Until the balance is disrupted by a further innovation…

Conclusion: Strategy Suggestions

• There should be an institution to control arms trade in the world. Limits and quotas should be placed on arms acquisitions by states. Illegal arms sales or trafficking should be prevented by strict police control.

• Sustainable development policies should be adopted by governments to prevent resource scarcities.

Exercise

• Democratization of the world• (Drivers of change: Inequality, economic

development, education, globalization, foreign intervention, rise of NGOs)

• Wild cards: revolution, coups, civil wars.

Exercises

Develop scenarios around the following issues:• The gap between rich and poor people• Drivers of change: Social security programs

(welfare), foreign aid, education, job creation, population control, land reform, tax reform, strength of trade unions.

• Wild card: Disease kills millions, poverty is eradicated.

Exercise

• Women’s status• Drivers: education, women’s employment,

legislative reforms, family planning, number of women in government, number of women’s rights organizations, credits and loans to women, international agreements protecting women.

• Wild card: Fundamentalist takeover.

Exercise

• Future of the environment• Drivers: Consumption of resources,

industrialization, pollution, number of international agreements for environmental protection, activities of NGOs, population growth.

• Wild card: Nanotechnology can produce unlimited amounts of resources and prevents pollution.