Futures Volume 3 Issue 3 1971 [Doi 10.1016%2F0016-3287%2871%2990023-1] I.F. Clarke -- The Pattern of Prediction- Forecasting- Facts and Fallibilities

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Figure 1. The Flying City: one of the earliest fantasies that sprang from the first balloon ascents was the notion of

vast balloons that would transport thousands through the skies

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Figure 2. The coal-burning car: another source of amused prophecy was the

development of the early steam engines. It seemed a short step in 1831-from the

steam engine to the steam-car.

Figure 3. As the inventions overtook the prophecies forecasts in the 1920s

looked ahead to ocean liners and vast airships on the trans-Atlantic routes.

FUTURES September WH

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The Pattern of Prediction 305

emergence of technological forecasting

in the 1960s. For example, the US

Presidents Materials Policy Commis-

sion produced in 1952 a five-volume

survey, Resources for Freedom, which

examined the prospects of vital com-

modities, energy sources and major

technologies. The analysts and the

pattern-recognisers of the world had

begun to unite. In 1955 the British

Government received from the Lord

President of the Council the Pro-

gramme of nuclear power; and in that

same year the United Nations organised

an international conference in Geneva

on

The peaceful uses of atomic

energy.

At all times the achievements and

the opportunities of modern technology

have decided the pace of development;

and on many occasions the social con-

sequences of human inventiveness have

thrown up problems that must find

right answers in the future. In the un-

paralleled outpouring of programmes

and propositions there were certain

clearly discernible factors at work. After

1945 governments throughout the world

had to decide on the most effective

means of restoring national econo-

mies. And here political considerations

often affected decisions, since the end-

ing of vast colonial empires, when

added to the Communist victory in

China,

changed

strategic balances

throughout the world. But in all places

the most pervasive and powerful in-

fluence has been the increasing power

of governments to control national

and international economies; and that

power derives directly from the growth

in communications and transportation.

During the 50s the main influence

remained with the governmental com-

mittees,

especially those working on

long-term economic and military plans.

By the early 6Os, however, it had

become apparent that the nations do

not live by the plan alone; and one of

the first signs of a widening in the range

of enquiry was the conference organised

by CIBA in 1963 on Man and his

Future. The institutes and the founda-

tions followed: in Austria Robert

Jungk established the Institute fur

Zukunftsfragen; in Paris Bertrand de

Jouvenel started the Futuribles research

association; in the United Kingdom the

Social Research Council set up the

Committee on the next Thirty Years;

and the American Academy of Arts

and Science has created the Commis-

sion on the Year 2000 in the USA.

Out of the new institutes and the world

conferences has come a second wave of

publications, more specialist and often

more practical than the predictions of

the immediate post-war period. From

the Hudson Institute has come a classic

in the new field-Kahn and Wiener,

The Tear 2000; from the Institut fur

Zukunftsfragen has come a series of

forecasts under the general title of

Modelle fiir eine neue Welt; and presum-

ably the proceedings of the Science

Policy Foundation symposium (London,

April 197 1) will soon appear in print.

At present technological forecasting

looks rather like a political party in its

first year of office : expectations are high,

but the achievements are still to come.

Will they ever come ? In the areas where

quantitative techniques can operate

successfully, the forecasts will un-

doubtedly become more and more

accurate. But how do the computers

begin to assess the impact of ideas on a

society? In the last 100 years the physi-

cal sciences and the technologies have

reached their predicted goals: sub-

marines, flying

machines,

atomic

energy, space rockets all belong to the

ancient history of forecasting. And yet

the great social objectives are still with

us. World peace, universal prosperity,

the reign of law, the brotherhood of

man-these aspirations make up the

unfinished business of the human race.

And these aspirations are central to

many of the issues that emerge from

the forecasting of alternative futures.

To plan is to choose; and in order to

make the best choice, it is essential that

we should know what we want. But

are we certain that the human race

knows what it wants?

FUTURES September 97