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Body Level One
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Body Level Five Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Fellow, Centre for Management Development London Business
School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingImpactofglobaltrendsonautoindustryandindustrialcoa;ngs
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Trends Impact
Other Trends
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Why impact of disruptive events will often be more limited than
many predict
Future Reality Check - biggest driver isEmerging markets impact
on rest worldLarger and smaller scale manufacturing
Impact of green tech and new fuelsFuture of auto industry,
design, ownership4 word phrase - basis of all future success
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Core Message
Long term trends in key areas will create huge growth,
despite
great feelings of uncertainty. Rapid innovation will be needed
to stay ahead and meet demand
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Ins;tu;onalBlindness
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Complexity and scale create risks
and new opportunities
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Agility
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Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
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REALITY CHECK
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Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food, leisure, homes similar, robots, 3D
printing etc
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Robots in Factories only 7% pa 92,000-170,000 2000-2012
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3D scans - 3D printing
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Global Economy
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WGP(%,constantprices)
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VietnamGDP1985-2011
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$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)
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>>$2.4trillion
Reserves
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
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The future is about EMOTION
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EmergingMarkets
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50%
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1 billion will move to cities in 30 years
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People love Cities and Offices
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Numberofvehiclesper100people
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Global car sales 107m by 2020
up from 87m in 2016
Europe / Japan - flatAmerica - recovered
China - 19m to 31m in 7 years
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4LmesasmanycarsonearthifwholeworldhassameownershipasAmerica
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Europe ageing impact 4 couples to produce single great-grand
child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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!52
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LARGER SCALE
- InmanyEUnaLons,>70%ofretailspendin
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VW mega platformVWMegaPlaVorm-basisfor1mcars
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World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
With rapid growth of niche manufacturing
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Growing scale in
chemicals industry
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8%wageinflaLoninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
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SMALLER LOCAL
SUPPLIERS
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Shorter global supply chains
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Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of
production but now growing LESS than production
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NearshoringBoom
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts,
green activism
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global
power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Why China will dominate wind power industry 40% EU power = wind
by 2050
Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
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75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014
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EnergyusehashalvedperunitofproducLoninEUchemicalindustry
overlast20years
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Shale gas oversupply so US petrochemical boom
$135bn will be invested soon in 215 new plants
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MakingethyleneinEUcoststwiceasmuch
asinAmerica
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Emerging markets see US /EU petrochemicals as expensive, too
pure
Expect 70-80% active product for 50% price
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>30%energysavingswithgreentech
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Lighter vehicles New Range Rovers are 40% lighter
PlasticsCarbon fibre
Less steel
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NanotechCoaLngs
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Auto Fuel of the Future ?
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30 million acres lost
EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain fuel
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Hydrogen
GimmickorReality
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Problemswithsupply,storage,milesperkgofgas
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FutureofHybridCars
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Whypayfortwoengines?
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GMVolt
Averagedriverusesba_ery82%ofLme
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Meeting full capacity of Tesla new factory will require entire
global output of lithium batteries
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Electric car sales off-target
Germany: 1 million by 2020Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year,
but
factory capacity for 150,000 a year
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> Solar Paint
7 square metres per kilowatt
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FUTURE AUTO
DESIGN
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Auto ParkingFord, Audi, Volvo, Honda
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Drowsy, Drunk, DistractedAlcohol in sweat on gear leaver /
erratic driving Nissan
LED detection of closed eyes University of LeicesterHead not
facing road Audi
Detection heart problem (ECG from steering wheel) Nippon Medical
School
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Boominconnectedcarsales
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GM 4G
AllnewGMcarsinUS/Canadawith4G
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Vehicletrainssave30%offuel
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legalliabilityinaccidents?
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Expectnewpa_ernsofcarownership
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Milesdrivenby20-30yearoldsdown8%in20yearsacrossAmerica(30%downin10yearsinUK)
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113
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Rentbyhour-instantly
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Who owns the driver ? Manufacturers - telcos - breakdown
companies - dealer network - independent garages - leasing
company - software provider - insurer
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Why impact of disruptive events will often be more limited than
many predictReality Check for every business
The most important driver of the futureHow Digital will change
what we are
Emerging markets impact on rest worldFuture of auto industry and
manufacturing4 word phrase - basis of all future success
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LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAcLvists
Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutotheendsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,
investinyourbusinessesandmayevenbewillingtoworkforyoufornexttonothing
.andthefourwordphraseis.
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BuildingaBe_erWorld
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Core Message
Long term trends in key areas will create huge growth,
despite
great feelings of uncertainty. Rapid innovation will be needed
to stay ahead and meet demand
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Body Level One
Body Level Two
Body Level Three
Body Level Four
Body Level Five
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com@patrickdixon
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Brain Dump
Write down whatever is in your mind - trends - opportunities -
challenges - issues - impact
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Share with Neighbour
Write down whatever is in your mind - trends - opportunities -
challenges - issues - impact
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Share with Neighbour
One key insight / compelling thought
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Share with Neighbour
One key insight / compelling thought
Build your table perspective
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Table share with Room
Capture key insights onto wall Each person votes to create
HEAT MAP
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HEAT MAP
Patterns - Key Insights
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Reflections
Questions / Answers
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Body Level One
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Body Level Five
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com@patrickdixon