Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios
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Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios
Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity
• Roles and times• Emergent practices
and patterns
Who am I?
• NITLE senior fellow• Social media
mainline• Future
studies
Today’s plan
1.Gamified Reality
2.The Long Great Recession
3.Past Peak Oil4.WorldBoard
Caveats are mandatory
• Each scenario can be intertwingled
• Narrative and/or complexity
• Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror
I: Gamified Reality
Gaming extends throughout everyday life:
…literally…practically…conceptually
Very explicitly about behavior modification
Imperial gamification
Large simulations are normal
(political and
mundane)
II: The Long Great Recession
Federal funding continues
Turning Japan in the 1990s
Stagnation and decline
Decay sets in, grows
Chronic popular
discontent
Media battles
III: Past Peak Oil
“’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”
Nightmare scenario
It gets worse:• No full
replacements• Population and
demand grow• Costs keep
growing
Oil is used for:• Transportation• Food fertilizer• Medicines• Plastics
Some checks
• New Saudi Arabias• Miracle science• Global recession• Climate change
disasters
Shift to any alternatives
Hoarding and panics
Security state intensifies
Walled gardens proliferate
Military adventures attract
Infrastructure breaks down
IV: WorldBoard
World of sensor nets
Back to 2010
Back to 2010
NITLEhttp://nitle.org
Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander